Can Lipnitskaya close the gap on Mao & Kim in time for the Olympics?

Has anyone watched Mao at Japan Nationals? If she skates like that where does she place in Sochi? I don't contend that Julia should have won GPF but I do contend that was actually a sub 200 score for Mao minus home inflation. So by my deflation of the GPF score that would be two scores under 200 in her last two skates. I'll play devils advocate and say Mao deserved that 204 at GPF(gulp...alright I said it). Julia did not skate her cleanest program possible at Euros. Even if she isn't re-working her routine, which I suspect she might just to back load some of the jump content, she should still manage a decent score 198-202 without too much backlash, right. I contend Mao has closed the gap herself.

Julia and even Mao need Yuna to be resurfacing the ice with her dress for either of them to be in the hunt. Yuna clearly is the favorite so thats all i worry about that.

I just dont think Mao lives up to the hype considering the way the she has performed leading into Sochi. I'm not into Mao's opening with the over 1 minute of less then exciting pushing around the rink and doing two less than reliable 3a. Just plain boring to me and clearly a prime example of ,what people have criticized Julia of, racking up technical score with no artistic value. But..... at the music break and she stops her spin and then the music changes Mao let's loose and its amazing behold...wow.

I think if Julia goes lights out perfect she could earn a score of 202 very easily, I said lights out mind you. That should at least hunt a silver especially if the judges bump her for being home, not unlike Mao in Japan. I hope not because nobody should win based on anything outside of the rink doors.

If Mao or anyone else bombs and Julia gives a good performance, of course Julia should finish ahead. I agree, only what happens on that night should be considered. But, we have to assume the skills of the competitors are not going to change by and large in the next few weeks, it's only a matter if they perform in the moment or not. My issue with some posters -- they think if Julia skates clean only a perfect Yuna could beat her ... what? That's just preposterous to me. Even some say that Yuna would have to be absolutely perfect to win. Again, makes no sense to me.

I think a dream-scenario for Julia would be... she gives a performance like she just gave at Euros, the veterans open up the door just enough, then she gets the bronze with a memorable performance and everyone is looking for her to be a gold contender in 4 years.

Anything more than that seems to be pushing the agenda too much beyond realism, given her current level of skating and artistry compared to the other contenders.

^ However, the games are being held in corRupt - sia...let's face it, there are a lot of things going on under the table that we are not aware of that could easily swing this thing in favor of Julia or Adelina.

yuki90 said:

Agreed, Julia's spin is the best ever but her jumps remind me of Caroline Zhang.
Caroline's spin was sensational too when she was at 15 like Julia.
I think Julia's jump mechanism looks very similar to Caroline's. Julia is more consistent though.

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Julia just doesn't have the time or the power to catch up now. And I fear puberty will destroy her by next year.

wootie said:

^ However, the games are being held in corRupt - sia...let's face it, there are a lot of things going on under the table that we are not aware of that could easily swing this thing in favor of Julia or Adelina.

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Not sure how russia can control the judges. I think it is important to remember Julia, Adelina, V and T etc aren't exactly chopped liver.

Skater Boy said:

Not sure how russia can control the judges. I think it is important to remember Julia, Adelina, V and T etc aren't exactly chopped liver.

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Um, it's called money, bribes, threats...so many ways for Russia to make its dreams come true!

I think subjectively I would rank the top contenders this way if we had pre-Olympic rankings based on their best possible skates:

1. Yuna Kim
2. Mao Asada
3. Akiko Suzuki
4. Adelina Sotnikova
5. Julia Lipnitskaia
6. Ashley Wagner
7. Gracie Gold

Assuming Yuna doesn't melt down and she has such a huge head start and ceiling compared to the Russian girls, that would mean Julia would need to
1. skate well
2. beat Adelina
3. have Mao or Akiko splat

Then she could podium, or both her and Adelina could if both of the Japanese ladies fall out.

Gracie and Ashley are in the same outsider position, but they need the Russians to falter. The Russians have home ice and in my opinion are better skaters anyway.

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However, it comes down to the protocols. In this case, I think Julia's recent PCS has been inflated way too high, and her GOEs are not accurate either. Her PCS for a good free skate should be struggling to break 60. I will be outraged if she flirts with 70 and finishes within a few points of Yuna PCS territory, or even a clean Akiko cannot beat her PCS or by not much. That would be an outrage. Give Julia the credit on her jumps (with accurate GOE) but the PCS marks are not accurate in my opinion.

