Kaetlyn Osmond, ANY kind of threat?

fadeevfan · Jan 19, 2014

chuckm said:
She beat Adelina LAST year, when Adelina was still adjusting to her maturing body. Adelina is a different skater this year. When she makes a mistake, she doesn't melt down. She made it to the GPF this year, something she failed to do last year. And she skated great at Euros--she lost to Lipnitskaia, but they both scored over 200. These two ladies are formidable: make no mistake.

I don't think anyone is arguing that. The only point is: Osmond, a mystery for much of the season, looked to be rounding into good form at Canadian nationals, and at the least, lifts Canada's chances in the team even (as opposed to a month ago, when people were speculating that Lacoste would be the representative) and if she goes into the event feeling she has nothing to lose -- something none of the other leaders will likely be able to do -- she's a decent dark horse. I doubt she'll medal, or even finish top 5. But certainly within the realm of possibilities.

Actually, I'd say it as likely as the notion that all the favorites perform perfectly and the final order conforms completely to seasonal results so far. How often does that happen? Shizuka? Sarah? Tara? There will a surprise or two, that's what makes it exciting.

sky_fly20 · Jan 19, 2014

fadeevfan said:
I don't think anyone is arguing that. The only point is: Osmond, a mystery for much of the season, looked to be rounding into good form at Canadian nationals, and at the least, lifts Canada's chances in the team even (as opposed to a month ago, when people were speculating that Lacoste would be the representative) and if she goes into the event feeling she has nothing to lose -- something none of the other leaders will likely be able to do -- she's a decent dark horse. I doubt she'll medal, or even finish top 5. But certainly within the realm of possibilities.

Actually, I'd say it as likely as the notion that all the favorites perform perfectly and the final order conforms completely to seasonal results so far. How often does that happen? Shizuka? Sarah? Tara? There will a surprise or two, that's what makes it exciting.

No, but someone compared Osmond's hyper inflated Nationals 70 SP to Sotnikova SP at Europeans
that was a big :rofl:

You cannot compare Nationals to Internationals to make a valid argument

wallylutz · Jan 19, 2014

sky_fly20 said:
No, but someone compared Osmond's hyper inflated Nationals 70 SP to Sotnikova SP at Europeans
that was a big

You cannot compare Nationals to Internationals to make a valid argument

I guess my earlier post was unclear. If you actually paid attention as opposed to being raging, I didn't copy & paste any score. I evaluated those two skates SBS as though they were in the same competition, using the levels assessed by the technical panel and came to the conclusion they are fairly even at this point. It's my assessment hence I labelled it my $0.02. I wanted to see how competitive Osmond would be as if she were to skate at the Europeans. There is of course many caveats to such comparison though I feel this gives me a good idea where she stands and I like what I saw.

Sorry to disappoint you and Chuck - I didn't want to correct either of you because you didn't bother to check the marks and goe were actually different to the protocols but you are free to dismiss my assessment as being biased as well, as I am sure you will. I have no reason to be biased however here since the goal is to see whether Osmond can be competitive or not by being as objective as possible and fortunately, she is.

wallylutz · Jan 19, 2014

sky_fly20 said:
Fact: Osmond cannot skate clean outside of home ice, relies only in Canadian soil to score an inflated mark
she has a meltdown skating outside Canada, WTT, 4CC etc. so I doubt here who is the bigger headcase

Fact: Osmond beat Sotnikova in Germany. Fact: You can keep telling yourself that, whatever makes you sleep at night.

wallylutz · Jan 19, 2014

chuckm said:
She beat Adelina LAST year, when Adelina was still adjusting to her maturing body. Adelina is a different skater this year. When she makes a mistake, she doesn't melt down. She made it to the GPF this year, something she failed to do last year. And she skated great at Euros--she lost to Lipnitskaia, but they both scored over 200. These two ladies are formidable: make no mistake.

Indeed, except they have all improved. In terms of SP, Osmond's SP is very innovative and her performance could easily set her apart from the other girls doing the same jumps.

fadeevfan · Jan 19, 2014

wallylutz said:
Indeed, except they have all improved. In terms of SP, Osmond's SP is very innovative and her performance could easily set her apart from the other girls doing the same jumps.

