In all seriousness, though, Yuna will be unbeatable if she skates clean -- no ifs, ands, or buts. That scenario would have at least eight ladies (Wagner, Suzuki, Lipnitskaia, Asada, Gold, Sotnikova, Kostner, and Murakami) vying for silver and bronze. I hesitate to include Li until I see her compete again. She skipped her second GP and Chinese Nationals, so if she doesn't go to 4CC or a senior B, the Olympics will be her second competition of the season. Not even Yuna has taken that chance.
Li has released a practice video where she looks quite nice and her jumps were all there. She might not be in condition to do it at Sochi, but she hasn't lost her technique.
Carne is just joking with the numbers. To think Lipnitskaia has almost the same odds as Mao is a bit absurd, Russian ice or not.
The real underdog is Carolina Kostner! She has the ability to win it all--if she is prepared mentally and physically. Alas, that doesn't always happen. But judges like her, she has great speed, artistry, and makes a stunning picture on ice.
Granted that Kim is a shoo-in, but if she has an off day, and Mao fails on her 3-axels, Carolina could snatch the gold with a perfect skate. I must add that I do not consider Julia an underdog. I will not be shocked if she wins...and I repeat that I sense "location" as a contributor to that possibility.
People keep saying Yuna is a shoo-in to win but she's due for a bad skate when everything is on the line. All the other Ladies will be peaking at the right time and have been competing all season while Kim will be untested to some degree with only 2 competitions against mediocre skaters for the most part. Yes it worked last year but it's a new season and i just think giving her the gold now is ridiculous. I've seen to many sure things lose in other sports no matter how great they were.
Underdog definition:a participant in a fight, conflict, or game who is not expected to win
That said, mskater93 is also correct. Yuna's definition of a bad skate is far less tragic than pretty much everyone else's definition of a bad skate. She's too confident and too sound in her technique to make more than one or two mistakes in a program, and quite honestly, I don't expect her to falter at all. If Yuna skates clean (and I think Korean Nationals will be a big indicator of her condition), she WILL win. No other skater will stand a chance.
I'm not expecting Yu-Na to skating 100% cleanly in Sochi. I think it'd be amazing if it happened but, in a way, that's like lightning striking the same place twice. Her clean performances last year at worlds don't count b/c it was worlds, not the Olympics. It's a completely different situation. There are skaters who can skate back-to-back clean performances from competition to competition, but I do think it's significantly different to do it back-to-back at the Olympics.
That's not to say Yu-Na can't/won't skate cleanly there...I think there's a possibility she will, but skating cleanly is not something she's known for doing. She's only done it twice in her career so far. Yu-Na usually makes mistakes but unlike most, her errors don't hurt her as much as others b/c she's already ahead of the field. In addition to that, she's not a snowballer when it comes to mistakes: she can make a mistake, refocus, and continue cleanly rather than make another mistake and then another.
I can't see Yu-Na not making the podium...but unlike in Vancouver, I'm not 100% sure she'll win this time.
I disagree with this. A clean Mao should be able to beat a clean Yuna Kim.(don't attack me I am not saying it will happen because we have not seen a clean Mao Yet). However, if that were to happen Mao will be ahead, make no mistake, she will get the clean bonus. she has the artistry, spins and her speed is not bad either. Her program is difficult enough that she could overcome Kim's GOE. Look at her SP this year, the judges love it, if she landed all her jumps on that alone there is no reason the judges will score Yuna Kim ahead of her. Now, I will say it again, we have seen a perfect LP from Yuna Kim a worlds and we have not seen a perfect Mao.
Also, if Carolina had a clean 7 triples program, she will not be to far behind, she might even win it. Carolina Kostner has textbook jumps, so when landed she should get big GOE, she also has the artistry and her spins are good enough. So they are two people if perfect could win gold.
I'll leave you with this: IF all 3 skate clean in Sochi, we'll be in for a real treat.