Will Mirai Appeal Decision for Olympic Team?

b-man · Jan 15, 2014

chuckm said:
The problem with this line of reasoning is that the way the GP operates, the only selection over which a host federation has complete control is the HOST PICKS. The top 3 seeds are allowed to name their choices, in order, and these are usually honored, so the hosts don't select those. After the top seeds,a separate draw is held for each category: seeds 4-6, Worlds 7-9, Worlds 10-12, top 24 WR, top 24 SB, etc. In each category, the host that gets first draw has the widest choice; the host that gets draw 6 gets what's left over. If a host always gets first draw, sure, they could cherry pick the best lineup for their skaters, but that is unlikely to happen.

Mirai usually gets invited by NHK, which makes sense, but it isn't always to her advantage since the Japanese ladies are a tough bunch, and the JSF usually uses the host pick for their seeds. USFS has no control whatsoever over invitations to Mirai or Ashley from other hosts.

You may be more knowledgable about the GP selection process than I, but the fact remains in 2012 SA was probably the weakest of the GP's, enabling Wagner to score an easy win. The field was so weak Gao was able to piggyback on the weak field and score a silver. You may say its luck or coincidence, I think the US Fed played a part in paving the way for Wagner to go to the GPF. Some Feds appear to want weak fields to help their skaters score points, other Feds may want stronger fields to sell tickets and not lose money as a host. In 2013, SA was still one of the weaker GP's, with Wagner getting a silver. Its much easier to have a "better body of work" when you Fed gets comparative cupcake GP's for you. TEB was also a weaker field for Wagner. You notice Gold, despite skating pretty well, didn't make the GP final. She had the difficult NHK, like Mirai. Gold also had a tougher field than Wagner at SC while Mirai had a difficult field in Russia. Mirai has a GP medal each of the last four years, more than Flatt, Czisny, Gao, Zawadzki, hicks, Cesario, Gold, Edmunds, etc; only Wagner has more.

Actually, Mirai has been exiled to Coc four times, an assignment which seems less popular. She has been to NHK three times, but the 2012 appearce was as a sub, when the US Fed only gave her one GP despite having a SB in the top 15. The NHK rescued her with a last minute assignment, after her own Fed left her hanging.

ks777 · Jan 15, 2014

pangtongfan said:
Well I see what you are saying but while I support Wagner making the team I almost sense her medal contending days are over, atleast for this year. Kim, Asada, Kostner, Sotnikova, Lipnitskaia, Gold, Suzuki, all seem above her right now, especialy as most of those seem to just be getting better as the season goes, while she is gradually getting worse (which is kind of her norm to be honest). Even last year when Kim, Asada, Kostner, and Suzuki will probably will all be retired it wont be easy with Sotnikova, Lipnitskaia, and Gold who all seem to be passing her by, and who I think most agree are all more naturally talented skaters, but also skaters like Osmond, Li, Tuktamysheva, Edmunds, and others who have huge potential if they can stay healthy, get the right coaching, and have the work ethic and determination to become champions that someone like Nagasu lacks.

I agree but I hope Ashley, Gracie and Polina do well at the Olympics. It's kinda impossible for Ashley to feel less pressure now. She is going to be bombarded by the media at the Olympics.. Just like Midori Ito.. Ashley needs to get rid of her cell phone and computer until the Olympics is over.

bekalc · Jan 15, 2014

Mathman said:
The reason that this turn of events saddens me is this. I believe that these teams (Ladwig and Evora and Hinzman and Parchem) should have gone to the Olympics. They earned it.

To change "they earned it" to "what gives the U.S. the best chance to get more medals" -- no, I do not agree that this is great for the future of figure skating in the U.S. The USFSA has a hundred thousand or so members, to most of whom the Olympics and world championships are utterly irrelevant. it is far, far better to run a clean, straight-up program than to sneak around obsessed by trying to get one-upsmanship on other countries.

Mathman, my only issue with that is I don't think it was very clean. It seemed to me that the Judges did their very best to ensure that the "right team won". Now at the very least, they can feel more comfortable calling Nationals the way they see it. Besides I think it will be rare occasions when they do it.

