Can Lipnitskaya close the gap on Mao & Kim in time for the Olympics?

Sam-Skwantch · Jan 22, 2014

FlattFan said:
When a jump suddenly get +2 and doesn't look anything near spectacular, then you're doing it wrong.

We must have different dictionaries. Julia's jumps are spectacular by my definition. At least among the best in the world by even the highest standards. Maybe not the highest but certainly among the best in the world albeit thru other merits than just height alone. Her distance is very good, which in turn helps her flow back into the program by carrying speed. She lands 3ltz-3t about as gracefully as possible. Her 3t often exceeding her lutz in height. This is spectacular and is almost always better than both Yuna or Mao's second jump on the cascade. I guess we'll just have to disagree but I think if you satisfy the scoring requirements the ISU gives you to perform within, and you accomplish it, you then should be given credit.

sky_fly20 · Jan 22, 2014

Sam-Skwantch said:
See bullets 1,6,7

She doesn't have to be better than ,say Caro, on exits to still get points for it. With this logic would most of the rest of the field get awful marks in relation to Julia throwing down superior spins. I think they all can and do get very positive marks on spins yet no-one is as good as Julia. That is not a slight but a mere fact. I actually like Adelina or Gracie's spins. Not so much for Yuna or Mao but that doesn't make them sub-par does it?

In terms of impressive spin position and uniqueness ( I spin ) Julia wins
In classical Spin position with speed Gracie wins
the Adelina spin position she makes is unique too but ugly looking

Kim was never considered a strong spinner, typical spin plus lack of flexilibity
at least her spin speed is better than Carolinas

Eddie Lee · Jan 22, 2014

My take? The gold is Kim Yuna's to lose, the silver is Asada's to lose. The bronze is open to several of the ladies cited in this thread. Just beware that all things considered, Lipniskaya could end up with the gold a la Tara in '98, Sarah in 2002, and Arakawa in 2006. Yuna Kim of 2010 was the first of these preceding Olympiads favored to win the gold, and actually won it!

sky_fly20 · Jan 22, 2014

Eddie Lee said:
My take? The gold is Kim Yuna's to lose, the silver is Asada's to lose. The bronze is open to several of the ladies cited in this thread. Just beware that all things considered, Lipniskaya could end up with the gold a la Tara in '98, Sarah in 2002, and Arakawa in 2006. Yuna Kim of 2010 was the first of these preceding Olympiads favored to win the gold, and actually won it!

also someone really been in a dark horse contention would be Gracie Gold too
she can have a higher BV than Yuna

Sam-Skwantch · Jan 22, 2014

sky_fly20 said:
also someone really been in a dark horse contention would be Gracie Gold too
she can have a higher BV than Yuna

It's always fun when someone surprises us! We know she isn't putting up her us nationals score though, right. Not sure if she can break 200 which is likely around the bronze score. A dark horse indeed.

CanadianSkaterGuy · Jan 22, 2014

sky_fly20 said:
also someone really been in a dark horse contention would be Gracie Gold too
she can have a higher BV than Yuna

You say that as though she's not the only one. Mao, Suzuki, Kostner, Murakami, Edmunds, Li, Lipnitskaia and anyone else who could potentially attempt 7 triples could have higher BV than Kim (but it will be easily made up for with Kim's GOE).

Kim's BV at Worlds last year was 58.22 ... Julia was over 61 at Euros, Suzuki was over 60 at Nationals and Murakami was over 59 at Nationals, Asada was over 62 at Worlds (Gold was over 60, as was Li), Edmunds had 61 at Nationals, etc.

Ven · Jan 22, 2014

Barring a meltdown, Yuna will score 210+. IF she goes clean, she'll score in the 220s or 230s.

Beat that, if you can.

sky_fly20 · Jan 22, 2014

CanadianSkaterGuy said:
You say that as though she's not the only one. Mao, Suzuki, Kostner, Murakami, Edmunds, Li, Lipnitskaia and anyone else who could potentially attempt 7 triples could have higher BV than Kim (but it will be easily made up for with Kim's GOE).

Kim's BV at Worlds last year was 58.22 ... Julia was over 61 at Euros, Suzuki was over 60 at Nationals and Murakami was over 59 at Nationals, Asada was over 62 at Worlds (Gold was over 60, as was Li), Edmunds had 61 at Nationals, etc.

