ISU Championships Predictions Game | Golden Skate

ISU Championships Predictions Game

CaroLiza_fan

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***NEW 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] ROUND ADDED: OLYMPIC TEAM EVENT***

***THESE ARE THE FINAL RULES***

After the success of the GP Series Predictions Game and the National Championships Predictions Game, now it is the turn of the ISU Championships Predictions Game.


The rules for the ISU Championships Predictions Game are slightly different to the rules for the previous Predictions Games.

The first 2 rounds of the ISU Championships Predictions Game (the European Championships and 4 Continents Championships) are going to follow the same rules as the National Championships Predictions Game (which largely followed the rules of the GP Predictions Game).

tulosai spelt out the rules very clearly at the start of the GP Game, so the only change I have made to the original post is to re-word Rule 1 to reflect the that each event will have its own predictions thread, and to remove references to "Grand Prix"! To make my changes to the original clear, I have italicised them:

First, huge thank you to Macassar88 who came up with this idea last year!!

Rules (pretty much the same as last year):

1. Guess the top 6 finisher in each discipline at each Championship.
Each event will have it's own dedicated thread in which to make predictions. For handiness, I will provide a list of the entries in the first post in each of these threads.


2. Only the top 5 guesses of each person will be scored. The 6th person you guess will be an alternate in case one of the 5 skaters you pick withdraws or can't compete at the last minute.

3. You can change or make your predictions until one hour before the first event at each Championship starts. If the pairs are first and they start at 7pm EST, you have until 6pm EST to make ALL predictions

Scoring

Scoring is going to be different than last year. Please note I'm still open to input on this and let me know if you have questions/ it is not clear.

What I propose that that each correct guess is worth 15 points. If you guess Mao will be first and she is first, that is 15 points. If you guess Mirai is 5th and she is 5th, that is 15 points.

Each guess that is one placement off is worth 10 points. If you guess Ashley is 2nd and she is 1st, you get 10 points. If you guess Gracie is 5th and she is 6th, you get 10 points.

Each guess that is two placements off is worth 5 points. If you guess Akiko is 4th and she in 2nd, you get 5 points. If you guess Tukt is 3rd and she is 5th you get 5 points.

I hope this will accomplish several good things: It will hopefully ensure that each discipline and each event have equal weight in your final score. Men won't be more important than ladies because they are worth more points, and 4 Continents won't be more important than Europeans because the judges are scoring higher (for example). It will make it so that each guess everyone makes is equally important and can be equally harmful. It will also hopefully make the scoring easier for the scorers.


During the National Championships Predictions Game, there were a number of players that were caught out by the start time for Japanese and Chinese Nationals, and so ended up submitting their entries late.

So that these players were not handicapped for the rest of the Game, but at the same time keeping it fair for the rest of the players, the following amendment was made to the rules:

In the event of predictions being submitted late, only those predictions for competitions that have not yet started will count.

So, using the Japanese SP timetable (Dance, then Pairs, then Men's and finally Ladies) as an example:

If you submit your predictions in between Pairs and Men's, then your predictions for BOTH Men's and Ladies will count towards the Game.​

If you submit your predictions during the Men's competition (even if your skaters have not yet taken to the ice), then ONLY your predictions for Ladies will count towards the Game.​

This amendment needed further clarification due to a situation that arose at Chinese Nationals.

At the time, I just explained in the Chinese Nationals Predictions thread why we had made the decision we did. But now, for the new Predictions Game, I have decided to put it into formal rules.

In the event of a player submitting their entries on time, but accidentally putting the same name down twice, the player will be notified and will be given up to the start of that category’s Short Programme to change one of the names.

After all, the scorers do not know which prediction for that skater is correct. And it would be highly unfair, not to mention highly controversial, if the scorers were to pick one prediction to count over the other.

If the player fixes the mistake by the start of that category’s Short Programme, then all predictions will be counted for the scoring.

