Team Competition -- Who will win what medals? | Golden Skate

Team Competition -- Who will win what medals?

Ven

Match Penalty
Joined
Mar 17, 2013
I can't seem to find any information on who's likely to medal in Team Competition.

Who are the favorites?
 

sequinsgalore

Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 12, 2008
Yeah, Russia, USA and Canada are medal favorites, but it's hard to predict how they stand in relation to each other before the make up of the teams are announced.
 
Joined
Jun 21, 2003
Is it for sure than Patrick Chan will not skate twice in the team event? I think Canada still has the edge with Chan, Virtue and Moir, ttwo strong pairs teams and pretty good lady.
 

Danibellerika

Medalist
Joined
Jan 8, 2014
I think it will be

Gold - Russia
Silver - Canada
Bronze - USA

Japan may have an outside chance for a bronze.

I think Russia will have a lot of momentum and may get a hometown boost in scores.
 

Nena

Rinkside
Joined
Dec 11, 2010
Japan may have an outside chance for a bronze.

Japan's going to have a hard time even making it to the free skate. Russia, Canada, and USA are locks for making the freeskate and I think Italy will make it too. I used to think France would be the other country but I'm not so sure anymore. It could be China now that Zijun's back to normal. Japan's pair and ice dancers can beat the Ukrainians but I don't know if they can beat anyone else so that would be just 4 points there. Both their singles skaters probably need to win the SP for Japan to have any chance of making the free.
 

Danibellerika

Medalist
Joined
Jan 8, 2014
Their singles are very strong though and didn't a pairs team medal recently? How many countries can advance to the final?
 

Li'Kitsu

Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 29, 2011
Nena said:
Japan's going to have a hard time even making it to the free skate. Russia, Canada, and USA are locks for making the freeskate and I think Italy will make it too. I used to think France would be the other country but I'm not so sure anymore. It could be China now that Zijun's back to normal. Japan's pair and ice dancers can beat the Ukrainians but I don't know if they can beat anyone else so that would be just 4 points there. Both their singles skaters probably need to win the SP for Japan to have any chance of making the free.

Actually, I think it's very likely Japan will make it to the FS (assuming they'll use their strongest single skaters for the SP), simply due to the lack of any other really strong nation besides Russia, Canada and USA. China goes in like a worse version of Japan - they don't have any good Ice Dance team and might even get beaten by Reed/Reed here. I read somewhere that P/T won't skate in the team event, and while I don't really remember which team will, they're relativly likely to get beaten by Russia, Canada, USA, Italy and probably France. Zijun is amazing and I'm glad she's back, but her scoring potential especially in the SP isn't that high. Han Yan is their best shot, but he's still very likely to place behind the japanese man.

I'd say Germany, Ukraine, Great Britian and China are definitly out after the SP. It's between Japan, Italy and France - and with the way the french guys skated at Euros, I wouldn't count on them.

It's going to be interesting who will skate for Japan and Italy though. They don't have any chance of a medal, so maybe they'll decide to rest their big guns for the individual events (like S/S and P/T). Or they'll let their best skaters try out Olympic ice in a relativly low pressure event, it could be a big help for first-Olympians like Hanyu or Murakami.
 

LRK

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 13, 2012
So, since Russia, USA and Canada are pretty much a given for the final, there are two slots open.

So who's likely to prevail between, say, France and Italy? If we presume that their best skate, is this a likely scenario?

Men: France
Ladies: Italy
Pairs: Italy?
Ice Dance: France?
 
Joined
Jun 21, 2003
The spread is also important. If the Italian man finishes near the bottom in the field of ten, while the French lady lands somewhere in the middle, that will favor France. In ice dance, the French and Italian teams will probably be close together, so it won't matter so much which one inches ahead.
 

wallylutz

Medalist
Joined
Mar 23, 2010
The spread is also important. If the Italian man finishes near the bottom in the field of ten, while the French lady lands somewhere in the middle, that will favor France. In ice dance, the French and Italian teams will probably be close together, so it won't matter so much which one inches ahead.

This is a very important point you just made. For example, Russians having a stronger Pair than Canada is only true on paper. In reality. V/T will likely only skate the SP and with S/S of Germany not participating, at best Russia will be merely 1 spot higher than Canada in Pairs short of accidents given that the top team from China will not skate either and all the other better Pairs are all Russian who won't be able to skate due to V/T doing it. D/R will be able to hold on to 2nd place in the SP relatively easily. But V/T will not do the FS so even if D/R rests for the FS and pass the torch to M-T/M, they are still the next highest ranked team the in the world to skate the FS and have a decent chance of finishing 1st in the FS, erasing the 1 placement difference in Pairs between Canada and Russia. So the overall point spread from Pairs between Russia and Canada may very well turn out to be neutral. So when somebody in this thread made yet another self-proclaimed infaillable prediction that Canada will be 3rd in the Team Event because Russia has much superior Pair, clearly, that person was out of touch with reality.

