Current Sochi Odds
Yuna Kim 8/11 ... heavy favorite would be understatement
Mao Asada 3/1 ... if 2014 Sochi Olympics were played over and over again, Yuna beats Mao slightly more than 80% of the time
Julia Lipnitskaia 8/1
Carolina Kostner 8/1 ... Yuna beats Julia and Carolina 92% of the time, Mao beats them 73% of the time
Kanako Murikami 12/1
Adelina Sotnikova 18/1
Ashley Wagner 18/1
Polina Edmunds 33/1
Akiko Suzuki 50/1
Li Zijun 66/1
Gracie Gold 100/1
As a professional gambler I would say that Akiko's and Gracie's odds should be much better, there's value there compared to Carolina and Polina, who seem to be getting more wagers than deserved.
Patrick Chan 1/2 ... heavy heavy favorite
Yuzuru Hanyu 2/1 ... only man with a chance to beat him
Patrick wins Gold 80% of time, Hanyu with 20% chance
Denis Ten 13/1
Daisuke Takahashi 13/1 ... Patrick beats them 96.3% of the time
Javier Fernandez 20/1
Jason Brown 50/1
Kevin Reynolds 66/1
Brian Joubert 66/1
Tatsuki Machida 100/1
Davis and White 4/6
Virtue and Moir 6/5
Davis/White win ~65% of the time
V/T @ 4/7
S/S @ 7/4
About 75% favorite for V / T
Long live the Queen!
Interesting. What is the source?
Does this mean that PChan is the overall favorite for OGM? (i.e. you only get 50 cents for every dollar you bet, whereas for D/W, you get 4/6 out of a dollar, and for Yuna, you get 8/11 out of a dollar)
Yes Patrick is the overall favorite. The odds I quoted are from PaddyPower. I looked on Ladbroke's too and they were only slightly different. Pinnacle another source didn't have complete odds listed so I ignored them and others.
I see Plushenko @ 25/1 now, Kovtun 33/1
I assume Plushenko will be chosen however.
It's called the overround. Bettors in general overpay for their wagers...a team or competitor's true win % might be 65% and the bookmaker will charge @ 66% or 75% or whatever they can get from the market, and they collect the overround as profit. On the other hand, if the bookmaker charges too much then nobody will place a wager. It works just like a stock market .... there is a bid/ask spread between the bookmaker and potential bettors. Just like in stock transactions, the bettor has to eat the marginal bid/ask spread if they are eager enough to place a wager. The bookmaker has to eat the spread if they are more eager to balance their books. A market gets made.
The bookmaker's goal is to make as much money as possible, so this involves a combination of odds being over 100% and getting the highest volume of wagers. If the odds offered add up to 110% compared to true odds of 100%, the bookmaker collects the extra 10% as profit.
ETA: I'm not a bookie and I don't sports bet, so this is pretty close if not 100% correct explanation.
However I do think Carolina, Kanako, and Polina's odds are way too high, while Akiko's and Gracie's are way too low.
It's also possible the market is illiquid, figure skating isn't exactly a big gambling sport and the Olympics are still weeks away.
Wow. Polina ahead of Akiko and Gracie. Good luck with that.
Akiko now 25/1
I said her odds were too low, now I'm kind of upset, I was going to wager on her and hedge with bets on Yuna and Mao. I never sports-betted before, I guess that tradition might continue.
LOL. Let me go back and quote my previous post:
Originally Posted by CarneAsada
thanks I amma gonna bet conservative this year
So is the assumption that Takahashi will be 100% by Sochi? Isn't that kind of a crapshoot? If so, his odds should be higher I would think.
I am still angry because in Gymnastics. Aliya Mustafina was given NO ODDS to win the Olympic gold medal in Uneven Bars. However it was illegal to online bet then in the states . So I couldn't bet, and Aliya won.
Originally Posted by Ven
I'm not a fan of gambling, but I thought the odds for Aliya were pretty good.
Gracie Gold 25/1
I thought Akiko @ 50/1 and Gracie @ 100/1 were awfully low-ball odds. Anyone taking Gracie at 25/1 is overpaying now imo. If there's any value at this time I think it's Adelina and Akiko.
The overall probability for ladies is 130.7%...
what is the source? or how did u do the calculation?