Team Competition -- Who will win what medals?
I can't seem to find any information on who's likely to medal in Team Competition.
Who are the favorites?
Gold -- Canada
Silver -- Russia
Bronze -- USA
More or less: more is more
Yeah, Russia, USA and Canada are medal favorites, but it's hard to predict how they stand in relation to each other before the make up of the teams are announced.
Is it for sure than Patrick Chan will not skate twice in the team event? I think Canada still has the edge with Chan, Virtue and Moir, ttwo strong pairs teams and pretty good lady.
I think it will be
Gold - Russia
Silver - Canada
Bronze - USA
Japan may have an outside chance for a bronze.
I think Russia will have a lot of momentum and may get a hometown boost in scores.
Japan's going to have a hard time even making it to the free skate. Russia, Canada, and USA are locks for making the freeskate and I think Italy will make it too. I used to think France would be the other country but I'm not so sure anymore. It could be China now that Zijun's back to normal. Japan's pair and ice dancers can beat the Ukrainians but I don't know if they can beat anyone else so that would be just 4 points there. Both their singles skaters probably need to win the SP for Japan to have any chance of making the free.
Originally Posted by Danibellerika
Their singles are very strong though and didn't a pairs team medal recently? How many countries can advance to the final?
There is no way the USA beats Canada in this event. Gold medal is between Russia and Canada.
Skating is art, if you let it be.
Yes there is.
Originally Posted by kresslia
It's unlikely USA will win Gold, though.
Forever stuck on those steps
Actually, I think it's very likely Japan will make it to the FS (assuming they'll use their strongest single skaters for the SP), simply due to the lack of any other really strong nation besides Russia, Canada and USA. China goes in like a worse version of Japan - they don't have any good Ice Dance team and might even get beaten by Reed/Reed here. I read somewhere that P/T won't skate in the team event, and while I don't really remember which team will, they're relativly likely to get beaten by Russia, Canada, USA, Italy and probably France. Zijun is amazing and I'm glad she's back, but her scoring potential especially in the SP isn't that high. Han Yan is their best shot, but he's still very likely to place behind the japanese man.
Originally Posted by Nena
I'd say Germany, Ukraine, Great Britian and China are definitly out after the SP. It's between Japan, Italy and France - and with the way the french guys skated at Euros, I wouldn't count on them.
It's going to be interesting who will skate for Japan and Italy though. They don't have any chance of a medal, so maybe they'll decide to rest their big guns for the individual events (like S/S and P/T). Or they'll let their best skaters try out Olympic ice in a relativly low pressure event, it could be a big help for first-Olympians like Hanyu or Murakami.
So, since Russia, USA and Canada are pretty much a given for the final, there are two slots open.
So who's likely to prevail between, say, France and Italy? If we presume that their best skate, is this a likely scenario?
Ice Dance: France?
The spread is also important. If the Italian man finishes near the bottom in the field of ten, while the French lady lands somewhere in the middle, that will favor France. In ice dance, the French and Italian teams will probably be close together, so it won't matter so much which one inches ahead.
This is a very important point you just made. For example, Russians having a stronger Pair than Canada is only true on paper. In reality. V/T will likely only skate the SP and with S/S of Germany not participating, at best Russia will be merely 1 spot higher than Canada in Pairs short of accidents given that the top team from China will not skate either and all the other better Pairs are all Russian who won't be able to skate due to V/T doing it. D/R will be able to hold on to 2nd place in the SP relatively easily. But V/T will not do the FS so even if D/R rests for the FS and pass the torch to M-T/M, they are still the next highest ranked team the in the world to skate the FS and have a decent chance of finishing 1st in the FS, erasing the 1 placement difference in Pairs between Canada and Russia. So the overall point spread from Pairs between Russia and Canada may very well turn out to be neutral. So when somebody in this thread made yet another self-proclaimed infaillable prediction that Canada will be 3rd in the Team Event because Russia has much superior Pair, clearly, that person was out of touch with reality.
Originally Posted by Mathman
Similar in Ladies, much uncertainty remains on who will actually take part and this can greatly affect the outcome of the SP. Will Kostner skate? Which Russian girl will take the SP? Who will be the Japanese representative? Remember, Kim will not be there. Suppose Kostner takes part and Mao is selected for SP, there is very good chance that the Russian girl will be no better than 3rd after the SP, which may limit the spread between her and the American or Canadian girl. In fact, it is not guaranteed the Russian girl will necessarily be 3rd in the SP, could be lower.
The end-game scenario between Canada and Russia will likely come down to the spread between Dance and Ladies. Canada will gain some cushion over Russia based on Olympic Champions Virtue/Moir's results. If Osmond outperform, she will limit the spread in the ladies and send the deciding factor to the Men's. Free Skate favors Plushenko as either American men are well within his reach, the Italian man is a non-factor while either Frenchmen are easily beatable. If a Japaense man made it to the Final, it's bad news for Plushenko. Otherwise, Russia has the potential to limit the damage in Men's Free Skate only to Chan and no one else.