Yuna vs. Julia
Yuna can score close to 80 clean SP. Julia should be in the 60s.
This means Yuna should not have to be "perfect" to beat a clean Julia. There's margin of error there in my opinion.
If Yuna puts her hand on the ice like Golden Spin or pops a jump, as long as she doesn't get sloppy, she comfortably beats Julia imo.

Mao vs. Julia
Mao can again get into the 70s in SP with significant edge of Julia.
Mao's FS weakness is when she messes up early, she tends to not care about the rest of the performance.
If she replicates, Julia can beat her in the FS.
However, if Mao gives "Bells" performance like Vancouver, good performance with mistake or two at the end, I think she still edges out clean Julia.

Akiko vs. Julia
Suzuki gets under-marked and Julia gets over-marked, we all know it.
Akiko should not get all +2s and +3s on her jumps like she did at JNats,
however it would be an outrage if there is minimal difference in PCS between Akiko and Julia.
Their GOEs should be comparable a lot of the time too.

If Akiko gives FS like JNats, she should deservedly score 130s maybe ~140 imo. Nobody could deny her the podium with a skate like that.

Adelina vs. Julia
Adelina has better skating skills and presentation than Julia. She's just not as consistent.
However, even when she nails the performance, her score does not reflect the difference between her and Julia.
Look at SP at Euros ... Adelina surrendered some BV but GOEs and PCS are not reflective of the difference in their abilities.
Even clean Adelina scored essentially the same score as Julia ... injustice.

Sam-Skwantch said:

Has anyone watched Mao at Japan Nationals? If she skates like that where does she place in Sochi? I don't contend that Julia should have won GPF but I do contend that was actually a sub 200 score for Mao minus home inflation. So by my deflation of the GPF score that would be two scores under 200 in her last two skates. I'll play devils advocate and say Mao deserved that 204 at GPF(gulp...alright I said it).

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Well, if you look at the protocals at GPF she made mistakes on her axels and but got credited for 5 triples. It was a much better performance than her Nationals, from a technical point and equalled her jump count at NHK. Do you seriously think the level of home inflation at GPF equalled the one seen at COR? Mao's PCS at GPF was around what Kostner was getting during the GP events when she was only landing 3-4 clean triples. I don't see how her score could be that inflated.

Ven said:

I think subjectively I would rank the top contenders this way if we had pre-Olympic rankings based on their best possible skates:

1. Yuna Kim
2. Mao Asada
3. Akiko Suzuki
4. Adelina Sotnikova
5. Julia Lipnitskaia
6. Ashley Wagner
7. Gracie Gold

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No way near-clean Julia/Adelina will lose to Akiko. Akiko was never a darling of the international judges, and don't expect her to receive any favor in Sochi. Her best performances/scores came from Japan.

Right now, the contenders are Yuna, Mao, Julia & Adelina, with Graice and CaroK having outside shot if they skate lights out and the Top 4 falter.

YunaBliss said:

No way near-clean Julia/Adelina will lose to Akiko. Akiko was never a darling of the international judges, and don't expect her to receive any favor in Sochi. Her best performances/scores came from Japan.

Right now, the contenders are Yuna, Mao, Julia & Adelina, with Graice and CaroK having outside shot if they skate lights out and the Top 4 falter.

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I think people underestimate how good Akiko's program is this year. If she skates clean it gives her a big advantage like Julia's packaging and Mao's. The other ladies LPs don't compare.

I disagree with Gracie and CaroK, Carolina hasn't shown any ability this season at all to score among the final 6.

HalfTriple said:

Of course, never say never. But Chapis's assertion is fair and reasonable based on track record. The hype over Julia is just an illusion, just as Suzuki earned in Japan nationals over 210, or Osmond won national with 207 or something. People begin to think they are all too good not to clinch the podium. the word of wisdom: skaters do not become a phenom over night. What is really annoying is that the current ISU judging trend deludes people with big number without content. Remember the 2013 Worlds, the standing won't change much in Sochi as well as the gap between top rankers and the followers.

