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Thread: Russian Olympic Team

  1. #76
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    Quote Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy View Post
    I'll be sad if Adelina doesn't skate the short but the decision makes sense because, as others have noted, the placements between them won't change much. If everyone is clean in th SP, both would place behind Mao and ahead of everyone else.
    Despite that Adelina has been beating Julia in the SP, in a sense it would be easier to see a clean Kostner beating a clean Sotnikova in the SP than a clean Kostner beating a clean Lipnitskaya. Atleast with Lipnitskaya she has the much harder jump combination to give her the edge. Sotnikova though is also only doing a triple toe-triple toe, so compared to Kostner, Sotnikova has no obvious edge other than better spins (which Julia also easily has compared to Kostner). While Sotnikova did beat a clean Kostner in the SP at Europeans with the same jumps, that isnt a guarantee to happen the next time. Julia is the one who even beat a clean Kostner by 5 points in the SP once this season, so of which could skate cleanly and still perhaps lose in the SP to Kostner, Sotnikova was possibly seen as the more likely despite regularly beating Julia in the SP this year (along with the more likely to make a big mistake despite that it is now 3 competitions in a row with a clean short by her). That isnt to mention Gold, but I am not sure which of Julia or Sotnikova is more vurnerable to losing to a clean Gold in the short.

  2. #77
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    I am hoping the surprise and bizarre inclusion of I&K in the Russian team event increases the chances of Weaver & Poje to do the FD now. Especialy since France almost certainly wont make the final, W&P now quite possibly would have been expected to finish in exactly the same spot as V&M would be expected to finish (2nd). Of course V&M could potentially be 1st, and W&P could still be lower than 2nd, but I now have a feeling they are more likely to be used to give V&M more a break for the individual and the avoid the possability of the judges seeing them lose 2 more programs in a row to D&W.
    To me, V&M's SD is better than FD. If they pull of a win in the Team SD, a strategy might be to not compete in the Team FD to imprint that win in the judges' mind.

  3. #78
    leave no stone unturned seniorita's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    Bazarova/Larionov and Takahashi did not win Nationals. It is hardly *as* unfair. Arguably Murakami was jipped over Mao, but Mao has had a stellar season other than Japanese nationals and is a sensible choice for the team event.

    Julia and Adelina are essentially evenly matched (with edge going to Julia at this point), so it wouldn't have been a particularly risky thing to split the team event, particularly with Adelina performing strong SPs in her past few competitions.

    I want Julia to perform well in the team event, but between Sotnikova and Kovtun both getting shafted out of competing for a guaranteed medal, I'm so put off by the Russian fed's selections that I'm hoping it all blows up in their face.
    There is no rule for the National Champion to skate in Team event, where did you even read that? Countries choose their best combination.
    Also I think it is unfair for Reynolds not to have a team event medal, and I prefer to watch him over Chan but I m not wishing team Canada ill. There is no restriction on how you pick your team and afterall Team FS will be announced after the SP. Russians, they would either split Ice Dance or Ladies and they chose Ice Dance, but that is for now.
    Last edited by seniorita; 02-04-2014 at 05:59 AM.

  4. #79
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    Quote Originally Posted by seniorita View Post
    There is no rule for the National Champion to skate in Team event, where did you even read that? Countries choose their best combination.
    Also I think it is unfair for Reynolds not to have a team event medal, and I prefer to watch him over Chan but I m not wishing team Canada ill. There is no restriction on how you pick your team and afterall Team FS will be announced after the SP. Russians, they would either split Ice Dance or Ladies and they chose Ice Dance, but that is for now.
    Yes, there is no rule. But considering the team event is about putting forth your best, and giving a chance for skaters to earn another medal (at least if you're from Russia/USA/Canada) it's hardly fair to exclude a national champion from the event.

    If you prefer to watch Reynolds over Chan, that's fine, but the reality is that Chan is a MUCH higher placement potential - he could win the maximum points for Canada, whereas Reynolds could lose the gold in one fell swoop. Chan messing up would be the equivalent of Reynolds best effort (unless he somehow skates his 4CC LP from last year). Chan's scoring ceiling is about 20 points higher than Reynolds and there are a lot of men in between that, including Machida, Plushenko, Yan (if China makes the final) and even potentially Brown.

