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Thread: Who Will Be The Ladies " Underdog" at the Olympics?

  1. #31
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    Maybe the perfect underdog would be someone who's currently out of the Olympics altogether. A Russian or Japanese alternate (Anna P?) getting a chance because of injury or Finland getting a leftover spot and Korpi making a miraculous recovery.

  2. #32
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    I would consider Caro, Suzuki, Adelina, Julia and Ashley underdogs for Gold or Silver, although any of them winning Bronze would not be surprising at all.

    Gold, Murukami and Osmond would be underdogs for any medal because that result would surprise me.

  3. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    How things change. Before the season Kostner was being touted a strong gold hopeful. She was being picked as a strong contender than Mao. Now she is just another bronze contender.
    After Japanese Nationals, Mao's stock has fallen slightly too. During the GP circuit everyone assumed Mao would improve all the way up to Sochi but now with this talk of her back pain issues that is in doubt as well.

  4. #34
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    It's really too bad Li Zijunn was injured and then ill, as she was on track for being a contender. I'm glad to see she's back on ice now, and seems to be getting her jumps back http://instagram.com/p/in7isozX87/

    If she can get back in shape in a matter of weeks, could she be a dark horse?

  5. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by Layfan View Post
    Just read this NYTIMES story that was recommended in the Mao Asada/triple axel threat. Tara has offered a pretty good answer for this thread:

    “Yu-na has become a megastar,” said Tara Lipinski, the 1998 Olympic champion. “She has that Olympic title and that puts them in a slightly different category than they were in before. Now, Mao is a bit of an underdog, pushing to grab that medal. Yu-na has only gotten more confident.”
    Except to call Mao an underdog to Yuna is like calling Microsoft/Bill Gates an underdog to Apple/Steve Jobs. Ridiculous!


    Quote Originally Posted by Matilda View Post
    It's really too bad Li Zijunn was injured and then ill, as she was on track for being a contender. I'm glad to see she's back on ice now, and seems to be getting her jumps back http://instagram.com/p/in7isozX87/

    If she can get back in shape in a matter of weeks, could she be a dark horse?
    Yes I posted some updates on her Fan thread in the Fan fest part of the forum. Consider she has had a horrible time this season recovering from series of illness and growth spurt, plus a bit uncertain about the coaching situation, I don't think LiMinZhu was even listed as a coach anymore.... I'd say she is the biggest under dog out of the ladies consider she was one of the most promising young lady's last season. Consider how strong all the Russian youngsters are this season, if she can still finish top 8 (assume she still go to Sochi, she didn't respond to that question today) imo that'd be a stunning finish! It will raise her stock considerably among the Asian ladies of the next quad.

    XiangFuzi posted more vids there.

    A video of FS practice (divided into three parts)was posted on weibo this afternoon. Zijun landed all the jumps(3F3T, 2A3T,3Lz,3S2lo2lo,3F,3lo,2A) and looked faster than ever.

    And Zijun said: "This video is sent to all people who care about me. I want to tell you, though in sick, I did not give up, has been working hard in silence!"

    http://v.youku.com/v...U2MDI2Mjk2.html
    http://v.youku.com/v...U2MDI2Nzg0.html
    http://v.youku.com/v...U2MDI2ODUy.html

    So glad to see these videos! This is the best New Year's gift for Zijun's fans like me.

  6. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by LiamForeman View Post
    It seems that Yuna Kim is solid as a rock, so she's a lock for gold. As for the medalists, I put this in another thread, but I'll give silver to Lipnitskaia and bronze to Wagner. These are two women who have the eye of the tiger. That's my hope. Actually I hope JuLip takes gold but I doubt it. I want to see the fighters win. Not the pampered princesses with benefit of PCS. *puke*
    This. As an American I'm obviously gonna root for an American to get on the podium and I'm really hoping it's Ashley (I think Gracie will be more of a factor later). I also agree that Julia is a fighter and that makes me root for her. I also find her Schindler's List program interesting. I think her teammate Sotnikova (assuming those are the 2 Russian women chosen to go) could be in the mix if she skates clean. I'm not sure whether a "home field advantage" will help the Russians, or if the pressure will be too much for them, especially Julia whose only senior championship experience prior to the olympics will be Europeans.

    Added: I had previously thought Mao would challenge for gold, but after Japanese nationals, I'm thinking the pressure might be getting to her. I thought some of her early scores this season were a little generous considering her 3A attempts but I thought maybe the judges were setting her up to challenge Kim. However after the Golden Spin, I think the judges might be sending the message that no one is going to beat Kim for the gold.

  7. #37
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    Akiko, Ashley... those are the two that I think could shake things up drastically - but all of the stars have to align just so.

  8. #38
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    Ashley, Akiko, and Gracie.

    Why Gracie? Because, as was stated before, no one actually EXPECTS her to win anything. She hasn't even competed since November, and I can only hope that Frank Carroll is working some calming magic on her. (I do like her new SP. A big improvement on the last one, IMO.) But does Gracie have the chops for a medal? I'd say yes.

