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Thread: Current Sochi Odds

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  1. #1
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    Current Sochi Odds

    Ladies

    Yuna Kim 8/11 ... heavy favorite would be understatement

    Mao Asada 3/1 ... if 2014 Sochi Olympics were played over and over again, Yuna beats Mao slightly more than 80% of the time

    Julia Lipnitskaia 8/1
    Carolina Kostner 8/1 ... Yuna beats Julia and Carolina 92% of the time, Mao beats them 73% of the time

    Kanako Murikami 12/1

    Adelina Sotnikova 18/1
    Ashley Wagner 18/1

    Polina Edmunds 33/1

    Akiko Suzuki 50/1

    Li Zijun 66/1

    Gracie Gold 100/1

    As a professional gambler I would say that Akiko's and Gracie's odds should be much better, there's value there compared to Carolina and Polina, who seem to be getting more wagers than deserved.

    Men

    Patrick Chan 1/2 ... heavy heavy favorite

    Yuzuru Hanyu 2/1 ... only man with a chance to beat him

    Patrick wins Gold 80% of time, Hanyu with 20% chance

    Denis Ten 13/1
    Daisuke Takahashi 13/1 ... Patrick beats them 96.3% of the time

    Javier Fernandez 20/1

    Jason Brown 50/1

    Kevin Reynolds 66/1
    Brian Joubert 66/1

    Tatsuki Machida 100/1

  2. #2
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    Ice Dance

    Davis and White 4/6
    Virtue and Moir 6/5

    Davis/White win ~65% of the time


    Pairs

    V/T @ 4/7
    S/S @ 7/4

    About 75% favorite for V / T

  3. #3
    Long live the Queen! YunaBliss's Avatar
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    Interesting. What is the source?

    Does this mean that PChan is the overall favorite for OGM? (i.e. you only get 50 cents for every dollar you bet, whereas for D/W, you get 4/6 out of a dollar, and for Yuna, you get 8/11 out of a dollar)

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    Yes Patrick is the overall favorite. The odds I quoted are from PaddyPower. I looked on Ladbroke's too and they were only slightly different. Pinnacle another source didn't have complete odds listed so I ignored them and others.

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    I see Plushenko @ 25/1 now, Kovtun 33/1

    I assume Plushenko will be chosen however.

  6. #6
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    It's called the overround. Bettors in general overpay for their wagers...a team or competitor's true win % might be 65% and the bookmaker will charge @ 66% or 75% or whatever they can get from the market, and they collect the overround as profit. On the other hand, if the bookmaker charges too much then nobody will place a wager. It works just like a stock market .... there is a bid/ask spread between the bookmaker and potential bettors. Just like in stock transactions, the bettor has to eat the marginal bid/ask spread if they are eager enough to place a wager. The bookmaker has to eat the spread if they are more eager to balance their books. A market gets made.

    The bookmaker's goal is to make as much money as possible, so this involves a combination of odds being over 100% and getting the highest volume of wagers. If the odds offered add up to 110% compared to true odds of 100%, the bookmaker collects the extra 10% as profit.

    ETA: I'm not a bookie and I don't sports bet, so this is pretty close if not 100% correct explanation.

    However I do think Carolina, Kanako, and Polina's odds are way too high, while Akiko's and Gracie's are way too low.

    It's also possible the market is illiquid, figure skating isn't exactly a big gambling sport and the Olympics are still weeks away.

  7. #7
    Tripping on the Podium
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    The overall probability for ladies is 130.7%...

    what is the source? or how did u do the calculation?

  8. #8
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    Odds according to PaddyPower Irish bookmaker.

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by hybfc View Post
    The overall probability for ladies is 130.7%...
    That's because they want to make a profit.

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    Jason Brown 16/1

    Seems like with the moves on Gracie and Jason in recent days, American $$'s finally starting to get interested.

  11. #11
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    I recall in Vancouver Kim's was at around 1/2, with Asada's and Rochette's both at around 8/1-9/1. So it seems slightly less favorable of Kim and a bit better for Asada this time around.

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by thinspread View Post
    I recall in Vancouver Kim's was at around 1/2, with Asada's and Rochette's both at around 8/1-9/1. So it seems slightly less favorable of Kim and a bit better for Asada this time around.
    So, I thought I would provide links to betting data, as well as make the information easier to understand, especially for the, um, quantitatively challenged .

    Here's a link for a summary of the betting odds provided by a range of bookmakers: http://www.oddschecker.com/winter-ol...g-women/winner

    For the analysis below, I used PaddyPower's betting odds, as they are one of the largest bookmakers, and they provide the most comprehensive oddsmaking for ladies figure skating.

    The betting implied probabilities (calculated as "Wager/(Payout + Wager)") for winning gold in 2014 in Sochi:

    Yuna 58%
    Mao 25%
    Caro 11%
    Julia 11%
    Gracie 4%

    These are somewhat higher than the true mathematical probabilities, as the bookmakers build in a 30% spread for themselves. But the relative positions are similar.

    The "true" implied probabilities (Betting Implied Probability/1.30) for winning in Sochi 2014 are:

    Yuna 45%
    Mao 19%
    Caro 8%
    Julia 8%
    Gracie 3%

    ----------------------------------------------------------------------


    By way of comparison, the odds in Vancouver for Yuna were 1/2, and for Mao were 11/2 (http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/olym...-favorite.html).

    The betting implied probabilities for winning gold in 2010 in Vancouver:

    Yuna 67%
    Mao 15%

    The "true" implied probabilities for gold in Vancouver 2010 were:

    Yuna 51%
    Mao 11%

    ----------------------------------------------------------------------

    Conclusions:

    -According to this particular measure of "the Wisdom of Crowds", Yuna is a bit less of an overwhelming favorite for Sochi than she was for Vancouver at 45% vs. 51%, but that is at the margins. In the larger scheme of things, she is still clearly the overwhelming favorite.

    -Mao is still the leading challenger to Yuna by quite a ways. Her betting probability has even incrementally improved since Vancouver.

    -Caro and Julia are tied in the third spot, but measurably behind Mao.

    -Interestingly, Gracie is not a favorite among bettors.


    On to Sochi, where the box is finally opened, the probability waves collapse to reveal a singular reality, and we get to see whether the cat is alive and well.

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