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Thread: Who Will Be The Ladies " Underdog" at the Olympics?

  1. #46
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    Ashley, Akiko, and Gracie.

    Why Gracie? Because, as was stated before, no one actually EXPECTS her to win anything. She hasn't even competed since November, and I can only hope that Frank Carroll is working some calming magic on her. (I do like her new SP. A big improvement on the last one, IMO.) But does Gracie have the chops for a medal? I'd say yes.

    Though I understand why, it pains me that Julia is considered an outside threat for a medal. Other than her rock-solid consistency, which is remarkable in one so young, her skating is just not my cup of tea. I'm raising the roof for Adelina!

    (Also, first post in quite a while. What'd I miss? )

  2. #47
    ♔Princess Li Zijun♔ Gigi13's Avatar
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    Akiko, Ashley, Gracie, and maybe Adelina and reading this thread made me miss Li even more I hope she's healthy again and comes back soon I miss her terribly

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    Quote Originally Posted by ForeverFish View Post
    Ashley, Akiko, and Gracie.

    Why Gracie? Because, as was stated before, no one actually EXPECTS her to win anything. She hasn't even competed since November, and I can only hope that Frank Carroll is working some calming magic on her. (I do like her new SP. A big improvement on the last one, IMO.) But does Gracie have the chops for a medal? I'd say yes.

    Though I understand why, it pains me that Julia is considered an outside threat for a medal. Other than her rock-solid consistency, which is remarkable in one so young, her skating is just not my cup of tea. I'm raising the roof for Adelina!

    (Also, first post in quite a while. What'd I miss? )
    Julia actually seems like a favorite to medal. I think if I were making betting odds she would be my best bet for the podium along with Kim and Asada now, so it is almost hard to call her an underdog. I guess after losing the GPF decisively to a faulty Mao and losing Russian Nationals to Adelina she is a bit more an underdog than before now. Europeans will tell us alot.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gigi13 View Post
    Akiko, Ashley, Gracie, and maybe Adelina and reading this thread made me miss Li even more I hope she's healthy again and comes back soon I miss her terribly
    YuNa is the "odds on favorite", Mao is "even money", Carolina is the "dark horse", Akiko and Julia are the "upsets", Ashley is the "underdog", Adelina (only because she is the only other Russian) is the "long shot".

  5. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gigi13 View Post
    Akiko, Ashley, Gracie, and maybe Adelina and reading this thread made me miss Li even more I hope she's healthy again and comes back soon I miss her terribly
    By the way somewhere in these forums today someone posted Li practicing in China. She looked pretty good so... chin up!

  6. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    Julia actually seems like a favorite to medal. I think if I were making betting odds she would be my best bet for the podium along with Kim and Asada now, so it is almost hard to call her an underdog. I guess after losing the GPF decisively to a faulty Mao and losing Russian Nationals to Adelina she is a bit more an underdog than before now. Europeans will tell us alot.
    Odds of winning gold, my take pre-US Nats, pre-KNats, pre-Euros:

    Kim 1:999382 (no black marks against her like Asada's Nats FS, only skater to get 145+ internationally)
    Asada 7:1 (despite stumbles, still 2nd favorite, clean skate looks less and less likely)
    Lipnitskaya 8:1 (closing in on Asada)
    Kostner 10:1 (big question mark due to injury and inconsistency even when uninjured)
    Sotnikova 15:1 (if she magically skates clean, will leapfrog over several others)
    Wagner 20:1 (never clean this season)
    Suzuki 20:1 (gets low marks despite being more likely to skate clean than Wagner)
    Gracie 45:1 (maybe she will change my mind at US Nats)
    Li 65:1 (hopefully she does well but she's Chinese, won't get any breaks)
    Murakami 80:1 (mule kick kills her worse than Nakano's wrap)
    American lady #3 1000:1 (never happening)
    Osmond 549760:1 (injuries, inconsistent, never was a huge standout, and skating in Russia not Canada)
    Hae-jin Kim 10^26:1 (Korean lady #2, that has to count for something)

  7. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by CarneAsada View Post
    Odds of winning gold, my take pre-US Nats, pre-KNats, pre-Euros:

