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Thread: Carolina Kostner’s chances at the Olympics?

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    Carolina Kostner’s chances at the Olympics?

    After Worlds last season, it looked as if Yuna Kim, Mao Asada and Carolina Kostner were the three favorites for the Olympic podium. However, I believe Carolina has lost a lot of ground/momentum this season, and at this point, I would be surprised to see her make the Olympic podium.

    She delivered a clean short program at Europeans and was still beaten by two Russian girls, one of whom (Sotnikova) had basically the same jump content as her. And in the free program, she does not have the technical content to compete with young girls like Lipnitskaia, Sotnikova, Gold, etc. Her spins and jump difficulty are lagging behind many of her competitors.

    At Europeans, the judges showed that they were willing to give the young Russian girls high PCS. This was previously Carolina’s big advantage over them, but with the Olympics being held in Russia, I think we will see a big push for Lipnitskaia or Sotnikova to make the podium.

    Now that Carolina no longer has a huge PCS advantage over the younger girls, I don’t see how she can compete with them, considering her inferior technical content and the fact that she has never been known for skating clean.

    I think the favorites for an Olympic medal are now Kim, Asada, and Lipnitskaia/Sotnikova (with the games being held in Russia.) In order to have a shot at the podium, I believe Carolina will have to skate clean and attempt the 3F-3T in her long program. But even that might not be enough, considering how she skated clean and was still beaten by the two young Russians in the short program at Europeans.

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    Carolina seems to have luck on her side and the fact the odds after a few crappy olympics she is bound to have good one. Somehow even when she has skated pitifully she is held up; she iskind of like Katarina Witt somehow she ends up on top when it really counts. The Russians are young, they lack amplitude on their jumps and will have pressure of being at home the big threats are really Wagner and Gold, Yuna and the Japanese. However, if things are fair and she falters she deserved could fall between all these ladies plus maybe the Canadian lady and the Chinese skater.

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    At this point I think she is more a long shot to medal. Kim, Asada, Suzuki, Lipnitskaya, Sotnikova, and even Gold I think have better chances than her right now. Her scoring potential doesnt hold up as well as it used to, she has had clean performances (in the short) beaten by Russians several times this year, and she is the most inconsistent on top of that.

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    I will be positively surprised if she makes the top 10.

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    Mashimaro on Ice
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    Quote Originally Posted by Skater Boy View Post
    Carolina seems to have luck on her side and the fact the odds after a few crappy olympics she is bound to have good one. Somehow even when she has skated pitifully she is held up; she iskind of like Katarina Witt somehow she ends up on top when it really counts. The Russians are young, they lack amplitude on their jumps and will have pressure of being at home the big threats are really Wagner and Gold, Yuna and the Japanese. However, if things are fair and she falters she deserved could fall between all these ladies plus maybe the Canadian lady and the Chinese skater.
    Except that Witt had much better luck at the Olympics and is um a much better overall competitor?

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    Six Point Zero Krislite's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Skater Boy View Post
    Carolina seems to have luck on her side and the fact the odds after a few crappy olympics she is bound to have good one. [...]
    Ever heard of the gambler's fallacy?

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    Well I would be reather shocked if she ends up out of top ten. I remember the year she did an an Alissa Czisny andmaybe worse and she still scored over 80 in the long.

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    Tripping on the Podium
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    I believe she will be in the top 10, but definitely not on the podium.

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    Will she skate the Team Event for Italy or will it be Valentina Marchei?

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    Carolina still tops Adelina and especially Julia in flow and grace. I don't know how many CoP points that is worth, though.

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    Six Point Zero Krislite's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman View Post
    Carolina still tops Adelina and especially Julia in flow and grace. I don't know how many CoP points that is worth, though.
    According to the judges, roughly 3 points--the gap between their PCS at Euros.

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    🌸🐱❄🐱❄🐱🌸 jennyanydots's Avatar
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    She has been injured so it's hampered her preparations, especially with changing her programs and all. So she was hardly 100% at Europeans. She obviously hasn't had time to adequately work on her spins and there were moments in the SP where she wasn't quite selling it. Did anyone notice she had bandaging or patches stuck on her chest and stomach? She seemed to be content with medalling and getting her programs out there. I think that she can still manage to get in better shape for the Olympics where she can really skate full out.

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    What were her injuries again? I do think she will do better at Olympics and her sophistication and experience will be key but ice is slippery very slippery.

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    If you had asked me two years if I thought the Olympic ladies would have so many podium contenders, I probably would have said no. But I was amazed by the talent we saw at Japan nationals, US nationals, and Euros (I didn't see other national comps) and I think there are many contenders for medals. Looks like Caro really has her work cut out for her; but, she stands out in her basic skating skills and flow, and the shapes she creates and the constant movement that appears effortless that she generates is simply breathtaking to me. And, i love her programs - it's like the icing on the cake. I wish her (and all the ladies) the best of luck! If they all bring it, I might need to be hospitalized!

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    Judges say at very first GP, her components alone is not going to get her gold medal, even a Cup of China gold medal. She had to skate clean, at least clean as possible. Younger girls has better spins, harder jumps and harder programs (transitions) She is still getting very high PCS but her TES in not enough. After 3 years she is still using injured programs of her. Even Wagner trying for 3F+3T, Suzuki is trying seven triple free.

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