Can Gracie win the gold in Sochi?

HalfTriple · Jan 15, 2014

tana said:
Gracie competed against Julia in the same competitions twice, in 2012 Jr. Worlds and 2013 SC. On both occasions, she lost to Julia.
2012 Jr. Worlds: Julia (gold medalist; 63.09+123.96=187.05), Gracie (silver medalist; 58.00+113.85=171.85)
2013 Skate Canada: Julia (gold medalist; 66.89+131.34=198.23), Gracie (bronze medalist; 69.45+117.20=186.75)

Competitions-wise, Julia has shown better results than Gracie so far. I think Julia is more consistent and she has always medaled at every competition she participated. Gracie has missed the podium for 4 times (7th at 2012 SC, 6th at 2013 4CC, 6th at 2013 Worlds, 4th at 2013 NHK). Also, she is yet to win a gold medal at any senior international competitions.

Interesting. That shows how greatly talented Julia was and perhaps still is. Gracie is still a fledgling in many aspects, and a lot to work on. but I wouldn't envy Julia. Unfortunately Gracie at least became a full grown senior skater, but Julia hasn't yet. Despite Julia's accomplishment, the way I see it, Julia's skating is not qualitatively comparable to senior level, and shouldn't be equally measured even though the current judging system and judges are overlooking it. the borderline between junior and senior is drawn by age ideally, but in reality age does not necessarily guarantee senior maturity in skating. The very example is Liza and Julia. Julia is likely to suffer the way Liza did and is undergoing right now. Of course I hope both overcome in time... Speaking of Liza and Julia, I am not sure about Li's skating. She also looks in between in 2013 Worlds.

HalfTriple · Jan 15, 2014

pangtongfan said:
In comparision with Kwan, Cohen, Asada, Kostner, Sotnikova, even Gold, for instance. Kim's feet will not prevent her from winning the OGM in Sochi, but they are sloppy.

Oh I thought you are mentioning jumps. but if not, can you a little elaborate the "sloppiness"? You don't have to take me wrong. I am just being curious of your point.

RABID · Jan 15, 2014

pangtongfan said:
In comparision with Kwan, Cohen, Asada, Kostner, Sotnikova, even Gold, for instance. Kim's feet will not prevent her from winning the OGM in Sochi, but they are sloppy.

This always seemed like such a non issue to me. I keep hearing it all the time but for the life of me I can't see it. Perhaps it is because of my untrained eye, but at the same time the way everyone always harps on it you would think this flaw should jump out at me from the tv screen and it just doesn't. I think her footwork is lovely so I don't see it there. She always seems so elegant and beautiful on ice and nothing I see detracts from that. So this use of the word "ugly" just seems weird and loaded with prejudice. You say "sloppy", pangtongfan and I will give you the benefit of the doubt with that description but it must take a trained eye to see it because it sure isn't obvious to me. :eek:

hwell:

CarneAsada · Jan 15, 2014

os168 said:
Okay I will say YES!! So to use CarneAsada's AMAZING methodology, I will give her 17.58478914 % chance based just on the pleasant feet thing + 3lz3t corker thing she does + she is related to Kwan through Frank + that US NEED good ratings to SAVE the sport, that she is a BIG Yuna fan (even copied her Scheherazade dress) and that Mirai might as well be a VICTIM for something to save the integrity of s@&%$&&... blurp blourp bloppffwarfhghg something! Uh...something about feet?!

[only trying to stay on topic... only this is all very Osmond vs Kim de ja vous! We all know how that went! Apparently anyone can qualify these days just do well at their home event. Actually, I strongly feel I should create a thread name Li ZiJun Vs Kim. Afterall, she did beat BOTH Gold and Osmond in the FS (+ Wagner) at WC2013 and actually went practically cleanish (e on her lutz) and won the other PROPER standing ovation of the night without a home crowd in sight. Sadly she hasn't competed all season due to injuries and other illnesses, except she will be debut at 4cc this season. Let's see how she does! Wish me luck!]