Mathman · Jan 15, 2014

jimini said:
Semi-related, does anyone have the criteria from pre-2006? I haven't been able to find anything but I figured it might be interesting to compare.

I am relying on memory here, but I am pretty sure that previous descriptions of the selection process included a statement, way down at the bottom in the fine print, to the effect that, "the International committee reserves the right to make any decision that it feels is in the best interest of U.S. Figure Skating." Thus their behinds were covered no matter what they did.

cheerio2 · Jan 15, 2014

pangtongfan said:
Those examples just prove all the more why what the USFSA is GREAT for the sport and for the future of U.S skating. Those people in the examples you listed should not have gone to the big event

Your personal opinion that they shouldn't have gone is not a valid reason. Either body of work should dictate, or Nationals results should dictate. The reality is, there is no way to explain a rational and consistent basis for the USFSA's actions, although some have contorted themselves into pretzels trying. The capricious decisionmaking of USFSA is most definitely bad for athletes and the sport.

Hikaru · Jan 15, 2014

Layfan said:
Something just struck me and I'll throw it out there:

Mirai was denied a spot in the Olympic and world teams because her record over the past two seasons hasn't been good, especially compared to Ashley's. But in denying her a spot for the world team, they are also hurting Mirai's chances of building up a good record for next season. It's Ashley who gets to go to world and then come to nationals again and say "See, I medaled at worlds, or came in 4th, or whatever." Mirai doesn't even get that chance.

Does this seem like a dismal precedence to anyone else? This year, it's Mirai. Next year, maybe Christina Gao or Agnes or whoever might get on the podium instead of Gracie or Polina. And the committee can decide they don't like it so they'll just send who they want to worlds. And then Christina or Agnes get thwarted in their efforts to keep gaining momentum.

I haven't been much of a fan of Mirai's skating the last couple of years, while I have really enjoyed Ashley. I'll admit that makes it a little easier to swallow this move, but the more I think about it then more I think "the rules" stink.

In complete agreement with this post. Where will the USFSA draw the line when it comes to Mirai? If next year she were to place second at Nationals, would they deny her a spot in a world team because she hasn't been to Worlds in 4 years?? Does she have to become again a National champion so they allow her to go to Worlds?

Mathman · Jan 15, 2014

bekalc said:
Mathman, my only issue with that is I don't think it was very clean. It seemed to me that the Judges did their very best to ensure that the "right team won". Now at the very least, they can feel more comfortable calling Nationals the way they see it...

That would be a desirable trade off. I, for one, thought that Ashley was held up at 2013 Nationals. This time she wasn't. So, this is better.

R.D. · Jan 15, 2014

You know, I've argued for years that USFS needs to consider more than just the Nationals results when naming the team in order to maximize USA's chances of a medal (or high placements) at Olympics/Worlds.

I think sending Wagner over Nagasu does just that.

HOWEVER - they need one or both of these things if they're going to do this:

1) to have clear, objective selection criteria, e.g. weighted importance of competitions
2) to be as clear/transparent about any decisions made using this system to the press.

To me, USFS failed BIG TIME on #2 and that's a huge reason why this has gotten out of hand. (They also need much more work to get to #1.)

If you give vague explanations such as "body of work", what's that supposed to mean? That could be interpreted so many ways. Already you've got folks saying NBC paid to have her on the team, her sponsors paid for it, etc. The most extreme of cases even suggests racism on part of USFS. And it doesn't make them look good.

ks777 · Jan 15, 2014

Mathman said:
That would be a desirable trade off. I, for one, thought that Ashley was held up at 2013 Nationals. This time she wasn't. So, this is better.

Actually everyone thought Ashley was held up at 2013 nationals, Everyone.

Mrs. P · Jan 15, 2014

R.D. said:
You know, I've argued for years that USFS needs to consider more than just the Nationals results when naming the team in order to maximize USA's chances of a medal (or high placements) at Olympics/Worlds.

I think sending Wagner over Nagasu does just that.

HOWEVER - they need one or both of these things if they're going to do this:

1) to have clear, objective selection criteria, e.g. weighted importance of competitions
2) to be as clear/transparent about any decisions made using this system to the press.