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Julia is that good. In three years, (I am counting her undefeated junior year) she has never finished off the podium in any international competition. In fact, she has only finished third once, the rest were either gold (9 times) or silver (3 times). No matter which way you look at it that is a truly unbelievable record. By a set of INTERNATIONAL judges Julia has achieved a score higher than 190 points 5 times this season out of 5 times and two of those were over 195. That is impressive, even if you insist on quibbling over Rostelecom Cup (which she managed to hang onto to victory by a mere 0.68 points because of her TECHINICAL element score from the short program that she skated perfectly).

miki88 said:

Well, if you look at the protocals at GPF she made mistakes on her axels and but got credited for 5 triples. It was a much better performance than her Nationals, from a technical point and equalled her jump count at NHK. Do you seriously think the level of home inflation at GPF equalled the one seen at COR? Mao's PCS at GPF was around what Kostner was getting during the GP events when she was only landing 3-4 clean triples. I don't see how her score could be that inflated.

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Even if Mao was inflated by two points which seems a reasonable assumption ,at least I think. That puts her at 202 which seems a likely score for both girls given this years performances. I think a lights out Julia, which is very possible, can achieve this. Therefore closing the gap.

I've said all along Julia should contend for bronze and has a shot at silver if Mao stumbles. Gold very unlikely but possible non the less.

About Rostelecom Cup-Julia and her mother in interview said they were surprised to beat Kostner. Watch her face as the score comes up and tell me she doesn't think she should have lost. It really was her best SP all season but that was it!! I've seen no one dispute the inflation here nor should they. I have on the other hand heard quite a few people deny Mao's inflation at GPF. Some skaters just have golden passes it seems.

I do think Mao has inflation this year. I've found her lackluster, unable to put it all together. Her brilliance comes in fits and starts, but not from beginning to end this season.

That said, if she delivers, she's clearly #2 in my opinion.

I like Akiko. But her 'O' program was very well received, more than her long program this year, but her PCS didn't get a major boost even when she skated it really well. She didn't even reach the level of PCS of the Russian girls when she gave her best performance of it at WTT, a cheesefest event held in Japan. I don't see her getting a major boost in Sochi, especially if the others skate well, and Julia has a much higher chance of skating clean than Akiko.

If Akiko doesn't go clean, it will be a moot point. But she has a reputation now compared to NHK last season. She won JNats and has momentum with her federation finally getting support behind her.

Her and Julia have the most to gain from going clean in the FS this year because they have the two best LPs. Having the best program doesn't mean much if someone makes mistakes, but having the best program and going clean together is a huge advantage.

Yuna has the best SP, so it's a huge advantage if she goes clean and gets near 80, she will have margin of error in the FS and still win IMO.

If Julia tweaks her jumps to reflect similar to her Euro program due to extra wonky 2a. Could she not score another ~72 Technical score. With only a 65 PCS(is this not fair too) she then totals up to...137 in the FS. So then with only a 65 in the SP( I think that's low) she then achieves a 202. I suspect much to some people's dismay she will be closer to 70 in SP.

Here is what I can't figure. What will Yuna score?

Ven said:

Having the best program doesn't mean much if someone makes mistakes, but having the best program and going clean together is a huge advantage.

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Sorry to quote myself

But I wanted to expound on this point just a bit more. I noticed in the protocols for Yuna's WC last season ... even some of the stingier judges gave her all +3s toward the end of the program. They started out with lower GOE (0 or +1) and then all of a sudden by the end of the program it markedly jumped to +3 ... +3 .... +3.

There's just something about having a good program, going clean, and all of that magic coming together. Even the judges get influenced. This is why I think Akiko and Julia have the most to gain if they go clean. Akiko moreso because Julia already has the home ice advantage to her score.

Sam-Skwantch said:

Here is what I can't figure. What will Yuna score?

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I think 210+ is guaranteed barring a meltdown.

YunaBliss said:

Right now, the contenders are Yuna, Mao, Julia & Adelina, with Graice and CaroK having outside shot if they skate lights out and the Top 4 falter.

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I don't feel the same about Julia. She's 15 yes but she doesn't skate like a junior especially compared to someone like Polina Edmunds. I'd be delighted if either she or Adelina would win the Olympic title - but only with 2 great skates, not home cooking.

Sasha'sSpins said:

I don't feel the same about Julia.

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??? :think:???