Can Lipnitskaya close the gap on Mao & Kim in time for the Olympics?

Jewels · Jan 25, 2014

os168 said:
Okay... I will take back about everything I said Kostner's PCS score at EC was repressed, oh boy was I wrong. For the FS, she actually got the highest PCS in her entire career, and 3rd highest of all time. For the SP, she got her 2nd highest PCS only got surpassed by 0.17 at Worlds 2013, which was the 5th highest PCS of all time. I admit I originally got the wrong impression from Sonia Bianchetti article
http://www.soniabianchetti.com/writings_europeans2014.html

According to the rankings of these PCS records list out properly in black and white, it seems they did try to inflate Kostner's PCS as much as possible despite her low TES but just wasn't enough, because others especially Adelina was getting massive boosting too. The overwhelming inflation of PCS this year is truly crazy. Will Olympics set new territory to ensure consistent inflation to all skaters or just the selected few who got there first?

Here are the top 10 highest PCS charts for ladies SP and FP, check out the proportion of TES vs PCS and event it happened.

FS (PCS) Best ever scores
http://oi41.tinypic.com/30agn74.jpg

SP (PCS) Best ever scores
http://oi43.tinypic.com/2ppir1c.jpg

Re: jenaj

I think you are quite wrong about Yuna get inflated by PCS, if ever, certainly not made any difference in ranking. Even arguably she should have like others always got. I'd like you to show me examples when she did and explain how it can justify the PCS inflation that the Russian newbies got this year.

Wow, the pcs these days really are inflated, it surprises me to see the actual scores and comparisons. :eek:

Sasha'sSpins · Jan 25, 2014

Sam-Skwantch said:
@SashaSpins

My ??? Stemmed from my confusion over what you meant. I was not disagreeing with you. I thought maybe you were saying that you once adored Julia but now you don't. If that's what you were saying I was just wondering why. I thought we were both Julia fans...I know I can be a bit overly pro Julia which has really not been received well at times even in pro Julia threads but I make no apologies or hide my view that she is the most exciting and beautiful skater to watch(in my eyes) I'm really glad that you too agree that looking a certain age is not a factor to ever be reflected in the scores. I really hate when people pressure girls to look and act older only to, at some magic point, yet maybe less discussed, be desired to be young again. Obsurd and infuriating not to mention offensive. I for one find her less is more approach very tasteful with not only her make-up but also her facial expressions which are more heartbreaking than anything else, even in her SP.

Back to topic: Do you think Julia has closed the gap on Mao? I say yes. Not so sure about Yuna and she is a bit of a mystery at this point to me at least. I think silver would be great for Julia and satisfy my 'Julia bias' and have me pumped for 2018 when she will be 4 yrs improved and still under 20. She will only be 23 in 2022 and I contend she very well may keep her body type. I work with skaters well into their 20's with a similar body type. Not sure why everyone thinks she is doomed. The girls I know aren't on a world class work out regiment or as focused on the circus stretches Julia must work on for at least an hour a day but now I'm off topic again.

I've no idea how you got that impression from my post. I began by defending Julia's presentation skills:

(original post) 'I don't feel the same about Julia. She's 15 yes but she doesn't skate like a junior especially compared to someone like Polina Edmunds'.

I was responding to most of the previous posts before mine, which seem to be attacking Julia's presentation skills or lack there of, her high PCS scores, apparently mostly due to her youth (which is the impression that I am getting).

And the last thing I said in my original post: 'I'd be delighted if either she or Adelina would win the Olympic title - but only with 2 great skates, not home cooking.'

Again, I fail to see how you got the notion from my original post that 'I once adored Julia but now I don't'. My post was nothing but supportive towards Julia, as well as Adelina. Some are trashing Adelina's presentation skills too - again I disagree. I enjoy her work as I do Julia's. Every one has a different style. As to presentation, different strokes for different folks.

minze · Jan 25, 2014

Ven said:
You seem unable to accept any criticism of Yuna whatsoever. She happens to be my favorite skater. She's the reason why I started following skating again. But, because I criticized the design of her LP and her presentation, you have followed me around on the internet with vitriol and long-winded hatred. For what purpose? Does it make you feel better? You think because I don't like her LP that it invalidates my appreciation for her, I'm no longer authorized to be in the Yuna fan club?