  5. #80
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    That isnt to mention Gold, but I am not sure which of Julia or Sotnikova is more vurnerable to losing to a clean Gold in the short.
    Ashley is skating the SP so it is likely that either Russian would beat her because their 3/3s are far more steady than Ashley's.

  6. #81
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    Quote Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy View Post
    Ashley is skating the SP so it is likely that either Russian would beat her because their 3/3s are far more steady than Ashley's.
    Bad move on part of the USFS. Gracie is a much better SP skater and could get a big score to set up Wagner in the LP.

  7. #82
    Forever stuck on those steps Li'Kitsu's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy
    If you prefer to watch Reynolds over Chan, that's fine, but the reality is that Chan is a MUCH higher placement potential - he could win the maximum points for Canada, whereas Reynolds could lose the gold in one fell swoop. Chan messing up would be the equivalent of Reynolds best effort (unless he somehow skates his 4CC LP from last year). Chan's scoring ceiling is about 20 points higher than Reynolds and there are a lot of men in between that, including Machida, Plushenko, Yan (if China makes the final) and even potentially Brown.
    Agreed, andKevin could also be beaten by Amodio and maybe Joubert if France makes the LP. As much as I like him, it's not unlikely for him to finish last in the men's event, the only team that could make the top 5 who's man he'd definitly beat is Italy. Chan would very likely win the Team LP. It's not unfair to leave Kevin of the team, he's just not in shape to help and using him might actually cost Canada the gold. Adelina is in good shape to help her team and proved it - especially more than I&K did.

  8. #83
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    Quote Originally Posted by Li'Kitsu View Post
    Agreed, andKevin could also be beaten by Amodio and maybe Joubert if France makes the LP. As much as I like him, it's not unlikely for him to finish last in the men's event, the only team that could make the top 5 who's man he'd definitly beat is Italy. Chan would very likely win the Team LP. It's not unfair to leave Kevin of the team, he's just not in shape to help and using him might actually cost Canada the gold. Adelina is in good shape to help her team and proved it - especially more than I&K did.
    Precisely. At his best, he does have the *potential* to assist Team Canada, but he hasn't shown that at all this year... hopefully his boot problems are all sorted out. If he costs Canada the gold that could really upset his morale going into the individual event.

  9. #84
    Size 7 Knife Boots Sam-Skwantch's Avatar
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    @Jammers ITA
    Gold will likely finish at 4th or worse in the FS. Her highest FS score outside of US this season is only 117.20(22 pts lower than her US nationals score). She finished 3rd in all three of her FS (excluding Nat's) this year in fields less deep. While Gracie's low SP score this year of 58 would likely bury the US she did manage a 69.45 at skate Canada and beat Lip and Suzuki. This score is a lot closer to her 72 at US nat's and more reasonable to expect.
    Last edited by Sam-Skwantch; 02-04-2014 at 10:50 AM. Reason: Stupidity

  10. #85
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    It's hard to say, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Gracie in 4th if Akiko and Julia skate well. However, Ashley isn't going to place higher if those two women skate well either.

  11. #86
    Forever stuck on those steps Li'Kitsu's Avatar
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    Gracie would have a better shot in the SP though... ash can very likely lose to Mao, Julia and Caro, and maybe others (Kaetlyn, Zijun) if she stumbles.

  12. #87
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sam-Skwantch View Post
    I do however love Adelina and feel for her if she is in fact left out. This is nowhere near as controversial as some other countries and their Olympic selections
    You hit on the key word here and the possibility not many others seem to have considered – if Adelina was left out. Coming into the Olympics, only these skaters and their federations have an idea of what their mentalities are. From what I've seen, it looks like the Russian federation will promote Adelina ahead of Julia if both are clean. If so, it seems possible that she was offered the first shot at the team competition and is choosing (for her own reasons) to A) wait until closer to the games to see how she feels or B) save herself for the individual event.

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