Can Lipnitskaya close the gap on Mao & Kim in time for the Olympics?

bara1968 · Jan 20, 2014

The OP's question itself reminds me P.J's prediction on Yuna's placement in WC 2013 => Third. Oh well, really?

The main reasons why we are having this sort of discussion : Julia is Russian. + Mao and Carolina have not been consistent with their FS. + Yuna got injured. Well, at least Yuna is coming back in her top form. Do not underestimate Yuna's competing ability. Yuna has been super consistent and almost clean in big stages (WC 09, Oly 10, WC 13), and the score difference between her and 2nd comer has been HUGE.

Back to Julia... I personally think that clean Gold should be ahead of clean Julia. Gold has very good spins too. Jump quality is incomparable. When they are both clean, PCS will be very close, even assuming the Russian inflation. And clean Yuna will be ahead of clean Gold, mainly due to PCS, rightfully so.

Yes, Julia is amazingly talented 15 yr old girl, but putting her in the same line as veterans is simply too much and delusional. Any clean performance from veterans(even Carolina's FS) will be ahead of Julia. If Mao can hit 3A even once in her FS, putting Julia ahead of Mao will draw huge backfire. You see how clean Julia was treated from the most important ISU event in past 4 month : GPF. Mao was simply trembling in FS yet she won.

And I am wondering why people are not considering SP at all here. Clean SP from Yuna, Mao (not Carolina) will be ahead of clean SP from Julia by 4,5 points at least, due to GOE(Yuna) and BV(Mao, if 3A can be ratified) and also the PCS difference. (And at this point, expecting clean SP from both of them sounds very reasonable.) That's also how Julia's clean SP has been treated for the entire season. Meaning, Julia should win FS with considerable margin to claim Gold. But it will be only possible if, veterans make at least one big mistake i.e. popping or falling + one two small mistakes(UR or step out), which I do not see happening, at least from Yuna.

Therefore I do not really see Julia as favorite for OGM at all. She can be seen as favorite for podium of course, as the best lady from Europe. OGM favorite is Yuna. Mao can challenge, depending on her 3As. Time flies, yet some things haven't changed.

nguyenghita · Jan 20, 2014

bara1968 said:
All post

Super well said, thank you so much :clap:

Barb · Jan 20, 2014

I don't know how someone can believe that clean Julia beat to clean Mao, it is ridiculous, I even think clean Mao beat to clean Yuna, let alone Julia. But I know, Mao skating clean is unlikely

miki88 · Jan 20, 2014

chapis said:
I don't know how someone can believe that clean Julia beat to clean Mao, it is ridiculous, I even think clean Mao beat to clean Yuna, let alone Julia.

Julia's perfect FS couldn't even beat Adelina in PCS, which means the latter would place ahead of her if they both skate clean. Julia's greatest advantage is that she is very consistent, so the scenario that she will benefit from the mistakes of others is possible. However, she shouldn't be getting PCS that is near 70, because her performance/interpretation level has not increased that much in two months. I am totally okay with a rising talent getting a PCS boost if they truly demonstrate exceptional musicality, presentation, and star quality a la Jason Brown. But in my opinion, Julia hasn't yet reached that level.

rollerblade · Jan 20, 2014

chapis said:
I don't know how someone can believe that clean Julia beat to clean Mao, it is ridiculous, I even think clean Mao beat to clean Yuna, let alone Julia. But I know, Mao skating clean is unlikely

Yep.

I think Mao's FS will do her in, even if she have a SP like in GPF.

Yuna has such a huge upper hand - no pressure or burden, and she's able to relax and focus on enjoying Sochi as her swan song. I kinda wonder if relaxed-Yuna can outperform pressured-Yuna.

dryice · Jan 20, 2014

Hi everyone. I have watched Julia's LP >5x that many people have talked about. Well I'd say that I was moved by her program, but i felt it was MORE because of her music cut. Her skating style on the other hand not so much, at least not yet. Her fast paced upper-body movements were distracting at times on the contrary to the slow pace melancholy feel of the schindler's list music. Technically, yes she could make the gap close-ER but interpretation wise no i don't feel she managed to narrow the gap... yet..

Alex D · Jan 20, 2014

bara1968 said:
The OP's question itself reminds me P.J's prediction on Yuna's placement in WC 2013 => Third. Oh well, really?

