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Thread: Who Will Be The Ladies " Underdog" at the Olympics?

  1. #61
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    The real underdog is Carolina Kostner! She has the ability to win it all--if she is prepared mentally and physically. Alas, that doesn't always happen. But judges like her, she has great speed, artistry, and makes a stunning picture on ice.
    Granted that Kim is a shoo-in, but if she has an off day, and Mao fails on her 3-axels, Carolina could snatch the gold with a perfect skate. I must add that I do not consider Julia an underdog. I will not be shocked if she wins...and I repeat that I sense "location" as a contributor to that possibility.

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    People keep saying Yuna is a shoo-in to win but she's due for a bad skate when everything is on the line. All the other Ladies will be peaking at the right time and have been competing all season while Kim will be untested to some degree with only 2 competitions against mediocre skaters for the most part. Yes it worked last year but it's a new season and i just think giving her the gold now is ridiculous. I've seen to many sure things lose in other sports no matter how great they were.

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    Underdog definition:a participant in a fight, conflict, or game who is not expected to win

  4. #64
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jammers View Post
    People keep saying Yuna is a shoo-in to win but she's due for a bad skate when everything is on the line. All the other Ladies will be peaking at the right time and have been competing all season while Kim will be untested to some degree with only 2 competitions against mediocre skaters for the most part. Yes it worked last year but it's a new season and i just think giving her the gold now is ridiculous. I've seen to many sure things lose in other sports no matter how great they were.
    If she brings it (and her bad skates are way less "bad" than most other skaters and are often better than most skaters great skates), she will win gold. Period.

  5. #65
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eddie Lee View Post
    The real underdog is Carolina Kostner! She has the ability to win it all--if she is prepared mentally and physically. Alas, that doesn't always happen. But judges like her, she has great speed, artistry, and makes a stunning picture on ice.
    Granted that Kim is a shoo-in, but if she has an off day, and Mao fails on her 3-axels, Carolina could snatch the gold with a perfect skate. I must add that I do not consider Julia an underdog. I will not be shocked if she wins...and I repeat that I sense "location" as a contributor to that possibility.
    No no no no no.

    I see where you're coming from, but if this actually HAPPENS ...

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jammers View Post
    People keep saying Yuna is a shoo-in to win but she's due for a bad skate when everything is on the line. All the other Ladies will be peaking at the right time and have been competing all season while Kim will be untested to some degree with only 2 competitions against mediocre skaters for the most part. Yes it worked last year but it's a new season and i just think giving her the gold now is ridiculous. I've seen to many sure things lose in other sports no matter how great they were.
    I'm not sure what this means, but maybe that's just because I'm not a superstitious person. Yuna doesn't have everything on the line in Sochi -- at least, not nearly to the extent that she did in Vancouver. She's already an Olympic champion, a two-time World champion, never finished off the podium, known for her consistency under pressure ... there's nothing left to prove. Like Mao, Yuna seems to be competing in Sochi for personal fulfillment, not for a particular color medal. I wouldn't be surprised if she goes to 2014 Worlds, too, if only to hold down two or three spots for the South Korean ladies next season.

    That said, mskater93 is also correct. Yuna's definition of a bad skate is far less tragic than pretty much everyone else's definition of a bad skate. She's too confident and too sound in her technique to make more than one or two mistakes in a program, and quite honestly, I don't expect her to falter at all. If Yuna skates clean (and I think Korean Nationals will be a big indicator of her condition), she WILL win. No other skater will stand a chance.

  7. #67
    Rejoicing in the land of Kwan kwanatic's Avatar
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    I'm not expecting Yu-Na to skating 100% cleanly in Sochi. I think it'd be amazing if it happened but, in a way, that's like lightning striking the same place twice. Her clean performances last year at worlds don't count b/c it was worlds, not the Olympics. It's a completely different situation. There are skaters who can skate back-to-back clean performances from competition to competition, but I do think it's significantly different to do it back-to-back at the Olympics.

    That's not to say Yu-Na can't/won't skate cleanly there...I think there's a possibility she will, but skating cleanly is not something she's known for doing. She's only done it twice in her career so far. Yu-Na usually makes mistakes but unlike most, her errors don't hurt her as much as others b/c she's already ahead of the field. In addition to that, she's not a snowballer when it comes to mistakes: she can make a mistake, refocus, and continue cleanly rather than make another mistake and then another.

    I can't see Yu-Na not making the podium...but unlike in Vancouver, I'm not 100% sure she'll win this time.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ForeverFish View Post
    I'm not sure what this means, but maybe that's just because I'm not a superstitious person. Yuna doesn't have everything on the line in Sochi -- at least, not nearly to the extent that she did in Vancouver. She's already an Olympic champion, a two-time World champion, never finished off the podium, known for her consistency under pressure ... there's nothing left to prove. Like Mao, Yuna seems to be competing in Sochi for personal fulfillment, not for a particular color medal. I wouldn't be surprised if she goes to 2014 Worlds, too, if only to hold down two or three spots for the South Korean ladies next season.