Grow up please, or put me on ignore. Either one, I don't care which.

Don't fight Yuna ubers you need to be united :popcorn:

OS · Jan 25, 2014

Minze2001 said:
Don't fight Yuna ubers you need to be united

Haha.. don't you start. Glad you enjoy the show, we might as well laugh at something among all these craziness before the Olympics.

Ven is an interesting case for sure, I have rarely come across such a self righteous obsessive individual who harping on about the same thing over and over again ad nauseum instead of accepting a discussion should be based on merits, of exchange of ideas, instead of close mindedness and ego and that is perfectly fine to agree to disagree. Look at the way his wave his 'You only don't like me because I don't like Yuna' FS rants and felt had to drag an unrelated old issue, as well as a whole carriage of character assassination, accusation and sweeping generalization only to distort the thread again, wth?!

Yes I have snapped him weeks ago only AFTER weeks of him making these long winded posts over and over again everywhere, then today to check he hasn't misinterpret my post to ridicule them like he has done before (of course he proceed to demonstrated exactly why I find him so annoying to begin with :laugh:

). Just where exactly is this hate and vitriol and long-winded hatred he accuse me of? Do back up all your mud sling I challenge you. Over react much?

This is basically Ven/ToFarAwayTimes and me in a nutshell.

Me: I disagree with you on this.

Ven: Because you are a crazy uber who lacks objectivity and lack the sensibility of an artiste that I am!!!!

Me: I find you annoying.

Ven: Because you don't like the fact I don't like Yuna's FS!!!!

(Proceed to repeatedly insist his deeply emotional 'catharsis' interpretation is the ONLY way to realize for this delicate modern jazzy rendition of Adios with another thousands words essay, and its sequels, trilogies, chapter 64s.)

Me (weeks later): Can you stop being annoying.

Ven: You hateful vile Yuna fan, I am RIGHT for not liking Yuna's FS, I am a REAL fan and here's why!!! another long strand of digital pollutants....again again again... like a broken record.

nagoya · Jan 31, 2014

RABID said:
Yeah. From afar YuNa is probably thinking, "Oh, those Russians are skating so well. Oh, isn't that interesting, Gracie is the American champ. Oh, that young Polina, I wonder if she'll be here in 2018?. ..... Now back to business; what's Mao doing?"

of all the statements here , yours only make sense

TheCzar · Jan 31, 2014

Ven said:
Os you got offended because I tried to break down the program and find its flaw from a critical perspective. Had I simply said "I feel nothing from this program" as others did, it would have made you mad, but that would have been the end of discussion. Instead, I wanted to find out "why" did I feel the program was off? You know, it's not an easy process, because if the mistake were obvious, Yuna and David would have noticed a long time before any of us.

Through civil dialogue with a couple of friendly posters, I was able to come to the determination. You were not one of those people; instead you found the entire discussion sacrilegious. To the people who were friendly and helpful, I thank them.

-----

The first problem with the program was Yuna's conditioning. I feel she wasn't able to express her full potential because of injury, lack of training, and fatigue. She said during an interview after Nationals, that in the next month before Sochi she will work hard on presentation. This and a few other things suggest to me that she was more focused on jumps and levels at Golden Spin and Nationals. So in this respect, we should take comfort to know that Yuna will be polishing her presentation very hard right now, and we are likely to see a much better performance at Olympics.

The second problem with the program ... I don't feel the interpretation was sincere to the music. Adiós Nonino has very powerful feelings of sadness and melancholy that lead to acceptance of finality. The music is about expression of those emotions, that the composer cannot reach final acceptance of the situation without cathartic release. Astor Piazzollo designed the music in a very specific way, where those emotions linger and build until they are finally released at climax, and then by the end he accepts the finality of the situation. Like a Shakespearean five act play the music is constructed as follows:

1) introduction to set the mood
2) rising action ... the emotions build and build and build
3) climax ... cathartic release of those emotions
4) falling action or post-climax ... the performer takes a breath to collect herself
5) finale ... the performer girds herself and embraces the end in a furious climactic sequence

