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Thread: Everyone is writing off Sotnikova and Asada

  1. #61
    Size 7 Knife Boots Sam-Skwantch's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan;
    If Kim skates reasonably well and wins with the highest PCS and GOE meanwhile, nobody would complain
    You do know that it is actually possible for Kim to not win right? A reasonably well "insert skater here" should never win the Olympics. Someone should skate their best to win. There are enough ladies with enough difficulty that if one were to skate lights out and YuNa skates resonable well, then why award YuNa the win? Do the judges have the courage? That's a whole other topic in itself.

  2. #62
    Forever stuck on those steps Li'Kitsu's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan
    While on paper Sotnikova has many of the things to challenge Kim- big jumps, very strong spins, nice lines and artistry, her poorly choreographed programs which are mostly a sea of meaningless arm movements and gyrations of different parts of the body going at once that seemingly serve no purpose, warrant lower PCS than the very best PCS getters should be (and not just Kim), and the technique on major toe jumps is flawed and ugly. That is without even getting the miracle of what a clean competition would be for her, although I will give her credit for MAJORly improving her consistency and mental toughness this year to what it has been on the past, and cementing herself a real senior level contender for the first time ever as a result. Now she just needs to up it even more to the point she has Julia like consistency and can reel off totally clean program after another in competition (if that is even possible for her or hardly anyone not named Kim or Lipnitskaia), get a way better choreographer, and fix her lutz and a couple of her other jumps technique wise, and with the vets retiring after this year she could be the new dominant skater in the next quad.
    Adelina shouldn't be considered even an outside shot for the OGM, even though I really, really love her. If everything comes together for her, she has a got shot at the bronze medal, and for her second senior season that's amazing enough.

    I doubt she'll ever be as consistent as Julia is now. But so what. Nearly nobody is, and I'm not sure any other of the strong ladies the next 4 years will be (Julia still has to deal with puberty - and while I think people claiming she'll be completly out due to that are overblowing things, she certainly might lose some of her consistency on some of the jumps, like her 2A). Most of all, I think she needs better choreography. I doubt it will happen, since she's likely to stick with a russian choreographer, but I'm sure she could be amazing with some lovely choreo from Buttle or Carmalengo (hey, one can dream!). Next in line would be to get the Lutz edge. Maybe cancel the 3Lz-3 combo and stick with a 3T3T in the SP and 2 2A3Ts in the LP. She has the overall skating quality, these combination will keep her in the running. She could go for a solo 3Lz and really work on the edge (I think her Lutz edge has gotten better, and some of her jumps in training seem to be on a flat edge at least). That would probably already be enough to keep her at the top. The flip technique could use some tweaking, but as long as she lands the jump, the judges really don't seem to mind.

  3. #63
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    Everyone is writing off Sotnikova and Asada

    Right now it looks like a duel between Julia and Kim. But what if Adelina or Mao skate two clean program. Both are known to crumble under pressure, that's why they are underdogs. But with attention away from them, they may finally be able to relax and skate their best. What do you think?

  4. #64
    Custom Title Franklin99's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by volk View Post
    Right now it looks like a duel between Julia and Kim. But what if Adelina or Mao skate two clean program. Both are known to crumble under pressure, that's why they are underdogs. But with attention away from them, they may finally be able to relax and skate their best. What do you think?
    It's very possible for both to go clean. And when they do, Adelina will definitely beat Julia, and Mao can beat Yuna. I hope all top 10 ladies go clean. What an epic battle for gold that would be.

  5. #65
    Riveted vegarin's Avatar
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    Mao is, and always will be, a factor, even if Julia is making her prominence known. A clean Mao is a complete wild card, but if that happens, she will win over anything and everyone, bar none (and that includes Yuna and Julia).

    I'm not sure about Sotnikova. Clean Mao can beat Clean Yuna, but Clean Adelina wouldn't be able to beat Yuna.

    That said, I'm still bummed about Carolina. Carolina was relatively mistake-free and still ranked behind Julia. Ugh.

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    Quote Originally Posted by vegarin View Post
    Mao is, and always will be, a factor, even if Julia is making her prominence known. A clean Mao is a complete wild card, but if that happens, she will win over anything and everyone, bar none (and that includes Yuna and Julia).

    I'm not sure about Sotnikova. Clean Mao can beat Clean Yuna, but Clean Adelina wouldn't be able to beat Yuna.

    That said, I'm still bummed about Carolina. Carolina was relatively mistake-free and still ranked behind Julia. Ugh.
    Agree about Mao. Sotnikova can certainly beat Lipnitskaya but she might need a clean 3Lutz-3Loop in both programs (a very tall order). If she skates cleanly she would easily crack 140 as well given the Russian inflation. The scoring of Carolina relative to the Russians is really disappointing, but a clean LP from Carolina with GOE/PCS in line with her Worlds 2013 performances would get 142 points. She could go higher than that with a clean performance here (even if pangtongfan says that will never happen and clean Carolina is a theoretical construct disobeying the 2nd Law of Thermodynamics: Things Get Worse). So all hope is not lost.

