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Thread: Carolina Kostnerís chances at the Olympics?

  1. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by elif View Post
    Judges say at very first GP, her components alone is not going to get her gold medal, even a Cup of China gold medal. She had to skate clean, at least clean as possible. Younger girls has better spins, harder jumps and harder programs (transitions) She is still getting very high PCS but her TES in not enough. After 3 years she is still using injured programs of her. Even Wagner trying for 3F+3T, Suzuki is trying seven triple free.
    As do many other ladies whom you may not have heard of doing Triple Lutz+Triple Toe and 7 Triple Free Skate just to get to the Olympics. Carolina's chances are not very good at the moment.

  2. #17
    🌸🐱❄🐱❄🐱🌸 jennyanydots's Avatar
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    Her FS at European's was pretty watered down and she's most likely planning to do more at the Olympics. It's quite possible that she'll go for the 3F-3T like at worlds last season. That would get her back to seven triples although she'd be repeating only the easiest triples. And maybe get a jump series back in and replace the ending 3S she had last year with another 2A. She of all people would know what she needs to do to get on the podium, but the question is will her body and nerves allow it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by wallylutz View Post
    As do many other ladies whom you may not have heard of doing Triple Lutz+Triple Toe and 7 Triple Free Skate just to get to the Olympics. Carolina's chances are not very good at the moment.
    Thank you. Her lutz looks very good. This is very interesting. We have so many skaters who can skate 7 triple program for 2014 Olympics. Even lower ranked skaters like Edmunds or Daleman.

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    Quote Originally Posted by elif View Post
    Thank you. Her lutz looks very good. This is very interesting. We have so many skaters who can skate 7 triple program for 2014 Olympics. Even lower ranked skaters like Edmunds or Daleman.
    Her Triple Lutz+Triple Toe is huge to say the least, far more powerful than say Julia, who barely left the ice when she jumps. And that final Triple Loop just floats in the air and she is only 16. Some of these youngsters are really knocking on the door with their big jumps. She needs to work on her presentation and packaging and gain more world stage experience as the PCS will be low for now. But with these girls competing in the Olympics and the judges will be seeing them doing these big jumps and 3-3, it will be hard for them not to mark down Carolina's PCS because she is starting to look like Katarina Witt at the 1994 Olympics.

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    Olympics is a different playing field. I feel that once Julia is in the same warm up group as say Kim, Asada, Suzuki, Kostner, she willl look weak and juniorish compared to them and will not receive the components she has gotten all season. I mean look at the GPF, Julia received 60 in PCS while Asada received 68.

    So i think Kostner will have a bigger advantage in PCS at olympic than she did at Europeans which can hopefully outweigh her few technical flaws

  6. #21
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    Eh, it seems very unlikely that Carolina will medal. Of course if the favorites all implode and get extra sloppy, then maybe she can sneak in for a bronze. Don't get me wrong...I like Carolina's style of skating. She has superb edges and presents her programs with something approaching personality. However, I'm sort of tired of always having to hope against hope that she'll skate a clean program. I have zero confidence in her abilities when she goes out to skate and have sort of resigned myself to just expecting her to botch at least one jump (in a big, ugly way) and then waiting for a sassy, fun footwork sequence. I used to wish that she wasn't such a head case skater, but it's gotten tiring over the years so now I don't care. She's a lovely skater, but she has always been and always will be sloppy with her jump technique. I wish her the best in Sochi, but frankly I don't think she really deserves to medal. A complete, flawless performance from Carolina would be a fluke and not indicative of her mental and competitive strength.

  7. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by wootie View Post
    Eh, it seems very unlikely that Carolina will medal. Of course if the favorites all implode and get extra sloppy, then maybe she can sneak in for a bronze. Don't get me wrong...I like Carolina's style of skating. She has superb edges and presents her programs with something approaching personality. However, I'm sort of tired of always having to hope against hope that she'll skate a clean program. I have zero confidence in her abilities when she goes out to skate and have sort of resigned myself to just expecting her to botch at least one jump (in a big, ugly way) and then waiting for a sassy, fun footwork sequence. I used to wish that she wasn't such a head case skater, but it's gotten tiring over the years so now I don't care. She's a lovely skater, but she has always been and always will be sloppy with her jump technique. I wish her the best in Sochi, but frankly I don't think she really deserves to medal. A complete, flawless performance from Carolina would be a fluke and not indicative of her mental and competitive strength.
    ITA and I have a weird way of thinking. i don't want a total fluke at the Olympics; I know we want the best skaer on the ice but I just hope this is her one moment She has had her chance int he past and she blew it or was still given a medal anyways.

