I really can't predict but I'm hoping that Wagner kicks some butt and redeems herself here with good skates.
With US nationals controversy, if Wagner makes one or two mistakes, her pcs will drop down low and her tes wouldnt get any GOEs. Her combine score would be something between 140-180 and would be in top 10 not top 5
Her stock isn't falling too poorly... she got the highest PCS, although not much higher than Sotnikova. It's higher PCS, and overall score from Cup of Russia though. More importantly, it's two clean short programs in a row from her.
No I did not say a clean Kostner could challenge a clean Kim. I was one of those who heavily opposed the suggestion at the end of last season, even when Kostner's stock was alot higher than it is now. Even at the point I felt she was the silver medal favorite above Asada I was sure to also point out repeatedly Mao was the only and bigger threat to Kim by far, as Kostner doesnt do more difficulty than Kim and if you dont outdo her in base value you have no hope of beating her. You can check my past messages if you want. As usual you love to put words in my mouth.
As for stock falling she skated cleanly and was beaten by both Russians, one who did the same jumps as her. That is a couple months after skating cleanly and losing to one of them by 5 points. For someone who was touted as on par with Kim and ahead of Asada to end last year, that is stock falling very fast. Add to that her inconsistency, Olympics being in Russia which will heavily favor Julia and Adelina, and like I said, winning a medal of any color in sochi, even a bronze, would be a huge feat for her to pull off at this point. People need to get over even considering Kostner a potential gold winner, even considering Suzuki or Gold for that makes more sense at this point, and just hope she can somehow win the bronze.
Kim will probably lose to both Russians in Sochi. The way their PCS are going up, it will not surprise me if their PCS are within .5 of Kim's.
Kim has not failed to medal even once in her 8 year Senior career. Heck one of here more devout fans did research on her whole career and found out she hasnt not medalled in a competition (local, regional, juvenile, pre school, whatever) since she was in since she was 9. So yes I would agree it is an impossiability for her not to medal. Asada meanwhile isnt an impossability to not medal at all, but both her and Kim being off the podium at the same event is even more an impossability as Kim alone missing it already is. Wagner being outside the top 3 at Nationals was a big surprise, but she is no Yu Na Kim, and she has both fallen and failed to medal (aka excluding the pewter medal) several times since first debuting as a contender in 2008.
The favorite isn't suppose to always win. Otherwise Michelle Kwan would have two Olympic gold medals. If it was up to the power of wanting she would also have Olympic gold. The Americans are sure that Gracie is capable of this...where's the proof. She has crumpled under pressure before and with so many other matured skaters that are in the mix, she is bound to crumble again. She does well on home ice with all the gushing and fanfare but it's a different story in Sochi. Osmond has a good a chance as Gracie to medal. P