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Thread: Can Lipnitskaya close the gap on Mao & Kim in time for the Olympics?

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    Can Lipnitskaya close the gap on Mao & Kim in time for the Olympics?

    With Julia Lipniskaya winning the European title with an incredible score of 209.72, she is undoubtedly the favourite to win the Bronze medal at the Olympics behind Mao Asada and Kim Yu-Na. Nevertheless, what is also clear is that Julia is closing the gap on Mao and Kim fast and should Julia maintain/improve her level right up to the Olympics, then it wont take much in terms of mistakes from Mao and Kim to finish behind Julia. That is, Mao and Kim are going to have to be at their absolute best if they are going to win Gold/Silver and if both mess up, then Julia could well end up becoming the Olympic champion. She will of course also have the advantage of skating for the title in her home country.

    If Lipnitskaya were to win the Olympic title, she would be at 15 years 260 days old, the 2nd youngest Ladies skater to ever win the title, missing the record of being the youngest by just 5 days (held by Tara Lipinski - 15 years 255 days old when she won in 1998). The current 2nd youngest is Sonja Henie, who was 15 years 315 days old when she won the title in 1928. Moreover, in winning at Euro's, Lipnitskaya became the youngest skater to win the European title

    It should be noted that Lipnitskaya's total score of 209.72 is higher than Mao Asada's highest ever combined score of 207.59 (which she obtained at the 2013 NHK Trophy). Julia's personal best FS score from this years Euro's of 139.75 is also higher than Mao's best ever (136.33 from the 2013 NHK Trophy), although Mao's SP personal best of 75.84 (from the 2009 World Team Trophy) is higher than Julia's PB of 72.24 (from the 2013 Rostelecom Cup). Whilst Mao and Julia's combined score, FS, and SP personal bests are all well ahead of Kostners (Combined total = 197.89, FS = 131.03, SP = 69.48), they are well behind Kim's world record scores (all set at the 2010 Olympics - Combined total = 228.56 (WR), FS = 150.06 (WR), SP = 78.50 (WR))

    It is impossible to compare scores earned in different competitions as some competitions are scored more conservatively/liberally than others, and no two sets of judges are alike. Hence, if current form were to be maintained, I think that a clean Mao would undoubtedly finish ahead of a clean Julia, as would Kim. Nevertheless, given that Julia has been improving rapidly this season, can she close the gap on Mao and Kim? I would say at this present juncture, Julia is more technically consistent than Mao and Kim. Kim has looked rusty since returning from injury and is nowhere near her 2010 Olympic world record breaking form, whilst Mao's 3A remains inconsistent, she is struggling to find a 3+3 combination, and she continues to flutz her Lutz. However, where Mao and Kim have a distinct advantage is with their PCS scores, although Julia's PCS marks have improved considerably this season. Hence, it is with the PCS marks that the main gap between Mao/Kim and Julia resides.

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    PCS wise ? No but TES definitely
    with their PCS marks, I think Gracie and Adelina have a higher chance of closing the PCS Gap on Asada and Kim
    assuming both skate clean of course

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    New article entitled: 'Lipnitskaia eyes Lipinski Olympic record'. Reads:-

    Fifteen-year-old Julia Lipnitskaia, fresh from becoming the youngest woman to win the European figure skating title, has now fixed her sights on emulating American Tara Lipinski who won the Olympic gold at the same age.

    Lipinski, now 31, became the youngest individual gold medallist when she won at the 1998 Nagano Games, the year Lipnitskaia was born, after taking the world title the previous year, but retired immediately after her Olympic success.
    A somewhat misleading title. As I pointed out in my initial post:

    Quote Originally Posted by Mao88 View Post
    If Lipnitskaya were to win the Olympic title, she would be at 15 years 260 days old, the 2nd youngest Ladies skater to ever win the title, missing the record of being the youngest by just 5 days (held by Tara Lipinski - 15 years 255 days old when she won in 1998). The current 2nd youngest is Sonja Henie, who was 15 years 315 days old when she won the title in 1928. Moreover, in winning at Euro's, Lipnitskaya became the youngest skater to win the European title
    However, its frightening to think that when Tara Lipinski won the Olympic title on the 20th February 1998, Julia Lipnitskaya had not yet even been born. She was born on the 5th June 1998 - 105 days after Tara's Opympic win. Doesn't time fly....!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mao88 View Post
    However, its frightening to think that when Tara Lipinski won the Olympic title on the 20th February 1998, Julia Lipnitskaya had not yet even been born. She was born on the 5th June 1998 - 105 days after Tara's Opympic win. Doesn't time fly....!
    Wow, I remember it was the first OG I watched it. And it is scary that is Lipinski and Lipintskaya too .

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    At the beginning of the season I thought her ceiling is a 3 place. Right now I think that Mao and Yuna better be clean. There's no room for mistakes She IS a gold medal contender, want you or not.

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    Quote Originally Posted by koatcue View Post
    At the beginning of the season I thought her ceiling is a 3 place. Right now I think that Mao and Yuna better be clean. There's no room for mistakes She IS a gold medal contender, want you or not.
    I think silver contender at her very best
    she doesn't have the PCS yet of Gold and Sotnikova

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    Kim is nowhere near in 2010? No. It's just your opinion.

    In recent interview with Japanese TV program(News Zero), Shizuka Arakawa said that she thinks YuNa's form and technical ability are just same as in 2010 Olympics and that's a really great thing about YuNa.

    I think if YuNa skates clean program, no one can beat her even Julia.

    Her FP score at 2013 Worlds was 218 which is almost 10 point higher than Julia's 209.

    And don't forget the YuNa's SP score at Worlds was 69.

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    If Yuna can't win gold, then I want Mao or anybody BUT Julia to win it. But I am fine with Julia taking silver or bronze.

    Why? Sorry for my age discrimination, but the day another 15 year old girl wins OGM will be the last day I'll ever watch this sport.

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    Quote Originally Posted by yuki90 View Post
    Kim is nowhere near in 2010? No. It's just your opinion.

    In recent interview with Japanese TV program(News Zero), Shizuka Arakawa said that she thinks YuNa's form and technical ability are just same as in 2010 Olympics and that's a really great thing about YuNa.
    yes that is a proven for Yuna, she is just too consistent, even if she makes mistakes, it doesn't cost her that much to be off the podium
    bronze medal at worst is probably if she makes a complete meltdown for her standards

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    I don't want Julia win OGM, I like her but she is only 15yo, and she looks like a very competitive person, as if her main motivation to compete is win and if she win olympic gold what motivation she will get? Probable she will retire so young like Tara and everyone will remember her only as a little girl in a red dress at olympics, no more.

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