Can Lipnitskaya close the gap on Mao & Kim in time for the Olympics? | Page 2 | Golden Skate

Can Lipnitskaya close the gap on Mao & Kim in time for the Olympics?

RABID

Final Flight
Joined
Mar 17, 2013
In a realistic setting, it is very hard to beat Kim, and almost equally hard to beat Asada at her best skating, the kind of skating that she did in Vancouver. And it is prudent to assume that both will come back in their top form. In Kim's case, even if she falls a couple of times, she will still poise for top podium. the reason is quite obvious: with -2 mandatory deduction, 3-4 points loss jump GOEs, and additional -2 or -3 in PCS, her usual GOE's points and the kind of program she will put out that secures the top PCSs Kim's score will likely deviate only 7-8 points from her best score theoretically speaking. Of course it is hypothetical and the real situation will make slightly different dynamics to skaters in sochi, but it shows how hard it is to beat Kim even with the life time performances of any competitor out there.

I think it is a mistake to make assumptions based on how things WERE circa 2012/2013 season. There is a sea-change happening between the old guard and new guard and don't think the judges and other officials aren't aware of this and prepared to help it along. To this point YuNa seems to have stayed above it all, but if you think the judges aren't going to hammer YuNa if she gives them the opportunity then you are just whistling past the graveyard. If she gives them an excuse, they'll pounce like a cat on a mouse. Conversely, if the youngsters like Julia give similar performances like they recently did they are sure to be well rewarded. Be prepared to see similar scores in Sochi.
 

Krislite

Medalist
Joined
Sep 22, 2010
To answer the question, it seems she already has closed the gap. Her personal best is now higher than any ISU score by Mao, and the gap between her personal best and Yuna's best is now merely 10-20 points. If she's clean, then only a clean Yuna can realistically beat her and not by a very big margin. It's definitely stunning how rapid her PCS has jumped in only a few months.
 

HalfTriple

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 8, 2010
I think it is a mistake to make assumptions based on how things WERE circa 2012/2013 season. There is a sea-change happening between the old guard and new guard and don't think the judges and other officials aren't aware of this and prepared to help it along. To this point YuNa seems to have stayed above it all, but if you think the judges aren't going to hammer YuNa if she gives them the opportunity then you are just whistling past the graveyard. If she gives them an excuse, they'll pounce like a cat on a mouse. Conversely, if the youngsters like Julia give similar performances like they recently did they are sure to be well rewarded. Be prepared to see similar scores in Sochi.

I hear you, but I do not normally put suspicion on judges or assume any intended conspiracy from collective mind of panel of the judge. they might, unconsciously, show preference in favor of newbies to oldies as in Euro which to some could have been disturbingly apparent, for example, as Kostner's resounding defeat to Julia. But if you look into the protocol, it's more due to failure of Kostner's strategy or her inherent weakness as a jumper. Except Julia whose advantage lies with her jump consistency, her jump quality is hard to hold up against Kim's or Asada's. Moreover these two veterans are known for their jumps; they are skaters with different caliber from Kostner in jump department which reduces Julia's advantage that she enjoys against Kostner. By now the two camps realize that they need to change strategy to seal their spots, then, it is nearly impossible for Julia to catch any of the two. They have upper hand to close the door methodologically, if they want to. Of course whether they will do or not is a question.
 

HalfTriple

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 8, 2010
To answer the question, it seems she already has closed the gap. Her personal best is now higher than any ISU score by Mao, and the gap between her personal best and Yuna's best is now merely 10-20 points. If she's clean, then only a clean Yuna can realistically beat her and not by a very big margin. It's definitely stunning how rapid her PCS has jumped in only a few months.

It appears in number, but closing gap might be just an illusion. The current ISU scores is predicated on the absence of Kim as I see. If the current trend is applied equally, there is little disadvantage for Asada or Kim whose quality in jump at least ahead of Julia or any other skaters. That's the point. Look at the PCS at Euro. Kostner's almost pitiful performance garnered higher PCS than Julia, which gives an idea that the judges will likely distance Kim or Asada far from youngster in PCS, and remember two footed Asada will not be penalized dramatically which makes Asada try as much radical strategy in jump as she could. Again these two are not ordinary skaters Julia with mediocre, or shall I say questionable jump, can easily overcome when compared side by side. of course there is high chance for Julia than others to get close to them or overtake them but in reality it might be just an illusion.
 

miki88

Medalist
Joined
Dec 28, 2009
Why do people bring up Tara as an example? Tara was a reigning World Champion coming into the Olympics, so she did earn her reputation despite her age.

