Ashley Wagner's chance of an Olympics Medal after Nationals

Red Helicopter said:

I don't really think you're right, Ashley has no results that could be called really successfull. Yes, she was definitely #1 before this day but the gap between her and Gold is not so huge as in Japan between Mao and others.

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If you look at results rather than public perception, the gap between Ashley Wagner and Gracie Gold is similar, if not greater, than the one between Mao Asada and Akiko Suzuki. Gold's last win at any level of competition was when she became the junior national champion at the same time that Wagner won her first national title (2012). Since then, Wagner has won 4CC, three grand prix events, and another national title, and has won a number of other medals, including at the most recent GPF. In that same time frame, Gold has two GP medals and two senior B medals. Wagner is clearly the more successful international skater at this point.

Buttercup said:

If you look at results rather than public perception, the gap between Ashley Wagner and Gracie Gold is similar, if not greater, than the one between Mao Asada and Akiko Suzuki. Gold's last win at any level of competition was when she became the junior national champion at the same time that Wagner won her first national title (2012). Since then, Wagner has won 4CC, three grand prix events, and another national title, and has won a number of other medals, including at the most recent GPF. In that same time frame, Gold has two GP medals and two senior B medals. Wagner is clearly the more successful international skater at this point.

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Look: in Japan you can say that there's Mao - and there're all the others. Can you say the same in USA about Ashley? I don't think so.
You really think this Wagner's level is really the one that is expected from USA's #1? I think she became #1 just because of lack of another good skaters in USA.

sky_fly20 said:

Sotnikova has overrated PCS, something the judges should be ashamed of, who is she the heir to European Carolina Kostner that they love giving her huge PCS so much?

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Sotnikova's PCS aren't as overrated as you'd like to think. Anyone with eyeballs (and an objective mind) can see that she meets the PCS requirements quite well. Give credit where credit is due...though I realize that's pretty much impossible for you to do.

sky_fly20 said:

If you cant land the jumps, PCS should be affected, getting a 60+ PCS with 3 falls is just wrong

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CanadianSkaterGuy said:

Oh really? And how do you feel about Lipnitskaia getting 63.64 PCS at CoR with a fall, multiple doubled jumps, and just 3 successful triples?

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Yeah, explain that why don't you...:think:

sky_fly20 said:

I already reminded you a scenario, Czisny had a good 2011 GP then dropped the stocks since the GPF, did her GP wins mean anything ? No Wagner even beat her at Nationals, this looks a repeat scenario with Gold now placing ahead of Wagner
then after nationals, was Alissa a contender for Worlds ? she wasn't, she placed 22nd !

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Your reference to Alissa does not illustrate your point. Alissa didn't lose her rep with the judges after one competition...that happened over the course of the season where she consistently under-performed and culminated with her disastrous showing at worlds where she placed 22nd b/c she fell about 7 times. Of course Ashley beat her...she didn't even put up a fight!

You may want to dig for a better example than that...:sarcasm:

Red Helicopter said:

I don't really think you're right, Ashley has no results that could be called really successfull.

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By US ladies standards, Ashley is THE most successful lady of this quad. She and Alissa are the only two US ladies to stand on top of a podium at a major ISU event since 2007. Ashley was a middle-of-the-pack skater for a year after Vancouver but still placed top 5 at all of her events. After 2012 she started climbing and she has maintained her positioning since.

Next to the success of some of the other world competitors it may not look like much, but in the US, Ashley is the best competitor for the ladies since the days of Michelle and Sasha. Again, credit needs to be given where credit is due.

Red Helicopter said:

You should also consider skater's potential to get better points. And definitely Gold with her jumping content is a favourite from this point of view. If she will prove she can perform it and earn higher points, why not become #1?

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It's no secret that Gracie's potential is higher than Ashley's, but in this sport potential counts for nothing if you can't deliver when it's go-time. No one is questioning whether or not Gracie should be #1 b/c she should...but she has to earn it. She hasn't done anything yet! Ashley has kicked her butt consistently over the last two seasons. One clean SP from Gracie does not erase the last 3 years of success Ashley's had.