This. That short is more sophisticated than anything anyone else is trying to do (including Yuna). It's authentic Fosse (and I don't even like Fosse!). She's a real performer.

Alex D · Jan 19, 2014

wallylutz said:
Fact: Osmond beat Sotnikova in Germany. Fact: You can keep telling yourself that, whatever makes you sleep at night.

It was by just two points

But yes Kaety was fantastic at Oberstdorf that season. Wish she would come over again, same with Adelina!

wallylutz · Jan 19, 2014

Alex D said:
It was by just two points

But yes Kaety was fantastic at Oberstdorf that season. Wish she would come over again, same with Adelina!

I am sure she would love to when she is healthy again because she has lots of fans in Europe too.

sky_fly20 · Jan 19, 2014

wallylutz said:
Fact: Osmond beat Sotnikova in Germany. Fact: You can keep telling yourself that, whatever makes you sleep at night.

and if you think Osmond can clear a 70 in SP then you are in for an real awakening
not everything can go like home inflated scoring

why bother arguing though, the same person who thinks V/M are being sabotaged and in favored by D/W :disapp:

chuckm · Jan 19, 2014

wallylutz said:
Indeed, except they have all improved. In terms of SP, Osmond's SP is very innovative and her performance could easily set her apart from the other girls doing the same jumps.

I saw the video of Osmond's SP. The landing of the second 3t in the combo looked < to me; the commentator gasped. Home judges gave her 8s in PCS, hence the 70; ISU judges won't give her PCS that high.
I also saw the FS. The 2a+3t looked like 2a+3t<-to and she also had a turnout on the 3s. There is no 3/3, only 6 triples attempted (with the 2a+3t). Her program scored 135 points at home only because the home judges gave her huge 8.5 range PCS scores.

Kaetlyn is an appealing skater, but she's been absent since early October. It's unreasonable to expect judges to jack her PCS scores up from the mid-7s she received at 2013 Worlds to the same level as ISU Champion-level skaters of the current season.

pangtongfan · Jan 19, 2014

sky_fly20 said:
and if you think Osmond can clear a 70 in SP then you are in for an real awakening
not everything can go like home inflated scoring

why bother arguing though, the same person who thinks V/M are being sabotaged and in favored by D/W :disapp:

Also the same person who thinks Chan has had no controversial wins, thought Osmond could beat a clean Yu Na and deserved higher PCS than Kim going into World last year, and believed Sandhu would outscore Chan on every category of PCS except skating skills before his return.

chuckm · Jan 19, 2014

fadeevfan said:
That short is more sophisticated than anything anyone else is trying to do (including Yuna). It's authentic Fosse (and I don't even like Fosse!). She's a real performer.

The only problem is it looks a lot like her SP from last season. And all four of her programs so far are playing coquettish/siren characters (latin, Carmen, fosse, Cleo). I hope next season she breaks out and shows some versatility.

sky_fly20 · Jan 19, 2014

pangtongfan said:
Also the same person who thinks Chan has had no controversial wins, thought Osmond could beat a clean Yu Na and deserved higher PCS than Kim going into World last year, and believed Sandhu would outscore Chan on every category of PCS except skating skills before his return.

add also the Canadian Pairs will become the Shizuka Arakawa winners at the Olympics :biggrin:

pangtongfan · Jan 19, 2014

sky_fly20 said:
add also the Canadian Pairs will become the Shizuka Arakawa winners at the Olympics

Did he actually say that. LOL I guess reality never enters into things for this individual. I mean I can see someone suggesting that for Julia. I disagree but can understand one having that feeling. The Canadian pairs this year though, hahaha. If one of them wins the bronze right now (even though D&R were 3rd at Worlds they clearly aren positioned there right now) that would be their equivalent of a Shizuka moment.

sky_fly20 · Jan 19, 2014

pangtongfan said:
Did he actually say that. LOL I guess reality never enters into things for this individual. I mean I can see someone suggesting that for Julia. I disagree but can understand one having that feeling. The Canadian pairs this year though, hahaha. If one of them wins the bronze right now (even though D&R were 3rd at Worlds they clearly aren positioned there right now) that would be their equivalent of a Shizuka moment.