This is why Adiós Nonino makes a perfect vehicle for Yuna's final performance. It's absolutely the right choice of music, but the problem is her performance lacked emotional depth to match the meaning. For starters, there's a crucial piece of music that was cut out of Yuna's version right before climax. It's so vital to building the emotion in the music that in hindsight I can't believe it was left out. When I mentioned this, Krislite kindly suggested that perhaps David intentionally left out that part of the music, to de-emphasize the emotion. So I thought about that approach, and my feelings are that if David and Yuna wanted to go that direction, the music cut should have focused on the later piano sections from the "falling action" part of the music. There's less emotion present there because it comes after the climax. If you want to de-emphasize emotion, use the parts of music that have less emotion in them.

^^^It only took me a month of thinking and many posts to figure that out. In that case, the performer could have skipped the building and building of emotion, the tear-jerking climax, just skipped all of it, and gone for an interpretation of the falling action which contains less emotion in the music.

Instead, the music cut focuses on the "rising action", where the emotion builds and builds. So... if you want to de-emphasize the emotion in the music, these are not the correct sections to include in the cut. But now they are there ... so what do they build to? They build to the climax, and the interpretation must understand this process. Just as Astor Piazzollo built the emotions in the music to a very certain point -- the moment of deep despair in the music that properly sets up the climax -- so to the performer must build the emotions to a moment of despair. That critical part of the music was left out of Yuna's cut, so it will be up to Yuna to make the audience feel the emotions that the music otherwise would have done.

1) introduction
2) rising action ... sadness, loneliness, longing, regret ... tempered with maturity and composure ... these emotions must build and build

What do they build to? They build and build to a moment where the emotions are at their most intense
(which should match with the 2nd half of the step sequence)

3) climax ... the emotions are released with the rise in the music
(the whole program builds to this moment and it must be set up and experienced properly for the audience to really feel the performance)

4) falling action ... Yuna completes the next section including her spin, and then has one final moment to take a deep breath and say "here we go"

5) finale ... the furious final sequence where Yuna accepts the end of her career ... notice in the music there is a sense of finality.

-----

So like I said, the important thing for Yuna's Sochi performance .... there needs to be emotional depth. A sense of maturity. I said it before, she's a 23 year old woman now capable of expressing much deeper emotions than when she was younger. We should not be getting the same performance as 19 year old Gershwin girl with just different music playing the background. Yuna was fun and flirty back then ... Adelina who is 17 is doing fun and flirty these days. Mao seems incapable of moving the audience emotionally because she only cares about her 3As and flashy footwork. Julia is immature and couldn't possibly understand the range of emotions in something like Adiós Nonino, let alone convey them to the audience.

A truly emotional, expressive farewell ... that's Yuna's trump-card over all of her competitors (other than her superior talents, anyway). Why would she waste that? She's perfectly capable of moving the audience with a mature and emotional presentation. I for one would like to see it happen.

I don't like joining in the ubers fighting and I like your eloquent style of writing- but I have to disagree on that point. Though Mao does tend to overthink her 3A, she never forgets her audience. All throughout the quad, she's performed substantially well with more warmth and openness. Her worst season (2011/12) showcased beautiful programs that showcased her style and personality and her exhibition programs are anything but devoid of human emotion. The way you generalise and pigeonhole and 'psycho-analyse' these other skaters are a little offensive to me as a fan, and your eloquence only makes the insult worse. And to be perfectly honest, nobody will ever fully understand the emotional depth of of Adios Nonino but Piazzolla. She's will skate to it the way its relevant to her, or just because its beautiful music, or maybe because she wants to skate another tango. Who knows? You are neither David Wilson, Astor Piazzolla, nor Yu Na Kim to know what's best for her Olympic performance or what she should do to win gold.

And finally, drop the pretentious crap. This is figure skating. If it's not visual it's not worth ****. You can analyse all you want, but that's just chatting bubbles.

BlackPack · Jan 31, 2014

Lip is a very mature skater. She may look juniorish due to her size and age, but that's it. Her presentation needs more polishing, but the maturity and sense of choreography is there. Not sure why people think Yuna or the other veterans are so much better. The only thing they are miles and miles ahead is their longevity/staying power, while Lip still needs to prove herself beyond this season.

