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Thread: Ashley Wagner's chance of an Olympics Medal after Nationals

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    Ashley Wagner's chance of an Olympics Medal after Nationals

    looks like Gracie is slowly fulfilling her potential
    They made a huge statement with Gracie as their Golden Girl with the score she got
    Their Girl with the highest and best chance for an Olympics medal

    the early signs Wagner showed in GPF have taken its tall, she looks to be running out of steam leading to Sochi,
    Will Wagner make the Olympics team even if she places 4th or 5th like Daisuke ?

    looks like the US judges are looking for the highest Technical Content at the Nationals
    where Wagner falls short with an unstable 3-3
    if she doesn't win Nationals, her reputation from the international judges will go down the stocks a bit
    at the GPF she almost got tied to PCS with Sotnikova

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    I'd say wait until the LP. And even then, you're basing it off one competition instead of looking at the whole season.

    Julia - like Wagner - also made a major mistake in the SP at Russian nationals, and it cost her the win overall. Wagner's error might also cost her the win, even if she wins the FS (like what happened with Julia). In any case, Sotnikova is currently the #1 Russian skater.

    Mao also came 3rd in her Nationals, and would be pushed off the podium by Suzuki/Murakami (and Kim). Suzuki is currently the #1 Japanese skater.

    So, are we to assume then that because Sotnikova and Suzuki won Nationals, then Julia and Mao's reputations have gone down in the stocks such that they're no longer medal favourites? Because that's what you're assuming about Wagner (and that's IF she loses to Gold -- bear in mind, Gold has imploded when she's had the lead twice this year).

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    I agree that Julia, Mao and maybe Ashleys chances at olympics podium have gone down after Nationals. They are no longer considered the top girls of their country. Even if they are clean at olympics, i believe they have a less chance of making that podium because they couldnt win nationals.

    Its a similar situation with Weaver/Poje. They are arguably the 3rd best team in the world, but because they are number 2 in their country they get slightly lower marks IMO

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    Quote Originally Posted by sk8ingcoach View Post
    I agree that Julia, Mao and maybe Ashleys chances at olympics podium have gone down after Nationals. They are no longer considered the top girls of their country. Even if they are clean at olympics, i believe they have a less chance of making that podium because they couldnt win nationals.

    Its a similar situation with Weaver/Poje. They are arguably the 3rd best team in the world, but because they are number 2 in their country they get slightly lower marks IMO

    What?! So because these 3 ladies didn't win the one competition this season that doesn't really count in terms of points, they have no chance of making the podium at Sochi even if they're 100% clean?

    I can guarantee you if Mao brings it 100% in Sochi, she will likely be standing at the top of the podium. And if Julia is clean, she also will be on the podium. Nationals performances won't effect there Sochi scores if they bring it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Franklin99 View Post
    What?! So because these 3 ladies didn't win the one competition this season that doesn't really count in terms of points, they have no chance of making the podium at Sochi even if they're 100% clean?

    I can guarantee you if Mao brings it 100% in Sochi, she will likely be standing at the top of the podium. And if Julia is clean, she also will be on the podium. Nationals performances won't effect there Sochi scores if they bring it.

    I did not say no chance. I said slightly less chance. When they go out for olympic, judges are not going to be thinking " oh this is going to be great, they will be on the podium", they will be thinking " she is not going to land two 3A's". Yes if they are clean im sure they probably will be on the podium, but will the slightly less components push her from gold to silver, or silver to bronze

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    Mao is still Japan #1.
    Julia is never Russia #1.
    The US Fed's been itching to promote Gold to US #1 and they are willing to do anything to give it to her.

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    Quote Originally Posted by sk8ingcoach View Post
    I did not say no chance. I said slightly less chance. When they go out for olympic, judges are not going to be thinking " oh this is going to be great, they will be on the podium", they will be thinking " she is not going to land two 3A's". Yes if they are clean im sure they probably will be on the podium, but will the slightly less components push her from gold to silver, or silver to bronze
    While Akiko had the skate of her life at Nationals, her track record isn't that great to assure judges that she will deliver. One of the reasons she is underscored is because she is so inconsistent. Being great at one competition, then doing poorly at the next, like last year's Worlds. Also, she didn't make GPF, whereas Mao did, and was even beaten by a few Russian skaters at her GP events. In contrast, Hanyu has really replaced Daisuke as the no.1 skater from his country because he has consistently shown to be the better competitor.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    I'd say wait until the LP. And even then, you're basing it off one competition instead of looking at the whole season.

