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Thread: Current Sochi Odds

  1. #1
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    Current Sochi Odds

    Ladies

    Yuna Kim 8/11 ... heavy favorite would be understatement

    Mao Asada 3/1 ... if 2014 Sochi Olympics were played over and over again, Yuna beats Mao slightly more than 80% of the time

    Julia Lipnitskaia 8/1
    Carolina Kostner 8/1 ... Yuna beats Julia and Carolina 92% of the time, Mao beats them 73% of the time

    Kanako Murikami 12/1

    Adelina Sotnikova 18/1
    Ashley Wagner 18/1

    Polina Edmunds 33/1

    Akiko Suzuki 50/1

    Li Zijun 66/1

    Gracie Gold 100/1

    As a professional gambler I would say that Akiko's and Gracie's odds should be much better, there's value there compared to Carolina and Polina, who seem to be getting more wagers than deserved.

    Men

    Patrick Chan 1/2 ... heavy heavy favorite

    Yuzuru Hanyu 2/1 ... only man with a chance to beat him

    Patrick wins Gold 80% of time, Hanyu with 20% chance

    Denis Ten 13/1
    Daisuke Takahashi 13/1 ... Patrick beats them 96.3% of the time

    Javier Fernandez 20/1

    Jason Brown 50/1

    Kevin Reynolds 66/1
    Brian Joubert 66/1

    Tatsuki Machida 100/1

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    Ice Dance

    Davis and White 4/6
    Virtue and Moir 6/5

    Davis/White win ~65% of the time


    Pairs

    V/T @ 4/7
    S/S @ 7/4

    About 75% favorite for V / T

  3. #3
    Long live the Queen! YunaBliss's Avatar
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    Interesting. What is the source?

    Does this mean that PChan is the overall favorite for OGM? (i.e. you only get 50 cents for every dollar you bet, whereas for D/W, you get 4/6 out of a dollar, and for Yuna, you get 8/11 out of a dollar)

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    Yes Patrick is the overall favorite. The odds I quoted are from PaddyPower. I looked on Ladbroke's too and they were only slightly different. Pinnacle another source didn't have complete odds listed so I ignored them and others.

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    I see Plushenko @ 25/1 now, Kovtun 33/1

    I assume Plushenko will be chosen however.

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    It's called the overround. Bettors in general overpay for their wagers...a team or competitor's true win % might be 65% and the bookmaker will charge @ 66% or 75% or whatever they can get from the market, and they collect the overround as profit. On the other hand, if the bookmaker charges too much then nobody will place a wager. It works just like a stock market .... there is a bid/ask spread between the bookmaker and potential bettors. Just like in stock transactions, the bettor has to eat the marginal bid/ask spread if they are eager enough to place a wager. The bookmaker has to eat the spread if they are more eager to balance their books. A market gets made.

    The bookmaker's goal is to make as much money as possible, so this involves a combination of odds being over 100% and getting the highest volume of wagers. If the odds offered add up to 110% compared to true odds of 100%, the bookmaker collects the extra 10% as profit.

    ETA: I'm not a bookie and I don't sports bet, so this is pretty close if not 100% correct explanation.

    However I do think Carolina, Kanako, and Polina's odds are way too high, while Akiko's and Gracie's are way too low.

    It's also possible the market is illiquid, figure skating isn't exactly a big gambling sport and the Olympics are still weeks away.

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    Wow. Polina ahead of Akiko and Gracie. Good luck with that.

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    Akiko now 25/1

    I said her odds were too low, now I'm kind of upset, I was going to wager on her and hedge with bets on Yuna and Mao. I never sports-betted before, I guess that tradition might continue.

  9. #9
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    LOL. Let me go back and quote my previous post:

    Quote Originally Posted by CarneAsada View Post
    Odds of winning gold, my take pre-US Nats, pre-KNats, pre-Euros:

    Kim 1:999382 (no black marks against her like Asada's Nats FS, only skater to get 145+ internationally)
    Asada 7:1 (despite stumbles, still 2nd favorite, clean skate looks less and less likely)
    Lipnitskaya 8:1 (closing in on Asada)
    Kostner 10:1 (big question mark due to injury and inconsistency even when uninjured)
    Sotnikova 15:1 (if she magically skates clean, will leapfrog over several others)
    Wagner 20:1 (never clean this season)
    Suzuki 20:1 (gets low marks despite being more likely to skate clean than Wagner)
    Gracie 45:1 (maybe she will change my mind at US Nats)
    Li 65:1 (hopefully she does well but she's Chinese, won't get any breaks)
    Murakami 80:1 (mule kick kills her worse than Nakano's wrap)
    American lady #3 1000:1 (never happening)
    Osmond 549760:1 (injuries, inconsistent, never was a huge standout, and skating in Russia not Canada)
    Hae-jin Kim 10^26:1 (Korean lady #2, that has to count for something)

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    thanks I amma gonna bet conservative this year

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    Davis/White now @ 1/2

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    So is the assumption that Takahashi will be 100% by Sochi? Isn't that kind of a crapshoot? If so, his odds should be higher I would think.

  13. #13
    Custom Title bekalc's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ven View Post
    Akiko now 25/1

    I said her odds were too low, now I'm kind of upset, I was going to wager on her and hedge with bets on Yuna and Mao. I never sports-betted before, I guess that tradition might continue.
    I am still angry because in Gymnastics. Aliya Mustafina was given NO ODDS to win the Olympic gold medal in Uneven Bars. However it was illegal to online bet then in the states . So I couldn't bet, and Aliya won.

    I'm not a fan of gambling, but I thought the odds for Aliya were pretty good.

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    Gracie Gold 25/1

    I thought Akiko @ 50/1 and Gracie @ 100/1 were awfully low-ball odds. Anyone taking Gracie at 25/1 is overpaying now imo. If there's any value at this time I think it's Adelina and Akiko.

  15. #15
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    The overall probability for ladies is 130.7%...

    what is the source? or how did u do the calculation?

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