If the player does not fix the mistake by start of that category’s Short Programme, we will proceed in one of the following ways:

If one of the names DOES get changed before either of the skaters involved starts their Short Programme, then the prediction that was changed will be excluded from the scoring, but the other prediction will be counted.

(The reasoning behind this is that, strictly speaking, FIVE of the predictions were correctly submitted on time. And it would be unfair to exclude FIVE predictions that were correctly submitted on time just because ONE prediction was submitted late).

If NEITHER of the names is changed by the time that skater starts their Short Programme, both predictions for that skater will be excluded from the scoring, but the predictions for the other skaters will be counted.

(The reasoning behind this is that, strictly speaking, the other FOUR predictions were correctly submitted on time. And it would be unfair to exclude FOUR predictions that were correctly submitted on time just because there is confusion over the other two predictions).

This situation will probably not arise again. But, if it does, this is probably the fairest way possible to deal with it.

The above amendments will apply for the whole of the ISU Championships Predictions Game.


For the final 2 rounds of the ISU Championships Predictions Game (the Winter Olympics and the World Championships), the rules are the same EXCEPT for the points scored.

As these 2 Championship are the most prestigious in Figure Skating, there will be DOUBLE POINTS on offer. So, it will be:

30 points for guessing right;
20 points for 1 place out;
10 points for 2 places out.


Here are the dates for each round of the ISU Championships Predictions Game

ISU Championships Game

Round 1: European Championships (13[SUP]th[/SUP] –19[SUP]th[/SUP] January 2014)
Round 2: Four Continents (20[SUP]th[/SUP] –26[SUP]th[/SUP] January 2014)
Round 3: Winter Olympics Team Event (6[SUP]th[/SUP] – 9[SUP]th[/SUP] February 2014)
Round 4: Winter Olympics (11[SUP]th[/SUP] – 22[SUP]nd[/SUP] February 2014)
Round 5: World Championships (24[SUP]th[/SUP] – 30[SUP]th[/SUP] March 2014)

This thread will be available for general discussion about the game, and for analysing how the game is progressing. But, please keep the predictions and subsequent discussion about each event in the specific thread for that event:

European Championships: Predictions Game Round 1
Four Continents Championships: Predictions Game Round 2
Winter Olympics Team Event: Predictions Game Round 3
Winter Olympics: Predictions Game Round 4
World Championships: Predictions Game Round 5


Thank you so much to tulosai and the scorers of the GP Game and the Nationals Game for making them such a success. This new game would not have been possible without you!

Good luck everybody!

CaroLiza_fan
 

Li'Kitsu

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Joined
Dec 29, 2011
I'm sorry if I'm just too blind, but do we have a spread sheet already?

And could we include the Team Event at the Olympics in our predictions? :)
 

CaroLiza_fan

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I'm sorry if I'm just too blind, but do we have a spread sheet already?

And could we include the Team Event at the Olympics in our predictions? :)

Ive just sent you and the other scorers an e-mail about the spreadsheet. And I will post the link here as soon as I have it.

As for the Team Event, despite there being umpteen threads about it over the past year or so, I wasn't sure how it was going to work. I thought it was just going to be adding up the scores from the 10 teams' skaters in the individual competitions.

It was only when Plushy started talking about him going to compete in the Team Men's Competition and Kovtun going to compete in the Individual Men's Competition that I realised that the Team event was going to be completely separate!

So, yeah, we could include it!

But which scoring system should we use for the Team event - normal points (like Euros and 4CC) or double (like Olympics and Worlds)?

As the Team Event is an experimental thing, I would suggest normal points.

Before I start making new threads (and re-naming others), how do people feel about including Junior Worlds?

I wasn't going to bother, as there will be lots of skaters we don't know. But, it might be good to have a reason to get to know them, since these are the skaters that will be coming through during the next Olympic cycle.

CaroLiza_fan
 

YesWay

四年もかけて&#
Record Breaker
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Sep 28, 2013
how do people feel about including Junior Worlds?

