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Thread: Who Will Be The Ladies " Underdog" at the Olympics?

  1. #61
    Custom Title Minze2001's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ForeverFish View Post
    I debated including the possibility of a clean Mao and a clean Carolina in my post, but decided to stick with what I know about each of them at this moment -- that Yuna can get massive scores when she skates clean or even relatively clean, and that Mao and Carolina ... aren't really known for skating clean. I haven't the slightest clue what scores we'd see for a clean Mao or a clean Carolina, but I do know what a clean Yuna is capable of. In four years, no one has come close to the score she set at the Vancouver Olympics -- not even her. But, in the event that all three women skated lights-out for both programs in Sochi (positive GOE across the board, no downgrades or URs), I'd put my money on Carolina to be the bigger threat to Yuna, for the reasons you mentioned.

    I'll leave you with this: IF all 3 skate clean in Sochi, we'll be in for a real treat.
    Yes, if we are talking about the most likely or possible outcome. Yes Yuna Kim will win. But if (big if) clean Mao and clean Carolina could win. Mao has the difficulty and Carolina has execution. I don't even know why some people think Carolina is out of this.

  2. #62
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    Carne is just joking with the numbers. To think Lipnitskaia has almost the same odds as Mao is a bit absurd, Russian ice or not.
    I may have exaggerated on some, but this winter Mao had to cut her pre-competition practices short and completely avoid certain spins due to back pain. If she can't recover reasonably well in time for Sochi, then she's going to have problems.

    Quote Originally Posted by Minze2001 View Post
    Yes, if we are talking about the most likely or possible outcome. Yes Yuna Kim will win. But if (big if) clean Mao and clean Carolina could win. Mao has the difficulty and Carolina has execution. I don't even know why some people think Carolina is out of this.
    Personally, I think Kostner's out of this in an all-clean competition because when I took her Worlds 2013 scores and added the extra points she'd gain for correcting her errors (and getting +1 GOE), she only came up to a 142.92. Now I did not factor in any "clean bonus" but giving her a +3 PCS boost and a +3 overall GOE boost would get it done for a 148.92. And just to let you know my reasoning for Asada, ForeverFish, adding up numbers from Asada's NHK Trophy performance can get her to 149 without any assumption of a 6 point clean bonus. She would never get 70 PCS in Russia for a performance that is anything short of spectacular but spectacular is what we're assuming when we talk about potential.

    If anyone is wondering what I added:
    Kostner 142.92
    131.03 (Worlds 2013 FS) + 5.06 (for the popped 3Lox) + 3.19 (for <<3Sx) + 1 (fall deduction) + 1.04 (Loop from -0.04 to +1 GOE) + 1.6 (3S to +1 GOE)
    Asada 148.85
    136.33 (NHK 2013 FS) + 2.5 (3A not <) + 2.7 (3F-2Lo to 3A-2T) - 0.7 (3Lz to 3F) + 3.19 (2Sx to 3Sx) + 2.43 (3A +1 GOE) + 1.6 (no e, +1 Flip GOE) + 0.8 (3S getting +0.8 GOE)

    And of course, here's the mandatory disclaimer: Yuna Kim will skate clean and win. The above numbers are completely hypothetical and won't happen ever.

  3. #63
    Custom Title plushyfan's Avatar
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    Julia Lipnitskaya

  4. #64
    Custom Title Minze2001's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by CarneAsada View Post
    I may have exaggerated on some, but this winter Mao had to cut her pre-competition practices short and completely avoid certain spins due to back pain. If she can't recover reasonably well in time for Sochi, then she's going to have problems.


    Personally, I think Kostner's out of this in an all-clean competition because when I took her Worlds 2013 scores and added the extra points she'd gain for correcting her errors (and getting +1 GOE), she only came up to a 142.92. Now I did not factor in any "clean bonus" but giving her a +3 PCS boost and a +3 overall GOE boost would get it done for a 148.92. And just to let you know my reasoning for Asada, ForeverFish, adding up numbers from Asada's NHK Trophy performance can get her to 149 without any assumption of a 6 point clean bonus. She would never get 70 PCS in Russia for a performance that is anything short of spectacular but spectacular is what we're assuming when we talk about potential.