    Though I understand why, it pains me that Julia is considered an outside threat for a medal. Other than her rock-solid consistency, which is remarkable in one so young, her skating is just not my cup of tea. I'm raising the roof for Adelina!

    (Also, first post in quite a while. What'd I miss? )

  9. #39
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    Akiko, Ashley, Gracie, and maybe Adelina and reading this thread made me miss Li even more I hope she's healthy again and comes back soon I miss her terribly

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gigi13 View Post
    Akiko, Ashley, Gracie, and maybe Adelina and reading this thread made me miss Li even more I hope she's healthy again and comes back soon I miss her terribly
    YuNa is the "odds on favorite", Mao is "even money", Carolina is the "dark horse", Akiko and Julia are the "upsets", Ashley is the "underdog", Adelina (only because she is the only other Russian) is the "long shot".

  11. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gigi13 View Post
    Akiko, Ashley, Gracie, and maybe Adelina and reading this thread made me miss Li even more I hope she's healthy again and comes back soon I miss her terribly
    By the way somewhere in these forums today someone posted Li practicing in China. She looked pretty good so... chin up!

  12. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    Julia actually seems like a favorite to medal. I think if I were making betting odds she would be my best bet for the podium along with Kim and Asada now, so it is almost hard to call her an underdog. I guess after losing the GPF decisively to a faulty Mao and losing Russian Nationals to Adelina she is a bit more an underdog than before now. Europeans will tell us alot.
    Odds of winning gold, my take pre-US Nats, pre-KNats, pre-Euros:

    Kim 1:999382 (no black marks against her like Asada's Nats FS, only skater to get 145+ internationally)
    Asada 7:1 (despite stumbles, still 2nd favorite, clean skate looks less and less likely)
    Lipnitskaya 8:1 (closing in on Asada)
    Kostner 10:1 (big question mark due to injury and inconsistency even when uninjured)
    Sotnikova 15:1 (if she magically skates clean, will leapfrog over several others)
    Wagner 20:1 (never clean this season)
    Suzuki 20:1 (gets low marks despite being more likely to skate clean than Wagner)
    Gracie 45:1 (maybe she will change my mind at US Nats)
    Li 65:1 (hopefully she does well but she's Chinese, won't get any breaks)
    Murakami 80:1 (mule kick kills her worse than Nakano's wrap)
    American lady #3 1000:1 (never happening)
    Osmond 549760:1 (injuries, inconsistent, never was a huge standout, and skating in Russia not Canada)
    Hae-jin Kim 10^26:1 (Korean lady #2, that has to count for something)

  13. #43
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    I think you will be proven right. Very funny way of providing predictions!

    Quote Originally Posted by CarneAsada View Post
    Odds of winning gold, my take pre-US Nats, pre-KNats, pre-Euros:

    Kim 1:999382 (no black marks against her like Asada's Nats FS, only skater to get 145+ internationally)
    Asada 7:1 (despite stumbles, still 2nd favorite, clean skate looks less and less likely)
    Lipnitskaya 8:1 (closing in on Asada)
    Kostner 10:1 (big question mark due to injury and inconsistency even when uninjured)
    Sotnikova 15:1 (if she magically skates clean, will leapfrog over several others)
    Wagner 20:1 (never clean this season)
    Suzuki 20:1 (gets low marks despite being more likely to skate clean than Wagner)
    Gracie 45:1 (maybe she will change my mind at US Nats)
    Li 65:1 (hopefully she does well but she's Chinese, won't get any breaks)
    Murakami 80:1 (mule kick kills her worse than Nakano's wrap)
    American lady #3 1000:1 (never happening)
    Osmond 549760:1 (injuries, inconsistent, never was a huge standout, and skating in Russia not Canada)
    Hae-jin Kim 10^26:1 (Korean lady #2, that has to count for something)

  14. #44
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    It will be Akiko. She's old and a sentimental favorite. She's definitely unlikely to skate cleanly and even if she does, her programs aren't as technically sophisticated or difficult as her main competition. However, if the other ladies fall apart (very likely for Sotnikova, possibly Mao and definitely Gracie), then she has a real chance at the podium. I hope she makes it.

  15. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by mskater93 View Post
    But Gold has been inconsistent, so no one has expectations for her AT ALL - that to me makes her an underdog.
    Yes, Gold has been fraught with inconsistencies, but she's only in her second year as a senior skater. When she skates at the top of her game, she is rewarded. A sixth place for a new senior skater at World's cannot be dismissed. While I believe Gracie will likely place in top-ten at Olympics, I believe that when one considers her speed, her spins, the height, attack, and ice coverage of her jumps, she could medal with error-free short and long programs. She 's exciting and a stunning beauty on ice. Yes, I'm a Gracie fan. (As someone mentioned in an earlier thread, I hope that Frank does not overly refine Gracie's exuberance.) For all of the buzz about a Sotnikova gold (or medal of some color), one must not overlook the fact that Gracie outplaced her at World's last season. And Gracie beat Ashley's score in the LP at last year's National's. Olympics seem to always produce surprises. I think we're in for some in Sochi!

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