Ashley won nationals convincingly in 2012 and then proved that her win wasn't a fluke by winning 4CC and placing 4th at worlds...since then she's consistently performed well, stood on every single podium except for worlds last year where she placed 5th...and still beat out Gracie.

To be the #1 national skater you first have to establish yourself as the #1 by winning nationals and then you have to defend your position by continuing to place above the rest of your teammates otherwise your win is going to look like nothing more than a fluke.

Red Helicopter said:

You really think this Wagner's level is really the one that is expected from USA's #1? I think she became #1 just because of lack of another good skaters in USA.

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Doesn't change the fact that she was still the best the US had to offer. No one has stepped up to challenge Ashley for it. Gracie made the first step but in order to become #1 she needs to deliver in the FS...and then back up her win by being the best US skater in Sochi.

Very simply put: "If you want it, come get it"

CanadianSkaterGuy said:

Oh really? And how do you feel about Lipnitskaia getting 63.64 PCS at CoR with a fall, multiple doubled jumps, and just 3 successful triples?

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Can we say Mao Asada?????

kwanatic said:

Sotnikova's PCS aren't as overrated as you'd like to think. Anyone with eyeballs (and an objective mind) can see that she meets the PCS requirements quite well. Give credit where credit is due...though I realize that's pretty much impossible for you to do.




Yeah, explain that why don't you...:think:



Your reference to Alissa does not illustrate your point. Alissa didn't lose her rep with the judges after one competition...that happened over the course of the season where she consistently under-performed and culminated with her disastrous showing at worlds where she placed 22nd b/c she fell about 7 times. Of course Ashley beat her...she didn't even put up a fight!

You may want to dig for a better example than that...:sarcasm:




By US ladies standards, Ashley is THE most successful lady of this quad. She and Alissa are the only two US ladies to stand on top of a podium at a major ISU event since 2007. Ashley was a middle-of-the-pack skater for a year after Vancouver but still placed top 5 at all of her events. After 2012 she started climbing and she has maintained her positioning since.

Next to the success of some of the other world competitors it may not look like much, but in the US, Ashley is the best competitor for the ladies since the days of Michelle and Sasha. Again, credit needs to be given where credit is due.



It's no secret that Gracie's potential is higher than Ashley's, but in this sport potential counts for nothing if you can't deliver when it's go-time. No one is questioning whether or not Gracie should be #1 b/c she should...but she has to earn it. She hasn't done anything yet! Ashley has kicked her butt consistently over the last two seasons. One clean SP from Gracie does not erase the last 3 years of success Ashley's had.

Ashley won nationals convincingly in 2012 and then proved that her win wasn't a fluke by winning 4CC and placing 4th at worlds...since then she's consistently performed well, stood on every single podium except for worlds last year where she placed 5th...and still beat out Gracie.

To be the #1 national skater you first have to establish yourself as the #1 by winning nationals and then you have to defend your position by continuing to place above the rest of your teammates otherwise your win is going to look like nothing more than a fluke.



Doesn't change the fact that she was still the best the US had to offer. No one has stepped up to challenge Ashley for it. Gracie made the first step but in order to become #1 she needs to deliver in the FS...and then back up her win by being the best US skater in Sochi.

Very simply put: "If you want it, come get it"

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I agree Gracie has huge potential and probably more than Wagner. She is doing great at Nats so far but one performance or competiion doesn't make you NO. 1. Besides both ladies are fairly close at world's last year. Cetainly if GOld wins Nats and oly's we will have a new no 1 American girl so to speak. Both are fine young ladies, pretty and good skaters - I wish them luck.

sky_fly20 said:

Sotnikova has overrated PCS, something the judges should be ashamed of, who is she the heir to European Carolina Kostner that they love giving her huge PCS so much? If you cant land the jumps, PCS should be affected, getting a 60+ PCS with 3 falls is just wrong

Lipnitskaya also cant negate taht when Sotnikova is clean she will always be behind Sotnikova

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Well then, she's the perfect heiress to Kostner. Neither one can skate clean, after all.