    If anyone is wondering what I added:
    Kostner 142.92
    131.03 (Worlds 2013 FS) + 5.06 (for the popped 3Lox) + 3.19 (for <<3Sx) + 1 (fall deduction) + 1.04 (Loop from -0.04 to +1 GOE) + 1.6 (3S to +1 GOE)
    Asada 148.85
    136.33 (NHK 2013 FS) + 2.5 (3A not <) + 2.7 (3F-2Lo to 3A-2T) - 0.7 (3Lz to 3F) + 3.19 (2Sx to 3Sx) + 2.43 (3A +1 GOE) + 1.6 (no e, +1 Flip GOE) + 0.8 (3S getting +0.8 GOE)

    And of course, here's the mandatory disclaimer: Yuna Kim will skate clean and win. The above numbers are completely hypothetical and won't happen ever.

    Hey. Ice is slippery. Never say never. Five yeas ago if someone told you Akiko Suzuki will be a national champion with the highest national LP score ever. Would you have believe it?

  5. #65
    축복, 축도 RABID's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kwanatic View Post
    I'm not expecting Yu-Na to skating 100% cleanly in Sochi. I think it'd be amazing if it happened but, in a way, that's like lightning striking the same place twice. Her clean performances last year at worlds don't count b/c it was worlds, not the Olympics. It's a completely different situation. There are skaters who can skate back-to-back clean performances from competition to competition, but I do think it's significantly different to do it back-to-back at the Olympics.

    That's not to say Yu-Na can't/won't skate cleanly there...I think there's a possibility she will, but skating cleanly is not something she's known for doing. She's only done it twice in her career so far. Yu-Na usually makes mistakes but unlike most, her errors don't hurt her as much as others b/c she's already ahead of the field. In addition to that, she's not a snowballer when it comes to mistakes: she can make a mistake, refocus, and continue cleanly rather than make another mistake and then another.

    I can't see Yu-Na not making the podium...but unlike in Vancouver, I'm not 100% sure she'll win this time.

    If any one can it is her. First, as everyone probably knows she never misses the podium which means she is never out of position, never far from the prize; no meltdowns, no distractions and even when injured she is always a podium threat. The irony is that while others talk about beating her if she falters, history says THEY can't falter if they want a place on the podium. But as Jammers said above, she is going into the Olympics, having never faced any noteworthy competition. Added to that she might be surprised to find her usual rivals might just be sharing the spotlight with some feisty Russian girls. I know she was injured but she has skated with injuries before. I hope her caution doesn't come back to bite her. However I won't be distressed if she doesn't win gold IF she skates a flawed but beautiful pair of programs.

  6. #66
    Rejoicing in the land of Kwan kwanatic's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by CarneAsada View Post
    And of course, here's the mandatory disclaimer: Yuna Kim will skate clean and win. The above numbers are completely hypothetical and won't happen ever.
    And to this mandatory disclaimer I add these words of caution: don't tempt the fates.

    Sky_fly20 can tell you all about that. For the last 2 years she proclaimed that Adelina Sotnikova would never skate back-to-back clean programs, that it would never happen. Guess who won Russian nationals last week thanks to two clean programs?

    I'm just sayin'...

  7. #67
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    Quote Originally Posted by kwanatic View Post
    And to this mandatory disclaimer I add these words of caution: don't tempt the fates.

    Sky_fly20 can tell you all about that. For the last 2 years she proclaimed that Adelina Sotnikova would never skate back-to-back clean programs, that it would never happen. Guess who won Russian nationals last week thanks to two clean programs?

    I'm just sayin'...
    Not to be the devil's advocate, but Adelina wasn't completely clean at Russian Nationals. In the FS, she stepped out of the 3Lz-3Lo (and I think the 3Lo was UR, too). Still, it was a splendid effort on her behalf, and I get your point.

    I don't remember what people were saying about Yuna before the Vancouver Olympics, but she was clearly the favorite to win. If ever there was a time for her to crumble under the pressure, it was in 2010.

