Score ceiling for Julia and Adelina in Sochi

drivingmissdaisy · Jan 20, 2014

Besides Yuna and Mao, the Russians are the only other women competing in Sochi who have surpassed a total score of 200. Adelina achieved this despite doing only 4 clean triples in her LP, and Julia having multiple "e" calls on her lutz jumps. If they manage to go clean, how high can they score, given that they will have home crowd support?

I can see Julia and Adelina hitting 73 - 75 at home in the SP if they hit their jumps clean and get full levels on their spins and footwork. In the LP, I don't think they could get up to 150 (Yuna's peak potential) but they both plan one more triple than Yuna and score better on the spins, so I think mid-140s is possible if they hit everything perfectly. The fact that Julia and Adelina scored so closely to Carolina on PCS makes me think Yuna isn't going to have a huge advantage against the Russians at home, maybe 2 points in the short and 3-4 in the long.

Krislite · Jan 20, 2014

73 in the SP and about 140 in the free--if they're perfect. That only leaves room for realistically one other skater to win. Theoretically Kostner and Asada have higher ceilings but they've never come close to it in real life. They'll need plenty of luck to get past Lipnitskaia.

CanadianSkaterGuy · Jan 20, 2014

I'd say Lipnitskaia can clear 140 if she replicates her Euros performance. Certainly if they disregard her flutzes. Would probably be given 70+ points PCS for it.

If Sotnikova maxed out her elements she could get close to 140, above 140 if she happened to land the 3Z-3L.

Jammers · Jan 20, 2014

The over scoring of the Russian girls is disgraceful and i can only imagine how bad it will be in Sochi.

Krislite · Jan 20, 2014

Jammers said:
The over scoring of the Russian girls is disgraceful and i can only imagine how bad it will be in Sochi.

This bad: Lipnitskaia, Sotnikova and Kim in some order for the podium. Leonova would be there too had they won a third spot. :laugh:

In all seriousness, I'm hoping Kostner and Asada step up and close the door on them, but the chances are looking dim.

Skater Boy · Jan 20, 2014

Overscoring, underscoring it seems that both girls could get as high as the low 140's in the free. I can't compare them to Carolina because she has been injured and changing her programs. I think they are the same as Gracie and Wagner.

elif · Jan 20, 2014

drivingmissdaisy said:
I can see Julia and Adelina hitting 73 - 75 at home in the SP if they hit their jumps clean and get full levels on their spins and footwork. In the LP, I don't think they could get up to 150 (Yuna's peak potential) but they both plan one more triple than Yuna and score better on the spins, so I think mid-140s is possible if they hit everything perfectly. The fact that Julia and Adelina scored so closely to Carolina on PCS makes me think Yuna isn't going to have a huge advantage against the Russians at home, maybe 2 points in the short and 3-4 in the long.

This is almost impossible If Yuna skates clean. She can get 75 TES with six triple. Julia with seven triple and without flutz could get 72 at max. Her scores at Europeans looks higher because she had to move her combination second half. There will be a PCS gap too.

RABID · Jan 20, 2014

Krislite said:
This bad: Lipnitskaia, Sotnikova and Kim in some order for the podium. Leonova would be there too had they won a third spot.

In all seriousness, I'm hoping Kostner and Asada step up and close the door on them, but the chances are looking dim.

I just finished watching Mao's short again and I have already seen YuNa's. I see no reason Mao and YuNa can't skate these programs to levels that at the very least will leave Adelina quaking in her skates and Julia feeling her young age.

miki88 · Jan 20, 2014

Krislite said:
73 in the SP and about 140 in the free--if they're perfect. That only leaves room for realistically one other skater to win. Theoretically Kostner and Asada have higher ceilings but they've never come close to it in real life. They'll need plenty of luck to get past Lipnitskaia.

Mao already got 73 in the SP this season, and without being entirely perfect. She was like one triple away from hitting 140 in the LP at NHK. I agree that Julia has consistency on her side, but I don't think it's unrealistic for Mao to do better in her LP. She doesn't even need to be perfect to reach 140. Kostner will need to increase her difficulty, but if she does by Sochi, 140 is reachable and she doesn't need to be perfect either.

sky_fly20 · Jan 20, 2014

Mao can score a 140+ if she lands her 3AXels clean
also Carolina of course, but he has lowered her technical content because of her recent injury

Gracie also can score 150+
the only skater that can surpass Yuna in the LP
Max ceiling for Julia and Adelina also in 140s

jenaj · Jan 20, 2014

Krislite said:
This bad: Lipnitskaia, Sotnikova and Kim in some order for the podium. Leonova would be there too had they won a third spot.