No methodology of mine would ever give Gracie Gold such an unrealistic chance to win. She is 5% or less. Kim is still 70-80% for your information. As for poor adorable undermarked Li Zijun, I have a nasty feeling that she is not going to touch the podium even with two clean skates due to horrid underscoring. She is still Chinese. I don't think this is déjà vu at all. Osmond was hyped undeservingly when she had no difficulty and injuries. Gracie is being looked at with a heavy dose of skepticism despite being ten times the jumper Osmond will ever be.

Vicky458 · Jan 15, 2014

HalfTriple · Jan 15, 2014

RABID said:
This always seemed like such a non issue to me. I keep hearing it all the time but for the life of me I can't see it. Perhaps it is because of my untrained eye, but at the same time the way everyone always harps on it you would think this flaw should jump out at me from the tv screen and it just doesn't. I think her footwork is lovely so I don't see it there. She always seems so elegant and beautiful on ice and nothing I see detracts from that. So this use of the word "ugly" just seems weird and loaded with prejudice. You say "sloppy", pangtongfan and I will give you the benefit of the doubt with that description but it must take a trained eye to see it because it sure isn't obvious to me. hwell:

points to think about. thanks. But on the other hand, pangtongfan might have suggested that Kim's lack of stamina in recent outings could have related to such impression, in which case, I guess he means she looks sloppy compared to her past brilliance. Anyway Kim is not so awe-inspiringly sharp as before. Of course I by no means fault her for that.

RABID · Jan 15, 2014

HalfTriple said:
points to think about. thanks. But on the other hand, pangtongfan might have suggested that Kim's lack of stamina in recent outings could have related to such impression, in which case, I guess he means she looks sloppy compared to her past brilliance. Anyway Kim is not so awe-inspiringly sharp as before. Of course I by no means fault her for that.

I hear you but the thing is, the charge is nothing new. It's been going on for years, started I think with Dick Button's first mentioning of it.

HalfTriple · Jan 15, 2014

CarneAsada said:
No methodology of mine would ever give Gracie Gold such an unrealistic chance to win. She is 5% or less. Kim is still 70-80% for your information. As for poor adorable undermarked Li Zijun, I have a nasty feeling that she is not going to touch the podium even with two clean skates due to horrid underscoring. She is still Chinese. I don't think this is déjà vu at all. Osmond was hyped undeservingly when she had no difficulty and injuries. Gracie is being looked at with a heavy dose of skepticism despite being ten times the jumper Osmond will ever be.

Oh Dear you are too tough on Gracie. 5%? Well, I too never think Gracie will perform in Sochi good enough to make the podium, but I will allow myself prejudiced on Gracie with more than 20%. Oh belay that! Why not 50% .... well in my unmitigated hope, never mind.

HalfTriple · Jan 15, 2014

RABID said:
I hear you but the thing is, the charge is nothing new. It's been going on for years, started I think with Dick Button's first mentioning of it.

Oh, you are now mentioning Button. I guess then pointed toe or something? I see. Well, we tend to ask skaters too many and too much theseday, don't you think?

RABID · Jan 15, 2014

HalfTriple said:
Oh, you are now mentioning Button. I guess then pointed toe or something? I see. Well, we tend to ask skaters too many and too much theseday, don't you think?

The funny thing is on one hand he was blown away with her on ice charisma, footwork, and JUMPS, but on the other hand NITPICKY. But yeah, whatever he said, I think that is where it all began, (maybe)

RABID · Jan 15, 2014

HalfTriple said:
Oh, you are now mentioning Button. I guess then pointed toe or something? I see. Well, we tend to ask skaters too many and too much theseday, don't you think?

By the way HalfTriple here is the Zijun Lee video link you asked for a day ago. v.youku.com/v_show/id_XNjU2MDI2Mjk2.html
I just found it now on the Four Continents forum.

HalfTriple · Jan 15, 2014

RABID said:
By the way HalfTriple here is the Zijun Lee video link you asked for a day ago. v.youku.com/v_show/id_XNjU2MDI2Mjk2.html
I just found it now on the Four Continents forum.

Oh thanks. I will be back after watching it

HalfTriple · Jan 15, 2014

RABID said:
By the way HalfTriple here is the Zijun Lee video link you asked for a day ago. v.youku.com/v_show/id_XNjU2MDI2Mjk2.html
I just found it now on the Four Continents forum.

