Can Gracie Gold finally win US Nationals ?

CanadianSkaterGuy · Jan 10, 2014

aftertherain said:
And make someone else completely and utterly unbearable? Certainly not!

So many people on here really like Gracie and applause her SP - which is why it's hilarious how sky_fly thinks she's waving it in our faces, when we all are happy for her. Of course, even with the Gracie love, we would all love to see Wagner win just so that sky_fly loses her mind at both Wagner and Sotnikova winning. :laugh:

Although, I wouldn't give Gold the win just yet. She has lead the SP twice this season and with bad free skates imploded. And Wagner's best FS this year (127.62) is much higher than Gold's best FS (117.20) this year (over 10 points higher... and Gold's lead is 8 points). Gold still has to do what Sotnikova did at Russian nationals and prove she can skate a clean or close to clean competition when it counts.

Well sky_fly, if Gracie wins, we can neglect Wagner's performances earlier this season, and she can legitimately be called the #1 US skater. Just like it doesn't matter how Julia skated earlier this season -- Adelina Sotnikova is the #1 Russian skater based on her Nationals win. :biggrin:

Krislite · Jan 10, 2014

Franklin99 said:
Wait, what?! Did the US Nationals already happened?

Is this a serious question?

The ladies SP is already finished and Gracie is way ahead in 1st place.

sky_fly20 · Jan 10, 2014

CanadianSkaterGuy said:
Well sky_fly, if Gracie wins, we can neglect Wagner's performances earlier this season, and she can legitimately be called the #1 US skater. Just like it doesn't matter how Julia skated earlier this season -- Adelina Sotnikova is the #1 Russian skater based on her Nationals win.

huge difference there
Julia shows no signs of getting worn out, she won the LP and was even undermarked compared to Adelina
Wagner manifested signs of losing steam since the GPF, I doubt she can beat Gracie even in the FS

Polina Edmunds seems to have a good shot at making the team too
might even place ahead of Wagner

aftertherain · Jan 10, 2014

CanadianSkaterGuy said:
So many people on here really like Gracie and applause her SP - which is why it's hilarious how sky_fly thinks she's waving it in our faces, when we all are happy for her. Of course, even with the Gracie love, we would all love to see Wagner win just so that sky_fly loses her mind at both Wagner and Sotnikova winning.

All of it. It's like you read my mind.

CarneAsada · Jan 10, 2014

Krislite said:
Alright, Gracie. Skate clean in the LP and make me look like a credible fortune teller.

I personally think the highlight of your fortunetelling career was your Miki Ando "prediction". :laugh:

Though it would certainly be great to see Gracie living up to this.

CanadianSkaterGuy · Jan 10, 2014

sky_fly20 said:
huge difference there
Julia shows no signs of getting worn out, she won the LP and was even undermarked compared to Adelina
Wagner manifested signs of losing steam since the GPF, I doubt she can beat Gracie even in the FS

Polina Edmunds seems to have a good shot at making the team too
might even place ahead of Wagner

Dude, Wagner's "unsteamy" GPF competition included a perfect SP, as well as a FS that in spite of errors still scored 119 points, which is higher than any of the freeskate scores Gracie has put out this year.

So at US Nationals, when Wagner makes an error and loses the SP to a clean Gold, she's obviously showing signs of getting worn out. But at Russian Nationals, when Lipnitskaia makes an error and loses the SP to a clean Sotnikova, you dismiss it. :rolleye:

(Also, you're the only one on this board who has said they think that Julia was undermarked compared to Sotnikova.)

sky_fly20 · Jan 10, 2014

CanadianSkaterGuy said:
Dude, Wagner's "unsteamy" GPF competition included a perfect SP, as well as a FS that in spite of errors still scored 119 points, which is higher than any of the freeskate scores Gracie has put out this year.