I thought Kostner's PCS was a bit high for her skate, but it was not a bad performance at all. In fact, I found it more enjoyable than either of the Russian girls, and it certainly deserved to have higher PCS than theirs.
 

HalfTriple

Match Penalty
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Jun 8, 2010
Why do people bring up Tara as an example? Tara was a reigning World Champion coming into the Olympics, so her did earn her reputation despite her age.

I thought Kostner's PCS was a bit high for her skate, but it was not a bad performance at all. In fact, I found it more enjoyable than either of the Russian girls, and it certainly deserved to have higher PCS than theirs.

By no means I meant to disparage her performance or her PCS when I said "pitiful"; it's just comparative term.
 

andyjo24

Medalist
Joined
Feb 16, 2010
Julia was so overscored yesterday. Her jumps are so small, and presentation wise, she's still lacking a lot. I liked the beginning of her performance, but the remainder of the program did not add onto the unique start. The middle and ending was just all about the elements and some arm flailing here and there. Nothing special. The only thing she was rightly marked on were the spins.

But seriously, 68? That is crazy! It took ages for Mao and Yu-na to get to that PCS! I would understand a 63-64, maybe a 65 at max, but 68? NO. But of course, the judges don't care and are willing to give her high PCS because she is Russian. If she were a skater representing another country, she would not get that score.
 

FlattFan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jan 4, 2010
209 with a strict panel.
She has a true lutz, ok. I don't know why they dinged her with e calls.

In Sochi, all her lutz will be getting +2 GOE just like in CoR a few months ago.
Mao is out of the running now. I don't see her being clean enough. Lip is zeroing on Kim. Her PCS will be within .5 a point from Kim in the SP and 2 points max from Kim in the LP. Her TES will be 73-75 when the Tech controller realizes she's doing a lutz. Then Kim has no room for error. One step out and it's over.
 

HalfTriple

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 8, 2010
Julia was so overscored yesterday. Her jumps are so small, and presentation wise, she's still lacking a lot. I liked the beginning of her performance, but the remainder of the program did not add onto the unique start. The middle and ending was just all about the elements and some arm flailing here and there. Nothing special. The only thing she was rightly marked on were the spins.

But seriously, 68? That is crazy! It took ages for Mao and Yu-na to get to that PCS! I would understand a 63-64, maybe a 65 at max, but 68? NO. But of course, the judges don't care and are willing to give her high PCS because she is Russian. If she were a skater representing another country, she would not get that score.

I think Julia did too good to be called overscored. Her skating might not be so satisfactory to some extent as it could have been in terms of score, but we cannot deny that she landed triples and she performed such expressiveness and musicality. And judging trend changes. We cannot assume the equal weight from the current scores compared to the old ones.
I wouldn't underestimate Julia or other Russian newbies; they are indeed a force to be reckoned with in Sochi, as of now.
 

bebevia

On the Ice
Joined
Jun 22, 2011
so basically you dont want Julia to medal because she is 15 years old ?
I don't have an issue with wonderkids winning. However, I have to admit that I was glad Yuna missed the Turin cut by months and did not have to compete against Michelle. I'm sure Tara's glad too.
 

Ven

Match Penalty
Joined
Mar 17, 2013
Anyone with 2 eyes and a brain can look at Julia and see that she's not nearly the skater as Mao Asada or Yuna Kim. It's disturbing that -- with a flawed program (several of her jump landings were bad, she would have received negative GOE on the last sequence) -- that she could score better than Mao's best ever, and be up there within reach of Kim's.
 

Layfan

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 5, 2009
Anyone with 2 eyes and a brain can look at Julia and see that she's not nearly the skater as Mao Asada or Yuna Kim. It's disturbing that -- with a flawed program (several of her jump landings were bad, she would have received negative GOE on the last sequence) -- that she could score better than Mao's best ever, and be up there within reach of Kim's.

But there's not guarantee that Mao and Yuna will be at their best and if they leave the door open Julia more than has the chops to blow right in.

I don't have an issue with wonderkids winning. However, I have to admit that I was glad Yuna missed the Turin cut by months and did not have to compete against Michelle. I'm sure Tara's glad too.

Friendly suggestion that you check your skating history.

But I get what you mean, as I too can't help but root for the veterans. It always takes me a while to warm up to most skaters. I'm sure Tara, however, has zero problems with wonderkids winning the Olympics. ;)
 

bebevia

On the Ice
Joined
Jun 22, 2011
Friendly suggestion that you check your skating history.
I never bashed Michelle, FYI. Favourites change; some I keep for longer, sometimes multiples happen. I'm not the only. You may also be surprised to hear that I used to dig this video.
While I raved Yuna's 08-09 season, it took me until the GPF before I appreciated her Schez; before then, I wasn't pleased she had the same coloured of costume and the ending pose as Michelle.
 

