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Thread: Carolina, Julia, Ashley, Gracie, Akiko, or Adelina - Who will win the bronze medal ?

  1. #31
    Custom Title Sochi_2014's Avatar
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    Does Russia just have two spots for the ladies at Europeans too? And if so, are they going to send the two that make the Olympic team?

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    I would say Kostner would still be the fave ; the judges seem to want to give it to her but Mao is a wildcard. She could challenge Yuna but she could fall off the podium (underrotate actually). Carolina followed by Wagner and then Julia. I f Julia gets inspired andKostner and Wagner aren't on Julia could steal a bronze imho. Adelina has to struggle to get on the Russian team and Gracie hasn't been very impressive in her programs so far.

  3. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sochi_2014 View Post
    Does Russia just have two spots for the ladies at Europeans too? And if so, are they going to send the two that make the Olympic team?
    I believe they have 3 at least? This will surely include the ones who will be ultimately on the Olympic team (although Julia could probably afford to skip Euros if she wins Russians, not that there is any good reason for her to since she will be a heavy favourite). The Olympic team will be set for sure after Euros.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    I believe they have 3 at least? This will surely include the ones who will be ultimately on the Olympic team (although Julia could probably afford to skip Euros if she wins Russians, not that there is any good reason for her to since she will be a heavy favourite). The Olympic team will be set for sure after Euros.
    I disagree, I don't think Julia can afford to skip Euros if she wins Russians. She needs that on her resume. As flukish as Sarah Hughes's OGM was, she did have a world bronze medal. I don't think Russian support is enough to overcome Julia's lack of senior international wins by itself. If Julia wins Euros, that will do a lot for her reputation.

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    If Julia, Radianova, and Sotnikova are the top 3 at Nationals, the Olympic team will be officialy set anyway. There is no way Julia will choose to skip Europeans. She has a real shot to win it this year, and that is a prestigious title, and would help her greatly going into the games.

  6. #36
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    I don't think Gracie or really Adelina are in the hunt for bronze, not even Akiko so much. Being in Russia could maybe help Adelina but I just don't see it happening for her this season. Julia, Caro, and Ashley are the 3 really in the hunt, I'd be surprised if bronze didn't go to one of those 3.

  7. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by silverlake22 View Post
    I don't think Gracie or really Adelina are in the hunt for bronze, not even Akiko so much. Being in Russia could maybe help Adelina but I just don't see it happening for her this season. Julia, Caro, and Ashley are the 3 really in the hunt, I'd be surprised if bronze didn't go to one of those 3.

    I agree about Gracie but I don't see why skaters like Akiko or Sotnikova wouldn't be able to compete for a Bronze Medal at Sochi when they staking well.
    And people here a acting like it is already a foregone conclusion that Kim and Mao will win Gold and Silver, which it is IMO clearly not especially if the judges finally will detect Mao's obvious underrotations.

  8. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by David21 View Post
    I agree about Gracie but I don't see why skaters like Akiko or Sotnikova wouldn't be able to compete for a Bronze Medal at Sochi when they staking well.
    And people here a acting like it is already a foregone conclusion that Kim and Mao will win Gold and Silver, which it is IMO clearly not especially if the judges finally will detect Mao's obvious underrotations.
    Mao hasn't skated brilliantly at any of her internationals thus far this season and she's still won all of them handily. I think she may even win gold in Sochi as Kim appears to be a bit rusty ATM. Mao's PCS and GOE will keep her on the medal stand, and very likely in first or 2nd place, even if she does get hit with a few URs.

    Further, Adelina has gone head-to-head with Ashley twice this season and lost to Ashley both times, including at TEB where she had a perfect FS. A perfect FS from Adelina only scored 2 points more than a not so great FS from Ashley, and with her track record and questionable jump technique, I just don't see Adelina putting 2 clean programs together at the Olympics where I think Ashley feasibly could as she usually skates clean or nearly clean. In other words, one clean program from Adelina isn't likely to be enough to get her on the medal stand, and the last time we saw Adelina deliver 2 clean programs in the same competition was like 3 years ago, before puberty, pressure, and the rise of her competition at home all took their toll.