To me, USFS failed BIG TIME on #2 and that's a huge reason why this has gotten out of hand. (They also need much more work to get to #1.)

Thanks RD for your articulate explanation on why I'm not fully on board with this decision. While the document outlines that other events are taken into consideration, it doesn't explain how those events are weighed. I've heard different opinions on how they do so, but clear answer.

While I don't see all this as some sort of corrupt move, I do think USFS was definitely some what incompantant and naive in embarking on this new precedent.

bekalc · Jan 15, 2014

Mathman said:
That would be a desirable trade off. I, for one, thought that Ashley was held up at 2013 Nationals. This time she wasn't. So, this is better.

I mean you keep on talking about fairness, but I don't think its fair for things to be defined on one night. Lots can happen in one night you can get sick, have boot problems. Now yes, the Olympics will be determined on that-that's one competition. But in terms of picking a team-no.

In terms of who is most likely to do well at the Olympics, I will point out that Jeremy was great at Nationals, and Evan a bit shaky, but Jeremy's the one who bombed. the Olympics. In fact in general the National champ, is the one who doesn't win. Do you want to peak at Nationals-or the Olympics.

I'm fine with other criteria, as long as its very clear. I think Wagner has been very clearly better than Nagasu in the past two years. And comparing body of work, is actually quite fair between the two of them considering they've both been around the same time.

Its not fair to Polina so much.

I agree clear criteria, but I don't think its as stupid as the actual Plush going vs Kovtun.

I disagree with the Daisuke selection because I think both he and Kozuka had only one good skate. I'd have them do a skate off (with Oda)

FlattFan · Jan 15, 2014

Mathman said:
That would be a desirable trade off. I, for one, thought that Ashley was held up at 2013 Nationals. This time she wasn't. So, this is better.

She still was. How was that performance only 1 point less than Samantha's?

b-man · Jan 15, 2014

Layfan said:
Something just struck me and I'll throw it out there:

Mirai was denied a spot in the Olympic and world teams because her record over the past two seasons hasn't been good, especially compared to Ashley's. But in denying her a spot for the world team, they are also hurting Mirai's chances of building up a good record for next season. It's Ashley who gets to go to world and then come to nationals again and say "See, I medaled at worlds, or came in 4th, or whatever." Mirai doesn't even get that chance.

Does this seem like a dismal precedence to anyone else? This year, it's Mirai. Next year, maybe Christina Gao or Agnes or whoever might get on the podium instead of Gracie or Polina. And the committee can decide they don't like it so they'll just send who they want to worlds. And then Christina or Agnes get thwarted in their efforts to keep gaining momentum.

I haven't been much of a fan of Mirai's skating the last couple of years, while I have really enjoyed Ashley. I'll admit that makes it a little easier to swallow this move, but the more I think about it then more I think "the rules" stink.

Your logic makes sense to me, Layfan. There are always ramifications to new rules which may not be forseen initially, but which may become painfully evident down the road. The three selectees get the gold ring, Sochi and Worlds, this year, which gives them a possible advantage over the rest of the field for next year.

Mathman · Jan 15, 2014

b-man said:
Your logic makes sense to me, Layfan. There are always ramifications to new rules which may not be forseen initially, but which may become painfully evident down the road. The three selectees get the gold ring, Sochi and Worlds, this year, which gives them a possible advantage over the rest of the field for next year.

That has always been one of the arguments against including such things as Grand Prix events in the selection criteria. Only certain pre-selected skaters get to participate in the Grand Prix in the first place. Nationals is the only competition where it's come one, come all, with (in principle) no pre-selected favorites.

bekalc · Jan 15, 2014

Mathman said:
That has always been one of the arguments against including such things as Grand Prix events in the selection criteria. Only certain pre-selected skaters get to participate in the Grand Prix in the first place. Nationals is the only competition where it's come one, come all, with (in principle) no pre-selected favorites.

Of course, which is why the body of work argument isn't fair to Polina. But guess what works perfectly for Mirai vs Ashley.