go to the Euros Pairs thread

wallylutz · Jan 19, 2014

chuckm said:
I saw the video of Osmond's SP. The landing of the second 3t in the combo looked < to me; the commentator gasped. Home judges gave her 8s in PCS, hence the 70; ISU judges won't give her PCS that high.
I also saw the FS. The 2a+3t looked like 2a+3t<-to and she also had a turnout on the 3s. There is no 3/3, only 6 triples attempted (with the 2a+3t). Her program scored 135 points at home only because the home judges gave her huge 8.5 range PCS scores.

Kaetlyn is an appealing skater, but she's been absent since early October. It's unreasonable to expect judges to jack her PCS scores up from the mid-7s she received at 2013 Worlds to the same level as ISU Champion-level skaters of the current season.

I watched Gracie's LP yesterday again on NBC and her 3Lz+3T looked 3Lz+3T< to me. Yet, it was marked with a sea of +2 and +3. Where does this end?

In my view, you are suffering from a classic symptom of anchoring. In your mind, once something is anchored, it all has to start there. Well, I got news for you. The only high PCS Graice has got this season is from her Nationals. Internationally, she has been dismal because she skated poorly. It doesn't mean at the Olympics, her PCS can't suddenly be quite a bit higher provided she skates like a champion. See, the notion that a skater has to pay his/her dues by waiting their turn - not sure I buy that. It applies to Gracie, just as it can apply to Osmond and other skaters with potential.

wallylutz · Jan 19, 2014

sky_fly20 said:
and if you think Osmond can clear a 70 in SP then you are in for an real awakening
not everything can go like home inflated scoring

why bother arguing though, the same person who thinks V/M are being sabotaged and in favored by D/W :disapp:

lol, V/M being sabotaged? Care to link me to where someone claimed V/M has been sabotaged? Was it their skates? their music? or their dress? I always take your rants as quite funny because they are so outrageous even at times insulting to the skaters but lately, I worry about what you write though... You are of course welcome to hang out with that individual who is known to tell Nagasu to go back to Japan due to her race even though she is American but I am not sure many people want to be associated with that kind of person.

chuckm · Jan 19, 2014

I saw Gracie's 3z+3t LIVE up close and personal, and it was HUGE and fully rotated.

Here's the PCS Gracie got at SC for her FS where she won bronze: 7.86 7.64 7.57 7.89 7.86
And at NHK, where she was 4th: 7.75 7.18 7.68 7.64 7.50

Third and fourth dismal? I don't think so. Dropping out of the FS after falling on the 2a isn't exactly shining either.

She's been getting higher PCS scores this year than last because overall she's been performing better.
Her Nationals performances were WAY better than what she has done earlier in the season, so if she can continue with her new confidence, her PCS should go up.
However, I do not expect she will approach Sotnikova level PCS at Sochi, or even at Worlds.

pangtongfan · Jan 19, 2014

and who wants to be assoicated with you. I am probably one of only say seven posters here who dont have you on my ignore list and that is only because you are like a free daily episode of "Whats For Laughs" :laugh:

pangtongfan · Jan 19, 2014

chuckm said:
I saw Gracie's 3z+3t LIVE up close and personal, and it was HUGE and fully rotated.

Here's the PCS Gracie got at SC for her FS where she won bronze: 7.86 7.64 7.57 7.89 7.86
And at NHK, where she was 4th: 7.75 7.18 7.68 7.64 7.50

She's been getting higher PCS scores this year than last because overall she's been performing better.
Her Nationals performances were WAY better than what she has done earlier in the season, so if she can continue with her new confidence, her PCS should go up.
However, I do not expect she will approach Sotnikova level PCS at Sochi, or even at Worlds.

I think at Worlds Gold's PCS will be more competitive with the Russians than they will be at Sochi. The Russian fed. will be pushing hard for the Russian girls to get atleast 1 medal, and maybe 2 if Mao doesnt skate up to snuff, and Suzuki doesnt duplicate her Japanese National phenomal skate.

Kaetlyn Osmond, ANY kind of threat?

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