    That said, mskater93 is also correct. Yuna's definition of a bad skate is far less tragic than pretty much everyone else's definition of a bad skate. She's too confident and too sound in her technique to make more than one or two mistakes in a program, and quite honestly, I don't expect her to falter at all. If Yuna skates clean (and I think Korean Nationals will be a big indicator of her condition), she WILL win. No other skater will stand a chance.


    I disagree with this. A clean Mao should be able to beat a clean Yuna Kim.(don't attack me I am not saying it will happen because we have not seen a clean Mao Yet). However, if that were to happen Mao will be ahead, make no mistake, she will get the clean bonus. she has the artistry, spins and her speed is not bad either. Her program is difficult enough that she could overcome Kim's GOE. Look at her SP this year, the judges love it, if she landed all her jumps on that alone there is no reason the judges will score Yuna Kim ahead of her. Now, I will say it again, we have seen a perfect LP from Yuna Kim a worlds and we have not seen a perfect Mao.

    Also, if Carolina had a clean 7 triples program, she will not be to far behind, she might even win it. Carolina Kostner has textbook jumps, so when landed she should get big GOE, she also has the artistry and her spins are good enough. So they are two people if perfect could win gold.

  9. #69
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    Quote Originally Posted by Icey View Post
    Underdog definition:a participant in a fight, conflict, or game who is not expected to win
    I guess we could switch to "dark horse"! Back to "underdog".....I would say that Kim Yuna might be the only lady who shouldn't be referred to as an underdog, but based on entering an overwhelming Olympic event with scant, recent major competition participation, it appears that she might even be considered an underdog. Since the cessation of the "figures" phase of competition, predicting winners of major skating events is quite chancy and it seems there are always surprises.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Minze2001 View Post
    [/B]

    I disagree with this. A clean Mao should be able to beat a clean Yuna Kim.(don't attack me I am not saying it will happen because we have not seen a clean Mao Yet). However, if that were to happen Mao will be ahead, make no mistake, she will get the clean bonus. she has the artistry, spins and her speed is not bad either. Her program is difficult enough that she could overcome Kim's GOE. Look at her SP this year, the judges love it, if she landed all her jumps on that alone there is no reason the judges will score Yuna Kim ahead of her. Now, I will say it again, we have seen a perfect LP from Yuna Kim a worlds and we have not seen a perfect Mao.

    Also, if Carolina had a clean 7 triples program, she will not be to far behind, she might even win it. Carolina Kostner has textbook jumps, so when landed she should get big GOE, she also has the artistry and her spins are good enough. So they are two people if perfect could win gold.
    I debated including the possibility of a clean Mao and a clean Carolina in my post, but decided to stick with what I know about each of them at this moment -- that Yuna can get massive scores when she skates clean or even relatively clean, and that Mao and Carolina ... aren't really known for skating clean. I haven't the slightest clue what scores we'd see for a clean Mao or a clean Carolina, but I do know what a clean Yuna is capable of. In four years, no one has come close to the score she set at the Vancouver Olympics -- not even her. But, in the event that all three women skated lights-out for both programs in Sochi (positive GOE across the board, no downgrades or URs), I'd put my money on Carolina to be the bigger threat to Yuna, for the reasons you mentioned.

    I'll leave you with this: IF all 3 skate clean in Sochi, we'll be in for a real treat.

  11. #71
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    Quote Originally Posted by ForeverFish View Post
    I debated including the possibility of a clean Mao and a clean Carolina in my post, but decided to stick with what I know about each of them at this moment -- that Yuna can get massive scores when she skates clean or even relatively clean, and that Mao and Carolina ... aren't really known for skating clean. I haven't the slightest clue what scores we'd see for a clean Mao or a clean Carolina, but I do know what a clean Yuna is capable of. In four years, no one has come close to the score she set at the Vancouver Olympics -- not even her. But, in the event that all three women skated lights-out for both programs in Sochi (positive GOE across the board, no downgrades or URs), I'd put my money on Carolina to be the bigger threat to Yuna, for the reasons you mentioned.

    I'll leave you with this: IF all 3 skate clean in Sochi, we'll be in for a real treat.
    Yes, if we are talking about the most likely or possible outcome. Yes Yuna Kim will win. But if (big if) clean Mao and clean Carolina could win. Mao has the difficulty and Carolina has execution. I don't even know why some people think Carolina is out of this.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    Carne is just joking with the numbers. To think Lipnitskaia has almost the same odds as Mao is a bit absurd, Russian ice or not.
    I may have exaggerated on some, but this winter Mao had to cut her pre-competition practices short and completely avoid certain spins due to back pain. If she can't recover reasonably well in time for Sochi, then she's going to have problems.

