Is Patrick a lock for gold still?

CanadianSkaterGuy · Jan 19, 2014

Not a "lock" but a very strong possibility. He has indeed shown vulnerability in the past, e.g. losing Skate Canada to Fernandez and the GPF to Hanyu. But it really depends on the skates of the day. Hanyu has shown the most potential to upset him, however as mentioned, if Chan goes clean he will most likely win (unless Hanyu goes clean as well, including the 4S which he has completely missed in his past 3 competitions -- he can then surpass Patrick on base value). He is more of a "lock" than Yu Na considering that the Russians can't exactly push Kovtun/Plushenko above Chan the way they can push Lipnitskaia/Sotnikova to the top of the podium.

For ages, Hanyu was my pick, and that wavered in the beginning of this season, but he's coming on strong again. Patrick has also had a pretty decent season, including a perfect, world record skate at TEB. Hanyu has to depend on Chan to make errors (SP & LP) and then go clean himself, so given that, I would say Chan has the edge. With Hanyu probably sticking around till 2018, Chan is certainly under much more pressure though.

CanadianSkaterGuy · Jan 19, 2014

pangtongfan said:
LOL Chan will most likely lose this year (hasnt always been the case in the past) if he falls more than once (or even if he falls once if the other men skate to their potential) and he is about 20 times more likely to fall more than once than Yu Na who is a light years more consistent skater than Chan.

Perhaps in past seasons, but interestingly, Chan has fallen exactly zero times this season, whereas Yu Na has fallen.

Yu Na is certainly more consistent than Chan, but given the BS judging we've seen in Russia this year, I wouldn't put it beyond the Russian fed to place Lip/Sot higher than her unless she skates cleanly.

CanadianSkaterGuy · Jan 19, 2014

pangtongfan said:
The Russians can only get away with so much BS.

Given the COR results, I think in Sochi we will see just how much they can get away with.

volk · Jan 19, 2014

I'd say he's 70% chance to get gold.

chuckm · Jan 19, 2014

Julia may have weaknesses in her skating, but her strength is HOME ICE and that could be formidable....

Remember the coronations at CoR?

Poodlepal · Jan 20, 2014

Bluebonnet said:
Looks like that you have gone out of the loop for an important period of time. Hanyu has won GPF gold and won LP with a fall against non-fall Patrick Chan.

Really? I had to work that day, and since Universal Sports is gone, you miss these competitions, they're gone for good, unless you watch on the computer.

Still find it hard to believe that anyone else will be "allowed" to win the coveted medal other than Patrick, though. I'll be shocked if it's anyone else.

CanadianSkaterGuy · Jan 20, 2014

Bluebonnet said:
Also with a hard fall, he won over a clean Patrick - to use all Patrick nay-Sayers' standard which they have been using for years.

Yep, but for some reason people are more outraged when Chan was the beneficiary of similar circumstances. Hmmmm.... :rolleye:

elee63 · Jan 20, 2014

The battle between Hanyu and Chan is going to be interesting. Both skaters' best performance wasn't their most recent, which just further complicates things. Just hope they both skate without regrets

Poodlepal · Jan 20, 2014

I never thought I would say this, but having finally seen youtubes of the GPF, Patrick was robbed.

Actually, I don't think either of them are all that great. They both are skating very soft, feminine, boring programs. I miss Evgeni vs. Alexei or Brian vs. Brian. Those skaters held me captive. These two are dull.

Matilda · Jan 20, 2014

Poodlepal said:
I never thought I would say this, but having finally seen youtubes of the GPF, Patrick was robbed.

Actually, I don't think either of them are all that great. They both are skating very soft, feminine, boring programs. I miss Evgeni vs. Alexei or Brian vs. Brian. Those skaters held me captive. These two are dull.

Did you see the short programs of both skaters as well? Yuzuru had a massive lead over Patrick after the SP, and deservedly so, I think.

Patrick: http://youtu.be/d3NVbORhgH4

Yuzuru: http://youtu.be/eKAaHWjVgvM

CanadianSkaterGuy · Jan 21, 2014

pangtongfan said:
We know Sotnikova wont skate cleanly so are you saying they would put Sotnikova with even 1 mistake (likely more) above Yu Na with 1 or 2. Sorry I cant see them doing that, even in Russia. The idea of Sotnikova skating cleanly and Yu Na not skating cleanly in the same event, or Sotnikova making less mistakes than Kim in the same event (and that is the only way Sotnikova would beat Kim even with biased Russian based judging) is akin to winning a lottery ticket.

Julia meanwhile is just too weak in many aspects of her skating to beat Kim without several mistakes, no matter what.

No, I was saying that with bs Russian judging, Yu Na can't afford a major mistake against a clean Sot/Lip.

CanadianSkaterGuy · Jan 21, 2014

pangtongfan said:
The bookies (most accurate indicators of favorites) make it clear Yu Na is far more an overwhelming favorite to win than Patrick is.

The reason is Yuzuru, who is a legit challenger. Kim doesn't have legit challengers and the gold is hers to lose, but I think there will be greater PCS bs with Kim's event. Although Plushenko is likely competing in men's so expect 95 points PCS again, lol.

Skater Boy · Jan 21, 2014

Bluebonnet said:
Also with a hard fall, he won over a clean Patrick - to use all Patrick nay-Sayers' standard which they have been using for years.