Ven

Match Penalty
Joined
Mar 17, 2013
But there's not guarantee that Mao and Yuna will be at their best and if they leave the door open Julia more than has the chops to blow right in.

Well I think Mao might bomb this year, but we'll see. My issue is there seems to be an effort to set up cleanish Julia > cleanish Mao, Suzuki, Kostner, perhaps even Yuna. Can you imagine a scenario where Yuna pops a jump and gets a dubious edge call, and all of a sudden Julia with that same Euros performance could be propped up even more and the winner? What a disgrace!

Even if you set aside the fact she looks like a little girl out there next to mature ladies ... her skating skills are inferior compared to the top contenders, her jumps are tiny, and she doesn't have any artistry whatsoever after that opening. I hate bashing her because she's very talented for 15, but this is getting ridiculous and entirely too much now by all the people trying to prop her up against the very best in the world.
 

andyjo24

Medalist
Joined
Feb 16, 2010
But there's not guarantee that Mao and Yuna will be at their best and if they leave the door open Julia more than has the chops to blow right in.



Friendly suggestion that you check your skating history.

But I get what you mean, as I too can't help but root for the veterans. It always takes me a while to warm up to most skaters. I'm sure Tara, however, has zero problems with wonderkids winning the Olympics. ;)

There's also no guarantee that Julia will be at her best. Julia failed to do well at COR, and she even admitted in an interview that she felt the home-field pressure. Julia has also never been at an Worlds/ Olympics before, so who knows if the nerves will get to her? But I have to admit that I am inclined to think that she will deliver. Let's wait and see...
 

joannix

Rinkside
Joined
Jan 10, 2014
Anyone with 2 eyes and a brain can look at Julia and see that she's not nearly the skater as Mao Asada or Yuna Kim. It's disturbing that -- with a flawed program (several of her jump landings were bad, she would have received negative GOE on the last sequence) -- that she could score better than Mao's best ever, and be up there within reach of Kim's.

I consider myself one of those who have 2 eyes an a brain....:biggrin: Seriously do we need to calm down?? though I wish everyone skate clean anything can happen so I still stick with my top 2 Kim/Asada or Asada/Kim :p
 

joannix

Rinkside
Joined
Jan 10, 2014
Actually there is still no guarantee that the all girls will skate at her best or clean...Remember the Ice is slippery :yes:
 

HalfTriple

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 8, 2010
Well I think Mao might bomb this year, but we'll see. My issue is there seems to be an effort to set up cleanish Julia > cleanish Mao, Suzuki, Kostner, perhaps even Yuna. Can you imagine a scenario where Yuna pops a jump and gets a dubious edge call, and all of a sudden Julia with that same Euros performance could be propped up even more and the winner? What a disgrace!

Even if you set aside the fact she looks like a little girl out there next to mature ladies ... her skating skills are inferior compared to the top contenders, her jumps are tiny, and she doesn't have any artistry whatsoever after that opening. I hate bashing her because she's very talented for 15, but this is getting ridiculous and entirely too much now by all the people trying to prop her up against the very best in the world.

Haha, I guess we have to blame Kim for that. Two things got my eyes: First since Kim's and Rochette's hibernation, there isn't a face that represents the figure skating while Asada struggles and Kostner behind the curtain. The ISU's system inevitably readjusts to the field without those who shaped the kind of GOE levels. Second, now it's almost a decade since these veterans dominated. As a new one who is capable of triples emerges, couldn't they be pleased to cherish them as now Kim and Asada and even Kostner likely retire after Sochi? But we will have to wait until sochi but as you saw in 2013 Worlds that's what exactly they stand.
 

Ven

Match Penalty
Joined
Mar 17, 2013
I don't have a problem with Julia beating Kostner at Euros. I never liked Kostner's skating as much as most people, but even they have to admit her technical content is too low right now.

But, even with Mao imploding and Yuna gone ... Suzuki is clearly a better skater and mature performer compared to Julia. If this is a Russian thing, Adelina is clearly a better skater and performer compared to Julia. Just compare Adelina's jumps to Lipnitskaia's. Adelina goes up and it seems like she keeps going up and up into the air. Her spins are powerful. Just the presence of her body on the ice gives more impression than tiny little Julia. And her SS are better too.
 
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