So at US Nationals, when Wagner makes an error and loses the SP to a clean Gold, she's obviously showing signs of getting worn out. But at Russian Nationals, when Lipnitskaia makes an error and loses the SP to a clean Sotnikova, you dismiss it. (Also, you're the only one on this board who has said they think that Julia was undermarked compared to Sotnikova.)

Wagner has made mistakes in two competitions in a row, GPF and Nationals

CanadianSkaterGuy · Jan 10, 2014

sky_fly20 said:
Wagner has made mistakes in two competitions in a row, GPF and Nationals

Uh, so has almost every prominent skater on the international circuit:

- Mao erred at the GPF and at Nationals
- Julia had a UR'ed 3S at the GPF in her FS, and a step out in her Russian Nationals SP.
- Sotnikova had errors at the GPF and an error in her FS at Nationals
- Gold's competition prior to Nationals (for comparison, since she didn't make the GPF) was NHK, where she erred in both programs -- unless Gold skates clean in the FS, she would be just like all the other skaters who failed to go clean in their past two competitions.
- Suzuki had a UR 3-3 in her SP at Nationals, and errors at the competition before that (NHK)

The only 2 prominent ladies skaters who haven't made a mistake in at least one of their last two competitions are Radionova (Russian Nationals) and Murakami (Japanese Nationals).

Oh, and I guess Kim is "losing steam" because she's made mistakes in her past two competitions (Nationals and Golden Spin) in a row, too. :rolleye:

sky_fly20 · Jan 10, 2014

CanadianSkaterGuy said:
Uh, so has almost every prominent skater on the international circuit:

- Mao erred at the GPF and at Nationals
- Julia had a UR'ed 3S at the GPF in her FS, and a step out in her Russian Nationals SP.
- Sotnikova had errors at the GPF and an error in her FS at Nationals
- Gold's competition prior to Nationals (for comparison, since she didn't make the GPF) was NHK, where she erred in both programs -- unless Gold skates clean in the FS, she would be just like all the other skaters who failed to go clean in their past two competitions.
- Kim made errors at Nationals and Golden Spin of Zagreb
- Suzuki had a UR 3-3 in her SP at Nationals, and errors at the competition before that (NHK)

The only 2 prominent ladies skaters who haven't made mistakes in at least one of their last two competitions are Radionova (Russian Nationals) and Murakami (Japanese Nationals).

Wagner's errors have been blatant, at least she has less inflation in her nationals SP score
fall in FS at the GPF now a hesitant 3-2 almost two foots in Nationals SP, also Radionova was not clean at the GPF FS
No need to mention Sotnikova

I don't see the need to propel Wagner
USFS clearly sees Gracie Gold as their No.1 lady and the highest chance for an Olympic medal

sky_fly20 · Jan 10, 2014

CanadianSkaterGuy said:
Oh, and I guess Kim is "losing steam" because she's made mistakes in her past two competitions (Nationals and Golden Spin) in a row, too.

did you see Yuna's skate ? she had less error at nationals, just needs polishing and more speed
Kim is on an upward trend while Wagner is on a downward trend

CanadianSkaterGuy · Jan 10, 2014

sky_fly20 said:
I don't see the need to propel Wagner
USFS clearly sees Gracie Gold as their No.1 lady and the highest chance for an Olympic medal

You think USFS will completely dismiss facts like: a) Wagner had far more successful this year in competition than Gold, and gave the USA a GP bronze whereas Gold failed to even qualify; b) Wagner's World rank is #3 while Gold's is #8 c) Gold beating Wagner would be the first time that's ever happened.

And who cares who's perceived as the #1 lady, honestly? USFS is concerned with sending their best 3 skaters... if Gold and Wagner fail to skate cleanly in Sochi, it won't matter who the US "sees" as their #1 skater.

USFS dumping Wagner for Gold would be like the Japanese federation dumping Mao and claiming that Suzuki is their best chance for an Olympic medal just because she defeated Mao at Nationals -- and dismissing Mao's success earlier in the year.

