Team Competition -- Who will win what medals? | Page 2 | Golden Skate

Team Competition -- Who will win what medals?

ImaginaryPogue

Record Breaker
Joined
Jun 3, 2009
Anyone knows if there will be any ordinal factors similar to the 6.0 era for SP and FS? The way I understand it, the team with the lowest total ordinal wins, therefore, in principle skater/couple who finish 1st = 1 and the skater/couple finish 10th = 10. For the SP though, will these ordinals be factored like the 6.0 era? That is 1st = 0.50, 2nd = 1.0, 3rd = 1.5 and etc. For the FS, I imagine it would be 1st = 1.00, 2nd = 2.00, so on so forth. I am not up to date with respect to the Team Event rules, would be curious to know.

No, there is not.

If you're first in either the short of the long program, you get 10 points. 9 points for second, 8 points for third, etc. The thing is that only five teams compete in the long, so the last place finisher in the long gets six points (places fifth). The last place finisher in the short gets only one (ranks 10th). The quoted below is copied from the ISU Communication on the subject (I can't find the link, but I have the PDF on my computer if you'd like me to send it to you). The emphasis is mine

For each discipline and segment placement points will be awarded as follows:
1st10 placement points
2nd 9 placement points
3rd 8 placement points
4th 7 placement points
5th 6 placement points
6th 5 placement points
7th 4 placement points
8th 3 placement points
9th 2 placement points
10th 1 placement point.

So a bad performance in the short program really hurts, especially in a broad field. To give you an example of how cruel this can be, I'm going to use the compulsory dance of the 2007 Worlds (top five) and pretend that it was in the team event.

1. Canada - Dubrueil/Lauzon (10 points)
2. Bulgaria - Denkova/Staviski (9 points)
3. Russia - Domnina/Shabalin (8 points)
4. France - Delobel/Schoefelder (7 points)
5. USA - Belbin/Agosto (6 points)

Now, it doesn't matter which teams make it if Bulgaria and USA both make the long. Bulgaria, as long as they're two spots (or less) behind the USA, have won more points in ice dance. But Denkova/Staviski (who contributes 9 points to Bulgaria) only outscored Belbin/Agosto by 0.25 points! But in this event, that means three full places ahead. Ice dance this season is the best example because P/B, I/K, B/S, C/L and W/P (depending on who competes, of course) can end up in literally any order and it would be unsurprising. It's not just how good you are relative to your opponents. It's how good your opponents are relative to your other opponents (I swear, the only great thing about the team event is analyzing the game theory behind it).

But it's not only that. The teams that don't make the long/free programs have some major spoilers as well. For example, Wende/Wende may not make the finals for Germany, but a strong skate from them will beat a weak skate from say James/Cipres (but France > Germany overall). And in every discipline, there are probably two or three spoilers (though, again, that depends on how well everyone skates). Japan might not make the free, but man will they put back virtually every team that does
 

ImaginaryPogue

Record Breaker
Joined
Jun 3, 2009
How many truly best in the world will Plushenko face in team event? The worst mark he han get on fs is 6.

Plushenkos SP from Volvo Cup scored 82.34. Lets expect him to be better, but for context, using everyone else's season's best (unlikely, but go with it)

1. Japan (Hanyu - 99.84) - 10 points
2. Canada (Chan - 98.52) - 9 points
3. China (Yan - 90.14) - 8 points
4. USA (Brown - 84.77) - 7 points
5. Russia (Plushenko - 82.34) - 6 points
6. France (Amodio - 78.60) - 5 points
7. Germany (Liebers - 77.82) - 4 points
8. Ukraine (Godorozha - 63.68) - 3 points
9. Italy (Parkinson - 63.37) - 2 points
10. Great Britain (Mayberry - 54.85) 1 point

Meanwhile, Plushenko's Euros 2013 SP would place him 7th with four points. I think Russia scoring less than 15 points from mens is a huge obstacle.
 

