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Thread: Will Mirai Appeal Decision for Olympic Team?

  1. #661
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    But here's the problem with Nagasu's skate (which, BTW, I have not seen yet, nor do I know what she attempted - however, it does seem sub-par for her) - it's not that easy to point the finger and say, "see, USFS was right". More complicated than that - she just had her dreams dashed 2 weeks ago and had to recover quickly to skate here. Did that play a factor? It's possible it didn't matter in the big scheme of things, but there is no way to confirm. Also, the Olympics haven't happened yet - let's see how Wagner and Edmunds do there.

    Unfortunately, in any case this is what Nagasu's career has been all along - up and down. Not quite Czisny fashion, but a bumpy enough ride that the USFS declined to get on board.

  2. #662
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    Quote Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy View Post
    Ashley has not scored lower than Mirai's 4CC (or her Finlandia or her NHK) score since 2010.
    I would expect Wagner to do much better than that even with a fall or two. However, Wagner does have a 16th place finish at worlds (2008) following disastrous performances...this is a new experience for her, just like that was, so anything is possible.

    Mirai's poor showing at 4CCs could result from her traumatic experience at National's or one might conclude that her spectacular comeback at National's was a fluke. Since this is the season's end for her, we have no way of knowing.
    Basically it in a nutshell. We'll NEVER KNOW. Plus, assuming she would have skated like this at the Olympics had she been sent - another BIG assumption. Too many variables in play here.

  3. #663
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    Mirai simply wasn't reliable enough to send to Sochi. Wagner earned her spot for the last couple years and it's time to get the young talent like Polina out there among the top skaters and see how she will do. Russia is getting these girls out sooner then we are and maybe the USFS is finally getting there heads out of there asses.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Eddie Lee View Post
    Mirai's poor showing at 4CCs could result from her traumatic experience at National's or one might conclude that her spectacular comeback at National's was a fluke. Since this is the season's end for her, we have no way of knowing. Will this mark the end of her skating career, or will there be another chapter?
    It ain`t over until it is over. Injuries, winning an olympic medal etc could mean Mirai is going to world`s still or even the olympics.

    I am not sure there is any real excuse for Mirai`s 4cc`s mess. Though I think she had a virus the week before but still it was a weak competition; she could have easily medalled.

  5. #665
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    Quote Originally Posted by R.D. View Post
    Basically it in a nutshell. We'll NEVER KNOW. Plus, assuming she would have skated like this at the Olympics had she been sent - another BIG assumption. Too many variables in play here.
    No, but that's when we look at several data points. Mirai had two ok competitions this year (2 x bronze) and three bad competitions. A 40% success rate. Ashley had three good events (G,S,B) and one bad event. A 75% success rate. You can make excuses for Mirai (i.e. she was sick at Nationals last year, she had a bad coaching situation early in the season, she was sick at 4CC, etc.) but at the end of the day she more often than not fails to deliver.

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    Quote Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy View Post
    No, but that's when we look at several data points. Mirai had two ok competitions this year (2 x bronze) and three bad competitions. A 40% success rate. Ashley had three good events (G,S,B) and one bad event. A 75% success rate. You can make excuses for Mirai (i.e. she was sick at Nationals last year, she had a bad coaching situation early in the season, she was sick at 4CC, etc.) but at the end of the day she more often than not fails to deliver.
    If we're going to do Nagasu vs Wagner we need to eliminate the 4CC data point for Nagasu since Wagner does not have a comparable event (Olympics has not happened yet).

    Might be better to evaluate them score-wise.

    2013-14 Season

    Nagasu score avg (3 intl comps, not including 4CC): 160.53
    Wagner score avg (3 intl comps): 191.93

    US Nationals
    Nagasu 190.74
    Wagner 182.74
    ____
    Wagner's score avg would have placed her 2nd (silver) at 4CC.
    Nagasu's score avg would have placed her 6th at both GPF and TEB.

    Wagner comes out 31 pts ahead when international comp scores are averaged
    Nagasu comes out 8 pts ahead when only US Nationals is taken into account

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    Quote Originally Posted by ForeverFish View Post
    "You deserve the spot, good luck. Love you."

    Unless you're suggesting that Ashley flat-out lied during her media conference, I think Mirai's text is about as straightforward as it gets.
    If Mirai still felt she deserved a spot, it is entirely possible that she thought Polina should have been bumped for Ashley based on her lack of senior experience. That would be my best guess as to why she sent Ashley a supportive message.

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    Mirai's FS started off slow and got slower. The opening 3f+2t was OK but then she did 2a+2t instead of going for the 3t, so you knew the energy wasn't there. After the first spins, every jump was UR, and you knew that because after she finished skating, the TES box dropped from the mid 50s to the upper 40s. Mura's father sat with her in the KnC and he just looked sad.

    It seems as if Mirai has to have a specific motivation to skate well at a given competition. She needed to skate well at CoR because she had skated so poorly at NHK, and she needed a good skate leading up to Nationals. She needed to skate well at Nationals of course, because she wanted to qualify for Sochi. But because she wasn't going to Sochi or Worlds, she wasn't particularly motivated to skate well at 4CC. That is sad, because without motivation, she can never have the competitive drive of a true champion.

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    Quote Originally Posted by chuckm View Post
    Mirai's FS started off slow and got slower. The opening 3f+2t was OK but then she did 2a+2t instead of going for the 3t, so you knew the energy wasn't there. After the first spins, every jump was UR, and you knew that because after she finished skating, the TES box dropped from the mid 50s to the upper 40s. Mura's father sat with her in the KnC and he just looked sad.