The main reasons why we are having this sort of discussion : Julia is Russian. + Mao and Carolina have not been consistent with their FS. + Yuna got injured. Well, at least Yuna is coming back in her top form. Do not underestimate Yuna's competing ability. Yuna has been super consistent and almost clean in big stages (WC 09, Oly 10, WC 13), and the score difference between her and 2nd comer has been HUGE.

Back to Julia... I personally think that clean Gold should be ahead of clean Julia. Gold has very good spins too. Jump quality is incomparable. When they are both clean, PCS will be very close, even assuming the Russian inflation. And clean Yuna will be ahead of clean Gold, mainly due to PCS, rightfully so.

Yes, Julia is amazingly talented 15 yr old girl, but putting her in the same line as veterans is simply too much and delusional. Any clean performance from veterans(even Carolina's FS) will be ahead of Julia. If Mao can hit 3A even once in her FS, putting Julia ahead of Mao will draw huge backfire. You see how clean Julia was treated from the most important ISU event in past 4 month : GPF. Mao was simply trembling in FS yet she won.

And I am wondering why people are not considering SP at all here. Clean SP from Yuna, Mao (not Carolina) will be ahead of clean SP from Julia by 4,5 points at least, due to GOE(Yuna) and BV(Mao, if 3A can be ratified) and also the PCS difference. (And at this point, expecting clean SP from both of them sounds very reasonable.) That's also how Julia's clean SP has been treated for the entire season. Meaning, Julia should win FS with considerable margin to claim Gold. But it will be only possible if, veterans make at least one big mistake i.e. popping or falling + one two small mistakes(UR or step out), which I do not see happening, at least from Yuna.

Therefore I do not really see Julia as favorite for OGM at all. She can be seen as favorite for podium of course, as the best lady from Europe. OGM favorite is Yuna. Mao can challenge, depending on her 3As. Time flies, yet some things haven't changed.

I dont want to sound rude, but if Reputation counts more than actual performance then this would be horrible.

Yunas past doesnt matter at Sochi, it doesnt have to! All that has to matter is what she does at the ice rink there.

Someone clean no matter if Julia, gold or Mao should be crowned the winner if they are better than yuna at those two days.

While Yuna will receive a bonus anyways, i hope it wont be the deciding point to win gold.

That said, may the best lady win

nguyenghita · Jan 20, 2014

rollerblade said:
Yuna has such a huge upper hand - no pressure or burden, and she's able to relax and focus on enjoying Sochi as her swan song. I kinda wonder if relaxed-Yuna can outperform pressured-Yuna.

I don't think Yuna is pressure-free or totally relaxed as she said just want to "enjoy" the Olympic, it's just her way to calm the insanne expected (from media, general Korean, ect) around her down a little bit. Imagine she said something like other young girls such as "I want to win" blah blah IMO the media wil go crazy at all :slink:

But on the other hand, Yuna seems like a type of athlete could do great under big pressure, so either way it's still good for her :yay:

yuki90 · Jan 20, 2014

dryice said:
Hi everyone. I have watched Julia's LP >5x that many people have talked about. Well I'd say that I was moved by her program, but i felt it was MORE because of her music cut. Her skating style on the other hand not so much, at least not yet. Her fast paced upper-body movements were distracting at times on the contrary to the slow pace melancholy feel of the schindler's list music. Technically, yes she could make the gap close-ER but interpretation wise no i don't feel she managed to narrow the gap... yet..

Agreed, Julia's spin is the best ever but her jumps remind me of Caroline Zhang.
Caroline's spin was sensational too when she was at 15 like Julia.
I think Julia's jump mechanism looks very similar to Caroline's. Julia is more consistent though.

RABID · Jan 20, 2014

chapis said:
I don't know how someone can believe that clean Julia beat to clean Mao, it is ridiculous, I even think clean Mao beat to clean Yuna, let alone Julia. But I know, Mao skating clean is unlikely

Yeah. From afar YuNa is probably thinking, "Oh, those Russians are skating so well. Oh, isn't that interesting, Gracie is the American champ. Oh, that young Polina, I wonder if she'll be here in 2018?. ..... Now back to business; what's Mao doing?" :laugh:

bara1968 · Jan 20, 2014

To ALEX D :

Yes of course, the best lady should win. I was talking about how those ladies would be judged, BASED on their performances and technical skills, nothing more.

Yuna is OGM favorite due to her known consistency especially under the pressure, unmatched jumping technigue, and her performing ability (including exceptional musicality, skating skills, interpretation etc) when she's on, not based on her reputation. Carolina has far better reputation than Julia, but i do not consider her as bigger favorite for podium than Julia at this point, based on her inconsistency during this season.

nguyenghita · Jan 20, 2014

Alex D said:
I dont want to sound rude, but if Reputation counts more than actual performance then this would be horrible.