Impressive. Of course this is practice. you still can mess pretty bad after thousand successful runs in practice. As I see Li, her overall skating is ahead of Adelina and Julia, though the margin may be small. According to footage, Li's jump quality is also best among the top newbies, but what impresses me the most is her skating is on the verge of senior level. what a lovely skater. I always thought Czisny and Li are the blessing to figure skating. But still Li's free leg after landing is yet to be controlled better, and her triple triple looks in essence no difference from Julia. Of course how much Li will cash in in Sochi is different issue. the judging tend these day is pretty messy and unpredictable. But objectively speaking, Li is ahead of Adelina and Julia. It seems odd because I already mentioned that Adelina is already full grown senior; how can Li, almost senior yet still junior quality in her skating? In the degree of bodily freedom Li is superior to the two, which is in fact the most critical in judging skater. More over LI's bodyline and move makes an integrated compatibility as she skates. It's great to see her skating after injury and long hiatus. But we will have to see how judges assess Li against other youngsters as well as veterans in Sochi.

RABID · Jan 15, 2014

HalfTriple said:
Impressive. Of course this is practice. you still can mess pretty bad after thousand successful runs in practice. As I see Li, her overall skating is ahead of Adelina and Julia, though the margin may be small. According to footage, Li's jump quality is also best among the top newbies, but what impresses me the most is her skating is on the verge of senior level. what a lovely skater. I always thought Czisny and Li are the blessing to figure skating. But still Li's free leg after landing is yet to be controlled better, and her triple triple looks in essence no difference from Julia. Of course how much Li will cash in in Sochi is different issue. the judging tend these day is pretty messy and unpredictable. But objectively speaking, Li is ahead of Adelina and Julia. It seems odd because I already mentioned that Adelina is already full grown senior; how can Li, almost senior yet still junior quality in her skating? In the degree of bodily freedom Li is superior to the two, which is in fact the most critical in judging skater. More over LI's bodyline and move makes an integrated compatibility as she skates. It's great to see her skating after injury and long hiatus. But we will have to see how judges assess Li against other youngsters as well as veterans in Sochi.

Keep your fingers crossed. She's skating this weekend.

HalfTriple · Jan 15, 2014

RABID said:
Keep your fingers crossed. She's skating this weekend.

That's great. please keep me and others in this forum posted. the three great talents are quite as similar as dissimilar one another. Adelina's weakest point is balance; to be accurate, I am very reluctant to give her GOE in jump if she competes with veteran seniors, while her strength lies with edge, and her skating is the most satisfactory among the Russian skaters. Julia's strength is flexibility and jump consistency ( in junior level) in addition to her musicality, but again this also works within junior level. When it comes to her performance, I struggle with a judging dilemma in her PCS, because Julia's precociousness in musicality at best is mimetic, three time removed form the core substance. it seems to constitute only pretentiousness, but how fair it that? are the seniors too, all participating in act of pretentiousness called performance? Her body line is yet to mature, but her musical interpretation tries to emanate something it is not. Well, that' snot her fault is it? Li, though still juniorish in her jump, shows best quality of jump and good balance in senior level and equal flexibility as Julia. Yes, overall, Li is the most promising one if not successful in Sochi. Let us hope for the best for all of the three.

Nater · Jan 15, 2014

HalfTriple said:
Impressive. Of course this is practice. you still can mess pretty bad after thousand successful runs in practice. As I see Li, her overall skating is ahead of Adelina and Julia, though the margin may be small. According to footage, Li's jump quality is also best among the top newbies, but what impresses me the most is her skating is on the verge of senior level. what a lovely skater. I always thought Czisny and Li are the blessing to figure skating. But still Li's free leg after landing is yet to be controlled better, and her triple triple looks in essence no difference from Julia. Of course how much Li will cash in in Sochi is different issue. the judging tend these day is pretty messy and unpredictable. But objectively speaking, Li is ahead of Adelina and Julia. It seems odd because I already mentioned that Adelina is already full grown senior; how can Li, almost senior yet still junior quality in her skating? In the degree of bodily freedom Li is superior to the two, which is in fact the most critical in judging skater. More over LI's bodyline and move makes an integrated compatibility as she skates. It's great to see her skating after injury and long hiatus. But we will have to see how judges assess Li against other youngsters as well as veterans in Sochi.

