Can Lipnitskaya close the gap on Mao & Kim in time for the Olympics? | Golden Skate

Can Lipnitskaya close the gap on Mao & Kim in time for the Olympics?

Mao88

Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 9, 2011
Can Lipnitskaya close the gap on Mao & Kim in time for the Olympics?

With Julia Lipniskaya winning the European title with an incredible score of 209.72, she is undoubtedly the favourite to win the Bronze medal at the Olympics behind Mao Asada and Kim Yu-Na. Nevertheless, what is also clear is that Julia is closing the gap on Mao and Kim fast and should Julia maintain/improve her level right up to the Olympics, then it wont take much in terms of mistakes from Mao and Kim to finish behind Julia. That is, Mao and Kim are going to have to be at their absolute best if they are going to win Gold/Silver and if both mess up, then Julia could well end up becoming the Olympic champion. She will of course also have the advantage of skating for the title in her home country.

If Lipnitskaya were to win the Olympic title, she would be at 15 years 260 days old, the 2nd youngest Ladies skater to ever win the title, missing the record of being the youngest by just 5 days (held by Tara Lipinski - 15 years 255 days old when she won in 1998). The current 2nd youngest is Sonja Henie, who was 15 years 315 days old when she won the title in 1928. Moreover, in winning at Euro's, Lipnitskaya became the youngest skater to win the European title

It should be noted that Lipnitskaya's total score of 209.72 is higher than Mao Asada's highest ever combined score of 207.59 (which she obtained at the 2013 NHK Trophy). Julia's personal best FS score from this years Euro's of 139.75 is also higher than Mao's best ever (136.33 from the 2013 NHK Trophy), although Mao's SP personal best of 75.84 (from the 2009 World Team Trophy) is higher than Julia's PB of 72.24 (from the 2013 Rostelecom Cup). Whilst Mao and Julia's combined score, FS, and SP personal bests are all well ahead of Kostners (Combined total = 197.89, FS = 131.03, SP = 69.48), they are well behind Kim's world record scores (all set at the 2010 Olympics - Combined total = 228.56 (WR), FS = 150.06 (WR), SP = 78.50 (WR))

It is impossible to compare scores earned in different competitions as some competitions are scored more conservatively/liberally than others, and no two sets of judges are alike. Hence, if current form were to be maintained, I think that a clean Mao would undoubtedly finish ahead of a clean Julia, as would Kim. Nevertheless, given that Julia has been improving rapidly this season, can she close the gap on Mao and Kim? I would say at this present juncture, Julia is more technically consistent than Mao and Kim. Kim has looked rusty since returning from injury and is nowhere near her 2010 Olympic world record breaking form, whilst Mao's 3A remains inconsistent, she is struggling to find a 3+3 combination, and she continues to flutz her Lutz. However, where Mao and Kim have a distinct advantage is with their PCS scores, although Julia's PCS marks have improved considerably this season. Hence, it is with the PCS marks that the main gap between Mao/Kim and Julia resides.
 

sky_fly20

Match Penalty
Joined
Nov 20, 2011
PCS wise ? No but TES definitely
with their PCS marks, I think Gracie and Adelina have a higher chance of closing the PCS Gap on Asada and Kim
assuming both skate clean of course
 

koatcue

Medalist
Joined
Aug 31, 2011
Country
Russia
At the beginning of the season I thought her ceiling is a 3 place. Right now I think that Mao and Yuna better be clean. There's no room for mistakes :) She IS a gold medal contender, want you or not.
 

sky_fly20

Match Penalty
Joined
Nov 20, 2011
At the beginning of the season I thought her ceiling is a 3 place. Right now I think that Mao and Yuna better be clean. There's no room for mistakes :) She IS a gold medal contender, want you or not.

I think silver contender at her very best
she doesn't have the PCS yet of Gold and Sotnikova
 

yuki90

On the Ice
Joined
Jan 8, 2014
Kim is nowhere near in 2010? No. It's just your opinion.

In recent interview with Japanese TV program(News Zero), Shizuka Arakawa said that she thinks YuNa's form and technical ability are just same as in 2010 Olympics and that's a really great thing about YuNa.

I think if YuNa skates clean program, no one can beat her even Julia.

Her FP score at 2013 Worlds was 218 which is almost 10 point higher than Julia's 209.

And don't forget the YuNa's SP score at Worlds was 69.
 