Im talking about FS

couple with her GOEs taht only Yuna can touch, also Gracie seems to have a new consistency on her side, Frank Caroll seems to be doing wonders for her
I think Gracie will be the only legitimate skater to get near Yuna's PCS if clean, I say this as she too is in gold medal contention
I would say 2 mistakes from Yuna, not that huge of mistakes the podium will be

1 Gracie
2 Yuna
3 open -

Sam-Skwantch · Jan 22, 2014

Ven said:
Barring a meltdown, Yuna will score 210+. IF she goes clean, she'll score in the 220s or 230s.

Beat that, if you can.

How do you score her nationals SP in front of less biased judges? Just curious.

Ven · Jan 22, 2014

Sam-Skwantch said:
How do you score her nationals SP in front of less biased judges? Just curious.

Yuna already scored 78+ with Bond. She's a better skater now and even more credentialed with a beautiful program. If she goes clean she will score 80+ SP. Nobody can touch that. Mao could stay close enough if she's perfect, but clean Yuna should have a 10-15 point lead on the others heading into FS.

Big Deal · Jan 22, 2014

Don't take me wrong. I like Julia, I was one of them who gave her Standing Ovation and cheered to her in Budapest in the Arena.
BUT talking about details of the jumps, how it happened that she got 3 x 0 and 3x+1 (!!!) GOE for the edge-called Flutz!!

She is magnificent and makes an emotional impact on the audience with the quality and natural style and personality.
I would be happy if she was winning Oly Gold, but ONLY if Yu-na an Karolina makes mistakes or pops their jumps.
Mao can be beaten easily by Julia, because of her much worse jump technique (even worse edge and underrotations).
I'm saying that, but also like Mao. I think that her SP is the best so far this season.

Andy · Jan 22, 2014

In my humble opinion, I just don't see what is so special about Yuna compared to Mao or Gracie. Yes, she has excellent jumps, but so does Gracie. Yuna's spins are far inferior to Gracie or Julia. I feel that we who love skating have to remember that this is a sport, not who deserves to win or has won in the past. Whoever skates the best at the Olympics should win. That being said I think Julia has a reasonable chance to take gold.
Can someone tell me what is so superior about Yuna's GOE's because I just don't see it. Her spins and spirals are inferior to other top skaters. What am I misusing???

jenaj · Jan 22, 2014

Ven said:
Yuna already scored 78+ with Bond. She's a better skater now and even more credentialed with a beautiful program. If she goes clean she will score 80+ SP. Nobody can touch that. Mao could stay close enough if she's perfect, but clean Yuna should have a 10-15 point lead on the others heading into FS.

The scoring system has changed since 2010, so a 78 in 2010 is irrelevant. And I personally think she was a better skater in 2010. Her jumps are the same (superior, but still no 3-loop) and I saw more personality in her Bond and Gershwin programs than I am seeing now or last year. If she has progressed at all, it certainly is in very small increments.

Sam-Skwantch · Jan 22, 2014

@bigdeal

I for one appreciate a fair approach like yours stated above. :thumbsup:
On the details,its fair of you to correct me, I thought a flutz was -1 to -2 based on severity. I hardly think even Julia's worst critics would say her flutz is that severe given the speed at which its done and probably in need of video review. So if she satisfies four criteria for a GOE to earn +2 on a jump then also receives -2 for the most severe flutz possible would that not still be a 0 GOE? Do they negate the first 8 bullets if there is a flutz. I guess I'm not clear on this. Under my scenario, would not a +1 be fair if she only receives a -1 for the fluts(edge call)

My spell check does not like the word flutz!!!

RABID · Jan 22, 2014

Andy said:
In my humble opinion, I just don't see what is so special about Yuna compared to Mao or Gracie. Yes, she has excellent jumps, but so does Gracie. Yuna's spins are far inferior to Gracie or Julia. I feel that we who love skating have to remember that this is a sport, not who deserves to win or has won in the past. Whoever skates the best at the Olympics should win. That being said I think Julia has a reasonable chance to take gold.
Can someone tell me what is so superior about Yuna's GOE's because I just don't see it. Her spins and spirals are inferior to other top skaters. What am I missing???

