Call me unconvinced re: Julia as well. She couldn't even beat Sotnikova for the Russia title or in the SP at Europeans even though Sotnikova only did a 3T+3T and 3F, exactly like Osmond has planned. Not to mention, Sotnikova have lost to Osmond twice already and Osmond have already beaten Mao and Ashley in SP before. The picture is far from clear even though a Jo Jo 1-900 wants us to believe the results are already written in stone. Julia may well come ahead of Osmond, but where will the "by several places" come from? Mao? Carolina? Ashley? Chinese girl? France? Germany?
Julia is just as likely to be beaten by Mao and Carolina just as she is likely to be ahead of Osmond. Ashley is a ? at this point, she could be anywhere, ahead of Julia or behind a lot of girls, we just don't know. But we can all agree if Osmond skates even half decent, she will be ahead of girls from France and Germany, UK and Ukraine, and very likely to be ahead of Kexin Zhang as well. Realistically, Julia can be 1 or 2 spots higher than Osmond. Then again, she may not.
If everyone skates clean the results of the womens short will be:
Julia has beaten a clean Kostner in the short program twice, and the time it was in Russia it was by 5 points. Julia will not be placed below Kostner unless she makes a mistake, and she almost certainly wont. Wagner has generally been okish in the short all year, and will probably be again. Osmond is far more likely to make a mistake and drop below her expected 5th place than the more consistent Julia is to make one and drop below her expected 2nd, so the expected 3 points gap could be bigger than that.
Also ROTFL at the notoriously clueless poster who stated it is more likely Julia finishes below Osmond in SP than she is able to beat Kostner. Julia is in fact likely to beat Kostner in the SP, while Osmond beating her in the SP would require a fall on a major element (and even then might well not even if Osmond is clean).
So canadian skaters had to skate perfect and then wait for mistakes from russians.
If there is no more war or hunger this world, we would all be better off, wouldn't we? When was the last time in an Olympics, every single top 10 skaters all go clean or even close to? Like never. A competition is not an exercise of favoritism on paper or we may just as well phone in the results, anything can happen and in Singles, surprises are abundant. Who expected Tara Lipinski to win Gold in 1998 when Michelle Kwan had no visible errors? Who expected Sarah Hughes to win Gold in 2002? And who thought Arakawa would be anywhere near the podium, let alone Gold in Torino? Who expected Dennis Ten to beat Takahashi and Hanyu at the 2013 Worlds? I could go on and on. This is just silly. The only discipline we can predict with high degree of certainty is Ice Dance and perhaps Pairs, but Singles, no way.
if wishes were fishes...If everyone skates clean the results of the womens short will be:
some of those ladies are the biggest chokers in the game
Lipnitskaia isn't one of them.
Canada has a hole in the ladies. V/M will keep CAN in the hunt but RUS has solid competitors in every discipline.