    Kim 1:999382 (no black marks against her like Asada's Nats FS, only skater to get 145+ internationally)
    Asada 7:1 (despite stumbles, still 2nd favorite, clean skate looks less and less likely)
    Lipnitskaya 8:1 (closing in on Asada)
    Kostner 10:1 (big question mark due to injury and inconsistency even when uninjured)
    Sotnikova 15:1 (if she magically skates clean, will leapfrog over several others)
    Wagner 20:1 (never clean this season)
    Suzuki 20:1 (gets low marks despite being more likely to skate clean than Wagner)
    Gracie 45:1 (maybe she will change my mind at US Nats)
    Li 65:1 (hopefully she does well but she's Chinese, won't get any breaks)
    Murakami 80:1 (mule kick kills her worse than Nakano's wrap)
    American lady #3 1000:1 (never happening)
    Osmond 549760:1 (injuries, inconsistent, never was a huge standout, and skating in Russia not Canada)
    Hae-jin Kim 10^26:1 (Korean lady #2, that has to count for something)
    Those are good and in some cases funny. The only change I would make is I think Murakami has a better shot than Li now. I think Murakami also has a better shot at a medal or good finish than Gold, but a miracle gold would be more likely for Gold than Murakami, and you are talking about gold chances.

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    I think you will be proven right. Very funny way of providing predictions!

    Quote Originally Posted by CarneAsada View Post
    Odds of winning gold, my take pre-US Nats, pre-KNats, pre-Euros:

    Kim 1:999382 (no black marks against her like Asada's Nats FS, only skater to get 145+ internationally)
    Asada 7:1 (despite stumbles, still 2nd favorite, clean skate looks less and less likely)
    Lipnitskaya 8:1 (closing in on Asada)
    Kostner 10:1 (big question mark due to injury and inconsistency even when uninjured)
    Sotnikova 15:1 (if she magically skates clean, will leapfrog over several others)
    Wagner 20:1 (never clean this season)
    Suzuki 20:1 (gets low marks despite being more likely to skate clean than Wagner)
    Gracie 45:1 (maybe she will change my mind at US Nats)
    Li 65:1 (hopefully she does well but she's Chinese, won't get any breaks)
    Murakami 80:1 (mule kick kills her worse than Nakano's wrap)
    American lady #3 1000:1 (never happening)
    Osmond 549760:1 (injuries, inconsistent, never was a huge standout, and skating in Russia not Canada)
    Hae-jin Kim 10^26:1 (Korean lady #2, that has to count for something)

  9. #54
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    It will be Akiko. She's old and a sentimental favorite. She's definitely unlikely to skate cleanly and even if she does, her programs aren't as technically sophisticated or difficult as her main competition. However, if the other ladies fall apart (very likely for Sotnikova, possibly Mao and definitely Gracie), then she has a real chance at the podium. I hope she makes it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by mskater93 View Post
    But Gold has been inconsistent, so no one has expectations for her AT ALL - that to me makes her an underdog.
    Yes, Gold has been fraught with inconsistencies, but she's only in her second year as a senior skater. When she skates at the top of her game, she is rewarded. A sixth place for a new senior skater at World's cannot be dismissed. While I believe Gracie will likely place in top-ten at Olympics, I believe that when one considers her speed, her spins, the height, attack, and ice coverage of her jumps, she could medal with error-free short and long programs. She 's exciting and a stunning beauty on ice. Yes, I'm a Gracie fan. (As someone mentioned in an earlier thread, I hope that Frank does not overly refine Gracie's exuberance.) For all of the buzz about a Sotnikova gold (or medal of some color), one must not overlook the fact that Gracie outplaced her at World's last season. And Gracie beat Ashley's score in the LP at last year's National's. Olympics seem to always produce surprises. I think we're in for some in Sochi!

  11. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    Those are good and in some cases funny. The only change I would make is I think Murakami has a better shot than Li now. I think Murakami also has a better shot at a medal or good finish than Gold, but a miracle gold would be more likely for Gold than Murakami, and you are talking about gold chances.
    I realize that these odds are not quite mathematically sound, but if we want to be nitpicky then I guess Kim's odds are as above only if she is clean (the 1/999383 chance of losing is of course from the combined chances of Asada skating the daylights out of a 7-triple LP with two 3As or the previous 8-triple LP she planned and of Kostner growing wings and landing a 4T-4T combination) and otherwise her odds are approximately 1:1. Murakami vs. Li is an interesting one as Li has recently shown a practice video where she looked quite good, and Li has always had nicer technique.

