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Thread: US Chances in Sochi

  1. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by wordsworthgirl View Post
    I disagree that our men have zero/no chance at medaling. A clean (or almost clean) Rippon or Abbott would definitely be medal contenders if others falter- and some certainly will. Rippon is loved by the intl judges and Abbott giving a spectacular performance =s Paul Wylie-esque. The intl judges know that Jeremy could have been a world champion/Olympic medalist if he'd been more consistent. Abbott's performance at 2010 Nationals would have put him on the Olympic podium in 2010 and probably have made him the OGM- 8 triples and a quad. Even Jason Brown has an outside chance at a bronze. The judges think very highly of Rippon, Abbott, and Brown as complete skaters and unique talents. I don't think Max Aaron can even with a semi-clean performance, however.
    I agree to a point with wordsworthgirl - however you might need something like what happened in the past a plane crash or an epidemic because there are so many stronger medal contenders than the Americans - Hanyu, Chan, Takhashim Machida, Fernandez, Ten, Verner, Brezina, Yan and even Reynolds all realisticlly could beat any American man. Now the question is do the American boys have a better chance of medalling or naking the top ten? That realy is the question.

  2. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sochi_2014 View Post
    The one thing that I seriously am worried about though is the ladies keeping 3 spots for next year. I am confident that Ashley and Gracie will place respectively well, but I just hope and pray that whoever our 3rd lady is, that she can place well. Are spots for the next year in an Olympic year determined at the Olympics or Worlds? If they are decided at Worlds, that would be better for team USA, seeing as some of the big whigs might not compete at Worlds, so the USA would have the opportunity to move up a couple of spots.
    Worlds. So yes, the U.S. women look good to keep three spots because I doubt Carolina or Yuna will be there, so that's two less folks to deal with. Russia also looks good to gain a third spot back. Korea will likely lose one or two spots depending on how their young skaters do.

    Quote Originally Posted by Jedi View Post
    I agree to a point with wordsworthgirl - however you might need something like what happened in the past a plane crash or an epidemic because there are so many stronger medal contenders than the Americans - Hanyu, Chan, Takhashim Machida, Fernandez, Ten, Verner, Brezina, Yan and even Reynolds all realisticlly could beat any American man. Now the question is do the American boys have a better chance of medalling or naking the top ten? That realy is the question.
    I think a U.S. Man will at least make the Top 10 easily. I honestly don't know the last time (or even if we ever had) no U.S. man in the top 10. As for medaling, I'd say super long shot, but I think on a good day we can get a U.S. Man to sneak into the top 5.

  3. #33
    I'm gonna Customize the CRAP out of this Title!!! Frenchie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mrs. P View Post
    I honestly don't know the last time (or even if we ever had) no U.S. man in the top 10
    That was at the 1936 Olympics in Garmisch-Partenkirchen. Robin Lee finished 12th, Erle Reiter 13th and George Hill 22nd (as well as 5th in Pairs).
    After that the OGs were cancelled due to WWII in 1940 and 1944.
    And in 1948 began the Dick Button Era

  4. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by Frenchie View Post
    That was at the 1936 Olympics in Garmisch-Partenkirchen. Robin Lee finished 12th, Erle Reiter 13th and George Hill 22nd (as well as 5th in Pairs).
    After that the OGs were cancelled due to WWII in 1940 and 1944.
    And in 1948 began the Dick Button Era
    Wow that's a long time ago. Here's hoping that streak of U.S. men in the Top 10 at the Olympics can last four more years.

  5. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jedi View Post
    I agree to a point with wordsworthgirl - however you might need something like what happened in the past a plane crash or an epidemic because there are so many stronger medal contenders than the Americans - Hanyu, Chan, Takhashim Machida, Fernandez, Ten, Verner, Brezina, Yan and even Reynolds all realisticlly could beat any American man. Now the question is do the American boys have a better chance of medalling or naking the top ten? That realy is the question.
    I agree with this. I think Rippon, Abbott, or Aaron could potentially medal. They would need pristine clean skates and a lot of help from the top competitors. I am a huge fan of Abbott's and hope he has his Paul Wylie moment in Sochi- so much talent and such mediocre results internationally. I think Rippon is well known and well liked by the int'l judges such that he also has an outside chance. Max Aaron had a better chance of medaling with 3 quads, but it's still possible with a perfect skate and a complete splatfest. I don't think Jason Brown can medal in any circumstance. He gets high component scores, but no man is going to get a whiff of the podium this year with no quad and only 1 triple axel, which seems to be his average performance this year.

    Wagner is our best shot in the ladies'. She can't be feeling great about her chances if she's seen videos of Japanese and Russian Nationals, though. I think that unless she skates a perfect program with a ratified 3-3, she loses to Suzuki, Lipnitskaya, and Sotnikova if those skaters skate as they did at their national championships. I don't think a clean Ashley should lose to clean Julia and Adelina, but the Olympics are in Russia.

    Oh, and I completely forgot about Gracie. She could theoretically medal with completely clean skates and a splatfest. I think her inconsistency is going to hurt her marks this year even if she skates well.

  6. #36
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    I think the US has a better shot of no one making the top then than winning a medal but it depends. If Abbott makes it he could be the new Paul Wylie - of course if he skates badly the judges could wallop him and lower his pcs and he coul even place like 18th.