In all seriousness, I'm hoping Kostner and Asada step up and close the door on them, but the chances are looking dim.

Lipnitskaya, yes. I don't think Sonitkova is a podium contender. She makes a lot of mistakes, which will hurt her more with the world watching at the Olympics. Where did she finish at World's last year? it wasn't high enough to get three spots for the Russians.

aftertherain · Jan 20, 2014

RABID said:
I just finished watching Mao's short again and I have already seen YuNa's. I see no reason Mao and YuNa can't skate these programs to levels that at the very least will leave Adelina quaking in her skates and Julia feeling her young age.

Definitely. But it seems that this year, high PCS hasn't been very difficult to get on the international stage (and certainly not on the National stage either). So, IMO, if either of the Russian ladies go clean--or even near clean--you can sure as hell bet that their scores would go through the roof.

jenaj · Jan 20, 2014

sky_fly20 said:
Mao can score a 140+ if she lands her 3AXels clean
also Carolina of course, but he has lowered her technical content because of her recent injury

Gracie also can score 150+
the only skater that can surpass Yuna in the LP
Max ceiling for Julia and Adelina also in 140s

Gracie will be lucky to get 130. She has had one good competition and her score reflected Nationals inflation.

sky_fly20 · Jan 20, 2014

jenaj said:
Gracie will be lucky to get 130. She has had one good competition and her score reflected Nationals inflation.

I think Gracie's advanatge will be her GOE she makes on her jumps
she can also get better PCS and she is physically attractive almost hollywood beauty like

US has also been headlining and propping Gracie in the media as a Gold medal contender in ladies

elif · Jan 20, 2014

sky_fly20 said:
Gracie also can score 150+
the only skater that can surpass Yuna in the LP

Gracie's PCS is not that high. But everything can happen If one of the last group of skaters can do a clean program with good jumps and spins. Gracie's jumps,spins are very good. She can overtake Yu-Na's TES but PCS?

drivingmissdaisy · Jan 20, 2014

My worry for Yuna is if she skates very early in the SP her PCS marks will suffer like they did at last year's worlds. With 12 top contenders to skate the judges will leave room, even though Yuna is the best.

jenaj · Jan 20, 2014

sky_fly20 said:
I think Gracie's advanatge will be her GOE she makes on her jumps
she can also get better PCS and she is physically attractive almost hollywood beauty like

US has also been headlining and propping Gracie in the media as a Gold medal contender in ladies

All of this is a big "if." Gracie hasn't shown any degree of consistency in competition. If she skates like she did at Nationals, she has a shot at bronze. I don't think her looks or PR are going to help her.

RABID · Jan 20, 2014

sky_fly20 said:
Mao can score a 140+ if she lands her 3AXels clean
also Carolina of course, but he has lowered her technical content because of her recent injury

Gracie also can score 150+
the only skater that can surpass Yuna in the LP
Max ceiling for Julia and Adelina also in 140s

You're like a magician; you keep amazing me with what you pull out of your hat. :laugh:

Krislite · Jan 20, 2014

RABID said:
You're like a magician; you keep amazing me with what you pull out of your hat.

That figure was surprisingly conservative coming from sky_fly20. :laugh:

FSGMT · Jan 20, 2014

I seriously think (and I hate this thought) that Julia could come close to 150 in Sochi if she skates clean... Just look at her CoR scores :disapp: They won't give her the "e" for the lutz I think, then add to that some GOE bonus in the other jumps and the level 4 (and consequently a higher GOE) for the StSq and the 71.75 she obtained at Euros could become a 76-77, with PCS around 70 that's 150... With a clean SP maybe 220+

Score ceiling for Julia and Adelina in Sochi

drivingmissdaisy

Krislite

CanadianSkaterGuy

Jammers

Krislite

Skater Boy

elif

RABID

miki88

sky_fly20

Match Penalty

jenaj

aftertherain

jenaj

sky_fly20

Match Penalty

elif

drivingmissdaisy

jenaj

RABID

Krislite

FSGMT

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