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At least Caro K & Mao got to stand on the podium...
Can Gracie win the gold in Sochi?
- Thread starter skateluvr
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At least Caro K & Mao got to stand on the podium...
She can win TES against Yuna which is a very hard job. Even Mao with two 3A didn't do that. She has 7 triple with very good GOE (like Kim) and very good spins too. That free program shouldn't get good PCS but we will see. She is the US number 1 and can get Wagner like PCS (65)
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- Nov 16, 2005
I don't think she can win gold at this time. There are just too many skaters in front of her. But there may be a chance to medal. But anything can happen at the Olympics.
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- Nov 10, 2009
I don't know how much being the US #1 means when she doesn't have a worlds or GPF medal to her name and the US is very shallow. It's not like she had to beat skaters of Mao's caliber to get her title.
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- May 19, 2011
Gracie would need to have Sarah Hughes-like luck to win gold in Sochi, meaning all of the top competitors would need to falter and she'd need to skate perfectly. Sarah had it easier though; she only had two people to get by. In order for Gracie to win she'd need to get by Yu-Na, Mao, Carolina and Julia...she'd have an easier time getting by Ashley and Akiko...Adelina too (unless she's clean, in which case add her name to that first list of people).
It could happen but the stars would need to align. I do think if she skates the way she skated at nationals that she has a great shot at top 5 and possibly a podium finish...but she'd need people to make mistakes. Gracie can get good TES but she's not going to get PCS to rival Kim, Asada or Kostner unless they make mistakes and she's perfect.
It could happen but the stars would need to align. I do think if she skates the way she skated at nationals that she has a great shot at top 5 and possibly a podium finish...but she'd need people to make mistakes. Gracie can get good TES but she's not going to get PCS to rival Kim, Asada or Kostner unless they make mistakes and she's perfect.
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- Feb 17, 2010
I don't think Gracie can win gold. However, I think she is the most capable of skating two clean programs than anyone besides Yuna. The problem is that a lot of skaters can beat Gracie if clean: Adelina and Julia (home country score inflation), Mao, Ashley (significant PCS edge from international judges), Carolina, and Akiko (who gets great PCS when clean). All of the skaters do 3 triple shorts (except Mao) and 7 triple longs (except Yuna) so Gracie won't have too big of an edge in BV.
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- Dec 29, 2011
Nadia01 said:
Oh, I'd wish. But as long as I felt Akiko just isn't getting her due, I don't know how much being Japanese champion, even if she bet Mao, is going to change that. Her world bronze and her GPF medals didn't... and Gracie, on the other hand, already gets inflated PCS from the judges anyway, IMO. If both skate clean (or equally well), Akiko should be way ahead of Gracie, but I'm afraid the judges wouldn't score it like that.
Anyway, I really don't see Gracie getting the OGM. A lot of the better skaters are inconsistent, true, but I just can't see her beating Yuna. Mao is a very hard to imagine case too - her back seems to be better again since nationals and she doesn't have to be clean to be ahead of a clean Gold. Lipnitskaya in russia will be scored higher too I think, and she's so consistent. I'd say Gracie is in the hunt for bronze, though not the favorite, but I wouldn't even consider her a dark horse for the OGM.
EDIT:
drivingmissdaisy said:
You think Gracie is more likely/capable of skating 2 clean programs than Julia? gracie never was completly clean in both programs, the closest was at nats now, but still she had her hands down. Julia skated several clean back to back programs in her career I think...
Plus, I don't think Julia needs home country inflatation to beat clean Gracie. Maybe Adelina too. On the other hand, I think Gracie might beat even a clean Akiko and Ashley (though I'd disagree with it, but oh well...).
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- Mar 17, 2013
And not just mistakes either, but flops and meltdowns. And let's not forget the actual state of affairs with the mental aspects of this competition; both YuNa and Mao, veterans of so many major competitions know that though they have to be excellent they don't have to be perfect. If they stumble they know things are still far from being lost. If someone like Gracie, Suzuki, Ashley, etc, stumbles they would be more prone to unraveling.