There is a bunch of crosovers and three turns in that run-through (what we see)... After the 2A-3T, which isn't even on the same dimension as Adelina's, she does 2 3-Turns, and edge change, and 3 more 3-turns... Transitions? Well, at least she changed directions! Then before the Lutz, 3 Turns and Mohawks - that is about 10+ seconds of 3-Turns and Mohawks between 2 elements; maybe they are just filler for other transitions, but I doubt that is the case at this point in the season. People wonder why these skaters often get lower PCS marks than they think they deserve. This is why... The transitions she's doing are not difficult nor are they varied. That is an issue, and it keeps her PCS down...

For comparison, here are the steps into Adelina's first 3F in her FS:

LFI Mohawk - LFI Choctaw - RFI Counter - BI2BO Edge Pull - 3-Turn+3Flip
^ - That is not counting choreography which also counts towards the transition score, and the fact that she gets into the choreography back quickly after the jump.

The two aren't even remotely comparable.

The judges will likely give her high 6's to very low 7s for Transitions, for example... And her skating skills will likely suffer as well since using these simple transitions so much sort of forces you to give away potential points on SS bullets and it also limits what you can do choreographically. These things are important, and a lot of people who don't understand how PCS is scored wonder why skaters get "hosed" in PCS, but this is an example of an issue where a great skater can score low due to her program being laid out in a very un-tactful way (unless she has issues getting through a harder program, in which case I guess it's a good tactic to sacrifice PCS for a clean performance).

HalfTriple · Jan 15, 2014

Nater said:
There is a bunch of crosovers and three turns in that run-through (what we see)... After the 2A-3T, which isn't even on the same dimension as Adelina's, she does 2 3-Turns, and edge change, and 3 more 3-turns... Transitions? Well, at least she changed directions! Then before the Lutz, 3 Turns and Mohawks - that is about 10+ seconds of 3-Turns and Mohawks between 2 elements; maybe they are just filler for other transitions, but I doubt that is the case at this point in the season. People wonder why these skaters often get lower PCS marks than they think they deserve. This is why... The transitions she's doing are not difficult nor are they varied. That is an issue, and it keeps her PCS down...

For comparison, here are the steps into Adelina's first 3F in her FS:

LFI Mohawk - LFI Choctaw - RFI Counter - BI2BO Edge Pull - 3-Turn+3Flip
^ - That is not counting choreography which also counts towards the transition score, and the fact that she gets into the choreography back quickly after the jump.

The two aren't even remotely comparable.

The judges will likely give her high 6's to very low 7s for Transitions, for example... And her skating skills will likely suffer as well since using these simple transitions so much sort of forces you to give away potential points on SS bullets and it also limits what you can do choreographically. These things are important, and a lot of people who don't understand how PCS is scored wonder why skaters get "hosed" in PCS, but this is an example of an issue where a great skater can score low due to her program being laid out in a very un-tactful way (unless she has issues getting through a harder program, in which case I guess it's a good tactic to sacrifice PCS for a clean performance).

You took it too seriously. it's just a practice. I do not assume too much out of it, and moreover, as you will be glad to hear, it's just an opinion. You can dissent as much as you like. I have no agenda for Li or anyone. well if any, probably Czisney will be. Feel free to disagree with me. you are welcome to do that.

OS · Jan 15, 2014

CarneAsada said:
No methodology of mine would ever give Gracie Gold such an unrealistic chance to win. She is 5% or less. Kim is still 70-80% for your information. As for poor adorable undermarked Li Zijun, I have a nasty feeling that she is not going to touch the podium even with two clean skates due to horrid underscoring. She is still Chinese. I don't think this is déjà vu at all. Osmond was hyped undeservingly when she had no difficulty and injuries. Gracie is being looked at with a heavy dose of skepticism despite being ten times the jumper Osmond will ever be.