So Hanyu is the heir apparent; the tide favours him. That's life; momentum changes so fast remember before it was Dai - and he barely made the Japanese team and even then it was hugely controversial (had it been in the US we would have a Mirai much a do about nothing scandal.).

Matilda · Jan 21, 2014

To be fair, Patrick was clean in the GPF (i.e. he didn't fall), but he made many mistakes: in the SP he stepped out of his 3A, doubled his Lz, and ended after the music was over. He was better in the LP, but did botch a spin--Yuzuru got a little higher TES in the LP than Chan, but not much. If both skate perfectly, the men's competition in Sochi will be really, really exciting--and I for one would love it!

Poodlepal · Jan 21, 2014

Matilda said:
Did you see the short programs of both skaters as well? Yuzuru had a massive lead over Patrick after the SP, and deservedly so, I think.

Patrick: http://youtu.be/d3NVbORhgH4

Yuzuru: http://youtu.be/eKAaHWjVgvM

Thank you very much. I had a hard time finding Youtubes in English for this competition. I'm sure those Russian commentators said very insightful, helpful things, but unfortunately, I couldn't understand any of them. I love the British guys!

Having seen all four skates by these two men, the only one that was outstanding was Hanyu's short program. He seems like a different skater in both programs, much stronger and more masculine in the short than the long. I think he may need a better free skate costume. He doesn't seem like Romeo as much as Japanese Johnny Weir. :laugh:

Is Patrick not as good as he once was? I never could stand him and I used to :bang:

when he won with a mistake filled program, but there was always something compelling about him. You could see that his programs were excellent and would be outstanding if he could just execute all the moves cleanly.

I'm not seeing that now. He's skating to dull, soft music in dull gray costumes and it's just blah. He got on my nerves sometimes, but he was never boring.

So, guys, my advice:
1. At least one new costume a piece
2. Don't copy other skaters. Yuzuru, you don't work that half bride/groom suit as well as Johnny, and Patrick, you don't spin as well as Stephane Lambiel, so don't use the same music as he did. Go back to "Take 5" or "Phantom of the Opera" or that Spanish piece with the red shirt.

Hope they listen! :laugh:

Skater Boy · Jan 21, 2014

He Poodlepal - I think it is a little late to make switches to programs. And Hanyu simply is wearing a Weir designed and influenced outfit while Patrick has made 4 seasons his own. Following your argument Lambiel shouldn't have done vivaldi's piece and left it to Usova and Zhulin or the many other great versions of it.

CanadianSkaterGuy · Jan 21, 2014

Matilda said:
Did you see the short programs of both skaters as well? Yuzuru had a massive lead over Patrick after the SP, and deservedly so, I think.

Patrick: http://youtu.be/d3NVbORhgH4

Yuzuru: http://youtu.be/eKAaHWjVgvM

Yup, Hanyu deserved the win based on his short program. He didn't deserve to win the FS though, although his high technical content allowed for it. If the GPF skates are the same at the Olympics, Hanyu should win but I can picture the viewers crying foul if they saw Chan skate clean and Hanyu fall, because casual skating viewers tend to dismiss the SP... Heck even fans who closely follow the sport forget about the SP and cry foul at wins/placements.

Any casual fan watching the Euro pairs would be outraged that S/K lost.

CanadianSkaterGuy · Jan 21, 2014

Bluebonnet said:
Regardless his spins, I think Patrick's Four Seasons is a lot better than Lambiel's Four Seasons.

It is. At the time of Lambiel's 4 Seasons it was great but Chan's FS is way more intricate and ambitious in its choreo. As for interpretation that's a matter of preference, but anyone who suggests Lambiel's 4 seasons was somehow better choreographed or more difficult in general is just a diehard lambielfan deluding themselves, or a Chan hater, or both.

CanadianSkaterGuy · Jan 21, 2014

pangtongfan said:
Lambiels Four Season is way better. He feels the music with his soul and his skates to the music at all times with his body movements and facial expressions, which Patrick in no way does. Patricks Four Seasons is in fact quite boring, regardless of its scoring merit. Years from now nobody will go back on video and watch it again, which many still do for Lambiels better performances to that exquisite program.

Usova & Zhulins Four Seasons is by far the best ever mind you.

Hah, "in NO way". Never at all in his FS is Patrick skating with the music with his body movements. :laugh:

Well, I guess even the haters have their opinion, and will stick with it till the bitter end.

I hope you can at least agree about Lambiel's atrociously garish and tacky outfit... it's one of the worst skating costumes - if not the worst - to appear in men's skating.

Poodlepal · Jan 21, 2014

CanadianSkaterGuy said:
It is. At the time of Lambiel's 4 Seasons it was great but Chan's FS is way more intricate and ambitious in its choreo. As for interpretation that's a matter of preference, but anyone who suggests Lambiel's 4 seasons was somehow better choreographed or more difficult in general is just a diehard lambielfan deluding themselves, or a Chan hater, or both.

I don't like Patrick much, but I don't hate him. He was robbed in that long program!
Anyway, I'm surprised that he would do a program that another male skater made famous not that long ago*. Usually, skaters try not to do that, or at least they used to until fairly recently. And I liked Stephane's costume, with its dead leaves. It matched the theme of the four seasons, or at least fall.

* Of course the exception to this rule is "Carmen." Any skater can do that any time, and in fact, I believe it's written somewhere in the Code of Points that it is mandatory to do at least once. :laugh:

Is Patrick a lock for gold still?

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