I wasn't going to bother, as there will be lots of skaters we don't know. But, it might be good to have a reason to get to know them, since these are the skaters that will be coming through during the next Olympic cycle.
Overlooooooooad >_<

Also, Juniors seem a lot more difficult to predict to me... and their inclusion (especially with 2x points) could have a VERY dramatic effect on everyone's scores. I think there is a danger they could turn the "predictions game" into too much of a random lottery...
 

LRK

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 13, 2012
Yeah, I think Junior Worlds' would be something of an overkill... also random in that we haven't included them in anything else yet, so why suddenly start? Anything junior I think should be separate from senior.

I think the Olympic team event is going to be a headscratcher in more ways than one. I mean, how big a "window" will there be for us to be able to predict between the short and long programs? Before the shorts are done, we won't really even know who will be in the long!

ETA - Or scratch that... we're going just to try to predict the end result? Yeah, I'm just so... confused...
 

CaroLiza_fan

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OK, since the general concensus seems to agree with my original thoughts about Junior Worlds, we'll scrap that idea.

Personally, I wasn't keen on the idea either, for the fact that I only know a handful of Junior skaters. But, the fact that the Admins had given Junior Worlds it's own sub-forum made me think that there might be an interest in it.

So, Olympic Team yes, Junior Worlds no.

That'll work for me!

One more thing. I was surprised that there were not more predictions in the Europeans Round of the Game.

Do you think that this was because, after the re-organisation of the forum, the Europeans sub-forum is now in a different location to it's predictions thread?

I'm just asking because if you do think this was the case, I will ask the Mods to delete the Predictions Threads for Worlds and Olympics (well, I would have to be ask for them to re-named anyway if we are adding the Olympic Team Event, as the Round Number will be wrong) and create new ones in the relevant sub-fora.

(It would be too late to do this for Four Continents, as there are already predictions submitted).

CaroLiza_fan
 

CaroLiza_fan

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Hi all,

Sorry I meant to get this done earlier but it slipped my mind, the spreadsheet is now up here : https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Avmfh8nvif_kdFR5a0cxam5ZV1o0U1NhSFZXSWc1c2c&usp=sharing


If you're scoring, please email me or send me a PM and I can give you editing permissions.


Are we including the team event for the Olympics? If so, I can add in another column for it.

Don't worry about it. It's looking good!

Now all we need is to add my name with a few 75's next to it... (somehow, I don't think that's going to happen!) ;) :biggrin: :laugh:

Yes, now that I know for definite that it is a stand-alone event (how did I miss that until now!), we ARE including the Olympic Team Event. I'll be creating the thread some time over the next few days, so you can go ahead and add the column to the spreadsheet as well.

As for the e-mail addresses, I've just sent you a message.

Oh, it feels like the countdown to the Olympics is real now!

CaroLiza_fan
 

LRK

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 13, 2012
The Team Event - which I confess continues to confuse me - are we going to predict by country?
 

CaroLiza_fan

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The Team Event - which I confess continues to confuse me - are we going to predict by country?

Don't worry - I was thoroughly confused as well!

From what I picked up from looking at the entries on Wikipedia, each country is represented by only one skater per category.

So, what I propose is that we predict the skaters for each category as normal, and then do a country prediction for the overall results.

That would mean that we would have 5 predictions lists, rather than the normal 4.

This is probably the easiest way of dealing with the Team Event.

Incidentally, I have now created the thread for the Team Event. It can be found here:

Winter Olympics Team Event: Predictions Game Round 3

Hope this clarifies things a bit!

CaroLiza_fan
 

YesWay

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Don't worry - I was thoroughly confused as well!

From what I picked up from looking at the entries on Wikipedia, each country is represented by only one skater per category.

So, what I propose is that we predict the skaters for each category as normal, and then do a country prediction for the overall results.

That would mean that we would have 5 predictions lists, rather than the normal 4.