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- May 19, 2011
Seriously? Gracie performed very well at nationals this year, I won't take that from her. But that was one competition. Skating well once after basically being a headcase in every competition prior does not elevate you to Yu-Na consistency level. If that's the case then Adelina Sotnikova is most likely to skate cleanly in Sochi based off her two nationals performances which were right in line with Gracie's (clean SP, minor mistake in the FS).:sarcasm:
I applaud Gracie (and Adelina) for delivering under that pressure, but one clean competition does not magically grant you the label of consistency. Nearly all of the top competitors are capable of skating cleanly; they know how to do the jumps...but being capable of skating well and actually doing it is where the separation occurs. Skating well from competition to competition is what counts. Gracie hasn't proved she's capable of that...not yet.
It's hugely a matter of politics re GGold winning OGM. The performances will of course have a lot to do with it, but politics is rife in figure skating, has ever been and apparently ever shall be. Look at skating's wuzrobbed, broken-hearted strewn history.
As of now, I'm just over Yu Na, and Mao -- their time and their battle was sooo four years ago. Of course they are both still great skaters, but Yu Na is only in it at this point for her country, not for herself. Plus Yu Na's often awkward positions, particularly in spins can not compare aesthetically with the lovely grace of many skaters, including now budding artist, Gracie. Mao has top notch lyrical qualities, and I preferred Mao over Yu Na four years ago, but seriously Mao has always had jump technique issues. Brave of Mao to take the time to reconstruct her jump technique, but there is still something a bit wonky about it. Mostly the weaknesses of Queen Yu Na and street-cred Mao are fairly ignored by ISU judges. They both have great rep, and they will receive points based on their rep in the sport regardless. Gracie would indeed be skating to a fairy tale ending if she won gold at this Olympics. Can't forget about the Russian babies either with the Olympics taking place in Sochi. Yes indeed, the politics will be rife.
BTW, thanks original poster, re noting that reference to "Pretty Woman" in Gracie's sp costume. She looked stunning. Frank definitely knows how to refine skaters and create some "shock and awe," particularly when he has a lot to work with.
As of now, I'm just over Yu Na, and Mao -- their time and their battle was sooo four years ago. Of course they are both still great skaters, but Yu Na is only in it at this point for her country, not for herself. Plus Yu Na's often awkward positions, particularly in spins can not compare aesthetically with the lovely grace of many skaters, including now budding artist, Gracie. Mao has top notch lyrical qualities, and I preferred Mao over Yu Na four years ago, but seriously Mao has always had jump technique issues. Brave of Mao to take the time to reconstruct her jump technique, but there is still something a bit wonky about it. Mostly the weaknesses of Queen Yu Na and street-cred Mao are fairly ignored by ISU judges. They both have great rep, and they will receive points based on their rep in the sport regardless. Gracie would indeed be skating to a fairy tale ending if she won gold at this Olympics. Can't forget about the Russian babies either with the Olympics taking place in Sochi. Yes indeed, the politics will be rife.
BTW, thanks original poster, re noting that reference to "Pretty Woman" in Gracie's sp costume. She looked stunning. Frank definitely knows how to refine skaters and create some "shock and awe," particularly when he has a lot to work with.
There is going to be such huge pressure on the American skaters. I am thinking that the bronze is going to go to Julia or Mao. No one can touch Yuna's scores if they scored like the last Olympics.
I think the best hope for the American skaters is when Yuna and Mao retire. The American skaters should look at this as an Olympics for experience.
I think the best hope for the American skaters is when Yuna and Mao retire. The American skaters should look at this as an Olympics for experience.
Can she?
Yes, but it would seriously be Meissner Worlds 2006-level upset or bigger. In other words, she'll have to be absolutely perfect AND the 5-6 favorites ahead of her have to crumble. If even one of them doesn't, she can forget about it.
I will say I think she now has a better shot at a bronze medal than Wagner does at this point.
Yes, but it would seriously be Meissner Worlds 2006-level upset or bigger. In other words, she'll have to be absolutely perfect AND the 5-6 favorites ahead of her have to crumble. If even one of them doesn't, she can forget about it.
I will say I think she now has a better shot at a bronze medal than Wagner does at this point.
Eh, it's all subjective. Certainly Yu Na has grace but she does not have aesthetically appealing positions on spins and she has never tried to point her feet. While she is widely respected by everyone, there are many former skaters who fault Yu Na's skating on those aesthetic points that are lacking. Yu Na is obviously an amazing jump technician (her technique is much better than Mao's). I would also say that Yu Na has lovely lyrical qualities and a sense of musicality altho' she is not really a great master of musical interpretation. Lyricism and musical expressiveness is more Mao's strength, but neither Mao nor Yu Na, in my humble estimation possess the grace and magic of Michelle Kwan (despite Kwan not having a good free leg position most of the time on her layback spin). Kwan skated with such courage and such connection to the audience. Yu Na is much more reserved emotionally. Mao conveys more emotion than Yu Na, but not in the magical, all consuming way of Kween Kwan. These are my opinions. Glad you have your own. 