You're saying the USFS sees Gold as their #1 lady based off a single SP where Gold skated cleanly and Wagner did not... not to mention Wagner still received higher PCS with her error. Oh yeah, USFS "clearly" sees Gold as their #1 lady. That'd be as illogical as if I had said after the 2014 Russians SP "The Russian fed clearly sees Sotnikova as their No.1 lady and the highest chance for an Olympic medal, because she placed higher after skating cleanly the SP over Lipnitskaia who had an error."

sky_fly20 · Jan 10, 2014

CanadianSkaterGuy said:
You think USFS will completely dismiss facts like: a) Wagner had far more successful this year in competition than Gold, and gave the USA a GP bronze whereas Gold failed to even qualify; b) Wagner's World rank is #3 while Gold's is #8 c) Gold beating Wagner would be the first time that's ever happened.

And who cares who's perceived as the #1 lady, honestly? USFS is concerned with sending their best 3 skaters... if Gold and Wagner fail to skate cleanly in Sochi, it won't matter who the US "sees" as their #1 skater.

Dumping Wagner for Gold would be like the Japanese federation dumping Mao and claiming that Suzuki is their highest chance for an Olympic medal just because she defeated Mao at Nationals -- never mind Mao's success earlier in the year.

you didn't get the point did you ?
it matters because Mao has the backing on her Fed, Gracie has been propped and has finally delivered, you saw her score
she has always been the USFS darling and backed skater, there was a time when Gracie was not yet that consistent and so Wagner was the leading skater

put it this way:
Mao has biggest support form her Fed
Gracie has the biggest support from her Fed
Sotnikova has the biggest supoort from her Fed

at this point, it is wise they are pushing Gracie now
with her renewed confidence and consistency, she has the highest chance to podium at the Olympics
Wagner looks to be on a downward trend

FlattFan · Jan 10, 2014

CanadianSkaterGuy said:
USFS dumping Wagner for Gold would be like the Japanese federation dumping Mao and claiming that Suzuki is their best chance for an Olympic medal just because she defeated Mao at Nationals -- and dismissing Mao's success earlier in the year.

Again, Mao is still a favorite for a medal, and a gold medal contender. Mao is multiple WC. Still Japan #1.
Wagner doesn't have that luxury. Are you confusing Wagner with Mao? Look them up, completely different league.

JAL airline put Maoster on their Boeing 777-300ER livery. Imagine Delta put Wagner on their livery. Yeah, I don't think so.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B8bVbxuPp3E

yunaddiction · Jan 10, 2014

If Gracie in Sochi skate as she did in this national short, I think she can be on the podium.
Good luck to her~

CanadianSkaterGuy · Jan 10, 2014

sky_fly20 said:
you didn't get the point did you ?
it matters because Mao has the backing on her Fed, Gracie has been propped and has finally delivered, you saw her score
she has always been the USFS darling and backed skater, there was a time when Gracie was not yet that consistent and so Wagner was the leading skater

put it this way:
Mao has biggest support form her Fed
Gracie has the biggest support from her Fed
Sotnikova has the biggest supoort from her Fed

Can you wait until the FS is over until you say Gracie has "delivered"? I'm sure you said the same thing about Gold being clearly the #1 US lady after watching her Skate Canada short program.

Wagner has been more of a darling for the USFS than Gold at least in terms of delivering much better results than Gracie in the past two seasons. To suggest that a clean skater getting a higher score than a skater with an error (using just a single SP as a sample size) is a clear indication of a federation throwing their support behind the former is delusional.

Also, Sotnikova doesn't just have the biggest support from the Russian Fed -- she also has it from the international judges. Note that when Adelina and Julia both went clean in their GPF SP, Adelina was in 2nd and Julia was in 4th. If both go clean in Sochi (and Julia's flutzes are rightfully called), everyone knows Sotnikova will be ahead of Julia.

sky_fly20 · Jan 10, 2014

CanadianSkaterGuy said:
Wagner has been more of a darling for the USFS than Gold at least in terms of delivering much better results than Gracie in the past two seasons. To suggest that a clean skater getting a higher score than a skater with an error (using just a single SP as a sample size) is a clear indication of a federation throwing their support behind the former is delusional.

where have you been ?

