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Thread: Team Competition -- Who will win what medals?

  1. #16
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    We need a real mathman or woman. Yes, the spread or ordinal differentiations are key. that`s why i was trying to figure out other than USA, Canada and Russia who would be the other two teams in the final - Italy, China, Japan or France probably. France and Italy are perhaps the two biggest wild cards. Who knows exactly where the french dance - in all disciplines their positioning is so precarious with a huge spread potential. Actually Italy is that way too Carolina is she on or off. The pairs and dance teams also could do very well or so so - it is unsure where C and L stand inthis world yes, they beat I and K at Euros but not by much and the scores and such suggest the second Americans and Canadians are ahead as well as the top russian team. I am not so sure C and L are the strongest Oly bronze faves in dance. It looks like the French, The Russians and USA 2 and Canada 2 are ahead and considering the mistakes of I and K probably them too. But again it depends on who skates as well. This really is strategy. Canada may have to get Chan to skate both events to really have a chance at gold. Their biggest `spread`is Osmond she could do fairly well or plummet behind ie in sp behind the second tier female skaters ie China, France assuming she loses to usa, russia, italy, japan for sure in the team event. But she potentially could upset some of those top tier. USA actually is lucky in some ways because in pairs which is the weak link when it comes to the finals they potentially could be third (sure higher but doubtfull). The key really will be the spread with ten teams when some of those lower team skaters could really `play spoiler. Russia for example would have had a better chance had the stars aligned and S quared skated and came second to V and T in the short giving more space between Russia and Canada and the Usa. The ordinal system really favours the weaker teams ie. japan has a chance because it not points but ordinals so their problems in pairs and dance aren`t nearly as noticeable or does not have such an affect as it had been total points (which is why when there are more singles skaters points or results used in the world team event that it favours Japan).

  2. #17
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    Anyone knows if there will be any ordinal factors similar to the 6.0 era for SP and FS? The way I understand it, the team with the lowest total ordinal wins, therefore, in principle skater/couple who finish 1st = 1 and the skater/couple finish 10th = 10. For the SP though, will these ordinals be factored like the 6.0 era? That is 1st = 0.50, 2nd = 1.0, 3rd = 1.5 and etc. For the FS, I imagine it would be 1st = 1.00, 2nd = 2.00, so on so forth. I am not up to date with respect to the Team Event rules, would be curious to know.

  3. #18
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    Fun thing about this will be the (probable) non-medal winner who has the chance to be a hero. You can imagine a Kaetlyn Osmond or Jeremy Abbott having the skate of their lives -- esp. outside the intense pressure of the individual events -- and beating favorites. Really excited to see how this event plays out.

    Plushenko: People banking on his brilliance baffle me a bit. We haven't seen him go head-to-head against the truly best in the world in 4 years. I think Plushy fans need to brace themselves. . .

  4. #19
    leave no stone unturned seniorita's Avatar
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    How many truly best in the world will Plushenko face in team event? The worst mark he han get on fs is 6.

  5. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by seniorita View Post
    How many truly best in the world will Plushenko face in team event? The worst mark he han get on fs is 6.
    Thats a good point.

  6. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by wallylutz View Post
    Anyone knows if there will be any ordinal factors similar to the 6.0 era for SP and FS? The way I understand it, the team with the lowest total ordinal wins, therefore, in principle skater/couple who finish 1st = 1 and the skater/couple finish 10th = 10. For the SP though, will these ordinals be factored like the 6.0 era? That is 1st = 0.50, 2nd = 1.0, 3rd = 1.5 and etc. For the FS, I imagine it would be 1st = 1.00, 2nd = 2.00, so on so forth. I am not up to date with respect to the Team Event rules, would be curious to know.
    No, there is not.

