Can Lipnitskaya close the gap on Mao & Kim in time for the Olympics?
With Julia Lipniskaya winning the European title with an incredible score of 209.72, she is undoubtedly the favourite to win the Bronze medal at the Olympics behind Mao Asada and Kim Yu-Na. Nevertheless, what is also clear is that Julia is closing the gap on Mao and Kim fast and should Julia maintain/improve her level right up to the Olympics, then it wont take much in terms of mistakes from Mao and Kim to finish behind Julia. That is, Mao and Kim are going to have to be at their absolute best if they are going to win Gold/Silver and if both mess up, then Julia could well end up becoming the Olympic champion. She will of course also have the advantage of skating for the title in her home country.
If Lipnitskaya were to win the Olympic title, she would be at 15 years 260 days old, the 2nd youngest Ladies skater to ever win the title, missing the record of being the youngest by just 5 days (held by Tara Lipinski - 15 years 255 days old when she won in 1998). The current 2nd youngest is Sonja Henie, who was 15 years 315 days old when she won the title in 1928. Moreover, in winning at Euro's, Lipnitskaya became the youngest skater to win the European title
It should be noted that Lipnitskaya's total score of 209.72 is higher than Mao Asada's highest ever combined score of 207.59 (which she obtained at the 2013 NHK Trophy). Julia's personal best FS score from this years Euro's of 139.75 is also higher than Mao's best ever (136.33 from the 2013 NHK Trophy), although Mao's SP personal best of 75.84 (from the 2009 World Team Trophy) is higher than Julia's PB of 72.24 (from the 2013 Rostelecom Cup). Whilst Mao and Julia's combined score, FS, and SP personal bests are all well ahead of Kostners (Combined total = 197.89, FS = 131.03, SP = 69.48), they are well behind Kim's world record scores (all set at the 2010 Olympics - Combined total = 228.56 (WR), FS = 150.06 (WR), SP = 78.50 (WR))
It is impossible to compare scores earned in different competitions as some competitions are scored more conservatively/liberally than others, and no two sets of judges are alike. Hence, if current form were to be maintained, I think that a clean Mao would undoubtedly finish ahead of a clean Julia, as would Kim. Nevertheless, given that Julia has been improving rapidly this season, can she close the gap on Mao and Kim? I would say at this present juncture, Julia is more technically consistent than Mao and Kim. Kim has looked rusty since returning from injury and is nowhere near her 2010 Olympic world record breaking form, whilst Mao's 3A remains inconsistent, she is struggling to find a 3+3 combination, and she continues to flutz her Lutz. However, where Mao and Kim have a distinct advantage is with their PCS scores, although Julia's PCS marks have improved considerably this season. Hence, it is with the PCS marks that the main gap between Mao/Kim and Julia resides.
PCS wise ? No but TES definitely
with their PCS marks, I think Gracie and Adelina have a higher chance of closing the PCS Gap on Asada and Kim
assuming both skate clean of course
At the beginning of the season I thought her ceiling is a 3 place. Right now I think that Mao and Yuna better be clean. There's no room for mistakes She IS a gold medal contender, want you or not.
I think silver contender at her very best
Originally Posted by koatcue
she doesn't have the PCS yet of Gold and Sotnikova
Kim is nowhere near in 2010? No. It's just your opinion.
In recent interview with Japanese TV program(News Zero), Shizuka Arakawa said that she thinks YuNa's form and technical ability are just same as in 2010 Olympics and that's a really great thing about YuNa.
I think if YuNa skates clean program, no one can beat her even Julia.
Her FP score at 2013 Worlds was 218 which is almost 10 point higher than Julia's 209.
And don't forget the YuNa's SP score at Worlds was 69.
Long live the Queen!
If Yuna can't win gold, then I want Mao or anybody BUT Julia to win it. But I am fine with Julia taking silver or bronze.
Why? Sorry for my age discrimination, but the day another 15 year old girl wins OGM will be the last day I'll ever watch this sport.
yes that is a proven for Yuna, she is just too consistent, even if she makes mistakes, it doesn't cost her that much to be off the podium
Originally Posted by yuki90
bronze medal at worst is probably if she makes a complete meltdown for her standards
I don't want Julia win OGM, I like her but she is only 15yo, and she looks like a very competitive person, as if her main motivation to compete is win and if she win olympic gold what motivation she will get? Probable she will retire so young like Tara and everyone will remember her only as a little girl in a red dress at olympics, no more.
Nobody will beat Yuna if she's clean or has only slight errors. She would have to make one and probably a couple major mistakes for anyone to beat her imo.
If one of the Russians should medal, I hope it's Adelina for the bronze. If Julia wins the bronze, then it won't bother me too much, but hopefully not higher. I don't think it's her time yet, she's too young, and not polished. It would be a negative for the sport. But she is a prodigy, and if she can deal with growing up and refining her skills, she could be #1 in the future.
My hoped for podium:
But I think there is a lot of pressure for the Russians to medal, so alternatively this would be fine with me if Mao bombs out:
so basically you dont want Julia to medal because she is 15 years old ? what a poor excuse
then I can also say I dont want Suzuki because she is a skater of 29 years of age
Yes, there are a lot of people who find it awkward to put a very young looking girl who is only attacking elements side by side next to grown women who are trying to do the same but also give a performance and look good doing it at the same time.
Originally Posted by sky_fly20
the only reason some people have an issue with a 15 year old winning
Originally Posted by Ven
was the bad mouth it left to Michelle by losing to Tara Lipinski, still not a valid excuse
figure skating does not revolve around maturity either and there is a limit in PCS no matter how you want it
while Technicality can go way higher
Never saw it. Still prefer Sotnikova over Lipnitskaia at this time.
Originally Posted by sky_fly20
Technically, she's not as powerful as Sotnikova. When they both skate their best, I think Sotnikova is the better skater at this time. I think Julia has more upside though, if two things don't slow her down (growth or attitude). She's like a tornado on the ice, that's the best way I can describe her. If she can develop more depth to her presentation, and not grow out of her jumps, she could be better. But there's also the chance her personality will always be that whirling tornado. Then, even if her body complies, her mind would prevent her from improvement.
Originally Posted by sky_fly20
I think the results of Europeans are highly suggestive that there will be a Russian girl on the podium. I'm fine with the overall placements but I think both Adelina and Julia were overscored and it'll be interesting to see if that is carried over to Sochi and to what degree. I think Yuna would have to really imploded not to finish at least second, and the only one that can beat her is a clean Mao with her theoretic TES. Mao on the other hand could easily end up off the podium, so the highest Julia can place is probably second. Personally I prefer it to be Julia over Adelina. Adelina will of course get the higher GOEs on jumps, but she comes across as sloppy to me. Julia has consistency, has fixed her traveling spins and her artistry is quite good and appropriate for the material she is using. I wouldn't mind at all if she won gold, but she's not yet on the same level as Yuna and Mao if everyone is clean.