    Julia - like Wagner - also made a major mistake in the SP at Russian nationals, and it cost her the win overall. Wagner's error might also cost her the win, even if she wins the FS (like what happened with Julia). In any case, Sotnikova is currently the #1 Russian skater.

    Mao also came 3rd in her Nationals, and would be pushed off the podium by Suzuki/Murakami (and Kim). Suzuki is currently the #1 Japanese skater.

    So, are we to assume then that because Sotnikova and Suzuki won Nationals, then Julia and Mao's reputations have gone down in the stocks such that they're no longer medal favourites? Because that's what you're assuming about Wagner (and that's IF she loses to Gold -- bear in mind, Gold has imploded when she's had the lead twice this year).
    This

    ONE competition, actually, one skate, cannot ruin a skaters chances or reputation, and it's ridiculous to suggest otherwise.
    I'm not a Mao Asada fan but even I can't deny that she's Japan's number one lady and still one of the best shots at Olympic gold. Even if she'd have come in last at nationals, that doesn't cancel out 4+ years of fantastic international results.

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    Quote Originally Posted by lovegoodxo View Post
    Even if she'd have come in last at nationals, that doesn't cancel out 4+ years of fantastic international results.
    In 1998, Laetitia Hubert finished last at the Nations Cup, 2 weeks later she beat Tara Lipinski, winning the Trophée Lalique, and a few weeks later she finished 20th at the 98 Olympics... I'll admit, she was even more representative of what you wrote than one could ever imagine! ... ...

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    Rejoicing in the land of Kwan kwanatic's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sky_fly20 View Post
    looks like Gracie is slowly fulfilling her potential
    They made a huge statement with Gracie as their Golden Girl with the score she got
    Their Girl with the highest and best chance for an Olympics medal

    the early signs Wagner showed in GPF have taken its tall, she looks to be running out of steam leading to Sochi,
    Will Wagner make the Olympics team even if she places 4th or 5th like Daisuke ?

    looks like the US judges are looking for the highest Technical Content at the Nationals
    where Wagner falls short with an unstable 3-3
    if she doesn't win Nationals, her reputation from the international judges will go down the stocks a bit
    at the GPF she almost got tied to PCS with Sotnikova


    Unless you are psychic and can see into the future, why don't you let them actually finish the competition before starting this thread. Just in case you don't know, the winner isn't crowned until the competition is over. Gracie won the SP and kudos to her, but the job isn't finished yet. Winning the SP doesn't equal winning the title and not winning the SP doesn't equal losing the title either.

    In short the competition is still in progress so why don't we wait to see where everyone places before we have this discussion...

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    Quote Originally Posted by kwanatic View Post


    Unless you are psychic and can see into the future, why don't you let them actually finish the competition before starting this thread. Just in case you don't know, the winner isn't crowned until the competition is over. Gracie won the sp and kudos to her, but the job isn't finished yet. Winning the sp doesn't equal winning the title and not winning the sp doesn't equal losing the title either.

    In short the competition is still in progress so why don't we wait to see where everyone places before we have this discussion...
    ditto!!!!!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    I wonder if these same people consider Lipnitskaia to be the fake winner of Cup of Russia?
    Maybe some of them do.

    Certainly the vast majority of people on this board are fine with the results of Russian nationals.
    Ultimate thuth doesn't belong to this board

    In terms of comparing Mao and Wagner. As much as Mao is a legend in comparison to Akiko, Ashley has been far more successful in comparison to Gold. The point being, you can't really negate the results (especially this season) of Mao or Ashley just because they lost at Nationals (if Ashley even loses).
    I don't really think you're right, Ashley has no results that could be called really successfull. Yes, she was definitely #1 before this day but the gap between her and Gold is not so huge as in Japan between Mao and others.
    You should also consider skater's potential to get better points. And definitely Gold with her jumping content is a favourite from this point of view. If she will prove she can perform it and earn higher points, why not become #1?