Well duh!! 5% might be the base value, but when you account for the GS GOEs (Growth On Exaggeration) + the PCS (Political Connection Subjection), it clearly comes more closer to my revised figure of 14%. I have actually reworked the figure again to take in account of US Nationals inflation and maximise Russia deflation due to the competition to take place in Sochi; that Gold has real Goldie locks in an Olympic event that is currently missing a Korpii; that she does have the Olympic KnC must see grumpy Frank by her side. It turns out, tragically, your method is not as mad as I had originally thought. My apologies for ever doubting over your silliness.

As for Zijun, my hopes and prayer is that: One, she can truly be fit and healthy by 4CCs and actually make it to Sochi in decent shape. Two, her growth spurts can translate to much needed power and speed if she genuinely wish to emulate her idol some day. Three, one can learn alot through setbacks, failings, growing life experience, so hopefully her recent troubles can help her with the maturity in her performance. She does have something bit of an upstart already over Gold though, she already had many pictures taken with her idol posted on her Weibo/Instagram already which I hear Gold hope to get at least one someday. Sochi is coming, looking forward to lots and lots more of happy pictures with hopefully lots and lots of happy skaters.

Nater · Jan 15, 2014

HalfTriple said:
You took it too seriously. it's just a practice. I do not assume too much out of it, and moreover, as you will be glad to hear, it's just an opinion. You can dissent as much as you like. I have no agenda for Li or anyone. well if any, probably Czisney will be. Feel free to disagree with me. you are welcome to do that.

Gladly, because I wouldn't want you to pawn that off as anything objective or proveable, when the opposite is clearly apparent.

Skaters run through their real programs in practice so the fact that "it's just a practice" has nothing to do with it.

And I don't take it that seriously. I know it sounds cute and it makes you feel better to pretend that I take this nearly as serious as a lot of the crazies here do, but I don't.

I don't even take my own training that seriously, nevermind what some skater from a far off country that I've never met.

I do enjoy discussing the technical aspects of figure skaters with other skaters and fans, but I've quickly discovered that this is the WRONG place to do it

HalfTriple · Jan 15, 2014

Nater said:
There is a bunch of crosovers and three turns in that run-through (what we see)... After the 2A-3T, which isn't even on the same dimension as Adelina's, she does 2 3-Turns, and edge change, and 3 more 3-turns... Transitions? Well, at least she changed directions! Then before the Lutz, 3 Turns and Mohawks - that is about 10+ seconds of 3-Turns and Mohawks between 2 elements; maybe they are just filler for other transitions, but I doubt that is the case at this point in the season. People wonder why these skaters often get lower PCS marks than they think they deserve. This is why... The transitions she's doing are not difficult nor are they varied. That is an issue, and it keeps her PCS down...

For comparison, here are the steps into Adelina's first 3F in her FS:

LFI Mohawk - LFI Choctaw - RFI Counter - BI2BO Edge Pull - 3-Turn+3Flip
^ - That is not counting choreography which also counts towards the transition score, and the fact that she gets into the choreography back quickly after the jump.

The two aren't even remotely comparable.

The judges will likely give her high 6's to very low 7s for Transitions, for example... And her skating skills will likely suffer as well since using these simple transitions so much sort of forces you to give away potential points on SS bullets and it also limits what you can do choreographically. These things are important, and a lot of people who don't understand how PCS is scored wonder why skaters get "hosed" in PCS, but this is an example of an issue where a great skater can score low due to her program being laid out in a very un-tactful way (unless she has issues getting through a harder program, in which case I guess it's a good tactic to sacrifice PCS for a clean performance).

Since you mentioned about technical part, I just let you know that I am less interested in competition result or how current system prefers certain elements over the others or how transitions will earn points. the transition I emphasizes as important is its continuity to the program, not graded elements that are required in competitions. So you can see what I focus on in judging skaters is different. I hope this helps.

Can Gracie win the gold in Sochi?

HalfTriple

Match Penalty

HalfTriple

Match Penalty

RABID

CarneAsada

Vicky458

HalfTriple

Match Penalty

RABID

HalfTriple

Match Penalty

HalfTriple

Match Penalty

RABID

RABID

HalfTriple

Match Penalty

HalfTriple

Match Penalty

RABID

HalfTriple

Match Penalty

Nater

Match Penalty

HalfTriple

Match Penalty

OS

Sedated by Modonium

Nater

Match Penalty

HalfTriple

Match Penalty

Similar threads

Connect with us