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Thread: Carolina, Julia, Ashley, Gracie, Akiko, or Adelina - Who will win the bronze medal ?

  1. #16
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    I really think it will be Julia. She is by far the most consistent, and with the inflated scoring she will FOR SURE receive in Russia she would have a good chance to finish highest of these women even in all clean scenario (Kostner, Sotnikova, or even Wagner might beat her in that scenario, but in Russia I wouldnt be on it).

    I also wouldnt be surprised if Julia wins silver if Mao pushes too hard to try and beat Yu Na for the gold and ends up really messing up. Had the Grand Prix final been in Russia it is quite possible Julia would have won the LP phase atleast (not saying she neccesarily should have, IMO Mao deservedly beat Julia in the LP there even with her triple axel gaffes), and if Mao tries to throw the kitchen sink at Kim in her quest to beat her, she could end up with an even worse skate than the Grand Prix final, while Julia can skate both a better SP and LP than what she did there as well.

  2. #17
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    At this point, it seems Julia's to lose given her consistency, high technical content, and Russian PCS boost. I can see Julia or Wagner or Suzuki spoiling for bronze but that will be dependent on them skating lights out and Julia making errors. If Julia skates like at CoR though, she will likely not make the podium even with the Russian boost (118 with three triples seems hardly worthy of a bronze at the level the field has skated/can skate).

  3. #18
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    I think Julia will really need to win Europeans to boost her chances as a bronze medal contender. So far, her biggest wins to date are some GP golds, a GPF silver, and a Junior Worlds win. That's not enough.

    Carolina, on the other hand, can afford to lose Europeans (but not by too much), IF she shows up in her very best form at the Olympics, and she will still be considered a medal contender.

  4. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by MalloryArcher View Post
    I know of no woman in the past 20+ years who has won an Olympic medal without winning a Worlds medal of some colour first. I could see Julia making a great debut like Sasha Cohen did in 2002 but I as with Sasha I don't think than will translate to anything higher than 4th.
    Correct, the last ladies skater to win an Olympic medal without first winning a Worlds medal was Liz Manley in 1988...coincidentally, she was skating in her home country of Canada for the 1988 Olympics.

  5. #20
    축복, 축도 RABID's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by burntBREAD View Post
    They did like two scores out of ten:the first for scoring potential, second for consistency. So Julia has a 8 in scoring potential and 9 in consistency (both out of 10). Adelina has a 9 in scoring potential but just 4/10 for consistency.
    Oh. Ok, thanks.

  6. #21
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    I don't quite see why Julia is so much better than, say, the other Russian girls or anyone else who skates clean. Is she doing triple triples that others can't do? I've only seen her a couple of times, but I wasn't blown away, and liked some of the other Russian up and comers better. I will say, I loved her spins, though, and appreciated her "age appropriate" programs. But it seemed that her jumps were tiny and she had the same odd axel that Tara Lipinski did, more like she was roller skating.

    Anyway, I think barring a total meltdown, a Russian lady will be on that podium. If there is a meltdown, it will be Carolina.

  7. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by Poodlepal View Post
    I don't quite see why Julia is so much better than, say, the other Russian girls or anyone else who skates clean. Is she doing triple triples that others can't do? I've only seen her a couple of times, but I wasn't blown away, and liked some of the other Russian up and comers better. I will say, I loved her spins, though, and appreciated her "age appropriate" programs. But it seemed that her jumps were tiny and she had the same odd axel that Tara Lipinski did, more like she was roller skating.

    Anyway, I think barring a total meltdown, a Russian lady will be on that podium. If there is a meltdown, it will be Carolina.
    She isnt that much better if the others skate clean. Arguably not better at all. The reason she is in by far the strongest position though is:

    1. She is by far the most likely to actually skate clean, which actually in reality makes her much better on average than skaters with similar scoring potential (people forget how difficult it is to skate clean, especialy under the current code, so someone doing that already gives themselvs a big advantage).

    2. Olympics being on Russian ice mean she it is hugely unlikely she would be beaten by a non Russian who is merely "just as good" or at the same level. In a remotedly close call you expect the Russian will get every benefit of doubt, especialy after COR.

    As for the other Russians the only one who is as good or better skating cleanly anyway is Sotnikova. Anna P. is not at Julia's level yet, and Tuktamysheva isnt a better skater at this point even on a good day.

  8. #23
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    ^ Stop the presses, I actually agree with you entirely!

  9. #24
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    Who will win the bronze medal? Most likely one of these 3: Ashley, Julia or Caro. It all depends on how well they perform (obviously). Ashley is going to give her all, Julia is probably going to skate clean or relatively clean (unless she can't deal with home-ice pressure), Caro is going to get big PCS if she skates relatively clean. I would say if all three of them went clean, Julia would probably win because not only its in Russia, but she's going to have huge TES as well.

    Other than those 3, I honestly can't see anyone else medalling. Adelina probably has a chance if she skates clean.

  10. #25
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    If Julia wins Europeans, and skates 2 clean programs at Sochi, I predict she'll win gold. (Location will weigh heavily!)

  11. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eddie Lee View Post
    If Julia wins Europeans, and skates 2 clean programs at Sochi, I predict she'll win gold. (Location will weigh heavily!)
    Even against a clean Asada or Kim? I know Russia has the most billionaires on earth but even that kind of inflation is something they can't afford.

  12. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by Krislite View Post
    Even against a clean Asada or Kim? I know Russia has the most billionaires on earth but even that kind of inflation is something they can't afford.
    She will not beat a clean Mao or Yuna. No way.

  13. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nadia01 View Post
    She will not beat a clean Mao or Yuna. No way.
    True that. As we have seen, a relatively clean Mao and Kim would score well into the 200's whereas a clean Julia would barely breach it.

  14. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    True that. As we have seen, a relatively clean Mao and Kim would score well into the 200's whereas a clean Julia would barely breach it.
    I actually think that if Julia wins Europeans & goes clean in Sochi, she can get the bronze, provided that CaroK has at least 2 major errors total (in short and/or long).

  15. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nadia01 View Post
    I actually think that if Julia wins Europeans & goes clean in Sochi, she can get the bronze, provided that CaroK has at least 2 major errors total (in short and/or long).
    If Julia goes clean in Sochi a medal will be hers, I'm almost certain of it. Which is great considering not many skaters have maxed out content like she does. I just can't wait for the world to see those marvellous spins of hers and lose their minds as to what they thought was possible on skates.

    That's actually my biggest hope this Olympics ... That skaters don't play it safe and we see some technically brilliant performances with unprecedented difficulty. That's what the sport needs to show the world. Shizuoka and Evan were lovely but everyone getting an Olympic medal should have attempted a 3-3 (3A in Mao's case) in both programs for the ladies & 1 quad in the SP and 2 quads in the LP for the men.

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