And I fixed your sentence for you.

kwanatic said:

Sotnikova's PCS aren't as overrated as you'd like to think. Anyone with eyeballs (and an objective mind) can see that she meets the PCS requirements quite well. Give credit where credit is due...though I realize that's pretty much impossible for you to do.




Yeah, explain that why don't you...:think:



Your reference to Alissa does not illustrate your point. Alissa didn't lose her rep with the judges after one competition...that happened over the course of the season where she consistently under-performed and culminated with her disastrous showing at worlds where she placed 22nd b/c she fell about 7 times. Of course Ashley beat her...she didn't even put up a fight!

You may want to dig for a better example than that...:sarcasm:




By US ladies standards, Ashley is THE most successful lady of this quad. She and Alissa are the only two US ladies to stand on top of a podium at a major ISU event since 2007. Ashley was a middle-of-the-pack skater for a year after Vancouver but still placed top 5 at all of her events. After 2012 she started climbing and she has maintained her positioning since.

Next to the success of some of the other world competitors it may not look like much, but in the US, Ashley is the best competitor for the ladies since the days of Michelle and Sasha. Again, credit needs to be given where credit is due.



It's no secret that Gracie's potential is higher than Ashley's, but in this sport potential counts for nothing if you can't deliver when it's go-time. No one is questioning whether or not Gracie should be #1 b/c she should...but she has to earn it. She hasn't done anything yet! Ashley has kicked her butt consistently over the last two seasons. One clean SP from Gracie does not erase the last 3 years of success Ashley's had.

Ashley won nationals convincingly in 2012 and then proved that her win wasn't a fluke by winning 4CC and placing 4th at worlds...since then she's consistently performed well, stood on every single podium except for worlds last year where she placed 5th...and still beat out Gracie.

To be the #1 national skater you first have to establish yourself as the #1 by winning nationals and then you have to defend your position by continuing to place above the rest of your teammates otherwise your win is going to look like nothing more than a fluke.



Doesn't change the fact that she was still the best the US had to offer. No one has stepped up to challenge Ashley for it. Gracie made the first step but in order to become #1 she needs to deliver in the FS...and then back up her win by being the best US skater in Sochi.

Very simply put: "If you want it, come get it"

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Yes Ashley has had much greater success then Gracie has had over the last couple years but when you look at head to head matchup's Ashley except for the first meeting between the two of them at the 2012 WTT where Ashley beat her by 10 points the last three time they've met Wager has won by 2.27 3.09 and ,57 points. I wouldn't call that kicking someone's ***. Looks to me that Gracie is right there with Wagner and just needs to skate clean to finally beat her.

Skater Boy said:

Can we say Mao Asada?????

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Ashley just didn't look like a world class skater with her short. If I just had come out of long coma and watching skating, I would never have thought she was the defending champion at this event. She didn't appear competitive against the skaters in her own country, let alone the world. The 3/3 was probably brought on much too late in her career and it it hard to understand why her coaches allowed that to happen.

Well, we have to see the free program before we jump to any conclusions and just because those 3 skaters didn't win nationals doesn't mean we should count them out, they can still deliver at Sochi and anything can happen.

kwanatic said:

It's no secret that Gracie's potential is higher than Ashley's, but in this sport potential counts for nothing if you can't deliver when it's go-time. No one is questioning whether or not Gracie should be #1 b/c she should...but she has to earn it. She hasn't done anything yet! Ashley has kicked her butt consistently over the last two seasons. One clean SP from Gracie does not erase the last 3 years of success Ashley's had.

Very simply put: "If you want it, come get it"

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No I didn't say she already got it, I said just that she CAN do it on this nationals. If she'll win LP there's no doubt who will be considered as #1 in Sochi by judges. Whether you like it or not

Minze2001 said:

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I think this is about completely failed LP's with 70 points in PCS.