With all things equal and supposing that the top 3 ladies skate clean, Yuna and Mao will still beat Lip, but it rarely happens that all the top ladies/skaters ever skate clean.

I love the variations Lip and Sotnikova are doing for their spirals and Bielmann spins. They are masters of the current system.

Sam-Skwantch · Feb 1, 2014

BlackPack said:
Lip is a very mature skater. She may look juniorish due to her size and age, but that's it. Her presentation needs more polishing, but the maturity and sense of choreography is there.

:thumbsup: Thought I was alone on this!!!

nagoya · Feb 1, 2014

pangtongfan said:
They havent met in Russia yet. And their only meeting this season when Julia became a real contender for the first time (as a senior) was in Japan. Julia was scored higher at Europeans than Mao ever has in her career, and that wasnt even in Russia. Mao has it in her power to beat Julia, even in Russia, of course. However I guarantee you that if Julia skates like Europeans or even Russian Nationals, Mao will need her best outing of the season to beat her. Skating like she did at the Grand Prix final and beating a clean Julia is never going to happen again at the Games in Russia, not a chance. An event in Japan vs an event on neutral ground, or an event on neutral ground vs an event in Russia, is already a World of difference. An event in Japan vs an event in Russia is more like a universe of difference.

julia won on euro once and yet it seems like you wanted to hand it over to her the ogm already..do you have any idea how much asada dominated 2012 and 2013? even with errors? dont be too sure about your precious julia because she is also likely to bomb her program like she did last year.

Sam-Skwantch · Feb 1, 2014

nagoya said:
julia won on euro once and yet it seems like you wanted to hand it over to her the ogm already..do you have any idea how much asada dominated 2012 and 2013? even with errors? dont be too sure about your precious julia because she is also likely to bomb her program like she did last year.

Wow. I don't think if Julia skates clean...which isn't that unlikely....and Mao skates with errors which is likely.... the judges will hold up Mao as they did in the past. Lets not forget that the GPF was in Japan. If Mao beats Julia clean thats one thing but another sloppy Mao win would be as exciting as if Julia won purely on home bias. I certainly feel Mao was over scored a few times and I think that well might be dry unless of course she goes drilling in Japan. I certainly hope both skate well and the judges award the best skater of the night.

Isabel_O'Reilly · Feb 1, 2014

nagoya said:
julia won on euro once and yet it seems like you wanted to hand it over to her the ogm already..do you have any idea how much asada dominated 2012 and 2013? even with errors? dont be too sure about your precious julia because she is also likely to bomb her program like she did last year.

What program do you think she bombed? And if you mean from the 2012-2013 season in general: It was the first year that she was age-eligible for the senior Grand Prix while not being age-eligible for Senior ISU Championships (Euros, Worlds) and I'm sure that the only goal that was important to her was making the Grand Prix Final. She skated at the Finlandia Trophy where she took Gold, 8 points ahead of the silver medalist and 25 points ahead of the bronze. She skated in her first GP event and finished with a silver medal just behind World Champion and Olympic Medalist Mao Asada, while finishing ahead of many other top-level skaters. Not bad for someone who was so nervous she couldn't feel her legs.

Let's look at her second event: Around this time not only was she beginning to go through puberty/having a growth spurt but she injured her ankle in training before the start of the competition. She thought of withdrawing but decided to compete anyway when she was feeling better. In the short program she placed first but because of her injury she had a difficult program and came in third instead. Nevertheless she qualified for the Final with a silver and a bronze.

While training she lost her balance on a spin, (probably due to adjusting to her growth) split her chin and sustained a concussion. She had two weeks before she could get back on the ice and train so she had to withdraw from the Final. Theoretically if she was not injured and had competed at the Final she would have placed 4th with her previous level of skating. Ankle fully healed she could have skated slightly better and finished 3rd. With no more international senior events she was age-eligible for, that was the end of her season (Junior Worlds: While she would have made history winning it for the second year, it would not have been very meaningful in terms of her senior career. How on earth can you consider that bombing?

Sam-Skwantch · Feb 1, 2014

I clearly understand why someone would like Mao. What I don't understand is how anyone can hate on a 15 yr old who shows nothing but determination. She also has a lot of potential to grow and push this sport. What's not to like?