    If you're first in either the short of the long program, you get 10 points. 9 points for second, 8 points for third, etc. The thing is that only five teams compete in the long, so the last place finisher in the long gets six points (places fifth). The last place finisher in the short gets only one (ranks 10th). The quoted below is copied from the ISU Communication on the subject (I can't find the link, but I have the PDF on my computer if you'd like me to send it to you). The emphasis is mine

    For each discipline and segment placement points will be awarded as follows:
    1st10 placement points
    2nd 9 placement points
    3rd 8 placement points
    4th 7 placement points
    5th 6 placement points
    6th 5 placement points
    7th 4 placement points
    8th 3 placement points
    9th 2 placement points
    10th 1 placement point.
    So a bad performance in the short program really hurts, especially in a broad field. To give you an example of how cruel this can be, I'm going to use the compulsory dance of the 2007 Worlds (top five) and pretend that it was in the team event.

    1. Canada - Dubrueil/Lauzon (10 points)
    2. Bulgaria - Denkova/Staviski (9 points)
    3. Russia - Domnina/Shabalin (8 points)
    4. France - Delobel/Schoefelder (7 points)
    5. USA - Belbin/Agosto (6 points)

    Now, it doesn't matter which teams make it if Bulgaria and USA both make the long. Bulgaria, as long as they're two spots (or less) behind the USA, have won more points in ice dance. But Denkova/Staviski (who contributes 9 points to Bulgaria) only outscored Belbin/Agosto by 0.25 points! But in this event, that means three full places ahead. Ice dance this season is the best example because P/B, I/K, B/S, C/L and W/P (depending on who competes, of course) can end up in literally any order and it would be unsurprising. It's not just how good you are relative to your opponents. It's how good your opponents are relative to your other opponents (I swear, the only great thing about the team event is analyzing the game theory behind it).

    But it's not only that. The teams that don't make the long/free programs have some major spoilers as well. For example, Wende/Wende may not make the finals for Germany, but a strong skate from them will beat a weak skate from say James/Cipres (but France > Germany overall). And in every discipline, there are probably two or three spoilers (though, again, that depends on how well everyone skates). Japan might not make the free, but man will they put back virtually every team that does

  7. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by seniorita View Post
    How many truly best in the world will Plushenko face in team event? The worst mark he han get on fs is 6.
    Plushenkos SP from Volvo Cup scored 82.34. Lets expect him to be better, but for context, using everyone else's season's best (unlikely, but go with it)

    1. Japan (Hanyu - 99.84) - 10 points
    2. Canada (Chan - 98.52) - 9 points
    3. China (Yan - 90.14) - 8 points
    4. USA (Brown - 84.77) - 7 points
    5. Russia (Plushenko - 82.34) - 6 points
    6. France (Amodio - 78.60) - 5 points
    7. Germany (Liebers - 77.82) - 4 points
    8. Ukraine (Godorozha - 63.68) - 3 points
    9. Italy (Parkinson - 63.37) - 2 points
    10. Great Britain (Mayberry - 54.85) 1 point

    Meanwhile, Plushenko's Euros 2013 SP would place him 7th with four points. I think Russia scoring less than 15 points from mens is a huge obstacle.

  8. #23
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    Mao and Hanyu will skate SP for Japan right? That's 18 minimum possibly 19-20 points. Even with low placings in other fields, I think Japan should advance to FS, but I don't know enough to make an informed opinion.

    ETA: It seems the Reeds will earn 1-2 points in Ice Dance, so that's minimum 19 and possibly 20-22 points.

    In Pairs, according to odds, JPN is favored to finished ahead of GBR almost for sure, with a chance to beat FRA and smaller chance to beat ITA.

  9. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ven View Post
    Mao and Hanyu will skate SP for Japan right? That's 18 minimum possibly 19-20 points. Even with low placings in other fields, I think Japan should advance to FS, but I don't know enough to make an informed opinion.

    ETA: It seems the Reeds will earn 1-2 points in Ice Dance, so that's minimum 19 and possibly 20-22 points.

