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Thread: Current Sochi Odds

  1. #16
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    Odds according to PaddyPower Irish bookmaker.

  2. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by hybfc View Post
    The overall probability for ladies is 130.7%...
    That's because they want to make a profit.

  3. #18
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    Jason Brown 16/1

    Seems like with the moves on Gracie and Jason in recent days, American $$'s finally starting to get interested.

  4. #19
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    I recall in Vancouver Kim's was at around 1/2, with Asada's and Rochette's both at around 8/1-9/1. So it seems slightly less favorable of Kim and a bit better for Asada this time around.

  5. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by thinspread View Post
    I recall in Vancouver Kim's was at around 1/2, with Asada's and Rochette's both at around 8/1-9/1. So it seems slightly less favorable of Kim and a bit better for Asada this time around.
    So, I thought I would provide links to betting data, as well as make the information easier to understand, especially for the, um, quantitatively challenged .

    Here's a link for a summary of the betting odds provided by a range of bookmakers: http://www.oddschecker.com/winter-ol...g-women/winner

    For the analysis below, I used PaddyPower's betting odds, as they are one of the largest bookmakers, and they provide the most comprehensive oddsmaking for ladies figure skating.

    The betting implied probabilities (calculated as "Wager/(Payout + Wager)") for winning gold in 2014 in Sochi:

    Yuna 58%
    Mao 25%
    Caro 11%
    Julia 11%
    Gracie 4%

    These are somewhat higher than the true mathematical probabilities, as the bookmakers build in a 30% spread for themselves. But the relative positions are similar.

    The "true" implied probabilities (Betting Implied Probability/1.30) for winning in Sochi 2014 are:

    Yuna 45%
    Mao 19%
    Caro 8%
    Julia 8%
    Gracie 3%

    ----------------------------------------------------------------------


    By way of comparison, the odds in Vancouver for Yuna were 1/2, and for Mao were 11/2 (http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/olym...-favorite.html).

    The betting implied probabilities for winning gold in 2010 in Vancouver:

    Yuna 67%
    Mao 15%

    The "true" implied probabilities for gold in Vancouver 2010 were:

    Yuna 51%
    Mao 11%

    ----------------------------------------------------------------------

    Conclusions:

    -According to this particular measure of "the Wisdom of Crowds", Yuna is a bit less of an overwhelming favorite for Sochi than she was for Vancouver at 45% vs. 51%, but that is at the margins. In the larger scheme of things, she is still clearly the overwhelming favorite.

    -Mao is still the leading challenger to Yuna by quite a ways. Her betting probability has even incrementally improved since Vancouver.

    -Caro and Julia are tied in the third spot, but measurably behind Mao.

    -Interestingly, Gracie is not a favorite among bettors.


    On to Sochi, where the box is finally opened, the probability waves collapse to reveal a singular reality, and we get to see whether the cat is alive and well.

  6. #21
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    ^ Excellent! You're a scientist.

  7. #22
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    Updated odds:

    8/11 Yuna Kim

    13/5 Adelina Sotnikova
    3/1 Mao Asada

    6/1 Julia Lipnitskaia
    8/1 Carolina Kostner

    12/1 Kanako Murakami
    14/1 Gracie Gold

    25/1 Akiko Suzuki
    25/1 Ashley Wagner

  8. #23
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    Wow, Adelina is now the 2nd favorite after Yuna. What do the odd-makers know that we don't?^^

  9. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by YunaBliss View Post
    Wow, Adelina is now the 2nd favorite after Yuna. What do the odd-makers know that we don't?^^
    One of two things:

    -someone at PaddyPower made a career-ending mistake somewhere along the line. Notice that it sticks out like a sore thumb when compared to the odds at all the other bookies.

    -some crazy Russian billionaire bet a huge amount on Adelina at PaddyPower, forcing the bookmaker to shorten the odds to compensate .

  10. #25
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    The final odds for the ladies competition:

    even Yuna Kim

    6/4 Julia Lipnitskaia
    7/2 Mao Asada

    14/1 Carolina Kostner

    25/1 Adelina Sotnikova
    25/1 Akiko Suzuki

    35/1 Gracie Gold

    50/1 Kanako Murakami

    66/1 Polina Edmunds
    66/1 Ashley Wagner

    80/1 Li Zijun

  11. #26
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    You don't do odds after the SP?

  12. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by usethis2 View Post
    You don't do odds after the SP?
    Here are the odds after the SP:

    1/3 Yuna Kim

    7/2 Adelina Sotnikova
    9/2 Carolina Kostner

    25/1 Julia Lipnitskaia

    50/1 Gracie Gold

    100/1 Ashley Wagner
    100/1 Kanako Murakami
    100/1 Mao Asada
    100/1 Akiko Suzuki
    100/1 Polina Edmunds
    100/1 Zijun Li

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