The whole package. The whole being greater than the sum of its parts and if some parts aren't great others are and all the other parts are at least good. Add them all up.... She is like a cash register going, ka-ching, ka-ching, ka-ching....

Ven · Jan 22, 2014

Andy said:
In my humble opinion, I just don't see what is so special about Yuna compared to Mao or Gracie.

Besides her jumps, Yuna's SS are better than Gracie. I mean, it's not even close. Yuna is much faster with less effort. As Robin Cousins said, there's no visible effort, just control of something that happens naturally when she's on the ice. Gracie on the other hand, is slow and you can tell she's trying very hard when she moves through her program. They are on completely different levels artistically too.

Andy said:
Her spins and spirals are inferior to other top skaters.

Yuna's spins are very, very musical. I think people underrate this about her. It seems the "better" spinners are really just trying too hard to impress. Although I do like Adelina's power in her spins. The design might be hit or miss, but man she has some power and FORCE when she spins, it's amazing.

When it comes to spinning, I think I prefer Yuna's lyricism and Adelina's power more than the flexibility of the others.

Sam-Skwantch · Jan 22, 2014

ka-ching, ka-ching, ka-ching :laugh:

Definitely laughing with you here!

miki88 · Jan 22, 2014

bigdeal said:
Don't take me wrong. I like Julia, I was one of them who gave her Standing Ovation and cheered to her in Budapest in the Arena.
BUT talking about details of the jumps, how it happened that she got 3 x 0 and 3x+1 (!!!) GOE for the edge-called Flutz!!

She is magnificent and makes an emotional impact on the audience with the quality and natural style and personality.
I would be happy if she was winning Oly Gold, but ONLY if Yu-na an Karolina makes mistakes or pops their jumps.
Mao can be beaten easily by Julia, because of her much worse jump technique (even worse edge and underrotations).
I'm saying that, but also like Mao. I think that her SP is the best so far this season.

I dunno at this point, Kostner is much easier to beat for Julia than Mao, since she has done it a couple of times this season. Mao has better skating skills and when she lands her jumps, they are bigger and cover a little more distance than Julia's. Since she isn't even including the lutz in her layout anymore, it's really a moot point.

mary01 · Jan 22, 2014

bigdeal said:
Don't take me wrong. I like Julia, I was one of them who gave her Standing Ovation and cheered to her in Budapest in the Arena.
BUT talking about details of the jumps, how it happened that she got 3 x 0 and 3x+1 (!!!) GOE for the edge-called Flutz!!

She is magnificent and makes an emotional impact on the audience with the quality and natural style and personality.
I would be happy if she was winning Oly Gold, but ONLY if Yu-na an Karolina makes mistakes or pops their jumps.
Mao can be beaten easily by Julia, because of her much worse jump technique (even worse edge and underrotations).
I'm saying that, but also like Mao. I think that her SP is the best so far this season.

oh please, Mao has an "e" on the lutz and that's about it, every other jump is pretty much textbook. and unlike Julia's tiny little jumps, Mao's jumps have height and distance something Julias jumps very apparently lacks. Even with Julia's sudden increase of point's, her jumps don't look that much different from the beginning of the season. the judges can increase the scores anytime and to whoever they want, but that doesn't mean that I would take it in any way seriously. as easy as it is to suddenly increase the scores, it's also easily undone, Julia (and other skaters ) has already witnessed this transformation once this season!

Sam-Skwantch · Jan 22, 2014

mary01 said:
oh please, Mao has an "e" on the lutz and that's about it, every other jump is pretty much textbook. and unlike Julia's tiny little jumps, Mao's jumps have height and distance something Julias jumps very apparently lacks. Even with Julia's sudden increase of point's, her jumps don't look that much different from the beginning of the season. the judges can increase the scores anytime and to whoever they want, but that doesn't mean that I would take it in any way seriously. as easy as it is to suddenly increase the scores, it's also easily undone, Julia (and other skaters ) has already witnessed this transformation once this season!

I think big deal may have been referring to Mao's jump technique being worse than Yuna's here, not Julia.

Can Lipnitskaya close the gap on Mao & Kim in time for the Olympics?

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