Yunas past doesnt matter at Sochi, it doesnt have to! All that has to matter is what she does at the ice rink there.

Someone clean no matter if Julia, gold or Mao should be crowned the winner if they are better than yuna at those two days.

While Yuna will receive a bonus anyways, i hope it wont be the deciding point to win gold.

That said, may the best lady win

I don't understand what you're reply to? Where is the part from bara1968's post said about "reputation bonus" or Yuna's past? The PCS score is not all about reputation, you know?

Even if Yuna make mistake (s) and Julia make less than her, we still have thing called "overall quality", not reputation

And in case you talk about a bonus for Yuna, before that, you should talk about a home ice inflation first, Russians will be ones benefit most :laugh:

Panini · Jan 20, 2014

Why is "looking like a little girl" considered a flaw? Last I checked, figure skating is a sport, not a beauty pageant. Why does Julia need a womanly figure (a "mature" body) to be worthy of certain marks? If a skater's appearance is being taken into account when scoring, should the judges start giving bonuses to skaters with pretty faces too? Or take off marks to girls with less attractive facial features?

I'm NOT saying clean Julia should beat clean Yuna or even slightly flawed Yuna. I just find the logic of "Julia still looks like a kid so she doesn't deserve high marks" totally absurd.

herehere! · Jan 20, 2014

yuki90 said:
Agreed, Julia's spin is the best ever but her jumps remind me of Caroline Zhang.
Caroline's spin was sensational too when she was at 15 like Julia.
I think Julia's jump mechanism looks very similar to Caroline's. Julia is more consistent though.

Yeah. She's very lucky that the Olympics at her country coincides with this moment in her career. It'd be interesting to see how grows up post-Olympics. I hope she is able to correct / adjust her jumping techniques and retains a good portion of her flexibility...that might be a tall order

nguyenghita · Jan 20, 2014

Panini said:
I'm NOT saying clean Julia should beat clean Yuna or even slightly flawed Yuna. I just find the logic of "Julia still looks like a kid so she doesn't deserve high marks" totally absurd.

Look like a kid is not a problem here, she skates still like a kid, of course, a genius kid

Julia is the top among young girls now. She has great spins and most imortant, super consistent. But the rest did not really stand out, not her small jums, not her artistry, not her skill ... So she did not deserve high marks to compare with the top veterans. Her close to 70 PCS was totally a joke, again, not because she looks like kid :rolleye:

Ven · Jan 20, 2014

Sam-Skwantch said:
Ven- I mean no disrespect but the way you attack, attack, attack reminds me of a certain persons FS. This line of thought seems to be the very one people on panels and in federations use to "inflate" scores. I just don't find it helpful. I do love your passion and take it with a grain of salt. I just think you could relax a bit and just enjoy what is sure to be an amazing show. I for one will be crying if a spastic tornado sweeps up the hearts of the whole world to the soundtrack of yet another standing ovation. There, I too have said it. Best wishes!!

I think Julia is a fine young skater. The best of her age. If she were compared next to girls her own age, I would give her nothing but compliments and praise.

Even next to the mature ladies, if she scored fairly, I would also give her mostly praise and be looking for her to be among the top skaters in coming years. If she gives a brilliant skate at Sochi and kind of plays the role Mirai or Joannie played in Vancouver, emotional and/or up and coming performance that is contending for the bronze or just off the podium ... I think that sums up her abilities at the present time.

However, the reason I am critical of her is only because her scores against the top ladies are not reflective of her abilities at this time. She's good, but she's not that good -- at least not yet. It's kind of a crime that Adelina skated her SP at Euros so well and beat Julia by less than a single point, when the difference their technical and presentation abilities is so obviously noticeable. It's true that if better skaters falter and Julia delivers a great skate, she should be the deserved winner ... but if we compare apples to apples, how can anyone think -- at this time -- her abilities are nearly on par with Yuna Kim, Mao Asada, Akiko Suzuki, perhaps Carolina Kostner, and her own teammate Adelina Sotnikova?

wootie · Jan 20, 2014

I agree. Julia is obviously a very talented technical skater and has nerves of steel (usually). However, her artistic abilities are not fully developed (at all), and her presentation is somehow very busy while being exceptionally boring. Anyway, I imagine she'll develop as an artist considering she's only fifteen. However, she has a rather bland face and overall appearance...it will definitely make it harder for her to be an interesting skater, although I suspect she'll generally be a reliable technical skater.

