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Thread: Who Will Be The Ladies " Underdog" at the Olympics?

  1. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    Those are good and in some cases funny. The only change I would make is I think Murakami has a better shot than Li now. I think Murakami also has a better shot at a medal or good finish than Gold, but a miracle gold would be more likely for Gold than Murakami, and you are talking about gold chances.
    I realize that these odds are not quite mathematically sound, but if we want to be nitpicky then I guess Kim's odds are as above only if she is clean (the 1/999383 chance of losing is of course from the combined chances of Asada skating the daylights out of a 7-triple LP with two 3As or the previous 8-triple LP she planned and of Kostner growing wings and landing a 4T-4T combination) and otherwise her odds are approximately 1:1. Murakami vs. Li is an interesting one as Li has recently shown a practice video where she looked quite good, and Li has always had nicer technique.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CarneAsada View Post
    I realize that these odds are not quite mathematically sound, but if we want to be nitpicky then I guess Kim's odds are as above only if she is clean (the 1/999383 chance of losing is of course from the combined chances of Asada skating the daylights out of a 7-triple LP with two 3As or the previous 8-triple LP she planned and of Kostner growing wings and landing a 4T-4T combination) and otherwise her odds are approximately 1:1. Murakami vs. Li is an interesting one as Li has recently shown a practice video where she looked quite good, and Li has always had nicer technique.


    In all seriousness, though, Yuna will be unbeatable if she skates clean -- no ifs, ands, or buts. That scenario would have at least eight ladies (Wagner, Suzuki, Lipnitskaia, Asada, Gold, Sotnikova, Kostner, and Murakami) vying for silver and bronze. I hesitate to include Li until I see her compete again. She skipped her second GP and Chinese Nationals, so if she doesn't go to 4CC or a senior B, the Olympics will be her second competition of the season. Not even Yuna has taken that chance.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ForeverFish View Post
    In all seriousness, though, Yuna will be unbeatable if she skates clean -- no ifs, ands, or buts. That scenario would have at least eight ladies (Wagner, Suzuki, Lipnitskaia, Asada, Gold, Sotnikova, Kostner, and Murakami) vying for silver and bronze. I hesitate to include Li until I see her compete again. She skipped her second GP and Chinese Nationals, so if she doesn't go to 4CC or a senior B, the Olympics will be her second competition of the season. Not even Yuna has taken that chance.
    I've said it before and I'll say it again. Mao now has the program layouts to beat Yuna if and only if she can skate them perfectly clean, no underrotations, all positive GOE. If she is absolutely perfect, she can break even with Yuna in the SP and she can overcome a 3 PCS disadvantage in the long even with Yuna's 2013 Worlds LP GOE. Putting a 6-triple program no matter what quality behind something of that caliber would just look too rotten for the judges to do it IMO. But of course, those odds are truly 999382:1 and one might as well bet on Carolina Kostner sprouting wings and flying to the moon before coming down to sprinkle us with moon cheese and landing a quad-quad. However, I include the possibility for completeness and my own amusement (just imagine the reaction of this forum if Mao Asada, Carolina Kostner, and Adelina Sotnikova skated perfectly in both segments - I know I'd be going ).

    Li has released a practice video where she looks quite nice and her jumps were all there. She might not be in condition to do it at Sochi, but she hasn't lost her technique.

  4. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by CarneAsada View Post
    Odds of winning gold, my take pre-US Nats, pre-KNats, pre-Euros:

    Kim 1:999382 (no black marks against her like Asada's Nats FS, only skater to get 145+ internationally)
    Asada 7:1 (despite stumbles, still 2nd favorite, clean skate looks less and less likely)
    Lipnitskaya 8:1 (closing in on Asada)
    Kostner 10:1 (big question mark due to injury and inconsistency even when uninjured)
    Sotnikova 15:1 (if she magically skates clean, will leapfrog over several others)
    Wagner 20:1 (never clean this season)
    Suzuki 20:1 (gets low marks despite being more likely to skate clean than Wagner)
    Gracie 45:1 (maybe she will change my mind at US Nats)
    Li 65:1 (hopefully she does well but she's Chinese, won't get any breaks)
    Murakami 80:1 (mule kick kills her worse than Nakano's wrap)
    American lady #3 1000:1 (never happening)
    Osmond 549760:1 (injuries, inconsistent, never was a huge standout, and skating in Russia not Canada)
    Hae-jin Kim 10^26:1 (Korean lady #2, that has to count for something)
    where do these numbers come from??

