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Thread: Can Lipnitskaya close the gap on Mao & Kim in time for the Olympics?

  1. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by sky_fly20 View Post
    the only reason some people have an issue with a 15 year old winning
    was the bad mouth it left to Michelle by losing to Tara Lipinski, still not a valid excuse

    figure skating does not revolve around maturity either and there is a limit in PCS no matter how you want it
    while Technicality can go way higher
    Competition result does not necessarily determine that winner is better than loser. Speaking of Kwan and Lipinsky, the result is still grey: I won't say Lipinsky beat Kwan although I have no particular objection to the result.

    Not that people have objection to age but it has more to do with quality of skating they perceive from performance is divorced from the principle of sublimity in figure skating, I think.

  2. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by jennyanydots View Post
    I think the results of Europeans are highly suggestive that there will be a Russian girl on the podium. I'm fine with the overall placements but I think both Adelina and Julia were overscored and it'll be interesting to see if that is carried over to Sochi and to what degree. I think Yuna would have to really imploded not to finish at least second, and the only one that can beat her is a clean Mao with her theoretic TES. Mao on the other hand could easily end up off the podium, so the highest Julia can place is probably second. Personally I prefer it to be Julia over Adelina. Adelina will of course get the higher GOEs on jumps, but she comes across as sloppy to me. Julia has consistency, has fixed her traveling spins and her artistry is quite good and appropriate for the material she is using. I wouldn't mind at all if she won gold, but she's not yet on the same level as Yuna and Mao if everyone is clean.
    Overscored is an understatement. The PCS increase was around 7-8 pts for both. The interesting thing to me is that although Julia has outperformed Adelina so many times, the latter still has the edge in PCS. It seems that it's not clear that Julia is the no. 1 skater from her federation.

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    Quote Originally Posted by miki88 View Post
    Overscored is an understatement. The PCS increase was around 7-8 pts for both. The interesting thing to me is that although Julia has outperformed Adelina so many times, the latter still has the edge in PCS. It seems that it's not clear that Julia is the no. 1 skater from her federation.
    I am not sure if Adelina's PCS has anything to do with her federation, but Adelina's skating is qualified as a senior, and by and large a better skater than Julia of course. Only Julia was preferred in TES to Adelina by Euro judges, and under the current judging practice that emphasizes TES gives Julia advantage or, shall I say Julia plays smart.

  4. #19
    축복, 축도 RABID's Avatar
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    The worst thing that could happen is to NOT award an Olympic Gold worthy performance because of age. Whether a person leave's the sport after ala Tara Lipinski is irrelevant. I will say this though, no one talks about Tara like they do Michelle. If YuNa doesn't win the gold medal this time she will still always be up there with the titans for the simple reason of her stellar skating history. It makes her gold that much more precious than Tara's. So I say, bring it on, and damn the torpedoes.

  5. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by RABID View Post
    The worst thing that could happen is to NOT award an Olympic Gold worthy performance because of age. Whether a person leave's the sport after ala Tara Lipinski is irrelevant. I will say this though, no one talks about Tara like they do Michelle. If YuNa doesn't win the gold medal this time she will still always be up there with the titans for the simple reason of her stellar skating history. It makes her gold that much more precious than Tara's. So I say, bring it on, and damn the torpedoes.
    In a realistic setting, it is very hard to beat Kim, and almost equally hard to beat Asada at her best skating, the kind of skating that she did in Vancouver. And it is prudent to assume that both will come back in their top form. In Kim's case, even if she falls a couple of times, she will still poise for top podium. the reason is quite obvious: with -2 mandatory deduction, 3-4 points loss jump GOEs, and additional -2 or -3 in PCS, her usual GOE's points and the kind of program she will put out that secures the top PCSs Kim's score will likely deviate only 7-8 points from her best score theoretically speaking. Of course it is hypothetical and the real situation will make slightly different dynamics to skaters in sochi, but it shows how hard it is to beat Kim even with the life time performances of any competitor out there.

  6. #21
    축복, 축도 RABID's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by HalfTriple View Post
    In a realistic setting, it is very hard to beat Kim, and almost equally hard to beat Asada at her best skating, the kind of skating that she did in Vancouver. And it is prudent to assume that both will come back in their top form. In Kim's case, even if she falls a couple of times, she will still poise for top podium. the reason is quite obvious: with -2 mandatory deduction, 3-4 points loss jump GOEs, and additional -2 or -3 in PCS, her usual GOE's points and the kind of program she will put out that secures the top PCSs Kim's score will likely deviate only 7-8 points from her best score theoretically speaking. Of course it is hypothetical and the real situation will make slightly different dynamics to skaters in sochi, but it shows how hard it is to beat Kim even with the life time performances of any competitor out there.
    I think it is a mistake to make assumptions based on how things WERE circa 2012/2013 season. There is a sea-change happening between the old guard and new guard and don't think the judges and other officials aren't aware of this and prepared to help it along. To this point YuNa seems to have stayed above it all, but if you think the judges aren't going to hammer YuNa if she gives them the opportunity then you are just whistling past the graveyard. If she gives them an excuse, they'll pounce like a cat on a mouse. Conversely, if the youngsters like Julia give similar performances like they recently did they are sure to be well rewarded. Be prepared to see similar scores in Sochi.

  7. #22
    Six Point Zero Krislite's Avatar
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    To answer the question, it seems she already has closed the gap. Her personal best is now higher than any ISU score by Mao, and the gap between her personal best and Yuna's best is now merely 10-20 points. If she's clean, then only a clean Yuna can realistically beat her and not by a very big margin. It's definitely stunning how rapid her PCS has jumped in only a few months.