    This article about Yuna and Sochi was just published a few hours ago:

    http://olympictalk.nbcsports.com/201...igure-skating/

    “I’m not feeling much pressure for the Olympics because I think I already have done many things in my career,” Kim said, according to the newspaper. “I will try to enjoy my second Olympics.”

  8. #68
    I like pie. Tonichelle's Avatar
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    her comments remind me so much of G&G's comments about the 1994 games. "The first we skated for our country, the second time we skated for ourselves."

  9. #69
    Yuna's Ice Rink cooper's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kwanatic View Post
    And to this mandatory disclaimer I add these words of caution: don't tempt the fates.

    Sky_fly20 can tell you all about that. For the last 2 years she proclaimed that Adelina Sotnikova would never skate back-to-back clean programs, that it would never happen. Guess who won Russian nationals last week thanks to two clean programs?

    I'm just sayin'...
    eh.. it's funny because the non-yuna fans are the ones who are saying that she will win 100% guaranteed.. most of yuna ubers (outside of those crazy bots) including me are not even making an assumption that SHE WILL WIN no matter what.. we understand that the olympics is different.. and that anything can happen..

  10. #70
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    Quote Originally Posted by cooper View Post
    eh.. it's funny because the non-yuna fans are the ones who are saying that she will win 100% guaranteed.. most of yuna ubers (outside of those crazy bots) including me are not even making an assumption that SHE WILL WIN no matter what.. we understand that the olympics is different.. and that anything can happen..
    I don't think ANYONE is making the assumption that she'll win no matter what. Everyone knows that ice is slippery and that, as you said, anything can happen. What people are saying is that, if Yuna skates two clean programs, she will win.

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    At this point, I'm demoting Carolina to underdog #1 and Akiko as underdog #2.

    Looks like Scheherazade is going to stay with some modifications.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0cIoOnHw31g

    It's looking much better. Carolina is emoting. A lot. I'm liking it more and more. Love the hair, too. Now, if only they change the skirt.

  12. #72
    Custom Title Minze2001's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by FlattFan View Post
    At this point, I'm demoting Carolina to underdog #1 and Akiko as underdog #2.

    Looks like Scheherazade is going to stay with some modifications.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0cIoOnHw31g

    It's looking much better. Carolina is emoting. A lot. I'm liking it more and more. Love the hair, too. Now, if only they change the skirt.
    Wow! The absolute Queen of interpretation, IMO this one of the areas where she is better than the top two skaters in the world. Like the commentators said without the pressure of competition she sells that program well.

  13. #73
    Custom Title chapis's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by FlattFan View Post
    At this point, I'm demoting Carolina to underdog #1 and Akiko as underdog #2.

    Looks like Scheherazade is going to stay with some modifications.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0cIoOnHw31g

    It's looking much better. Carolina is emoting. A lot. I'm liking it more and more. Love the hair, too. Now, if only they change the skirt.
    WOW , a lot better, I love it, her spirals are amazing, but it will be an ex program now?, please tell me not, it is incredible, I want she keep it like competitive program.

  14. #74
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    Yup, the step sequence is really in sync to the music. Very fast turn, using the entire body. It's looking much better than CoC and CoR now. Like a real contender for the Gold medal with the program.

    NBC sport re-broadcast Vancouver Olympics a day or two ago and I recorded it. I rewatched Evan's Schez and his step sequence is no where near as polished as this.

  15. #75
    In search of a summer sport to love <3 desertskates's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by FlattFan View Post
    At this point, I'm demoting Carolina to underdog #1 and Akiko as underdog #2.

    Looks like Scheherazade is going to stay with some modifications.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0cIoOnHw31g

    It's looking much better. Carolina is emoting. A lot. I'm liking it more and more. Love the hair, too. Now, if only they change the skirt.
    Exactly. This is one of my favorite pieces of music, and I loves the cuts. She seems to be using her face and arms to nice effect, and spirals!! Please bring backs spiral, ladies. But the bottom part of the dress needs to go. Lose the nude colored panty part, streamline the skirt, and it would be much nicer. Regardless of the outcome, I hope she skates well in Sochi.

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