HalfTriple · Feb 1, 2014

I don't usually view any event in light of politics , but Sochi will be an interesting case study, especially in regard to Julia and the ISU; what was under the surface will come out. In Sochi, the judges will decide whether or not they continue to uphold the current GOEs onto the junior skating as they have done in the Grand Prix this year. I think it totally depends on how the veteran skaters will put out themselves. If they do as they did in the 2013 Worlds, Julia will have no chance for podium; she will likely finish off 5th. The key is not "clean or not clean" but whether or not the quality that governs every aspect of skating by them can appeal and persuade the judges enough to validate or invalidate their previous judging pattern. The judges know, of course, that there is an unsettling discrepancy that weakens their Julia card when they presents her a figurehead to shakeup the oldies, as apparent in the case of Murakami's recent win, followed by the two runner ups, one of whom was Li in 4cc, the junior skating was put down, which signals that they may abandon Julia if properly set up. Of course this goes actually the other way too. If veterans play unconvincingly, then they may use the event to validate the current judging pattern; then Julia might clinch on the podium. But after watching 4cc, I think it is less likely to prop up Julia in Sochi as they did in the Grand Prix.

Sam-Skwantch · Feb 1, 2014

@Halftriple

While I rather enjoy your posts I feel like explaining why Julia is a beautiful skater to you is like explaining a joke to a computer. I don't know how you can enjoy any skater with such an overload of rigid boundaries you see the sport thru. I mean no disrespect I just feel we have a communication gap that cannot be bridged. Keep in mind there are plenty of people who do not find Julia's skating Juniorish as you always jump to point out. Just because you say it over and over doesn't make it fact. She is an amazing talent and capable of stealing the show at any event on earth. That is a fact you can not overlook. Thank god you don't have to be the best or the most "senior" to win. That would be downright pointless.

HalfTriple · Feb 1, 2014

Sam-Skwantch said:
@Halftriple

While I rather enjoy your posts I feel like explaining why Julia is a beautiful skater to you is like explaining a joke to a computer. I don't know how you can enjoy any skater with such an overload of rigid boundaries you see the sport thru. I mean no disrespect I just feel we have a communication gap that cannot be bridged. Keep in mind there are plenty of people who do not find Julia's skating Juniorish as you always jump to point out. Just because you say it over and over doesn't make it fact. She is an amazing talent and capable of stealing the show at any event on earth. That is a fact you can not overlook.

I think you are right about the rigid boundaries in a sense, but I try to approach with more analytical perspectives to predict Sochi in a larger picture than individual such as Julia or any other skaters like Li or the skater who took silver in 4cc: I forgot her name. They are in essence of the same skating while Julia is better in presentation than Li, the Japanese skater looks better in line than Julia, equally strong in jump as Julia. I just happen to find that closing gap without this understanding or reading between the protocols may be misleading.

HalfTriple · Feb 2, 2014

Sam-Skwantch said:
@Halftriple

Thank god you don't have to be the best or the most "senior" to win. That would be downright pointless.

That's the point I am making. It's not because you are the best or luckiest to win, but how the panel of judges envision collectively for the winning premise of skating at the event will be a determinant. We may argue this or that, but what matters in the end in figure skating or figure politics is the judges, barring no intended corruption. So reading the pattern between the Euro and 4cc just before Sochi is useful to predict the outcome of Sochi. I am not arguing here that Julia's win or not winning is valid or not; only Julia will become a pivotal figure on which we can interpret the idea behind the protocols they will produce. And based on 4cc, I am cautiously skeptical about Julia's podium chance.