YunaBliss

On the Ice
Joined
May 11, 2010
If Yuna can't win gold, then I want Mao or anybody BUT Julia to win it. But I am fine with Julia taking silver or bronze.

Why? Sorry for my age discrimination, but the day another 15 year old girl wins OGM will be the last day I'll ever watch this sport.
 

sky_fly20

Match Penalty
Joined
Nov 20, 2011
Kim is nowhere near in 2010? No. It's just your opinion.

In recent interview with Japanese TV program(News Zero), Shizuka Arakawa said that she thinks YuNa's form and technical ability are just same as in 2010 Olympics and that's a really great thing about YuNa.

yes that is a proven for Yuna, she is just too consistent, even if she makes mistakes, it doesn't cost her that much to be off the podium
bronze medal at worst is probably if she makes a complete meltdown for her standards
 

Barb

Record Breaker
Joined
Oct 13, 2009
I don't want Julia win OGM, I like her but she is only 15yo, and she looks like a very competitive person, as if her main motivation to compete is win and if she win olympic gold what motivation she will get? Probable she will retire so young like Tara and everyone will remember her only as a little girl in a red dress at olympics, no more.
 

Ven

Match Penalty
Joined
Mar 17, 2013
Nobody will beat Yuna if she's clean or has only slight errors. She would have to make one and probably a couple major mistakes for anyone to beat her imo.

If one of the Russians should medal, I hope it's Adelina for the bronze. If Julia wins the bronze, then it won't bother me too much, but hopefully not higher. I don't think it's her time yet, she's too young, and not polished. It would be a negative for the sport. But she is a prodigy, and if she can deal with growing up and refining her skills, she could be #1 in the future.

My hoped for podium:

Yuna (Gold)
Mao (Silver)
Suzuki (Bronze)
Sotnikova (4th)

But I think there is a lot of pressure for the Russians to medal, so alternatively this would be fine with me if Mao bombs out:

Yuna (Gold)
Suzuki (Silver)
Sotnikova (Bronze)
 

sky_fly20

Match Penalty
Joined
Nov 20, 2011
so basically you dont want Julia to medal because she is 15 years old ? what a poor excuse
then I can also say I dont want Suzuki because she is a skater of 29 years of age :rolleye:
 

Ven

Match Penalty
Joined
Mar 17, 2013
so basically you dont want Julia to medal because she is 15 years old ? what a poor excuse
then I can also say I dont want Suzuki because she is a skater of 29 years of age :rolleye:

Yes, there are a lot of people who find it awkward to put a very young looking girl who is only attacking elements side by side next to grown women who are trying to do the same but also give a performance and look good doing it at the same time.
 

sky_fly20

Match Penalty
Joined
Nov 20, 2011
Yes, there are a lot of people who find it awkward to put a very young looking girl who is only attacking elements side by side next to grown women who are trying to do the same but also give a performance and look good doing it at the same time.

the only reason some people have an issue with a 15 year old winning
was the bad mouth it left to Michelle by losing to Tara Lipinski, still not a valid excuse

figure skating does not revolve around maturity either and there is a limit in PCS no matter how you want it
while Technicality can go way higher
 

Ven

Match Penalty
Joined
Mar 17, 2013
the only reason some people have an issue with a 15 year old winning
was the so called robbery of Michelle by Tara Lipinski, still not a valid excuse

Never saw it. Still prefer Sotnikova over Lipnitskaia at this time.
 

Ven

Match Penalty
Joined
Mar 17, 2013
figure skating does not revolve around maturity either and there is a limit in PCS no matter how you want it
while Technicality can go way higher

Technically, she's not as powerful as Sotnikova. When they both skate their best, I think Sotnikova is the better skater at this time. I think Julia has more upside though, if two things don't slow her down (growth or attitude). She's like a tornado on the ice, that's the best way I can describe her. If she can develop more depth to her presentation, and not grow out of her jumps, she could be better. But there's also the chance her personality will always be that whirling tornado. Then, even if her body complies, her mind would prevent her from improvement.
 

jennyanydots

On the Ice
Joined
Jul 1, 2013
I think the results of Europeans are highly suggestive that there will be a Russian girl on the podium. I'm fine with the overall placements but I think both Adelina and Julia were overscored and it'll be interesting to see if that is carried over to Sochi and to what degree. I think Yuna would have to really imploded not to finish at least second, and the only one that can beat her is a clean Mao with her theoretic TES. Mao on the other hand could easily end up off the podium, so the highest Julia can place is probably second. Personally I prefer it to be Julia over Adelina. Adelina will of course get the higher GOEs on jumps, but she comes across as sloppy to me. Julia has consistency, has fixed her traveling spins and her artistry is quite good and appropriate for the material she is using. I wouldn't mind at all if she won gold, but she's not yet on the same level as Yuna and Mao if everyone is clean.
 