Ven

Match Penalty
Joined
Mar 17, 2013
Mao and Hanyu will skate SP for Japan right? That's 18 minimum possibly 19-20 points. Even with low placings in other fields, I think Japan should advance to FS, but I don't know enough to make an informed opinion. :)

ETA: It seems the Reeds will earn 1-2 points in Ice Dance, so that's minimum 19 and possibly 20-22 points.

In Pairs, according to odds, JPN is favored to finished ahead of GBR almost for sure, with a chance to beat FRA and smaller chance to beat ITA.
 

ImaginaryPogue

Record Breaker
Joined
Jun 3, 2009
Mao and Hanyu will skate SP for Japan right? That's 18 minimum possibly 19-20 points. Even with low placings in other fields, I think Japan should advance to FS, but I don't know enough to make an informed opinion. :)

ETA: It seems the Reeds will earn 1-2 points in Ice Dance, so that's minimum 19 and possibly 20-22 points.

In Pairs, according to odds, JPN is favored to finished ahead of GBR almost for sure, with a chance to beat FRA and smaller chance to beat ITA.

I'd expect that you'd need 23-25 points to realistically qualify for the Free. Using last season as a barometer and the Worlds SP as our data source, 23 points was what the fifth ranked team would get (Italy). Japan got 22 - Hanyu underperformed in the Worlds short.
 

TontoK

Hot Tonto
Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 28, 2013
Country
United-States
The other aspect I'm interested in seeing play out is pressure.

I've read that the pressure for a skater in the team event may be less... but I think it could be MORE.

How will skaters perform when they are carrying the burden of teammates' medal hopes, in addition to their own? It may not be the individual title on the line, but it's still an OGM.

I think I am in the minority, because I love the idea of the team event, and I'm intrigued by how different teams will play the game.
 
Joined
Jun 21, 2003
I agree with TontoK. I think this team thing is going to take off, at least in the countries that perennially have a good chance to win. Skating Federations will be kicking themselves if they hold out their best athletes to "rest" them and abandon the chance to go into the Olympic history books as the first winner of the event.
 

Layfan

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 5, 2009
Anybody know if any countries are taking advantage of this rule:

"However, in order to complete a team the NOCs, if necessary and applicable, can make one entry (for one discipline) according to the “Additional Athletes Quota”"

Is there any skater out there that didn't make it to the individual event that is getting a chance to go to the Olympics for the team event? That would be so cool.

Also, I agree that Mathman that the country federation will take the event seriously and that it has the potential to take off with time. I don't think it will be as pressure-packed as the individual competition - not this year anyway - but it does come first. No medal contender will want to bomb in the team event so publicly right before biggest skate of their life. The stress of the team event could sneak up on the athletes, who probably haven't been focusing on that most of the season.
 

Frenchie

I'm gonna customize the CRAP out of this title!
Medalist
Joined
May 4, 2013
Seems to me that the decision to let the ordinals decide and not the addition of the total points goes towards what Cinquanta has been advocating for: more drama. Even if it's to the detriment of sporting criteria, which was one of the main reasons to implement the new post-6.0 scoring system.
If 5 skaters' performances are virtually identical in the SP, why not award them with virtually the same marks and see how it goes?
Like this, if you're lucky, you can get 4 points out of 10 more than someone with virtually the same performance. If you're unlucky, it's 4 points less, maybe only due to a few hundredths of a point.
This "old way" of attributing points rewards those teams with serious "bombing potential", like Japan with it's Pair. Instead of getting an insurmountable point deficit to almost the entire field, they'll only lose 1 point to the team that's 1 position ahead, even if it's by a humongous amount of points - like it's most likely going to be.
 

ImaginaryPogue

Record Breaker
Joined
Jun 3, 2009
Anybody know if any countries are taking advantage of this rule:

"However, in order to complete a team the NOCs, if necessary and applicable, can make one entry (for one discipline) according to the “Additional Athletes Quota”"

Is there any skater out there that didn't make it to the individual event that is getting a chance to go to the Olympics for the team event? That would be so cool.