  12. #57
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    Quote Originally Posted by CarneAsada View Post
    I realize that these odds are not quite mathematically sound, but if we want to be nitpicky then I guess Kim's odds are as above only if she is clean (the 1/999383 chance of losing is of course from the combined chances of Asada skating the daylights out of a 7-triple LP with two 3As or the previous 8-triple LP she planned and of Kostner growing wings and landing a 4T-4T combination) and otherwise her odds are approximately 1:1. Murakami vs. Li is an interesting one as Li has recently shown a practice video where she looked quite good, and Li has always had nicer technique.


    In all seriousness, though, Yuna will be unbeatable if she skates clean -- no ifs, ands, or buts. That scenario would have at least eight ladies (Wagner, Suzuki, Lipnitskaia, Asada, Gold, Sotnikova, Kostner, and Murakami) vying for silver and bronze. I hesitate to include Li until I see her compete again. She skipped her second GP and Chinese Nationals, so if she doesn't go to 4CC or a senior B, the Olympics will be her second competition of the season. Not even Yuna has taken that chance.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ForeverFish View Post
    In all seriousness, though, Yuna will be unbeatable if she skates clean -- no ifs, ands, or buts. That scenario would have at least eight ladies (Wagner, Suzuki, Lipnitskaia, Asada, Gold, Sotnikova, Kostner, and Murakami) vying for silver and bronze. I hesitate to include Li until I see her compete again. She skipped her second GP and Chinese Nationals, so if she doesn't go to 4CC or a senior B, the Olympics will be her second competition of the season. Not even Yuna has taken that chance.
    I've said it before and I'll say it again. Mao now has the program layouts to beat Yuna if and only if she can skate them perfectly clean, no underrotations, all positive GOE. If she is absolutely perfect, she can break even with Yuna in the SP and she can overcome a 3 PCS disadvantage in the long even with Yuna's 2013 Worlds LP GOE. Putting a 6-triple program no matter what quality behind something of that caliber would just look too rotten for the judges to do it IMO. But of course, those odds are truly 999382:1 and one might as well bet on Carolina Kostner sprouting wings and flying to the moon before coming down to sprinkle us with moon cheese and landing a quad-quad. However, I include the possibility for completeness and my own amusement (just imagine the reaction of this forum if Mao Asada, Carolina Kostner, and Adelina Sotnikova skated perfectly in both segments - I know I'd be going ).

    Li has released a practice video where she looks quite nice and her jumps were all there. She might not be in condition to do it at Sochi, but she hasn't lost her technique.

  14. #59
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    Quote Originally Posted by CarneAsada View Post
    Odds of winning gold, my take pre-US Nats, pre-KNats, pre-Euros:

    Kim 1:999382 (no black marks against her like Asada's Nats FS, only skater to get 145+ internationally)
    Asada 7:1 (despite stumbles, still 2nd favorite, clean skate looks less and less likely)
    Lipnitskaya 8:1 (closing in on Asada)
    Kostner 10:1 (big question mark due to injury and inconsistency even when uninjured)
    Sotnikova 15:1 (if she magically skates clean, will leapfrog over several others)
    Wagner 20:1 (never clean this season)
    Suzuki 20:1 (gets low marks despite being more likely to skate clean than Wagner)
    Gracie 45:1 (maybe she will change my mind at US Nats)
    Li 65:1 (hopefully she does well but she's Chinese, won't get any breaks)
    Murakami 80:1 (mule kick kills her worse than Nakano's wrap)
    American lady #3 1000:1 (never happening)
    Osmond 549760:1 (injuries, inconsistent, never was a huge standout, and skating in Russia not Canada)
    Hae-jin Kim 10^26:1 (Korean lady #2, that has to count for something)
    where do these numbers come from??

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    Carne is just joking with the numbers. To think Lipnitskaia has almost the same odds as Mao is a bit absurd, Russian ice or not.

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