Layfan · Jan 15, 2014

Hikaru said:
In complete agreement with this post. Where will the USFSA draw the line when it comes to Mirai? If next year she were to place second at Nationals, would they deny her a spot in a world team because she hasn't been to Worlds in 4 years?? Does she have to become again a National champion so they allow her to go to Worlds?

That would be an interesting pickle. Let's say Ashley does well at worlds/Olympics. Let's say she even medals. And then let's say she again comes in a distant fourth behind Mirai at nationals 2015. Then, will they say, Ashley gets to worlds because she did well at worlds while Mirai didn't even make worlds? hmmm.

b-man · Jan 15, 2014

R.D. said:
You know, I've argued for years that USFS needs to consider more than just the Nationals results when naming the team in order to maximize USA's chances of a medal (or high placements) at Olympics/Worlds.

If you give vague explanations such as "body of work", what's that supposed to mean? That could be interpreted so many ways. Already you've got folks saying NBC paid to have her on the team, her sponsors paid for it, etc. The most extreme of cases even suggests racism on part of USFS. And it doesn't make them look good.

I also think it would be better to have more than Nationals results count, but it would be difficult if not impossible to come up with a system that will satisfy all interests. You had 21 entrants at Nationals. Some had Junior experience. Some competed at sectionals, regionals only. Some had senior B's but no GP's. Some had one GP, some Had two, and Ashley alone had the GP final. Which of those levels of competition do you include, and how do you weigh them? If you give weight to senior GP's only, the people with less experience will be out of the running at Nationals before it starts, which will diminish Nationals as an event. Is it an acceptable tradeoff to eliminate a big part of the field before the event starts? You could say that a win at a GP is worth twice a senior B, or 3 times a sectional, but that would just lead to more arguments without end. Is everyone comfortable with USFS just making decisions behind closed doors with no accountability. I know I am not.

RE: sponsors. I think P&G is both a sponsor of Nationals (Puffs), and a corporate sponsor of Wagner and Gold through some cosmetic brands. If Wagner didn't make the Olympic team, after P&G spent money promoting her, would that threaten P&G's sponsorship of Nationals? Does that possible threat influence USFSA's decisions regarding selecting Wagner and bumping Nagasu? USFSA certainly does not want to alienate its sponsors, which are hard to come by in these economic times. I think NBC has used Ashley a lot in their promotions. Can the US Fed afford to alienate NBC by keeping her off the Olympic team, when it is so hard to get TV coverage? Ideally, the US Fed should not allow companies to sponsor both the Fed and individual athletes, as its a clear conflict of interest.

itoja · Jan 15, 2014

So sorry for Mirai.
But I just love how this sad affair shows the hypocrisy of some people here.

Takahashi versus Kozuka:

CanadianSkaterGuy said:
Absolutely not a fair decision. It wasn't even close at Nationals (and should have been way more than a 12 point differential). I mean, Takahashi made 3 errors and fell in his SP and 4 errors and fell in his LP, and that qualifies him for the Olympic team?

Wagner versus Nagasu:

CanadianSkaterGuy said:
Anyone comparing the two would say sending Ashley is a no-brainer. Sending Mirai would only be a matter of "fairness" if the rules were that the US top 3 go, no questions asked.

So "absolutely not a fair decision" becomes "a matter of "fairness"" :eek:

hwell:

R.D. · Jan 16, 2014

b-man said:
Ideally, the US Fed should not allow companies to sponsor both the Fed and individual athletes, as its a clear conflict of interest.

Hmm, never thought about it from that angle...

ks777 · Jan 16, 2014

itoja said:
so sorry for mirai.
But i just love how this sad affair shows the hypocrisy of some people here.

Takahashi versus kozuka:

Wagner versus nagasu:

So "absolutely not a fair decision" becomes "a matter of "fairness"" hwell:

lol

Will Mirai Appeal Decision for Olympic Team?

b-man

ks777

bekalc

Mathman

cheerio2

Hikaru

Mathman

R.D.

ks777

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!

bekalc

FlattFan

Match Penalty

b-man

Mathman

bekalc

Layfan

b-man

itoja

R.D.

ks777

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