Gracie has seriously improved her movement qualities, slowed down to feel the music more and quieted her arms, under the wise guidance of Frank Carroll. Certainly Gracie has a lot of room for continued improvement as she discovers more of who she is and learns how to express that to the audience. Whereas, Yu Na and Mao at this point are not going to be making many more improvements to their weaknesses.
Gracie has seriously improved her movement qualities, slowed down to feel the music more and quieted her arms, under the wise guidance of Frank Carroll. Certainly Gracie has a lot of room for continued improvement as she discovers more of who she is and learns how to express that to the audience. Whereas, Yu Na and Mao at this point are not going to be making many more improvements to their weaknesses.
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- Feb 17, 2010
I understand your skepticism, and you may be right. However, when I watch Gracie she jumps so confidently and is usually very straight in the air that I'm hopeful she can peak in Sochi. Comparing her to Adelina, yes both had one mistake at their Nationals but Gracie's technique seems so much steadier that I think it's only a matter of time until that is going to pay off in more consistency than her peers.
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- Jan 25, 2013
I would say Sotnikova has a better chance than Gold. She'll get higher PCS, especially on Russian ice. And if we want to compare their consistencies, it's not like Gold is much better. However if both go clean, you would imagine that with fair judging Gold would have the slight edge given her higher GOE on jumps and greater difficulty.
Yeah, Gracie can win gold... but it is next to impossible and other skaters would have to have total meltdowns.
You could argue that Murakami can win gold if she skates like at Nationals and everyone else bombs.
Yeah, Gracie can win gold... but it is next to impossible and other skaters would have to have total meltdowns.
You could argue that Murakami can win gold if she skates like at Nationals and everyone else bombs.
Under no planet should a clean Akiko get beaten by a clean Gracie.
And no one will beat the top 3, if clean. They can only beat each other.
It boils down to this, if all clean, she's about 6th or 7th.
If law of average applies, she's probably worse in placement this year.
This combination must happen in order for her to get the gold.
1. She has to be perfect in both SP and LP, and with 3x3 in both programs.
2. Yuna makes 1 big mistake in the SP. At least a big step out or a fall. And 1 fall and 1 step out in the LP.
3. Mao makes 1 big mistake in the SP. 2 big mistakes in the LP.
4. Carolina makes 1 small mistake in the SP. 1 big mistake + 1 small mistake.
5. Akiko. 1 big mistake in the LP.
6. Julia. 1 big mistake + 1 small mistake in the LP.
7. Adelina. same as Julia
You can calculate her chance easily.
1. What's the chance she'd go clean? I'd say about 10%
2. Yuna making that many mistakes? 5%
3. Mao making that many mistakes? 80%
4. Caro making that many mistakes? 90%
5. Akiko making 1 big mistake? 70%
6. Julia? 20%
7. Adelina? 90%
If you multiply 1 to 7, her chance of a gold medal is .0454%. Not lottery level, but it's there.
And no one will beat the top 3, if clean. They can only beat each other.
It boils down to this, if all clean, she's about 6th or 7th.
If law of average applies, she's probably worse in placement this year.
This combination must happen in order for her to get the gold.
1. She has to be perfect in both SP and LP, and with 3x3 in both programs.
2. Yuna makes 1 big mistake in the SP. At least a big step out or a fall. And 1 fall and 1 step out in the LP.
3. Mao makes 1 big mistake in the SP. 2 big mistakes in the LP.
4. Carolina makes 1 small mistake in the SP. 1 big mistake + 1 small mistake.
5. Akiko. 1 big mistake in the LP.
6. Julia. 1 big mistake + 1 small mistake in the LP.
7. Adelina. same as Julia
You can calculate her chance easily.
1. What's the chance she'd go clean? I'd say about 10%
2. Yuna making that many mistakes? 5%
3. Mao making that many mistakes? 80%
4. Caro making that many mistakes? 90%
5. Akiko making 1 big mistake? 70%
6. Julia? 20%
7. Adelina? 90%
If you multiply 1 to 7, her chance of a gold medal is .0454%. Not lottery level, but it's there.