    In Pairs, according to odds, JPN is favored to finished ahead of GBR almost for sure, with a chance to beat FRA and smaller chance to beat ITA.
    I'd expect that you'd need 23-25 points to realistically qualify for the Free. Using last season as a barometer and the Worlds SP as our data source, 23 points was what the fifth ranked team would get (Italy). Japan got 22 - Hanyu underperformed in the Worlds short.

  10. #25
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    The other aspect I'm interested in seeing play out is pressure.

    I've read that the pressure for a skater in the team event may be less... but I think it could be MORE.

    How will skaters perform when they are carrying the burden of teammates' medal hopes, in addition to their own? It may not be the individual title on the line, but it's still an OGM.

    I think I am in the minority, because I love the idea of the team event, and I'm intrigued by how different teams will play the game.

  11. #26
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    I agree with TontoK. I think this team thing is going to take off, at least in the countries that perennially have a good chance to win. Skating Federations will be kicking themselves if they hold out their best athletes to "rest" them and abandon the chance to go into the Olympic history books as the first winner of the event.

  12. #27
    she takes the audience on her journey of emotions Layfan's Avatar
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    Anybody know if any countries are taking advantage of this rule:

    "However, in order to complete a team the NOCs, if necessary and applicable, can make one entry (for one discipline) according to the “Additional Athletes Quota”"

    Is there any skater out there that didn't make it to the individual event that is getting a chance to go to the Olympics for the team event? That would be so cool.

    Also, I agree that Mathman that the country federation will take the event seriously and that it has the potential to take off with time. I don't think it will be as pressure-packed as the individual competition - not this year anyway - but it does come first. No medal contender will want to bomb in the team event so publicly right before biggest skate of their life. The stress of the team event could sneak up on the athletes, who probably haven't been focusing on that most of the season.

  13. #28
    I'm gonna Customize the CRAP out of this Title!!! Frenchie's Avatar
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    Seems to me that the decision to let the ordinals decide and not the addition of the total points goes towards what Cinquanta has been advocating for: more drama. Even if it's to the detriment of sporting criteria, which was one of the main reasons to implement the new post-6.0 scoring system.
    If 5 skaters' performances are virtually identical in the SP, why not award them with virtually the same marks and see how it goes?
    Like this, if you're lucky, you can get 4 points out of 10 more than someone with virtually the same performance. If you're unlucky, it's 4 points less, maybe only due to a few hundredths of a point.
    This "old way" of attributing points rewards those teams with serious "bombing potential", like Japan with it's Pair. Instead of getting an insurmountable point deficit to almost the entire field, they'll only lose 1 point to the team that's 1 position ahead, even if it's by a humongous amount of points - like it's most likely going to be.

  14. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by Layfan View Post
    Anybody know if any countries are taking advantage of this rule:

    "However, in order to complete a team the NOCs, if necessary and applicable, can make one entry (for one discipline) according to the “Additional Athletes Quota”"

    Is there any skater out there that didn't make it to the individual event that is getting a chance to go to the Olympics for the team event? That would be so cool.

    Also, I agree that Mathman that the country federation will take the event seriously and that it has the potential to take off with time. I don't think it will be as pressure-packed as the individual competition - not this year anyway - but it does come first. No medal contender will want to bomb in the team event so publicly right before biggest skate of their life. The stress of the team event could sneak up on the athletes, who probably haven't been focusing on that most of the season.
    Great Britain didn't qualify a skater for men's, and will be using the Additional Athlete Quote. Japan is using the additional athlete quota because they didn't qualify a pairs skater. Otherwise, every nation has qualified in all four disciplines; either from Worlds or from Nebelhorn.

  15. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by Frenchie View Post
    Seems to me that the decision to let the ordinals decide and not the addition of the total points goes towards what Cinquanta has been advocating for: more drama. Even if it's to the detriment of sporting criteria, which was one of the main reasons to implement the new post-6.0 scoring system.

    If 5 skaters' performances are virtually identical in the SP, why not award them with virtually the same marks and see how it goes?
    To me, that would be unsporting. In sports, you win…or you lose. Close doesn't count.

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