I highly doubt Wagner can make a three peat, it would make her the most consecutive since Kwan
which will be sad Wagner hasn't shown to have medaled at Worlds
Gracie if she wins will be heading to Sochi as the No.1 US lady
Wagner is overestimated and isn't that much reliable
I hope not. Wagner's PCS should be higher, she should be going in to the Olympics as #1 Us lady because she has the better programs (yes, I will defend Wagner's so-so Romeo and Juliet over Gold's two nonsensical, jarring programs - at least Wagner's long brushes up against being more to her style). Gold may have more potential but right now she is not as fun to watch, doesn't have the range of wild emotions Wagner has, doesn't have the tiger eye, simply isn't as interesting. And for all this talk of Ashley being able to fold under pressure, she did well at GPF even if it wasn't her best. Gold lost a three-point lead in the short at Skate Canada to end up 13 points behind the winner and was thirty points back from the winner at NHK, I'd expect her to have issues with nerves way before Ashley.
Watching Li Zijun skate to Sleeping Beauty again makes it painfully obvious just how boring and uninspired Gold's LP is this year.
So yeah, Wagner also has a comparatively boring and uninspired LP, but she's still far ahead in PCS.
Wagner could easily fix that problem by taking back her Black Swan LP - nobody would be disappointed about that. I don't think Gold has such an easy way out - though her La Vita e Bella LP at least had a pleasant music.
If Gracie could deliver it like she did last year in her LP. But Ashley is way more confident and determined. And the girl (Gracie) is not calm, she can get pressure just by being ambitious. This depends on how Frank can work on her mind set.
I think with Gracie's new SP she will win the SP at nationals. We all know that Wagner is never at her best at nationals. She always looks tired. But I think she can maker fewer mistakes then Gracie to stay on top.
But I hope Lori has made some changes to Gracie's LP so that it does not look so juniorist.
I'd also like to point to the fact that this is only Gracie's second appearance at nationals. All of this rushing to get her to the top is why she's been such a mess this season...
Gracie can win if she can put together two strong programs, which is something she hasn't done all year long. She's had one excellent SP; everything else has ranged from so-so to weak. Her jumps, which are her main selling point, have been off this year and that's worrisome. She'll be debuting a new SP at the most stressful event she's ever participated in. We all know Gracie does not skate well under pressure...
If Gracie can get through the SP cleanly then I think she'll have a good shot at gold...but then the question becomes can she handle skating last and with the lead? If both skate cleanly, the nod should go to Ashley. She's upped her technical content which was the main area she was lacking last year and she's clearly the most complete skater the US has. Her SP is a standout b/c it's very unique this year; R&J isn't up to the standard of her last two programs BUT it's still a good program and definitely much better than Gracie's FS. It's also worth noting that Ashley's worst score the season (187.61 at GPF) is still better than Gracie's best of the season (186.65 at SC).
Ashley is the best bet b/c of how well she's done all season long and for the fact that unlike last season where she maxed out her potential by her second GP event, Ashley hasn't peaked this year. I'm sure Gracie will make the team but I have no freakin' idea how she'll skate. She's been very underwhelming this season both from a technical and performance standpoint. That's not to say she won't have a miraculous turnaround and suddenly skate wonderfully...I'm just reluctant to bet on her for anything right now.
Ashley will repeat as the US Champion for two reasons: 1) Her jumps are pretty consistent and 2) She has maintained her positioning as the #1 US Lady internationally. Gracie had her chance to challenge Ashley as the #1 US Lady this season, but she blew it by bombing on the international circuit. She was terrible at the US International Classic and on the Grand Prix circuit (one good short program excluded.)
I do not understand the hype over Gracie. This is a skater who has NEVER won a senior-level competition, not even a low-level summer competition like Skate Detroit. Her biggest accomplishment is finishing a mediocre sixth at Worlds. And, for all the hype over her jumps, she cannot land them in competition.
So, no, I don’t think she will win Nationals, or any event, because she has ZERO jump consistency. The judges don’t care about her bad programs. She’d receive fabulous scores if she was able to land her jumps. But, outside of one junior season, she’s never been able to land her jumps when it counts.
In fact, I am thinking that Gracie will deliver one of her terrible three-triple long programs, and be held up by the National judges. She's done nothing to deserve making the Olympic team over another skater who delivers a better performance at Nationals. Her results are terrible. But she has the IMG hype machine behind her, and that has gotten her endorsement deals and will probably get her onto the Olympic team, even if she doesn't deserve the spot.
as you have stated? Second, since when is finishing 6th at your first senior Worlds considered "mediocre"? Third, you say that outside of her junior Nationals title that she's never managed to skate well when it counted... Does last year at Nationals ring a bell? Gracie skated lights out and won the long. She pulled herself all the way up to 2nd place from 9th place after the short. You might wanna just do a quick Google search before you state incorrect information. It's clear that you don't like Gracie, but there's no need to downplay her accomplishments. Although in all likelihood I do believe Wagner will defend her title again at Nationals, I do think you should respect Gracie on her efforts.