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Thread: Ashley Wagner's chance of an Olympics Medal after Nationals

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    Ashley Wagner's chance of an Olympics Medal after Nationals

    looks like Gracie is slowly fulfilling her potential
    They made a huge statement with Gracie as their Golden Girl with the score she got
    Their Girl with the highest and best chance for an Olympics medal

    the early signs Wagner showed in GPF have taken its tall, she looks to be running out of steam leading to Sochi,
    Will Wagner make the Olympics team even if she places 4th or 5th like Daisuke ?

    looks like the US judges are looking for the highest Technical Content at the Nationals
    where Wagner falls short with an unstable 3-3
    if she doesn't win Nationals, her reputation from the international judges will go down the stocks a bit
    at the GPF she almost got tied to PCS with Sotnikova

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    I'd say wait until the LP. And even then, you're basing it off one competition instead of looking at the whole season.

    Julia - like Wagner - also made a major mistake in the SP at Russian nationals, and it cost her the win overall. Wagner's error might also cost her the win, even if she wins the FS (like what happened with Julia). In any case, Sotnikova is currently the #1 Russian skater.

    Mao also came 3rd in her Nationals, and would be pushed off the podium by Suzuki/Murakami (and Kim). Suzuki is currently the #1 Japanese skater.

    So, are we to assume then that because Sotnikova and Suzuki won Nationals, then Julia and Mao's reputations have gone down in the stocks such that they're no longer medal favourites? Because that's what you're assuming about Wagner (and that's IF she loses to Gold -- bear in mind, Gold has imploded when she's had the lead twice this year).

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    I agree that Julia, Mao and maybe Ashleys chances at olympics podium have gone down after Nationals. They are no longer considered the top girls of their country. Even if they are clean at olympics, i believe they have a less chance of making that podium because they couldnt win nationals.

    Its a similar situation with Weaver/Poje. They are arguably the 3rd best team in the world, but because they are number 2 in their country they get slightly lower marks IMO

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    Quote Originally Posted by sk8ingcoach View Post
    I agree that Julia, Mao and maybe Ashleys chances at olympics podium have gone down after Nationals. They are no longer considered the top girls of their country. Even if they are clean at olympics, i believe they have a less chance of making that podium because they couldnt win nationals.

    Its a similar situation with Weaver/Poje. They are arguably the 3rd best team in the world, but because they are number 2 in their country they get slightly lower marks IMO

    What?! So because these 3 ladies didn't win the one competition this season that doesn't really count in terms of points, they have no chance of making the podium at Sochi even if they're 100% clean?

    I can guarantee you if Mao brings it 100% in Sochi, she will likely be standing at the top of the podium. And if Julia is clean, she also will be on the podium. Nationals performances won't effect there Sochi scores if they bring it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Franklin99 View Post
    What?! So because these 3 ladies didn't win the one competition this season that doesn't really count in terms of points, they have no chance of making the podium at Sochi even if they're 100% clean?

    I can guarantee you if Mao brings it 100% in Sochi, she will likely be standing at the top of the podium. And if Julia is clean, she also will be on the podium. Nationals performances won't effect there Sochi scores if they bring it.

    I did not say no chance. I said slightly less chance. When they go out for olympic, judges are not going to be thinking " oh this is going to be great, they will be on the podium", they will be thinking " she is not going to land two 3A's". Yes if they are clean im sure they probably will be on the podium, but will the slightly less components push her from gold to silver, or silver to bronze

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    Mao is still Japan #1.
    Julia is never Russia #1.
    The US Fed's been itching to promote Gold to US #1 and they are willing to do anything to give it to her.

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    It is not over until it is over when it comes to the results. Both Lipinski and Hughes won the Olympics without winning Nationals right before it. Hughes didn't have an amazing track record, but was on the night of the Olympics. As a side note, I didn't realize Caroline Zhang and Rachael Flatt were still skating. I looked at the results from the short program and they are at the bottom...19th and 20th...wow!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Snapper View Post
    It is not over until it is over when it comes to the results. Both Lipinski and Hughes won the Olympics without winning Nationals right before it. Hughes didn't have an amazing track record, but was on the night of the Olympics.
    Very good point! Consistently, somebody who hasn't won Nationals will place higher at Olympics or Worlds (everyone touted Cohen to get her first World title when Kimmie Meissner skated really well to take the win). This whole "#1 lady" thing is kind of bs, because on any given day, a lot of countries waver between who their best skater is.

    Regardless of whether Gold win Nationals, it still has yet to be seen if Gold can deliver internationally an SP+LP at a level worthy of the Olympic podium. At least Wagner has consistently shown in the past few seasons what it takes to be amongst the top skaters in the World, including medals at the past two GPFs.