ForeverFish · Jan 20, 2014

IMO, Julia was ridiculously overscored at Euros. Her PCS in the free-skate came within 0.41 points of Mao's PCS at 2013 Worlds, and her overall score was higher than Mao's at the 2010 Olympics ... you kiddin' me, judges? Unfortunately, with the Olympics in her home country, she's likely to receive an even more outlandish boost.

While I think that Julia is definitely in the running for a medal in Sochi, I also think that many people are underestimating Yuna's competitive fire and Mao's superior artistry. Mao isn't known for skating clean, but even so, she should have to make major mistakes in both programs for Julia to slip ahead of her. And 6-triple Yuna has demonstrated that she doesn't need to be clean to win. She has held it together, without fail, every time it's really counted -- at 2009 Worlds, 2010 Olympics, and 2013 Worlds.

Robeye · Jan 20, 2014

ForeverFish said:
IMO, Julia was ridiculously overscored at Euros. Her PCS in the free-skate came within 0.41 points of Mao's PCS at 2013 Worlds, and her overall score was higher than Mao's at the 2010 Olympics ... you kiddin' me, judges? Unfortunately, with the Olympics in her home country, she's likely to receive an even more outlandish boost.

While I think that Julia is definitely in the running for a medal in Sochi, I also think that many people are underestimating Yuna's competitive fire and Mao's superior artistry. Mao isn't known for skating clean, but even so, she should have to make major mistakes in both programs for Julia to slip ahead of her. And 6-triple Yuna has demonstrated that she doesn't need to be clean to win. She has held it together, without fail, every time it's really counted -- at 2009 Worlds, 2010 Olympics, and 2013 Worlds.

Amen. I'm pretty confident that the Old Girls

biggrin

are going to school the young 'uns one more time in what's what before they hang up their skates.

Layfan · Jan 20, 2014

Ven said:
I think Julia is a fine young skater. The best of her age. If she were compared next to girls her own age, I would give her nothing but compliments and praise.

Even next to the mature ladies, if she scored fairly, I would also give her mostly praise and be looking for her to be among the top skaters in coming years. If she gives a brilliant skate at Sochi and kind of plays the role Mirai or Joannie played in Vancouver, emotional and/or up and coming performance that is contending for the bronze or just off the podium ... I think that sums up her abilities at the present time.

However, the reason I am critical of her is only because her scores against the top ladies are not reflective of her abilities at this time. She's good, but she's not that good -- at least not yet. It's kind of a crime that Adelina skated her SP at Euros so well and beat Julia by less than a single point, when the difference their technical and presentation abilities is so obviously noticeable. It's true that if better skaters falter and Julia delivers a great skate, she should be the deserved winner ... but if we compare apples to apples, how can anyone think -- at this time -- her abilities are nearly on par with Yuna Kim, Mao Asada, Akiko Suzuki, perhaps Carolina Kostner, and her own teammate Adelina Sotnikova?

No. In terms of sheer quality, she won't "close the gap." How is she going to get Kim Yuna's speed and skating skills (or Caro's) in time for the Olympics, or Mao's exquisite and unmatched artistry? But she is sure talented enough to make the others sweat. The gap isn't so far that the others can afford too many mistakes. However, what happens if Kim and Mao nail their short programs? I would put them way ahead of Julia and frankly, way ahead of the rest of the field. Both of them have such gorgeous SPs. If they nail it, I think the judges will be happy to put a big distance between those two and the rest.

Sounds like last Olympics. Except the difference is that this time, Kim and Mao are facing a whole bunch of ladies that have the big jump combos but aren't just jumpers. Julia is going to get big marks for her spins as are Adelina and Gracie. And all three of them look well trained and in control this season, as least in their most recent skates. And Adelina and Gracie won their nationals and Julia won Euros.

I love, love Akiko and she has momentum after nationals but she's vulnerable because she doesn't have as much difficulty and she needs to be totally perfect.

Can Lipnitskaya close the gap on Mao & Kim in time for the Olympics?

bara1968

nguyenghita

Barb

miki88

rollerblade

dryice

Alex D

nguyenghita

yuki90

RABID

bara1968

nguyenghita

Panini

herehere!

nguyenghita

Ven

Match Penalty

wootie

Match Penalty

ForeverFish

Robeye

Layfan

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