    Akiko was gaining momentum the past couple of seasons but after what happened at Worlds, losing to Radionova at NHK (who did not manage to beat Wagner at GPF despite skating almost perfectly while Ashley was far from her best), and not making the GPF, I think her stock has gone down a bit and she will be marked fairly conservatively at the Olympics because of it. With 2 brilliant skates she could sneak away with a medal, but like Adelina, she rarely puts 2 super solid programs together so I think it might not happen.

    Kostner was my pick for bronze at the start of the season but her injuries and not so great programs have opened up the field a bit now. She withdrew from Nationals, didn't make the GPF, and was beaten by 15 year olds Pogorilaya and Lipnitskaya (with a meltdown in the FS) on the GP, so really, she is a question mark right now.

    Lots of ladies could theoretically challenge for the bronze, but at this point, I think Julia and Ashley are by far the top 2 contenders for that last medal.

  9. #39
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    I have a feeling if Mao and Kim both skate equally okish the judges will go with Kim, even with Maos harder program. Mao would have the base value edge, Kim the GOE and PCS edge, so it would come down to who they want to give it to in that case, and I suspect given that Mao hasnt won a really big event since 2010 now that would be Kim. So even if Kim is still a bit sluggish in Sochi (which I dont think will happen), I dont think Mao wins with her performances of this year so far.

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    I think that Mirai Nagasu have a great chance to win the bronze medal in Sochi.

  11. #41
    Skating is art, if you let it be. Blades of Passion's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    I have a feeling if Mao and Kim both skate equally okish the judges will go with Kim, even with Maos harder program.
    ISU doesn't like how Yu-Na has skimped out on events the past quad. Mao has shown up for everything, despite trying to rework technique and her mom dying. Plus, Japan needs a big win to keep ice skating fans buying tickets and she is their best hope.

  12. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blades of Passion View Post
    ISU doesn't like how Yu-Na has skimped out on events the past quad. Mao has shown up for everything, despite trying to rework technique and her mom dying. Plus, Japan needs a big win to keep ice skating fans buying tickets and she is their best hope.
    But they gave her huge scores at WC last year, they always do. It does not seem to have hurt her much-being absent.

  13. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blades of Passion View Post
    ISU doesn't like how Yu-Na has skimped out on events the past quad. Mao has shown up for everything, despite trying to rework technique and her mom dying. Plus, Japan needs a big win to keep ice skating fans buying tickets and she is their best hope.
    But didn't Yuna win last year? Even with that edge call on her flip in short, she still managed to beat everyone w/ short (and she even skated very early...)

    TBH I'm not certain that Mao can go squeaky clean in Sochi. I think Yuna is capable of doing it (she's done it twice at big comps now) and still do the planned layout (no doubling triples to not fall, etc.).

  14. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nadia01 View Post
    But didn't Yuna win last year? Even with that edge call on her flip in short, she still managed to beat everyone w/ short (and she even skated very early...)

    TBH I'm not certain that Mao can go squeaky clean in Sochi. I think Yuna is capable of doing it (she's done it twice at big comps now) and still do the planned layout (no doubling triples to not fall, etc.).
    If they skate more or less like last season's Worlds Yuna will of course win by a landslide. She won because she was indisputably the best at that event. I suspect Blades might be thinking more of a scenario like 2011 Worlds, where Miki and Yuna were very closely scored as Yuna made some mistakes. Yuna skipped all but Worlds that season. The judges gave the title to Miki.

    She did participate at Worlds last season, before Sochi, so I don't know how much the ISU might still begrudge her for missing out recently. The fact that they have a returning ladies Olympic champion at all is quite rare (hasn't happened since Witt), so I hope at least some of the judges keep it in perspective. But I do think she can afford fewer mistakes this time around compared to Vancouver. She's probably well aware of that.

  15. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    Mao hasnt won a really big event since 2010
    Uh, she won the GPF the past 2 years. Other than Worlds there have been no bigger events since 2010 (unless you want to count 4CC, which she won last year).

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