    Quote Originally Posted by Minze2001 View Post
    Yes, if we are talking about the most likely or possible outcome. Yes Yuna Kim will win. But if (big if) clean Mao and clean Carolina could win. Mao has the difficulty and Carolina has execution. I don't even know why some people think Carolina is out of this.
    Personally, I think Kostner's out of this in an all-clean competition because when I took her Worlds 2013 scores and added the extra points she'd gain for correcting her errors (and getting +1 GOE), she only came up to a 142.92. Now I did not factor in any "clean bonus" but giving her a +3 PCS boost and a +3 overall GOE boost would get it done for a 148.92. And just to let you know my reasoning for Asada, ForeverFish, adding up numbers from Asada's NHK Trophy performance can get her to 149 without any assumption of a 6 point clean bonus. She would never get 70 PCS in Russia for a performance that is anything short of spectacular but spectacular is what we're assuming when we talk about potential.

    If anyone is wondering what I added:
    Kostner 142.92
    131.03 (Worlds 2013 FS) + 5.06 (for the popped 3Lox) + 3.19 (for <<3Sx) + 1 (fall deduction) + 1.04 (Loop from -0.04 to +1 GOE) + 1.6 (3S to +1 GOE)
    Asada 148.85
    136.33 (NHK 2013 FS) + 2.5 (3A not <) + 2.7 (3F-2Lo to 3A-2T) - 0.7 (3Lz to 3F) + 3.19 (2Sx to 3Sx) + 2.43 (3A +1 GOE) + 1.6 (no e, +1 Flip GOE) + 0.8 (3S getting +0.8 GOE)

    And of course, here's the mandatory disclaimer: Yuna Kim will skate clean and win. The above numbers are completely hypothetical and won't happen ever.

  13. #73
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    Julia Lipnitskaya

  14. #74
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    Quote Originally Posted by CarneAsada View Post
    I may have exaggerated on some, but this winter Mao had to cut her pre-competition practices short and completely avoid certain spins due to back pain. If she can't recover reasonably well in time for Sochi, then she's going to have problems.


    Personally, I think Kostner's out of this in an all-clean competition because when I took her Worlds 2013 scores and added the extra points she'd gain for correcting her errors (and getting +1 GOE), she only came up to a 142.92. Now I did not factor in any "clean bonus" but giving her a +3 PCS boost and a +3 overall GOE boost would get it done for a 148.92. And just to let you know my reasoning for Asada, ForeverFish, adding up numbers from Asada's NHK Trophy performance can get her to 149 without any assumption of a 6 point clean bonus. She would never get 70 PCS in Russia for a performance that is anything short of spectacular but spectacular is what we're assuming when we talk about potential.

    If anyone is wondering what I added:
    Kostner 142.92
    131.03 (Worlds 2013 FS) + 5.06 (for the popped 3Lox) + 3.19 (for <<3Sx) + 1 (fall deduction) + 1.04 (Loop from -0.04 to +1 GOE) + 1.6 (3S to +1 GOE)
    Asada 148.85
    136.33 (NHK 2013 FS) + 2.5 (3A not <) + 2.7 (3F-2Lo to 3A-2T) - 0.7 (3Lz to 3F) + 3.19 (2Sx to 3Sx) + 2.43 (3A +1 GOE) + 1.6 (no e, +1 Flip GOE) + 0.8 (3S getting +0.8 GOE)

    And of course, here's the mandatory disclaimer: Yuna Kim will skate clean and win. The above numbers are completely hypothetical and won't happen ever.

    Hey. Ice is slippery. Never say never. Five yeas ago if someone told you Akiko Suzuki will be a national champion with the highest national LP score ever. Would you have believe it?

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    Quote Originally Posted by kwanatic View Post
    I'm not expecting Yu-Na to skating 100% cleanly in Sochi. I think it'd be amazing if it happened but, in a way, that's like lightning striking the same place twice. Her clean performances last year at worlds don't count b/c it was worlds, not the Olympics. It's a completely different situation. There are skaters who can skate back-to-back clean performances from competition to competition, but I do think it's significantly different to do it back-to-back at the Olympics.

    That's not to say Yu-Na can't/won't skate cleanly there...I think there's a possibility she will, but skating cleanly is not something she's known for doing. She's only done it twice in her career so far. Yu-Na usually makes mistakes but unlike most, her errors don't hurt her as much as others b/c she's already ahead of the field. In addition to that, she's not a snowballer when it comes to mistakes: she can make a mistake, refocus, and continue cleanly rather than make another mistake and then another.

    I can't see Yu-Na not making the podium...but unlike in Vancouver, I'm not 100% sure she'll win this time.

    If any one can it is her. First, as everyone probably knows she never misses the podium which means she is never out of position, never far from the prize; no meltdowns, no distractions and even when injured she is always a podium threat. The irony is that while others talk about beating her if she falters, history says THEY can't falter if they want a place on the podium. But as Jammers said above, she is going into the Olympics, having never faced any noteworthy competition. Added to that she might be surprised to find her usual rivals might just be sharing the spotlight with some feisty Russian girls. I know she was injured but she has skated with injuries before. I hope her caution doesn't come back to bite her. However I won't be distressed if she doesn't win gold IF she skates a flawed but beautiful pair of programs.

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