Gracie has been propped since the past seasons
now that she has delivered, USFS can finally proclaim her a US No.1
they have been waiting in the wings for Gracie

CanadianSkaterGuy · Jan 10, 2014

FlattFan said:
Again, Mao is still a favorite for a medal, and a gold medal contender. Mao is multiple WC. Still Japan #1.
Wagner doesn't have that luxury. Are you confusing Wagner with Mao? Look them up, completely different league.

JAL airline put Maoster on their Boeing 777-300ER livery. Imagine Delta put Wagner on their livery. Yeah, I don't think so.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B8bVbxuPp3E

That's my point. It's ludicrous to say that because of the Nationals loss, you can definitively say Mao & Lipnitskaia & Wagner (if she loses) have clearly been replaced by the victor as the Sochi favourite (especially when they've had a significantly stronger season than those who happen to defeat them Suzuki+Murakami & Sotnikova & Gold-tentatively speaking). Even more ludicrous to do so before the competition is even over, as sky_fly seems to think it is (especially considering Gold's FS problems this year). I'm pretty sure many people believe Takahashi is more of a Sochi medal favourite than Machida, because he's a former WC and reigning Olympic bronze medalist, even though logically speaking Machida is a better medal bet at this point.

This is all ridiculous banter anyways as Gold hasn't even won. :rolleye:

If Wagner happened to win overall, I'm sure sky_fly would grasp at straws and say "Oh, but what about Gold's SP lead?"

Anyways, it's a win-win situation for all of us -- if Gold wins, then we can revel in her winning her first US title... if Wagner wins, we can revel in sky_fly going nuts again like after Russian nationals. :biggrin:

CanadianSkaterGuy · Jan 10, 2014

sky_fly20 said:
where have you been ?

Gracie has been propped since the past seasons
now that she has delivered, USFS can finally proclaim her a US No.1
they have been waiting in the wings for Gracie

I don't see what she did tonight (a clean SP) much different that what she already "delivered" at Skate Canada, if you recall, and we all know how her season went after that.

She can finally be proclaimed a US No. 1 if she wins on Saturday. Until then, she is simply the leader after the Nationals short program.

aftertherain · Jan 10, 2014

Hmm. As much as I want Gracie to do well, I think I've changed my mind about her SP. When I first saw the fan cam of it for the American Legends event, I thought it was a wonderful program for her. Now, I don't think I was right.

All this program does is force her to be "artistic"--not the kind that necessarily invokes strong feelings in someone, but rather what the judges can cushion PCS with. Sure she smiles more, but her movements are artificial fluff that serve no purpose other than to convince judges that she's become Lu Chen or something.

Make no mistake though, I still like this better than her first SP.

CanadianSkaterGuy · Jan 10, 2014

aftertherain said:
Hmm. As much as I want Gracie to do well, I think I've changed my mind about her SP. When I first saw the fan cam of it for the American Legends event, I thought it was a wonderful program for her. Now, I don't think I was right.

All this program does is force her to be "artistic"--not the kind that necessarily invokes strong feelings in someone, but rather what the judges can cushion PCS with. Sure she smiles more, but her movements are artificial fluff that serve no purpose other than to convince judges that she's become Lu Chen or something.

Make no mistake though, I still like this better than her first SP.

I'm personally not blown away by either of Wagner or Gold's SPs. Gold's SP is certainly less awkward looking than her previous SP this season. But, oh my, Gold's lutz... it's the best lutz we've seen from a US woman since Tonya Harding... it's absolutely massive! :eek:

Can Gracie Gold finally win US Nationals ?

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