Isabel_O'Reilly · Feb 2, 2014

I like the way this article breaks down the major event:

http://en.rsport.ru/olympics/20140131/719178223.html

all_empty · Feb 2, 2014

Good breakdown by Yahoo, too:

Ladies: http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/olymp...kating-preview-ladies-to-watch-222158140.html

Re: Lipnitskaya, they write: "The 15-year-old has three things going for her: youth, fearlessness, and the home-country advantage. She recently claimed the European title and is hungry for more gold" (beautiful photos as well)

Men: http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/olymp...e-skating-preview-men-to-watch-191141950.html

Pairs: http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/olymp...skating-preview-pairs-to-watch-223622205.html

Dance: http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/olymp...eview-ice-dance-teams-to-watch-195807986.html

Becki · Feb 2, 2014

all_empty said:
Good breakdown by Yahoo, too:

Ladies: http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/olymp...kating-preview-ladies-to-watch-222158140.html

Re: Lipnitskaya, they write: "The 15-year-old has three things going for her: youth, fearlessness, and the home-country advantage. She recently claimed the European title and is hungry for more gold" (beautiful photos as well)

Men: http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/olymp...e-skating-preview-men-to-watch-191141950.html

Pairs: http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/olymp...skating-preview-pairs-to-watch-223622205.html

Dance: http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/olymp...eview-ice-dance-teams-to-watch-195807986.html

However, very poorly written. They wrote Asada was the "silver medalist from TORINO" >_< And why is Polina Edmunds on the list

Sasha'sSpins · Feb 2, 2014

BlackPack said:
Lip is a very mature skater. She may look juniorish due to her size and age, but that's it. Her presentation needs more polishing, but the maturity and sense of choreography is there. Not sure why people think Yuna or the other veterans are so much better. The only thing they are miles and miles ahead is their longevity/staying power, while Lip still needs to prove herself beyond this season.

With all things equal and supposing that the top 3 ladies skate clean, Yuna and Mao will still beat Lip, but it rarely happens that all the top ladies/skaters ever skate clean.

I love the variations Lip and Sotnikova are doing for their spirals and Bielmann spins. They are masters of the current system.

THIS! Whole post.

Sam-Skwantch said:
:thumbsup: Thought I was alone on this!!!

Nope - Same here! :biggrin:

Sam-Skwantch said:
I clearly understand why someone would like Mao. What I don't understand is how anyone can hate on a 15 yr old who shows nothing but determination. She also has a lot of potential to grow and push this sport. What's not to like?

THIS!

HalfTriple said:
I don't usually view any event in light of politics , but Sochi will be an interesting case study, especially in regard to Julia and the ISU; what was under the surface will come out. In Sochi, the judges will decide whether or not they continue to uphold the current GOEs onto the junior skating as they have done in the Grand Prix this year. I think it totally depends on how the veteran skaters will put out themselves. If they do as they did in the 2013 Worlds, Julia will have no chance for podium; she will likely finish off 5th. The key is not "clean or not clean" but whether or not the quality that governs every aspect of skating by them can appeal and persuade the judges enough to validate or invalidate their previous judging pattern. The judges know, of course, that there is an unsettling discrepancy that weakens their Julia card when they presents her a figurehead to shakeup the oldies, as apparent in the case of Murakami's recent win, followed by the two runner ups, one of whom was Li in 4cc, the junior skating was put down, which signals that they may abandon Julia if properly set up. Of course this goes actually the other way too. If veterans play unconvincingly, then they may use the event to validate the current judging pattern; then Julia might clinch on the podium. But after watching 4cc, I think it is less likely to prop up Julia in Sochi as they did in the Grand Prix.

Julia is not a 'junior' skater, nor does she skate like one. Her skating is much more mature especially compared to a Polina Edmunds or even her teammate Elena Radionova. If Julia skates both of her programs clean at Sochi, she'll be just as deserving of an Olympic medal as Kim, Asada, Kostner, or Sotnikova. The only problem is that there will only be 3 medals available and there are at least 6 young women who would all be deserving should they all hit.

Can Lipnitskaya close the gap on Mao & Kim in time for the Olympics?

Jewels

Sasha'sSpins

minze

OS

Sedated by Modonium

nagoya

TheCzar

BlackPack

Sam-Skwantch

“I solemnly swear I’m up to no good”

nagoya

Sam-Skwantch

“I solemnly swear I’m up to no good”

Isabel_O'Reilly

Sam-Skwantch

“I solemnly swear I’m up to no good”

HalfTriple

Match Penalty

Sam-Skwantch

“I solemnly swear I’m up to no good”

HalfTriple

Match Penalty

HalfTriple

Match Penalty

Isabel_O'Reilly

all_empty

Becki

Sasha'sSpins

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