HalfTriple

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 8, 2010
the only reason some people have an issue with a 15 year old winning
was the bad mouth it left to Michelle by losing to Tara Lipinski, still not a valid excuse

figure skating does not revolve around maturity either and there is a limit in PCS no matter how you want it
while Technicality can go way higher

Competition result does not necessarily determine that winner is better than loser. Speaking of Kwan and Lipinsky, the result is still grey: I won't say Lipinsky beat Kwan although I have no particular objection to the result.

Not that people have objection to age but it has more to do with quality of skating they perceive from performance is divorced from the principle of sublimity in figure skating, I think.
 

miki88

Medalist
Joined
Dec 28, 2009
I think the results of Europeans are highly suggestive that there will be a Russian girl on the podium. I'm fine with the overall placements but I think both Adelina and Julia were overscored and it'll be interesting to see if that is carried over to Sochi and to what degree. I think Yuna would have to really imploded not to finish at least second, and the only one that can beat her is a clean Mao with her theoretic TES. Mao on the other hand could easily end up off the podium, so the highest Julia can place is probably second. Personally I prefer it to be Julia over Adelina. Adelina will of course get the higher GOEs on jumps, but she comes across as sloppy to me. Julia has consistency, has fixed her traveling spins and her artistry is quite good and appropriate for the material she is using. I wouldn't mind at all if she won gold, but she's not yet on the same level as Yuna and Mao if everyone is clean.

Overscored is an understatement. The PCS increase was around 7-8 pts for both. The interesting thing to me is that although Julia has outperformed Adelina so many times, the latter still has the edge in PCS. It seems that it's not clear that Julia is the no. 1 skater from her federation.
 

HalfTriple

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 8, 2010
Overscored is an understatement. The PCS increase was around 7-8 pts for both. The interesting thing to me is that although Julia has outperformed Adelina so many times, the latter still has the edge in PCS. It seems that it's not clear that Julia is the no. 1 skater from her federation.

I am not sure if Adelina's PCS has anything to do with her federation, but Adelina's skating is qualified as a senior, and by and large a better skater than Julia of course. Only Julia was preferred in TES to Adelina by Euro judges, and under the current judging practice that emphasizes TES gives Julia advantage or, shall I say Julia plays smart.
 

RABID

Final Flight
Joined
Mar 17, 2013
The worst thing that could happen is to NOT award an Olympic Gold worthy performance because of age. Whether a person leave's the sport after ala Tara Lipinski is irrelevant. I will say this though, no one talks about Tara like they do Michelle. If YuNa doesn't win the gold medal this time she will still always be up there with the titans for the simple reason of her stellar skating history. It makes her gold that much more precious than Tara's. So I say, bring it on, and damn the torpedoes.
 

HalfTriple

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 8, 2010
The worst thing that could happen is to NOT award an Olympic Gold worthy performance because of age. Whether a person leave's the sport after ala Tara Lipinski is irrelevant. I will say this though, no one talks about Tara like they do Michelle. If YuNa doesn't win the gold medal this time she will still always be up there with the titans for the simple reason of her stellar skating history. It makes her gold that much more precious than Tara's. So I say, bring it on, and damn the torpedoes.

In a realistic setting, it is very hard to beat Kim, and almost equally hard to beat Asada at her best skating, the kind of skating that she did in Vancouver. And it is prudent to assume that both will come back in their top form. In Kim's case, even if she falls a couple of times, she will still poise for top podium. the reason is quite obvious: with -2 mandatory deduction, 3-4 points loss jump GOEs, and additional -2 or -3 in PCS, her usual GOE's points and the kind of program she will put out that secures the top PCSs Kim's score will likely deviate only 7-8 points from her best score theoretically speaking. Of course it is hypothetical and the real situation will make slightly different dynamics to skaters in sochi, but it shows how hard it is to beat Kim even with the life time performances of any competitor out there.
 
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