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Thread: Score ceiling for Julia and Adelina in Sochi

  1. #31
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    After what happened at SLC, if cleanish Yuna loses to cleanish Russian girls, CoP will probably be gone next year.

    (no, won't mean return to 6.0 either -- we might get some really bizarre scoring system)

  2. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by sky_fly20 View Post
    didn't you forgot Gracie got higher PCS than even to Julia at Skate Canada, also last year Gracie got higher PCS at Worlds
    if she is clean realistically her jump Layout with her GOE she racks can catch up with Yuna's
    in figure skating looks and physical body type is also important, Gracie too has the upper hand to that
    And did you forget that at Cup of Russia & Euros 2014, Lipnitskaia got higher PCS (32.61 & 68.00) than Gracie's personal best PCS from Skate Canada (30.92 & 62.11)?

    Actually, it's not even worth pointing out to you sensibly why Yu Na will score way higher and Lip/Sot will score higher PCS than Gracie and why Gracie won't score 150+ in her FS. If anything, it makes it more hilarious when your bubble gets burst in Sochi and then you inevitably whine that Gold didn't receive higher scores than Kim/Lip/Sot.

  3. #33
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    Gracie scored 'only' an inflated 139 and change at Nationals for her FS. She'd NEVER get that in an ISU event for her Nationals FS, never mind 150.

  4. #34
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    ^ And even with the flip, she'd get just above 140 (let's say 142 points, given that it still had an edge call and wasn't going to get +2's).

    For her FS to have gotten 150 points, she would have needed 8 points higher PCS. She received 68.30 points PCS... which means, she would needed about 76 points of PCS to clear 150 points -- and that's at her own nationals. Her current, non Nationals, personal best is 62 points PCS in the FS.

    Essentially you're saying that if Gracie skates cleanly in Sochi, she will somehow get 14 points higher PCS than her current personal best. In a Russian competition where she's a threat to deny two Russian skaters a medal.

    But please, sky_fly, keep trying. It's rather amusing.

  5. #35
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    At Nationals, Gracie got all mid-8s PCS scores for that 139. She'd need mid-9s to hit 150 and pigs will fly in formation above the floor of a frozen hell before that will happen.

  6. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by chuckm View Post
    At Nationals, Gracie got all mid-8s PCS scores for that 139. She'd need mid-9s to hit 150 and pigs will fly in formation above the floor of a frozen hell before that will happen.
    Oh, but haven't you heard? Gracie's pretty and has a classic Hollywood look, so that will automatically grant her 9.50's across the board.

  7. #37
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    Both Russian girls PCS scores are ridiculous.

  8. #38
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    At best, Gracie has a shot at the bronze and it will take mistakes from several other skaters. I even think Adelina's chances aren't that strong. She isn't that consistent.

  9. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ven View Post
    After what happened at SLC, if cleanish Yuna loses to cleanish Russian girls, CoP will probably be gone next year.
    This cannot happen because they won't beat her on PCS or GOE on the 7 jumping passes. I think they will get close to her on PCS though if they marked the Russians so close to Carolina on neutral territory in Budapest. Yuna making a big mistake in the LP could open the door.

  10. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by RABID View Post
    I just finished watching Mao's short again and I have already seen YuNa's. I see no reason Mao and YuNa can't skate these programs to levels that at the very least will leave Adelina quaking in her skates and Julia feeling her young age.
    Lol, I did the exact same thing today and had the exact same reaction.

  11. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy View Post
    Besides Yuna and Mao, the Russians are the only other women competing in Sochi who have surpassed a total score of 200. Adelina achieved this despite doing only 4 clean triples in her LP, and Julia having multiple "e" calls on her lutz jumps. If they manage to go clean, how high can they score, given that they will have home crowd support?

    I can see Julia and Adelina hitting 73 - 75 at home in the SP if they hit their jumps clean and get full levels on their spins and footwork. In the LP, I don't think they could get up to 150 (Yuna's peak potential) but they both plan one more triple than Yuna and score better on the spins, so I think mid-140s is possible if they hit everything perfectly. The fact that Julia and Adelina scored so closely to Carolina on PCS makes me think Yuna isn't going to have a huge advantage against the Russians at home, maybe 2 points in the short and 3-4 in the long.
    Your scores are far too generous. I would be willing to bet thousands of dollars neither would score that high even with a perfect competition. Julia at her own Nationals skating cleanly could only reach 140, and Europeans where the scores are always higher for the European skaters and which was scored like a glorified Russian Nationals (which will be harder to do at the Games with all the World watching) wasnt even that. I see the scoring cap for both being 72 in the short. Sotnikova with only a triple toe-triple toe in the short isnt going to score that high, and your projected score is as high or higher than her clean short at her own Nationals and several points higher than her clean short at Europeans. You are thinking both could score higher for clean programs at the OLYMPICS than what they could manage (Julia in the LP, Sotnikova in the SP) at their own Nationals for perfect skates. Sorry but no. For the long I see Julias being 140 if I am being generous (I really think it would be lower) and Sotnikova around 140 or maybe a bit higher too.

  12. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy View Post
    My worry for Yuna is if she skates very early in the SP her PCS marks will suffer like they did at last year's worlds. With 12 top contenders to skate the judges will leave room, even though Yuna is the best.
    If Yu Na does a clean short she will score atleast 76 in the short (and the Russians no higher than 72 something). Guaranteed. Her short at last years Worlds wasnt clean, she messed up a spin and had a lip call, and the program itself sucked anyway. Plus she wasnt established as the top dog anymore, which now she clearly is again. Mao will still have the potential to get a similar or even higher score if she skates a perfect short with the 3 axel, but nobody else.

  13. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by chuckm View Post
    The question is whether clean YuNa can beat clean Russian girls' scores.
    ROTFL this is almost as crazy as the poster who said clean Gold can get 150+.

  14. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    If Yu Na does a clean short she will score atleast 76 in the short (and the Russians no higher than 72 something). Guaranteed. Her short at last years Worlds wasnt clean, she messed up a spin and had a lip call, and the program itself sucked anyway. Plus she wasnt established as the top dog anymore, which now she clearly is again. Mao will still have the potential to get a similar or even higher score if she skates a perfect short with the 3 axel, but nobody else.
    Agreed. The judges won't make the mistake of holding Yuna down again, especially when she proved that she can and will still dominate the rest of the competition without their help. And if they do, it'll be more than an issue of her skating in one of the first groups ... people will begin to suspect political motives that involve giving the home team a little nudge in the right direction.

  15. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    ROTFL this is almost as crazy as the poster who said clean Gold can get 150+.
    I might be the biggest Gracie fan on this forum (hold your fire -- I said MIGHT ) and ... that's just ridiculous.

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