    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman View Post
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    Quote Originally Posted by Red Helicopter View Post
    I don't really think you're right, Ashley has no results that could be called really successfull. Yes, she was definitely #1 before this day but the gap between her and Gold is not so huge as in Japan between Mao and others.
    If you look at results rather than public perception, the gap between Ashley Wagner and Gracie Gold is similar, if not greater, than the one between Mao Asada and Akiko Suzuki. Gold's last win at any level of competition was when she became the junior national champion at the same time that Wagner won her first national title (2012). Since then, Wagner has won 4CC, three grand prix events, and another national title, and has won a number of other medals, including at the most recent GPF. In that same time frame, Gold has two GP medals and two senior B medals. Wagner is clearly the more successful international skater at this point.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Buttercup View Post
    If you look at results rather than public perception, the gap between Ashley Wagner and Gracie Gold is similar, if not greater, than the one between Mao Asada and Akiko Suzuki. Gold's last win at any level of competition was when she became the junior national champion at the same time that Wagner won her first national title (2012). Since then, Wagner has won 4CC, three grand prix events, and another national title, and has won a number of other medals, including at the most recent GPF. In that same time frame, Gold has two GP medals and two senior B medals. Wagner is clearly the more successful international skater at this point.
    Look: in Japan you can say that there's Mao - and there're all the others. Can you say the same in USA about Ashley? I don't think so.
    You really think this Wagner's level is really the one that is expected from USA's #1? I think she became #1 just because of lack of another good skaters in USA.

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    Rejoicing in the land of Kwan kwanatic's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sky_fly20 View Post
    Sotnikova has overrated PCS, something the judges should be ashamed of, who is she the heir to European Carolina Kostner that they love giving her huge PCS so much?
    Sotnikova's PCS aren't as overrated as you'd like to think. Anyone with eyeballs (and an objective mind) can see that she meets the PCS requirements quite well. Give credit where credit is due...though I realize that's pretty much impossible for you to do.

    Quote Originally Posted by sky_fly20 View Post
    If you cant land the jumps, PCS should be affected, getting a 60+ PCS with 3 falls is just wrong
    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    Oh really? And how do you feel about Lipnitskaia getting 63.64 PCS at CoR with a fall, multiple doubled jumps, and just 3 successful triples?
    Yeah, explain that why don't you...

    Quote Originally Posted by sky_fly20 View Post
    I already reminded you a scenario, Czisny had a good 2011 GP then dropped the stocks since the GPF, did her GP wins mean anything ? No Wagner even beat her at Nationals, this looks a repeat scenario with Gold now placing ahead of Wagner
    then after nationals, was Alissa a contender for Worlds ? she wasn't, she placed 22nd !
    Your reference to Alissa does not illustrate your point. Alissa didn't lose her rep with the judges after one competition...that happened over the course of the season where she consistently under-performed and culminated with her disastrous showing at worlds where she placed 22nd b/c she fell about 7 times. Of course Ashley beat her...she didn't even put up a fight!

    You may want to dig for a better example than that...


    Quote Originally Posted by Red Helicopter View Post
    I don't really think you're right, Ashley has no results that could be called really successfull.
    By US ladies standards, Ashley is THE most successful lady of this quad. She and Alissa are the only two US ladies to stand on top of a podium at a major ISU event since 2007. Ashley was a middle-of-the-pack skater for a year after Vancouver but still placed top 5 at all of her events. After 2012 she started climbing and she has maintained her positioning since.

    Next to the success of some of the other world competitors it may not look like much, but in the US, Ashley is the best competitor for the ladies since the days of Michelle and Sasha. Again, credit needs to be given where credit is due.

    Quote Originally Posted by Red Helicopter View Post
    You should also consider skater's potential to get better points. And definitely Gold with her jumping content is a favourite from this point of view. If she will prove she can perform it and earn higher points, why not become #1?
    It's no secret that Gracie's potential is higher than Ashley's, but in this sport potential counts for nothing if you can't deliver when it's go-time. No one is questioning whether or not Gracie should be #1 b/c she should...but she has to earn it. She hasn't done anything yet! Ashley has kicked her butt consistently over the last two seasons. One clean SP from Gracie does not erase the last 3 years of success Ashley's had.

    Ashley won nationals convincingly in 2012 and then proved that her win wasn't a fluke by winning 4CC and placing 4th at worlds...since then she's consistently performed well, stood on every single podium except for worlds last year where she placed 5th...and still beat out Gracie.

    To be the #1 national skater you first have to establish yourself as the #1 by winning nationals and then you have to defend your position by continuing to place above the rest of your teammates otherwise your win is going to look like nothing more than a fluke.

    Quote Originally Posted by Red Helicopter View Post
    You really think this Wagner's level is really the one that is expected from USA's #1? I think she became #1 just because of lack of another good skaters in USA.
    Doesn't change the fact that she was still the best the US had to offer. No one has stepped up to challenge Ashley for it. Gracie made the first step but in order to become #1 she needs to deliver in the FS...and then back up her win by being the best US skater in Sochi.

    Very simply put: "If you want it, come get it"

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