I don't think a lot of people will agree with me on this, but ill voice my opinion anyway. I have been a fan of Ashley's for a while and I have seen her deal with disappointment and happiness after a good or bad performance. That being said, I would be lying if I said a part of me didn't feel like she did that on purpose. Having 2 of the top 3 go before her, and seeing their results, I think she knew that Gracie has given up her top place before due to crumbling under immense pressure before and mirai somewhat did too last year. After watching her performance, I realized that she didn't look near as disappointed as she should have, having messed up her sp on an Olympic year. She even said she was happy with her placement after. I think that she knows she can't beat Gracie on pure talent, so she'll grab that top spot out from under her when/if she crumbles. Again, just voicing my opinion based on pure gut feeling and observation.

Laybackspin said:

I don't think a lot of people will agree with me on this, but ill voice my opinion anyway. I have been a fan of Ashley's for a while and I have seen her deal with disappointment and happiness after a good or bad performance. That being said, I would be lying if I said a part of me didn't feel like she did that on purpose. Having 2 of the top 3 go before her, and seeing their results, I think she knew that Gracie has given up her top place before due to crumbling under immense pressure before and mirai somewhat did too last year. After watching her performance, I realized that she didn't look near as disappointed as she should have, having messed up her sp on an Olympic year. She even said she was happy with her placement after. I think that she knows she can't beat Gracie on pure talent, so she'll grab that top spot out from under her when/if she crumbles. Again, just voicing my opinion based on pure gut feeling and observation.

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Doesn't say much for being a champion skater if you need to have your competitor crumble so you can move up to win.

I suspect that now Ashley is going to try too hard in the long and , probably, falter. Layback, if what you say is true, she sure is taking quite a gamble. I think Polina is going to be the surprise winner, with two 3/3's in her long. Gracie is probably more worried about her than she is about Ashley.

Please, let her skate before the post mortems. Ashley is a talented fighter with a great LP, the best one we will see tomorrow.

Icey said:

I suspect that now Ashley is going to try too hard in the long and , probably, falter. Layback, if what you say is true, she sure is taking quite a gamble. I think Polina is going to be the surprise winner, with two 3/3's in her long. Gracie is probably more worried about her than she is about Ashley.

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I wouldnt be surprised if she finished 4th overall after the LP
she will be in intense pressure to retain her No.1 rank that has been shifted now to Gracie, and the USFS support for Gracie could be intimidating for Wagner
her two footed or lack of 3-2 or 3-3 will be her downfall

I think we need to wait and see what happens in the LP tonight. My sense is that Diva Wagner will show up in all her glory. I don't know whether she'll win- it's difficult to know given Gracie's lead- but I can't imagine she won't make a strong case for being on the Olympic team. My guess is that the SP golden girls, Gracie and Polina, won't do as well tonight as they did on Thursday. I bet there will be a shake-up in the standings and at least one skater not currently in the top 3 will end up on the team.

amc987 said:

I think we need to wait and see what happens in the LP tonight. My sense is that Diva Wagner will show up in all her glory. I don't know whether she'll win- it's difficult to know given Gracie's lead- but I can't imagine she won't make a strong case for being on the Olympic team. My guess is that the SP golden girls, Gracie and Polina, won't do as well tonight as they did on Thursday. I bet there will be a shake-up in the standings and at least one skater not currently in the top 3 will end up on the team.

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well there is new Diva in town and has the backing of the USFS full time
and its not Wagner

I remember Dick Button use to say that US Nationals was the hardest competition of the season for most skaters because you are competing against your peers. I think this is the case for Ashley.

I'm very worried she will stay in fourth. If the girls in front nail there programs they have more technical difficulty. I'm not sure she came make up enough ground in component scoring. It's going to be a long day for me.

Welcome, Laybackspin. Thanks for joining us. Post often, post long!

However… No, I don't think Ashley (or any skater) would deliberately mess up to try to psych out the other guy.