Who are your top 10 Ladies?

The ladies field is so strong right now, it's almost impossible to predict what will happen. But I'm going to go out on a limb and make some guesses.

1--Michelle Kwan. She was so brilliant at Nationals and has been training really hard. I expect her to skate well. And considering the depth of the field, she'll *need* to skate very well to win.

2--Elena Sokolova. If she skates anything like she did at Europeans, her triple/triples will propel her onto the podium. And she could very possibly win if Michelle doesn't skate well. Although I agree her artistry needs much improvement.

3--Fumie Suguri. After winning GP Final, she would seem a solid bet for third. But, she also lost Japanese nationals. If she skates well, she could get the bronze or silver; if not, could drop out of top five entirely.

4--Miki Ando. I think she could make a big splash if her jumps are there. But she could just as easily come in tenth or lower. A wild card.

5--Sasha Cohen. This is my "out-on-a-limb" comment, but here goes: In my heart, I think Sasha lost her best chance to grab the brass ring at Nationals this year. That LP performance was a disaster for her. I don't think her problems can be solved by any coach. As brilliant and lovely as she is, my instinct is that she will never win the big one. (Of course now, having said that, Sasha will probably go out, kick butt at Worlds, and prove me *completely* wrong!! And if she does, good for her.)

6--Shizuka Arakawa. I'm not as much of a fan as a lot of people seem to be. She has yet to actually win anything, so I don't see a podium finish for her at Worlds, unless everyone else collapses. She could well surprise and get up to third or fourth, though.

7--Jenny Kirk. I'm hoping she'll skate well, but agree she still lacks that killer presence and instinct. She's learned how to connect with the audience--now she must learn how to blow them away.

8--Julia Sebestyen. Great skater and has political momentum from Europeans. But her winning skate there was not particularly memorable.

9--Elena Liashenko. Solid performer, but not a medal contender.

10--Irina Slutskaya. I don't expect much out of Irina, considering she's been off ice all season. But past success and political clout should keep her in the top ten.

Kwan
Cohen
Suguri
Arakawa
Sokolova
Slutskaya
Ando
Sebasteyn
Liashenko
Kostner


The usual practice is to put skaters in qualiying rounds by whether their finish at last year's world's was an even or an odd number. Competitors like Kirk, Ando, and Slutskaya who did not skate last year will be placed in qualifying rounds by the isu by some method known only to them. So based on last years' results:

Qual A
Kwan
Suguri
Volchkova
Liashenko
Robinson
Lautowa
Rochette

Qual B
Sokolova
Cohen
Arakawa
Kostner
Drei
Sebasteyn
Maniachenko

A lot will be determined, like last year, by the brackets in the QR that each skater is put in.

Kwan will be in the round with Suguri. Advantage Kwan. On the other hand, Sasha will be in the round with Sokolova and Arakawa. Sasha might be able to squeak that one out, as Sokolova's most glaring weaknesses are Cohen's strengths.
However, as was seen in the GP series, Arakawa has it in her to be Sasha's nemesis. Still barring dreadful skating by Kwan or Cohen, it would be no surprise to see them both come out of the Qual rounds in first place. A lot also depends on which bracket gets Ando and Kirk, and which gets Slutskaya, who will be graded high however she skates (as happened with Hughes last year). Unfortunatetly, reputation matters in the qualifying rounds.
I don't know whether it is Drei or Poykio representing Finland this year. Either has as shot at top 10, especially Poykio, but
Jenny is my first alternate for this top 10 list.

I have Ando in the top ten for sure because she has won every competition she has entered this year, including Japanese nationals. She is a very consistent skater. On the down side, it's her first year, and the top contenders have to skate very badly for a new skater to win (Oksana over Nancy in 1993, for example).

The GPF standings also have an effect, and Arikawa was 3rd in the GPF. Expect her in the top ten.

Kostner has been inconsistent this year, and I think it will be hard for her to pull out all 3 good performances needed to win world's. However she should be able to manage 2 out of 3.

Liashenko will skate well. However this is the 6.0 system, not COP, so she will be hampered by not having a triple loop in her LP, which is what is skated for the QR.

Fumie finds it very hard to land more than 5 triples, and I am not sure if she ever has, kicka footwork and speed or not. She will find it hard to pass Kwan in bracket A.

Sebasteyn was 6th in the GPF and has just won Euro's against Liashenko. She is not always consistent, but could definitely hit the top six.

There is no way that Slutskaya will finish out of the top ten, just as last year, there was no way Sarah would finish out of the top ten.

dpp