    Still, when it comes to Wagner/Gold, like Sotnikova/Lipnitskaia, you wouldn't exactly bet your house on one of them winning over the other.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    I'd say wait until the LP. And even then, you're basing it off one competition instead of looking at the whole season.

    Julia - like Wagner - also made a major mistake in the SP at Russian nationals, and it cost her the win overall. Wagner's error might also cost her the win, even if she wins the FS (like what happened with Julia). In any case, Sotnikova is currently the #1 Russian skater.

    Mao also came 3rd in her Nationals, and would be pushed off the podium by Suzuki/Murakami (and Kim). Suzuki is currently the #1 Japanese skater.

    So, are we to assume then that because Sotnikova and Suzuki won Nationals, then Julia and Mao's reputations have gone down in the stocks such that they're no longer medal favourites? Because that's what you're assuming about Wagner (and that's IF she loses to Gold -- bear in mind, Gold has imploded when she's had the lead twice this year).
    This

    ONE competition, actually, one skate, cannot ruin a skaters chances or reputation, and it's ridiculous to suggest otherwise.
    I'm not a Mao Asada fan but even I can't deny that she's Japan's number one lady and still one of the best shots at Olympic gold. Even if she'd have come in last at nationals, that doesn't cancel out 4+ years of fantastic international results.

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    Quote Originally Posted by lovegoodxo View Post
    Even if she'd have come in last at nationals, that doesn't cancel out 4+ years of fantastic international results.
    In 1998, Laetitia Hubert finished last at the Nations Cup, 2 weeks later she beat Tara Lipinski, winning the Trophée Lalique, and a few weeks later she finished 20th at the 98 Olympics... I'll admit, she was even more representative of what you wrote than one could ever imagine! ... ...

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    Quote Originally Posted by sk8ingcoach View Post
    I did not say no chance. I said slightly less chance. When they go out for olympic, judges are not going to be thinking " oh this is going to be great, they will be on the podium", they will be thinking " she is not going to land two 3A's". Yes if they are clean im sure they probably will be on the podium, but will the slightly less components push her from gold to silver, or silver to bronze
    While Akiko had the skate of her life at Nationals, her track record isn't that great to assure judges that she will deliver. One of the reasons she is underscored is because she is so inconsistent. Being great at one competition, then doing poorly at the next, like last year's Worlds. Also, she didn't make GPF, whereas Mao did, and was even beaten by a few Russian skaters at her GP events. In contrast, Hanyu has really replaced Daisuke as the no.1 skater from his country because he has consistently shown to be the better competitor.

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    Quote Originally Posted by sky_fly20 View Post
    looks like Gracie is slowly fulfilling her potential
    They made a huge statement with Gracie as their Golden Girl with the score she got
    Their Girl with the highest and best chance for an Olympics medal

    the early signs Wagner showed in GPF have taken its tall, she looks to be running out of steam leading to Sochi,
    Will Wagner make the Olympics team even if she places 4th or 5th like Daisuke ?

    looks like the US judges are looking for the highest Technical Content at the Nationals
    where Wagner falls short with an unstable 3-3
    if she doesn't win Nationals, her reputation from the international judges will go down the stocks a bit
    at the GPF she almost got tied to PCS with Sotnikova


    Unless you are psychic and can see into the future, why don't you let them actually finish the competition before starting this thread. Just in case you don't know, the winner isn't crowned until the competition is over. Gracie won the SP and kudos to her, but the job isn't finished yet. Winning the SP doesn't equal winning the title and not winning the SP doesn't equal losing the title either.

    In short the competition is still in progress so why don't we wait to see where everyone places before we have this discussion...

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    I'm not sure it's correct to compare Mao and Ashley in their countries. Mao is considered to be almost legend, so nothing happened when she've lost Nationals.
    On the contrary, Ashley's position of #1 is not so strong. If Gracie proves she's really stronger as a skater and can earn better points, she has a good chance to be #1 of Team Usa in Sochi.

    PS. Even more complicated situation in Russia, many people consider Sotnikova to be a fake winner of Nationals.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Red Helicopter View Post
    PS. Even more complicated situation in Russia, many people consider Sotnikova to be a fake winner of Nationals.
    I wonder if these same people consider Lipnitskaia to be the fake winner of Cup of Russia?

    Certainly the vast majority of people on this board are fine with the results of Russian nationals.

    In terms of comparing Mao and Wagner. As much as Mao is a legend in comparison to Akiko, Ashley has been far more successful in comparison to Gold. The point being, you can't really negate the results (especially this season) of Mao or Ashley just because they lost at Nationals (if Ashley even loses).

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    Never know. I like Ashley but flukes happen all the time at the Olympics.

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