Similar in Ladies, much uncertainty remains on who will actually take part and this can greatly affect the outcome of the SP. Will Kostner skate? Which Russian girl will take the SP? Who will be the Japanese representative? Remember, Kim will not be there. Suppose Kostner takes part and Mao is selected for SP, there is very good chance that the Russian girl will be no better than 3rd after the SP, which may limit the spread between her and the American or Canadian girl. In fact, it is not guaranteed the Russian girl will necessarily be 3rd in the SP, could be lower.

The end-game scenario between Canada and Russia will likely come down to the spread between Dance and Ladies. Canada will gain some cushion over Russia based on Olympic Champions Virtue/Moir's results. If Osmond outperform, she will limit the spread in the ladies and send the deciding factor to the Men's. Free Skate favors Plushenko as either American men are well within his reach, the Italian man is a non-factor while either Frenchmen are easily beatable. If a Japaense man made it to the Final, it's bad news for Plushenko. Otherwise, Russia has the potential to limit the damage in Men's Free Skate only to Chan and no one else.
 

Skater Boy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 24, 2012
We need a real mathman or woman. Yes, the spread or ordinal differentiations are key. that`s why i was trying to figure out other than USA, Canada and Russia who would be the other two teams in the final - Italy, China, Japan or France probably. France and Italy are perhaps the two biggest wild cards. Who knows exactly where the french dance - in all disciplines their positioning is so precarious with a huge spread potential. Actually Italy is that way too Carolina is she on or off. The pairs and dance teams also could do very well or so so - it is unsure where C and L stand inthis world yes, they beat I and K at Euros but not by much and the scores and such suggest the second Americans and Canadians are ahead as well as the top russian team. I am not so sure C and L are the strongest Oly bronze faves in dance. It looks like the French, The Russians and USA 2 and Canada 2 are ahead and considering the mistakes of I and K probably them too. But again it depends on who skates as well. This really is strategy. Canada may have to get Chan to skate both events to really have a chance at gold. Their biggest `spread`is Osmond she could do fairly well or plummet behind ie in sp behind the second tier female skaters ie China, France assuming she loses to usa, russia, italy, japan for sure in the team event. But she potentially could upset some of those top tier. USA actually is lucky in some ways because in pairs which is the weak link when it comes to the finals they potentially could be third (sure higher but doubtfull). The key really will be the spread with ten teams when some of those lower team skaters could really `play spoiler. Russia for example would have had a better chance had the stars aligned and S quared skated and came second to V and T in the short giving more space between Russia and Canada and the Usa. The ordinal system really favours the weaker teams ie. japan has a chance because it not points but ordinals so their problems in pairs and dance aren`t nearly as noticeable or does not have such an affect as it had been total points (which is why when there are more singles skaters points or results used in the world team event that it favours Japan).
 

wallylutz

Medalist
Joined
Mar 23, 2010
Anyone knows if there will be any ordinal factors similar to the 6.0 era for SP and FS? The way I understand it, the team with the lowest total ordinal wins, therefore, in principle skater/couple who finish 1st = 1 and the skater/couple finish 10th = 10. For the SP though, will these ordinals be factored like the 6.0 era? That is 1st = 0.50, 2nd = 1.0, 3rd = 1.5 and etc. For the FS, I imagine it would be 1st = 1.00, 2nd = 2.00, so on so forth. I am not up to date with respect to the Team Event rules, would be curious to know.
 

fadeevfan

Rinkside
Joined
Feb 1, 2004
Fun thing about this will be the (probable) non-medal winner who has the chance to be a hero. You can imagine a Kaetlyn Osmond or Jeremy Abbott having the skate of their lives -- esp. outside the intense pressure of the individual events -- and beating favorites. Really excited to see how this event plays out.

Plushenko: People banking on his brilliance baffle me a bit. We haven't seen him go head-to-head against the truly best in the world in 4 years. I think Plushy fans need to brace themselves. . .
 

seniorita

Record Breaker
Joined
Jun 3, 2008
How many truly best in the world will Plushenko face in team event? The worst mark he han get on fs is 6.
 
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