The heck with it. I'm going to crawl all the way out there on a limb. Here is my very, very early prediction in a nutshell:
-Yuna is going to score anywhere between 210-230 total in Sochi. She is going to win OGM. The lower end of the range gives her a cushion of 1 or 2 mistakes. It also corresponds to the lower end of the range for her Big Ticket Wins (2009 Worlds). The upper end represents the very best we have seen her execute in recent years, plus PCS in the SP more in line with her peak LP (230 is approximately the scoring level of her Vancouver OGM winning performances, which represents the upper range of her Big Ticket Wins).
For those already hinting at her demise based on her "rusty" first outing this year at Golden Spin, I will merely point out that it tracks almost identically, in terms of score, with her debut performance at NRW last year. And we know all know how last season ended up. There were quite a few people who should have been in line to eat crow after Fake London, although it seems to me that some chose to scamper off and lay low for a while rather than enjoy that peculiar dish, only to saunter back with a quite admirable nonchalance at a later date to engage in more of the same...
Moreover, this imperfect performance by Yuna (204-ish) is already at a scoring level that can contend for Olympic gold, given the demonstrated scoring ranges of the top ladies competitors this year. The season scoring ranges for the GPF ladies are, in all likelihood, already reflective of something close to their performance peaks; Yuna, meanwhile, still has significant room to improve.
-Mao will score anywhere between 190 and 210, and will win the OSM. 210 is a score she has not yet achieved. In her entire career. Her best scoring performances in recent years have been at the Vancouver Olympics (around 205), this year's SA (around 205), NHK this year (around 207), and GPF this year (around 204). Contrary to some declarations in this thread, this season's performances represent, in fact, her peak results, her demonstrated scoring ceiling. 190, give or take, is the level that Mao shows when she is a notch below her peak.
"Regression to the Mean" is a powerful concept in both statistics and in human affairs, and I see no reason to believe that it will not continue to operate at Sochi. To assume that Mao can significantly improve on her scores, beyond 210, is to assume a performance set that has not yet been seen, at this, the tail-end of her career.
-I've said before that IMO the fight for bronze is going to be the battle royale on the ladies side, with my picks for likely contenders being Caro, Julia, and Ashley. But I'm not even wholly confident of this somewhat broad prediction; this is because there are something like a dozen women who could score somewhere between 185-200 if they skate well. The slope of the bell-shaped curve starts to increase sharply at this level.
I hope all the skaters are fit and healthy for Sochi, and we can all see how we did in our saying of sooth.