This is probably the easiest way of dealing with the Team Event.

Incidentally, I have now created the thread for the Team Event. It can be found here:

Winter Olympics Team Event: Predictions Game Round 3

Hope this clarifies things a bit!

CaroLiza_fan
Wow. That's pretty tricky. I thought we would just name the countries.

Aren't some countries trying to keep their Team skaters' names secret until the last moment, to avoid revealing their tactics/strategy? If so, that's going to make it difficult/impossible to get our predictions in, in time.

How do we name our alts? If someone withdraws due to illness or injury, it's not a simple matter of who you think is the next best skater, like the other prediction games: Your "next best skater" may not be from the same country/team, and not eligible to replace the one who withdrew!
 

CaroLiza_fan

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Wow. That's pretty tricky. I thought we would just name the countries.

Aren't some countries trying to keep their Team skaters' names secret until the last moment, to avoid revealing their tactics/strategy? If so, that's going to make it difficult/impossible to get our predictions in, in time.

How do we name our alts? If someone withdraws due to illness or injury, it's not a simple matter of who you think is the next best skater, like the other prediction games: Your "next best skater" may not be from the same country/team, and not eligible to replace the one who withdrew!

I was kinda assuming that all competitors that were doing the Team Event would be announced well in advance of the competition starting.

And you can't really do predictions for each category unless you know exactly who is skating.

So, maybe it would be best just to only do a country prediction for the overall result.

It's a big disappointment that they teams are doing it this way, as I for one had been looking forward to making predictions in all the categories!

Dare I ask when Euros and 4CCs will be scored?

I've just replied to a message from another member about the same issue, so I'll forward that message to you too.

But, to answer your question - I hope soon! ;)

CaroLiza_fan
 

YesWay

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I was kinda assuming that all competitors that were doing the Team Event would be announced well in advance of the competition starting.
This may be of interest (from How figure skating's new team event will work by PJ Kwong):

"All 10 nations will have skaters take the ice for the short program but only the top five will continue on to skate the free.

In Canada’s case, there are three entries in each of the men, ice dance and pair events, and two for the women. Skate Canada will announce which skaters will skate the short program no later than 10 a.m. the day before their discipline’s event.

Presuming Canadian skaters end up in the top five after the short, Skate Canada will announce within 10 minutes who will skate the free.

For nations with two or more entries in a discipline, they can elect to use up to two substitutions heading into the free. For example, Russia has qualified only one man for the Olympics, so he’ll have to skate both the short and the free. Canada, on the other hand, has three men so it is possible for Skater A to skate the short and Skater B to skate the free."​

This all sounds like we may not know which skaters will be competing until the day before their event... at least for the short, but maybe the free as well. (I don't know how much is Skate Canada's choice, and how much is Olympic-imposed deadlines).
 

alebi

Medalist
Joined
Jan 11, 2014
I couldn't sleep because of the impossible prediction in every category of the Team Event LOOL :laugh: :think:
I agree that a prediction by country sounds like the easiest thing :agree: :)
 

YesWay

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With only 1 week until the start of the Team Event...

Can we have confirmation of what we should be predicting?
Is it just the names of the countries? Or something more than that?

PS. there needs to be a "Team" column in the Olympics page of the spreadsheet!
 

CaroLiza_fan

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With only 1 week until the start of the Team Event...

Can we have confirmation of what we should be predicting?
Is it just the names of the countries? Or something more than that?

PS. there needs to be a "Team" column in the Olympics page of the spreadsheet!

Since there is still confusion over just who is competing in each category, the predictions will be for the overall order for the countries competing.

As for the column, I'll remind pitterpatter that it still needs to be added.

CaroLiza_fan
 

pitterpatter

On the Ice
Joined
Oct 25, 2012
Team Event for the Olympics has been added, just to clarify, predictions will have to be made only for the overall country result. If we change to predicting for each discipline, let me know and I'll make a new competition spreadsheet for it. :)
 
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