  7. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by amc987 View Post
    I agree with this. I think Rippon, Abbott, or Aaron could potentially medal. They would need pristine clean skates and a lot of help from the top competitors. I am a huge fan of Abbott's and hope he has his Paul Wylie moment in Sochi- so much talent and such mediocre results internationally. I think Rippon is well known and well liked by the int'l judges such that he also has an outside chance. Max Aaron had a better chance of medaling with 3 quads, but it's still possible with a perfect skate and a complete splatfest. I don't think Jason Brown can medal in any circumstance. He gets high component scores, but no man is going to get a whiff of the podium this year with no quad and only 1 triple axel, which seems to be his average performance this year.

    Wagner is our best shot in the ladies'. She can't be feeling great about her chances if she's seen videos of Japanese and Russian Nationals, though. I think that unless she skates a perfect program with a ratified 3-3, she loses to Suzuki, Lipnitskaya, and Sotnikova if those skaters skate as they did at their national championships. I don't think a clean Ashley should lose to clean Julia and Adelina, but the Olympics are in Russia.

    Oh, and I completely forgot about Gracie. She could theoretically medal with completely clean skates and a splatfest. I think her inconsistency is going to hurt her marks this year even if she skates well.
    Thanks for backing up my belief that great performances by the US men could mean medals. I too hope Jeremy can finally get the Olympic or World medal he so richly deserves. He has won the Grand Prix Final, won many medals on the Grand Prix circuit, and may be the most talented US man ever to never medal at Worlds/Olympics. Johnny Weir with only one World/Olympic medal is another under-achiever. I so hope Jeremy can have that Paul Wylie moment, be it at Olympics or Worlds this year. and I totally agree re Rippon's high standing in the eyes of the judges.

    IF Brown skates clean, with two triple axels, I do think he can medal if others falter. Many of the "contenders" mentioned have been very off/weak this season and/or don't have good programs- Fernandez, Ten, Han. and Reynolds has been badly injured plus Takahashi, as much as I love him and want him to medal, is also coming off injury. At this point, I think Hanyu and Chan are a lock for gold/silver in some order, and the strongest contenders for bronze based on the overall season, health, quality of programs are Machida and Rippon. A clean Abbott would beat Machida, I think.

  8. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jedi View Post
    I think the US has a better shot of no one making the top then than winning a medal but it depends. If Abbott makes it he could be the new Paul Wylie - of course if he skates badly the judges could wallop him and lower his pcs and he coul even place like 18th.
    Totally agree with you on this. Jeremy could be the star of the Olympics- comeback boy- or he could end up very low down. He is undermarked of late because people are so frustrated with his repeatedly coming apart under pressure.

  9. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by wordsworthgirl View Post
    Thanks for backing up my belief that great performances by the US men could mean medals. I too hope Jeremy can finally get the Olympic or World medal he so richly deserves. He has won the Grand Prix Final, won many medals on the Grand Prix circuit, and may be the most talented US man ever to never medal at Worlds/Olympics. Johnny Weir with only one World/Olympic medal is another under-achiever. I so hope Jeremy can have that Paul Wylie moment, be it at Olympics or Worlds this year. and I totally agree re Rippon's high standing in the eyes of the judges.

    IF Brown skates clean, with two triple axels, I do think he can medal if others falter. Many of the "contenders" mentioned have been very off/weak this season and/or don't have good programs- Fernandez, Ten, Han. and Reynolds has been badly injured plus Takahashi, as much as I love him and want him to medal, is also coming off injury. At this point, I think Hanyu and Chan are a lock for gold/silver in some order, and the strongest contenders for bronze based on the overall season, health, quality of programs are Machida and Rippon. A clean Abbott would beat Machida, I think.
    I would love to see Jeremy succeed in competition but for him it seems impossible lately. I mean he's so inconsistent even more so than back in the days. And he would need 4 close to perfect programs to be even considered for olympic medal, 2 at nationals and 2 even more perfect at the oly's. But I'll keep my fingers crossed for him.

  10. #40
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    Agreed, our qualification system is just fine.

    I'm truly disappointed in the state of our Senior Men.
    If Ashley can hold it together, she has an outside shot at a medal.

    What needs to change is our Pairs program. We've got to get it together there. We need to look at how we turned around the dance program, and do the same with pairs. We've got to keep these pairs together longer!

  11. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by tashsparkles View Post
    Agreed, our qualification system is just fine.

    I'm truly disappointed in the state of our Senior Men.
    If Ashley can hold it together, she has an outside shot at a medal.

    What needs to change is our Pairs program. We've got to get it together there. We need to look at how we turned around the dance program, and do the same with pairs. We've got to keep these pairs together longer!
    True but two years isn't a long time to be together lol.

  12. #42
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    Welcome, tashsparkles! Thanks for joining us. Post often, post long!

  13. #43
    Beliver in Sasha's Perfect Program Tinymavy15's Avatar
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    Gracie has yet to prove she can control her nerves under pressure. IF she makes the team I think top ten would be an appropriate goal for this year.

    Ashley will need to be perfect, we have seen this from her earlier in the year but of she starts over thinking it and wanting it too badly the baby Russians will seize their chance. I expect a Russian girl on the podium, which suggests that Mao must falter incredibly. Yu-na is a lock for a medal.

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