  7. #67
    Yuna's Ice Rink cooper's Avatar
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    no one is writing them off.. adelina didn't compete in the team event i'm sure the russian fed will do anything to make adelina at least a contender... as for mao.. she's the 2 time world champion and the defending olympic silver medalist.. and she has the 3as...and i'm sure if you ask yuna who is the best competitor out there she will say mao.. they've been competing since their juniors.. they are aware what's going on.. and anything is possible.. i just hope the crowd will be diverse in the individual event and would love to see the russian crowd appreciate non russian skaters.. and please no hometown inflation.. or whatever it is..

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    Now that Mao is only planning 1 triple axel in the long, I dont think she would beat a clean Yu Na. It was hotly debated whether or not she would even when she was planning 2, so I dont think she will with 1. As for Sotnikova I actually dont think she will beat Julia here even if she skates cleanly. Normally I think she probably would, but I suspect the Russians have pushed Julia hard behind the scenes to give her a chance of winning here, and the only way to do that would be to essentialy drop Sotnikova altogether. I think if everyone skates cleanly the final results will be something like:

    1. Kim
    2. Lipnitskaya or Asada
    4. Kostner
    5. Sotnikova or Suzuki

    Since everyone wont skate cleanly the final results will actually be something more like this though I believe:

    1.Kim
    2. Lipnitskaya
    3. Gold (I have a feeling she will rise while many others will crumble) or Murakami (ditto)

  9. #69
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    I also find it funny that some of the very same people who were arguing in the other thread a clean Julia might even beat a clean Yu Na are the same ones insisting in this thread a clean Adelina would for sure beat a clean Julia. Isnt that a massive contradiction of sorts.

  10. #70
    Forever stuck on those steps Li'Kitsu's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan
    Now that Mao is only planning 1 triple axel in the long, I dont think she would beat a clean Yu Na.
    I think I've been asking that other posters already, but how does a higher BV, even if it's just one point, make it less likely to beat Yuna? 8 triple layout also means less choreo taken out the first seconds to set the 3As up, so that's actually another plus point. Her chances with the 8 triple layout are definitly higher than with the 2 3As...

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    Quote Originally Posted by Li'Kitsu View Post
    I think I've been asking that other posters already, but how does a higher BV, even if it's just one point, make it less likely to beat Yuna? 8 triple layout also means less choreo taken out the first seconds to set the 3As up, so that's actually another plus point. Her chances with the 8 triple layout are definitly higher than with the 2 3As...
    What I'm wondering is... I've seen a lot of video clips where Mao was attempting 3As and nailed most of them in the practice session, but haven't seen anything about her 3-3. Do you have any link Mao attempts 3-3 in sochi?
    Her chances with the 7 triples layout (1 3A, 3F-2Lo) are much higher than with the 2 3As, but I personally get a bit worried about the 8 triples layout. When I heard she would go back to the former layout I thought the reason is because she got consistency and rotations for 3-3in practice, not because she lost those for the 3A. But it seems like she wasn't even practicing 3-3 in practice, or am I missing some news about it?

  12. #72
    LEAVE EDMUNDS ALONE!!1!
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    Quote Originally Posted by volk View Post
    But what if Adelina or Mao skate two clean program.
    Well they won't, so the point is moot.

    What pangtongfan said. Kim and Lipnitskaia are two skaters most likely to skate near clean and I also have a feeling Gold is going to do well. I wouldn't count Edmunds out. She has no pressure and no expectations on her and if she skates two clean programs, she could theoretically medal if others fail (very small chance, I know, but who knows).

    Even if they Sotnikova and Asada skated clean programs, I think they would still lose to clean Lipnitskaia (higher base value) and clean Kim (higher GOE and PCS).

  13. #73
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    The crazy thing is that if Yu-Na and Mao go clean they may not beat Julia. It's complete and utter absurdity.

  14. #74
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    Now that Mao is only planning 1 triple axel in the long, I dont think she would beat a clean Yu Na. It was hotly debated whether or not she would even when she was planning 2, so I dont think she will with 1. As for Sotnikova I actually dont think she will beat Julia here even if she skates cleanly. Normally I think she probably would, but I suspect the Russians have pushed Julia hard behind the scenes to give her a chance of winning here, and the only way to do that would be to essentialy drop Sotnikova altogether.
    I don't get the logic behind this. Mao has reverted to her original plan of 8 triples, which has scoring potential identical to that of her two 3A layout (BV 1.3 points higher, flutz probably results in net loss of 1.3 GOE which cancels it out). She hasn't gotten credit for her two 3F-3Lo attempts this quad but let's not forget that she has never landed a single 3A-2T of any kind in competition since 2010. A clean 7-triple Asada with just the 3F-2Lo would almost certainly finish behind a clean Kim, but a perfectly clean 8 triple Asada would IMO end up on top given the ~10 point BV advantage which has never materialized in competition as she always kills it with underrotations, doubling, etc. but would be almost insurmountable - Asada is not Kim but she is still no slouch at getting GOE on her spins and the jumps she actually lands properly (at Worlds she got an average of +2 for her 2A-3T).

  15. #75
    Custom Title chapis's Avatar
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    Mao needs land her 3a in the sp to gain confidence and of course the points, in the LP may be is better to skate before yuna and julia, It would be a advantage to skate last to see how the other girls did it and to see what she needs to do, but Mao got very nervous, it happened in Vancouver after to see yuna's scores and now after Yulia skated, so may be is better to skate before them and Adelina, because if they are inflating Julia scores they will do with Adelina, she is obviously better, nobody has doubts if she get +2 or +3 in some her jumps and spins.

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