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    Carne is just joking with the numbers. To think Lipnitskaia has almost the same odds as Mao is a bit absurd, Russian ice or not.

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    The real underdog is Carolina Kostner! She has the ability to win it all--if she is prepared mentally and physically. Alas, that doesn't always happen. But judges like her, she has great speed, artistry, and makes a stunning picture on ice.
    Granted that Kim is a shoo-in, but if she has an off day, and Mao fails on her 3-axels, Carolina could snatch the gold with a perfect skate. I must add that I do not consider Julia an underdog. I will not be shocked if she wins...and I repeat that I sense "location" as a contributor to that possibility.

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    People keep saying Yuna is a shoo-in to win but she's due for a bad skate when everything is on the line. All the other Ladies will be peaking at the right time and have been competing all season while Kim will be untested to some degree with only 2 competitions against mediocre skaters for the most part. Yes it worked last year but it's a new season and i just think giving her the gold now is ridiculous. I've seen to many sure things lose in other sports no matter how great they were.

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    Underdog definition:a participant in a fight, conflict, or game who is not expected to win

  9. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jammers View Post
    People keep saying Yuna is a shoo-in to win but she's due for a bad skate when everything is on the line. All the other Ladies will be peaking at the right time and have been competing all season while Kim will be untested to some degree with only 2 competitions against mediocre skaters for the most part. Yes it worked last year but it's a new season and i just think giving her the gold now is ridiculous. I've seen to many sure things lose in other sports no matter how great they were.
    If she brings it (and her bad skates are way less "bad" than most other skaters and are often better than most skaters great skates), she will win gold. Period.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Eddie Lee View Post
    The real underdog is Carolina Kostner! She has the ability to win it all--if she is prepared mentally and physically. Alas, that doesn't always happen. But judges like her, she has great speed, artistry, and makes a stunning picture on ice.
    Granted that Kim is a shoo-in, but if she has an off day, and Mao fails on her 3-axels, Carolina could snatch the gold with a perfect skate. I must add that I do not consider Julia an underdog. I will not be shocked if she wins...and I repeat that I sense "location" as a contributor to that possibility.
    No no no no no.

    I see where you're coming from, but if this actually HAPPENS ...

  11. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jammers View Post
    People keep saying Yuna is a shoo-in to win but she's due for a bad skate when everything is on the line. All the other Ladies will be peaking at the right time and have been competing all season while Kim will be untested to some degree with only 2 competitions against mediocre skaters for the most part. Yes it worked last year but it's a new season and i just think giving her the gold now is ridiculous. I've seen to many sure things lose in other sports no matter how great they were.
    I'm not sure what this means, but maybe that's just because I'm not a superstitious person. Yuna doesn't have everything on the line in Sochi -- at least, not nearly to the extent that she did in Vancouver. She's already an Olympic champion, a two-time World champion, never finished off the podium, known for her consistency under pressure ... there's nothing left to prove. Like Mao, Yuna seems to be competing in Sochi for personal fulfillment, not for a particular color medal. I wouldn't be surprised if she goes to 2014 Worlds, too, if only to hold down two or three spots for the South Korean ladies next season.

    That said, mskater93 is also correct. Yuna's definition of a bad skate is far less tragic than pretty much everyone else's definition of a bad skate. She's too confident and too sound in her technique to make more than one or two mistakes in a program, and quite honestly, I don't expect her to falter at all. If Yuna skates clean (and I think Korean Nationals will be a big indicator of her condition), she WILL win. No other skater will stand a chance.

  12. #57
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    I'm not expecting Yu-Na to skating 100% cleanly in Sochi. I think it'd be amazing if it happened but, in a way, that's like lightning striking the same place twice. Her clean performances last year at worlds don't count b/c it was worlds, not the Olympics. It's a completely different situation. There are skaters who can skate back-to-back clean performances from competition to competition, but I do think it's significantly different to do it back-to-back at the Olympics.