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    Quote Originally Posted by RABID View Post
    I think it is a mistake to make assumptions based on how things WERE circa 2012/2013 season. There is a sea-change happening between the old guard and new guard and don't think the judges and other officials aren't aware of this and prepared to help it along. To this point YuNa seems to have stayed above it all, but if you think the judges aren't going to hammer YuNa if she gives them the opportunity then you are just whistling past the graveyard. If she gives them an excuse, they'll pounce like a cat on a mouse. Conversely, if the youngsters like Julia give similar performances like they recently did they are sure to be well rewarded. Be prepared to see similar scores in Sochi.
    I hear you, but I do not normally put suspicion on judges or assume any intended conspiracy from collective mind of panel of the judge. they might, unconsciously, show preference in favor of newbies to oldies as in Euro which to some could have been disturbingly apparent, for example, as Kostner's resounding defeat to Julia. But if you look into the protocol, it's more due to failure of Kostner's strategy or her inherent weakness as a jumper. Except Julia whose advantage lies with her jump consistency, her jump quality is hard to hold up against Kim's or Asada's. Moreover these two veterans are known for their jumps; they are skaters with different caliber from Kostner in jump department which reduces Julia's advantage that she enjoys against Kostner. By now the two camps realize that they need to change strategy to seal their spots, then, it is nearly impossible for Julia to catch any of the two. They have upper hand to close the door methodologically, if they want to. Of course whether they will do or not is a question.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Krislite View Post
    To answer the question, it seems she already has closed the gap. Her personal best is now higher than any ISU score by Mao, and the gap between her personal best and Yuna's best is now merely 10-20 points. If she's clean, then only a clean Yuna can realistically beat her and not by a very big margin. It's definitely stunning how rapid her PCS has jumped in only a few months.
    It appears in number, but closing gap might be just an illusion. The current ISU scores is predicated on the absence of Kim as I see. If the current trend is applied equally, there is little disadvantage for Asada or Kim whose quality in jump at least ahead of Julia or any other skaters. That's the point. Look at the PCS at Euro. Kostner's almost pitiful performance garnered higher PCS than Julia, which gives an idea that the judges will likely distance Kim or Asada far from youngster in PCS, and remember two footed Asada will not be penalized dramatically which makes Asada try as much radical strategy in jump as she could. Again these two are not ordinary skaters Julia with mediocre, or shall I say questionable jump, can easily overcome when compared side by side. of course there is high chance for Julia than others to get close to them or overtake them but in reality it might be just an illusion.

  10. #25
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    Why do people bring up Tara as an example? Tara was a reigning World Champion coming into the Olympics, so she did earn her reputation despite her age.

    I thought Kostner's PCS was a bit high for her skate, but it was not a bad performance at all. In fact, I found it more enjoyable than either of the Russian girls, and it certainly deserved to have higher PCS than theirs.

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    Quote Originally Posted by miki88 View Post
    Why do people bring up Tara as an example? Tara was a reigning World Champion coming into the Olympics, so her did earn her reputation despite her age.

    I thought Kostner's PCS was a bit high for her skate, but it was not a bad performance at all. In fact, I found it more enjoyable than either of the Russian girls, and it certainly deserved to have higher PCS than theirs.
    By no means I meant to disparage her performance or her PCS when I said "pitiful"; it's just comparative term.

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    Julia was so overscored yesterday. Her jumps are so small, and presentation wise, she's still lacking a lot. I liked the beginning of her performance, but the remainder of the program did not add onto the unique start. The middle and ending was just all about the elements and some arm flailing here and there. Nothing special. The only thing she was rightly marked on were the spins.

    But seriously, 68? That is crazy! It took ages for Mao and Yu-na to get to that PCS! I would understand a 63-64, maybe a 65 at max, but 68? NO. But of course, the judges don't care and are willing to give her high PCS because she is Russian. If she were a skater representing another country, she would not get that score.

  13. #28
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    209 with a strict panel.
    She has a true lutz, ok. I don't know why they dinged her with e calls.

    In Sochi, all her lutz will be getting +2 GOE just like in CoR a few months ago.
    Mao is out of the running now. I don't see her being clean enough. Lip is zeroing on Kim. Her PCS will be within .5 a point from Kim in the SP and 2 points max from Kim in the LP. Her TES will be 73-75 when the Tech controller realizes she's doing a lutz. Then Kim has no room for error. One step out and it's over.

  14. #29
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    Most assuredly the answer is nothing but a YES!!!!!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by andyjo24 View Post
    Julia was so overscored yesterday. Her jumps are so small, and presentation wise, she's still lacking a lot. I liked the beginning of her performance, but the remainder of the program did not add onto the unique start. The middle and ending was just all about the elements and some arm flailing here and there. Nothing special. The only thing she was rightly marked on were the spins.

    But seriously, 68? That is crazy! It took ages for Mao and Yu-na to get to that PCS! I would understand a 63-64, maybe a 65 at max, but 68? NO. But of course, the judges don't care and are willing to give her high PCS because she is Russian. If she were a skater representing another country, she would not get that score.
    I think Julia did too good to be called overscored. Her skating might not be so satisfactory to some extent as it could have been in terms of score, but we cannot deny that she landed triples and she performed such expressiveness and musicality. And judging trend changes. We cannot assume the equal weight from the current scores compared to the old ones.
    I wouldn't underestimate Julia or other Russian newbies; they are indeed a force to be reckoned with in Sochi, as of now.

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