    It seems as if Mirai has to have a specific motivation to skate well at a given competition. She needed to skate well at CoR because she had skated so poorly at NHK, and she needed a good skate leading up to Nationals. She needed to skate well at Nationals of course, because she wanted to qualify for Sochi. But because she wasn't going to Sochi or Worlds, she wasn't particularly motivated to skate well at 4CC. That is sad, because without motivation, she can never have the competitive drive of a true champion.
    I agree with this analysis. She seems to lack that intrinsic motivation that is necessary to succeed at anything. Her motivations seem external and those things change constantly making it difficult to maintain. Unfortunately, some American schools have created this by always supplying extrinsic motivations to students. I had a student ask me once why she should do something if she wasn't going to get an award. I had another write a sonnet in English class about how she had to win awards because her parents used them to compare their three children. Not surprisingly, neither of these kids has had much success in adulthood in spite of shelves of awards throughout their young lives.

  10. #670
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    But then again, we don't really know what is going on in skaters' minds.

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    Quote Originally Posted by R.D. View Post
    But here's the problem with Nagasu's skate (which, BTW, I have not seen yet, nor do I know what she attempted - however, it does seem sub-par for her) - it's not that easy to point the finger and say, "see, USFS was right". More complicated than that - she just had her dreams dashed 2 weeks ago and had to recover quickly to skate here. Did that play a factor? It's possible it didn't matter in the big scheme of things, but there is no way to confirm. Also, the Olympics haven't happened yet - let's see how Wagner and Edmunds do there.

    Unfortunately, in any case this is what Nagasu's career has been all along - up and down. Not quite Czisny fashion, but a bumpy enough ride that the USFS declined to get on board.
    agreed.

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    Quote Originally Posted by louisa05 View Post
    I agree with this analysis. She seems to lack that intrinsic motivation that is necessary to succeed at anything. Her motivations seem external and those things change constantly making it difficult to maintain. Unfortunately, some American schools have created this by always supplying extrinsic motivations to students. I had a student ask me once why she should do something if she wasn't going to get an award. I had another write a sonnet in English class about how she had to win awards because her parents used them to compare their three children. Not surprisingly, neither of these kids has had much success in adulthood in spite of shelves of awards throughout their young lives.
    If I would be in the place of Mirai, I think that I would have also lost interest and motivation for this competition considering how the federation treat her like a piece of garbage for not giving her at least the world championships spot.
    I think that in her heart she wants to be an American person but in her head, she wish to skate for Japanese because they would give her more respect than in the USA for her skating and past success.
    Difficult dilemma for her :(

  13. #673
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    Quote Originally Posted by coolboogie22 View Post
    If I would be in the place of Mirai, I think that I would have also lost interest and motivation for this competition considering how the federation treat her like a piece of garbage for not giving her at least the world championships spot.
    I think that in her heart she wants to be an American person but in her head, she wish to skate for Japanese because they would give her more respect than in the USA for her skating and past success.
    Difficult dilemma for her :(
    "Garbage" and "respect" are such loaded words. The ONLY thing I got from of all this is that the USFS has exhausted all sympathy and patience they once had for her. No way does that imply they think she is garbage or that they have no respect for her. I'm sure the American officials were very nice and polite to her when they told her of their decisions just as I am sure the Japanese would also have been very nice and polite to her as they told her that they also didn't have room for her on their national team. If she goes to Japan and gives the same effort she did these last four years then expect the same results there as well.

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    It's sad, but Mirai's performance at 4CC validates USFS's reluctance to put her on the Sochi and World teams. Mirai has demonstrated again and again that she cannot be relied upon to deliver, and 2014 4CC is just another example.

    Mirai fans will blame USFS for Mirai's performance, but that can't be the case retroactively now, can it?

    I just hope Mirai takes stock of herself and vows to make a major change in her training and in her approach to her training AND her competitions. I'd love to see a renewed Mirai on the ice with a smile and the energy and spirit she used to have five years ago.

  15. #675
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    Quote Originally Posted by chuckm View Post
    It's sad, but Mirai's performance at 4CC validates USFS's reluctance to put her on the Sochi and World teams. Mirai has demonstrated again and again that she cannot be relied upon to deliver, and 2014 4CC is just another example.

    Mirai fans will blame USFS for Mirai's performance, but that can't be the case retroactively now, can it?
    But DOES it, really? Again, for reasons I mentioned above.

    Let me play DA for a moment. I'm not a fan of either skater, so I'm not picking sides here.

    I could also argue that Wagner's tendency to falter (i.e. "choke") under big-time pressure (2013, 2014 Nationals - even 2013 Worlds was not her best performance though she managed 5th...and she botched the 3-3 at 2012 Worlds SP) does not make success in Sochi very likely for her, as pressure will definitely be high there. In my eyes, her reliability takes a hit there.
    ______

    Having said that, Nagasu's case isn't very convincing either, as she has had mixed results and has also shown tendency to collapse under pressure (though there have been some extraordinary exceptions, such as 2010 and 2014 Nationals, 2010 Olympics). I will say this in Nagasu's credit - whenever the Olympics are involved, she's found a way to pull herself together. Unfortunately, in almost all other cases, she has been up/down at best.

    When you look at the scores based on the criteria laid out by USFS - one can see why Wagner was chosen. Even though she's been sub-par lately, she's still scoring higher than Nagasu on the international stage.

    Hopefully Nagasu makes a choice that works for her, whether she decides to continue or pursue something else. But if she does choose to stick around, she's gonna have to do something big - soon. As for Wagner, I hope for her sake she can validate herself in Sochi - or fans/media will be merciless and unforgiving. That's a pressure I don't wish on anyone.

    ______
    ETA: Consistent decision-making by USFS would have been sending Nagasu to Olys and Wagner to Worlds over Nagasu, given Nagasu's inconsistency (like they did sending Z/B to Sochi and D/C to worlds). But obviously they REALLY wanted Wagner in Sochi.

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