    That's not to say Yu-Na can't/won't skate cleanly there...I think there's a possibility she will, but skating cleanly is not something she's known for doing. She's only done it twice in her career so far. Yu-Na usually makes mistakes but unlike most, her errors don't hurt her as much as others b/c she's already ahead of the field. In addition to that, she's not a snowballer when it comes to mistakes: she can make a mistake, refocus, and continue cleanly rather than make another mistake and then another.

    I can't see Yu-Na not making the podium...but unlike in Vancouver, I'm not 100% sure she'll win this time.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ForeverFish View Post
    I'm not sure what this means, but maybe that's just because I'm not a superstitious person. Yuna doesn't have everything on the line in Sochi -- at least, not nearly to the extent that she did in Vancouver. She's already an Olympic champion, a two-time World champion, never finished off the podium, known for her consistency under pressure ... there's nothing left to prove. Like Mao, Yuna seems to be competing in Sochi for personal fulfillment, not for a particular color medal. I wouldn't be surprised if she goes to 2014 Worlds, too, if only to hold down two or three spots for the South Korean ladies next season.

    That said, mskater93 is also correct. Yuna's definition of a bad skate is far less tragic than pretty much everyone else's definition of a bad skate. She's too confident and too sound in her technique to make more than one or two mistakes in a program, and quite honestly, I don't expect her to falter at all. If Yuna skates clean (and I think Korean Nationals will be a big indicator of her condition), she WILL win. No other skater will stand a chance.


    I disagree with this. A clean Mao should be able to beat a clean Yuna Kim.(don't attack me I am not saying it will happen because we have not seen a clean Mao Yet). However, if that were to happen Mao will be ahead, make no mistake, she will get the clean bonus. she has the artistry, spins and her speed is not bad either. Her program is difficult enough that she could overcome Kim's GOE. Look at her SP this year, the judges love it, if she landed all her jumps on that alone there is no reason the judges will score Yuna Kim ahead of her. Now, I will say it again, we have seen a perfect LP from Yuna Kim a worlds and we have not seen a perfect Mao.

    Also, if Carolina had a clean 7 triples program, she will not be to far behind, she might even win it. Carolina Kostner has textbook jumps, so when landed she should get big GOE, she also has the artistry and her spins are good enough. So they are two people if perfect could win gold.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Icey View Post
    Underdog definition:a participant in a fight, conflict, or game who is not expected to win
    I guess we could switch to "dark horse"! Back to "underdog".....I would say that Kim Yuna might be the only lady who shouldn't be referred to as an underdog, but based on entering an overwhelming Olympic event with scant, recent major competition participation, it appears that she might even be considered an underdog. Since the cessation of the "figures" phase of competition, predicting winners of major skating events is quite chancy and it seems there are always surprises.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Minze2001 View Post
    [/B]

    I disagree with this. A clean Mao should be able to beat a clean Yuna Kim.(don't attack me I am not saying it will happen because we have not seen a clean Mao Yet). However, if that were to happen Mao will be ahead, make no mistake, she will get the clean bonus. she has the artistry, spins and her speed is not bad either. Her program is difficult enough that she could overcome Kim's GOE. Look at her SP this year, the judges love it, if she landed all her jumps on that alone there is no reason the judges will score Yuna Kim ahead of her. Now, I will say it again, we have seen a perfect LP from Yuna Kim a worlds and we have not seen a perfect Mao.

    Also, if Carolina had a clean 7 triples program, she will not be to far behind, she might even win it. Carolina Kostner has textbook jumps, so when landed she should get big GOE, she also has the artistry and her spins are good enough. So they are two people if perfect could win gold.
    I debated including the possibility of a clean Mao and a clean Carolina in my post, but decided to stick with what I know about each of them at this moment -- that Yuna can get massive scores when she skates clean or even relatively clean, and that Mao and Carolina ... aren't really known for skating clean. I haven't the slightest clue what scores we'd see for a clean Mao or a clean Carolina, but I do know what a clean Yuna is capable of. In four years, no one has come close to the score she set at the Vancouver Olympics -- not even her. But, in the event that all three women skated lights-out for both programs in Sochi (positive GOE across the board, no downgrades or URs), I'd put my money on Carolina to be the bigger threat to Yuna, for the reasons you mentioned.

    I'll leave you with this: IF all 3 skate clean in Sochi, we'll be in for a real treat.

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