  8. #23
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    I've had the feeling from the moment that Carolina lost the GPs to other skaters that between her, Yuna, and Mao, she wasn't going to make it on the podium in Sochi. To a much lesser extent, Yuna and especially Mao are vulnerable too should they falter in either of their programs and the Russians skate lights out. Of the Americans, imo, Gracie is the only one with a real shot at the podium. She has much bigger jumps than Ashley, her presentation has improved quite a bit, her SP is even better than her last one and Polina still looks juniorish out there - she's not going to receive the same overly-generous PCS scores that she got at Nationals. Carolina's stock has been falling since the GPs and now losing Euros to Julia and placing behind Adelina I think that the writing is on the wall. She isn't going to beat Yuna nor Mao even if they stumble a little imo and one of Julia or Adelina are going to be on that podium in Sochi. The judges have made that clear over the GP season - and at Euros both girls have now scored over 200 before an international panel of judges, right up there with Mao and Yuna.

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    I really don't get this love for Kostner and her paltry BV. She received PCS at Euros higher than Mao's PB in the FS and TES around 50 which is just utterly insane. I'm glad the Russianse are eclipsing her.

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    Quote Originally Posted by wallylutz View Post
    Her Triple Lutz+Triple Toe is huge to say the least, far more powerful than say Julia, who barely left the ice when she jumps. And that final Triple Loop just floats in the air and she is only 16. Some of these youngsters are really knocking on the door with their big jumps. She needs to work on her presentation and packaging and gain more world stage experience as the PCS will be low for now. But with these girls competing in the Olympics and the judges will be seeing them doing these big jumps and 3-3, it will be hard for them not to mark down Carolina's PCS because she is starting to look like Katarina Witt at the 1994 Olympics.
    I think after the LepistŲ's world medal she just don't want that risk but she needs to do more difficult jumps.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jennyanydots View Post
    Her FS at European's was pretty watered down and she's most likely planning to do more at the Olympics. It's quite possible that she'll go for the 3F-3T like at worlds last season. That would get her back to seven triples although she'd be repeating only the easiest triples. And maybe get a jump series back in and replace the ending 3S she had last year with another 2A. She of all people would know what she needs to do to get on the podium, but the question is will her body and nerves allow it.
    Carolina hasn't attempted the 3F-3T at all this season. She should have gone for it at Europeans if she has the intention of including that jumping pass in her program at the Olympics.

    I just don't see her including the technical content that will be required to make the podium. She could be in the mix after the SP, even with the 3T-3T, but her base value isn't high enough in the FS. Her spins and jumps are really lacking compared to the Russians, who have the homefield advantage.

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    I would love to see Carolina go out with a medal. But she has had to deal with too many injuries and age is catching up with her. Julia is 11 year younger and that is a life time in figure skating.

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    Quote Originally Posted by sk8ingcoach View Post
    Olympics is a different playing field. I feel that once Julia is in the same warm up group as say Kim, Asada, Suzuki, Kostner, she willl look weak and juniorish compared to them and will not receive the components she has gotten all season. I mean look at the GPF, Julia received 60 in PCS while Asada received 68.

    So i think Kostner will have a bigger advantage in PCS at olympic than she did at Europeans which can hopefully outweigh her few technical flaws
    I completely agree with you! Europeans and 4CC scores always tend to be inflated. In addition, PCS is always based on relativity, so I feel Julia will receive lower PCS at Sochi due to the much stronger group. Probably higher than the 60 she received at GPF but lower than the 68 at Euros (Around a 65?).

  14. #29
    Size 7 Knife Boots Sam-Skwantch's Avatar
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    I certainly hope if my favorite gets knocked off the podium it will be by Carolina. I just dont see how anyone could root against her. She is pure class. I don't however think she can finish higher than 4th or 5th. Good luck to her and her fans.

  15. #30
    she takes the audience on her journey of emotions Layfan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman View Post
    Carolina still tops Adelina and especially Julia in flow and grace. I don't know how many CoP points that is worth, though.
    Without a doubt. When you watch her skate after the rest, you think, now THERE's a skater. And then she makes a mistake... but anyway. Her programs are gorgeous, especially Bolero which is so special and really. What other lady skater could skate to that music?? If she is clean, it's very hard to say what will happen. She's a former world champion, so there's that. My feeling is that if she were to nail it and the other younger skaters falter even a little, the judges will pounce - to put Caro on the podium. But, it's Caro. So I just hope for an enjoyable skate from her. And anyway, she's a world champion forever. Thank goodness.

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