Carolina Kostner’s chances at the Olympics? | Golden Skate

Carolina Kostner’s chances at the Olympics?

Selene

On the Ice
Joined
Feb 7, 2012
After Worlds last season, it looked as if Yuna Kim, Mao Asada and Carolina Kostner were the three favorites for the Olympic podium. However, I believe Carolina has lost a lot of ground/momentum this season, and at this point, I would be surprised to see her make the Olympic podium.

She delivered a clean short program at Europeans and was still beaten by two Russian girls, one of whom (Sotnikova) had basically the same jump content as her. And in the free program, she does not have the technical content to compete with young girls like Lipnitskaia, Sotnikova, Gold, etc. Her spins and jump difficulty are lagging behind many of her competitors.

At Europeans, the judges showed that they were willing to give the young Russian girls high PCS. This was previously Carolina’s big advantage over them, but with the Olympics being held in Russia, I think we will see a big push for Lipnitskaia or Sotnikova to make the podium.

Now that Carolina no longer has a huge PCS advantage over the younger girls, I don’t see how she can compete with them, considering her inferior technical content and the fact that she has never been known for skating clean.

I think the favorites for an Olympic medal are now Kim, Asada, and Lipnitskaia/Sotnikova (with the games being held in Russia.) In order to have a shot at the podium, I believe Carolina will have to skate clean and attempt the 3F-3T in her long program. But even that might not be enough, considering how she skated clean and was still beaten by the two young Russians in the short program at Europeans.
 

Skater Boy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 24, 2012
Carolina seems to have luck on her side and the fact the odds after a few crappy olympics she is bound to have good one. Somehow even when she has skated pitifully she is held up; she iskind of like Katarina Witt somehow she ends up on top when it really counts. The Russians are young, they lack amplitude on their jumps and will have pressure of being at home the big threats are really Wagner and Gold, Yuna and the Japanese. However, if things are fair and she falters she deserved could fall between all these ladies plus maybe the Canadian lady and the Chinese skater.
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
At this point I think she is more a long shot to medal. Kim, Asada, Suzuki, Lipnitskaya, Sotnikova, and even Gold I think have better chances than her right now. Her scoring potential doesnt hold up as well as it used to, she has had clean performances (in the short) beaten by Russians several times this year, and she is the most inconsistent on top of that.
 

miki88

Medalist
Joined
Dec 28, 2009
Carolina seems to have luck on her side and the fact the odds after a few crappy olympics she is bound to have good one. Somehow even when she has skated pitifully she is held up; she iskind of like Katarina Witt somehow she ends up on top when it really counts. The Russians are young, they lack amplitude on their jumps and will have pressure of being at home the big threats are really Wagner and Gold, Yuna and the Japanese. However, if things are fair and she falters she deserved could fall between all these ladies plus maybe the Canadian lady and the Chinese skater.

:confused: Except that Witt had much better luck at the Olympics and is um a much better overall competitor?
 

Skater Boy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 24, 2012
Well I would be reather shocked if she ends up out of top ten. I remember the year she did an an Alissa Czisny andmaybe worse and she still scored over 80 in the long.
 
Joined
Jun 21, 2003
Carolina still tops Adelina and especially Julia in flow and grace. I don't know how many CoP points that is worth, though.
 

jennyanydots

On the Ice
Joined
Jul 1, 2013
She has been injured so it's hampered her preparations, especially with changing her programs and all. So she was hardly 100% at Europeans. She obviously hasn't had time to adequately work on her spins and there were moments in the SP where she wasn't quite selling it. Did anyone notice she had bandaging or patches stuck on her chest and stomach? She seemed to be content with medalling and getting her programs out there. I think that she can still manage to get in better shape for the Olympics where she can really skate full out.
 

Skater Boy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 24, 2012
What were her injuries again? I do think she will do better at Olympics and her sophistication and experience will be key but ice is slippery very slippery.
 

emma

Record Breaker
Joined
Oct 28, 2004
If you had asked me two years if I thought the Olympic ladies would have so many podium contenders, I probably would have said no. But I was amazed by the talent we saw at Japan nationals, US nationals, and Euros (I didn't see other national comps) and I think there are many contenders for medals. Looks like Caro really has her work cut out for her; but, she stands out in her basic skating skills and flow, and the shapes she creates and the constant movement that appears effortless that she generates is simply breathtaking to me. And, i love her programs - it's like the icing on the cake. I wish her (and all the ladies) the best of luck! If they all bring it, I might need to be hospitalized!
 

elif

Medalist
Joined
Jan 28, 2010
Judges say at very first GP, her components alone is not going to get her gold medal, even a Cup of China gold medal. She had to skate clean, at least clean as possible. Younger girls has better spins, harder jumps and harder programs (transitions) She is still getting very high PCS but her TES in not enough. After 3 years she is still using injured programs of her. Even Wagner trying for 3F+3T, Suzuki is trying seven triple free.
 

wallylutz

Medalist
Joined
Mar 23, 2010
Judges say at very first GP, her components alone is not going to get her gold medal, even a Cup of China gold medal. She had to skate clean, at least clean as possible. Younger girls has better spins, harder jumps and harder programs (transitions) She is still getting very high PCS but her TES in not enough. After 3 years she is still using injured programs of her. Even Wagner trying for 3F+3T, Suzuki is trying seven triple free.

As do many other ladies whom you may not have heard of doing Triple Lutz+Triple Toe and 7 Triple Free Skate just to get to the Olympics. Carolina's chances are not very good at the moment.
 

jennyanydots

On the Ice
Joined
Jul 1, 2013
Her FS at European's was pretty watered down and she's most likely planning to do more at the Olympics. It's quite possible that she'll go for the 3F-3T like at worlds last season. That would get her back to seven triples although she'd be repeating only the easiest triples. And maybe get a jump series back in and replace the ending 3S she had last year with another 2A. She of all people would know what she needs to do to get on the podium, but the question is will her body and nerves allow it.
 

elif

Medalist
Joined
Jan 28, 2010
As do many other ladies whom you may not have heard of doing Triple Lutz+Triple Toe and 7 Triple Free Skate just to get to the Olympics. Carolina's chances are not very good at the moment.

Thank you. Her lutz looks very good. This is very interesting. We have so many skaters who can skate 7 triple program for 2014 Olympics. Even lower ranked skaters like Edmunds or Daleman.
 

wallylutz

Medalist
Joined
Mar 23, 2010
Thank you. Her lutz looks very good. This is very interesting. We have so many skaters who can skate 7 triple program for 2014 Olympics. Even lower ranked skaters like Edmunds or Daleman.

Her Triple Lutz+Triple Toe is huge to say the least, far more powerful than say Julia, who barely left the ice when she jumps. And that final Triple Loop just floats in the air and she is only 16. Some of these youngsters are really knocking on the door with their big jumps. She needs to work on her presentation and packaging and gain more world stage experience as the PCS will be low for now. But with these girls competing in the Olympics and the judges will be seeing them doing these big jumps and 3-3, it will be hard for them not to mark down Carolina's PCS because she is starting to look like Katarina Witt at the 1994 Olympics.
 

sk8ingcoach

On the Ice
Joined
Nov 25, 2012
Olympics is a different playing field. I feel that once Julia is in the same warm up group as say Kim, Asada, Suzuki, Kostner, she willl look weak and juniorish compared to them and will not receive the components she has gotten all season. I mean look at the GPF, Julia received 60 in PCS while Asada received 68.

So i think Kostner will have a bigger advantage in PCS at olympic than she did at Europeans which can hopefully outweigh her few technical flaws
 
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