Also, I agree that Mathman that the country federation will take the event seriously and that it has the potential to take off with time. I don't think it will be as pressure-packed as the individual competition - not this year anyway - but it does come first. No medal contender will want to bomb in the team event so publicly right before biggest skate of their life. The stress of the team event could sneak up on the athletes, who probably haven't been focusing on that most of the season.

Great Britain didn't qualify a skater for men's, and will be using the Additional Athlete Quote. Japan is using the additional athlete quota because they didn't qualify a pairs skater. Otherwise, every nation has qualified in all four disciplines; either from Worlds or from Nebelhorn.
 
Joined
Jun 21, 2003
Seems to me that the decision to let the ordinals decide and not the addition of the total points goes towards what Cinquanta has been advocating for: more drama. Even if it's to the detriment of sporting criteria, which was one of the main reasons to implement the new post-6.0 scoring system.

If 5 skaters' performances are virtually identical in the SP, why not award them with virtually the same marks and see how it goes?

To me, that would be unsporting. In sports, you win…or you lose. Close doesn't count.
 

Layfan

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 5, 2009
Great Britain didn't qualify a skater for men's, and will be using the Additional Athlete Quote. Japan is using the additional athlete quota because they didn't qualify a pairs skater. Otherwise, every nation has qualified in all four disciplines; either from Worlds or from Nebelhorn.

Thanks, Very cool. Anything that lets us see more skating and more skaters is cool by me.
 

Buttercup

Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 25, 2008
Great Britain didn't qualify a skater for men's, and will be using the Additional Athlete Quote. Japan is using the additional athlete quota because they didn't qualify a pairs skater. Otherwise, every nation has qualified in all four disciplines; either from Worlds or from Nebelhorn.
Actually, Takahashi and Kihara made it as first alternates, since two qualified spots did not get used (the Estonians, as well as Popova/Massot for France). They'll do both TE and pairs.

This is a very important point you just made. For example, Russians having a stronger Pair than Canada is only true on paper. In reality. V/T will likely only skate the SP and with S/S of Germany not participating, at best Russia will be merely 1 spot higher than Canada in Pairs short of accidents given that the top team from China will not skate either and all the other better Pairs are all Russian who won't be able to skate due to V/T doing it. D/R will be able to hold on to 2nd place in the SP relatively easily. But V/T will not do the FS so even if D/R rests for the FS and pass the torch to M-T/M, they are still the next highest ranked team the in the world to skate the FS and have a decent chance of finishing 1st in the FS, erasing the 1 placement difference in Pairs between Canada and Russia. So the overall point spread from Pairs between Russia and Canada may very well turn out to be neutral. So when somebody in this thread made yet another self-proclaimed infaillable prediction that Canada will be 3rd in the Team Event because Russia has much superior Pair, clearly, that person was out of touch with reality.
I don't know about that. Look at the season's best list - the Chinese pair and Berton-Hotarek could beat the Canadians and even James/Cipres might have a shot at doing so (though that's less likely). But if V/T are doing the SP, I can't see anyone beating them. In this specific case, Russia really is vastly superior. What happens with the rest of the top places is a question mark.

Personally I imagine that Canada and Russia are locks - they are at least good in every discipline - and the third medal is up for grabs, with the US as frontrunners but not overwhelming ones. I think they may end up regretting their choice of pairs.

A key question is which countries will decide to make a serious play for this event and which might prefer to save their top skaters for the individual events a la Savchenko/Szolkowy.
 

ImaginaryPogue

Record Breaker
Joined
Jun 3, 2009
Actually, Takahashi and Kihara made it as first alternates, since two qualified spots did not get used (the Estonians, as well as Popova/Massot for France). They'll do both TE and pairs.


I don't know about that. Look at the season's best list - the Chinese pair and Berton-Hotarek could beat the Canadians and even James/Cipres might have a shot at doing so (though that's less likely). But if V/T are doing the SP, I can't see anyone beating them. In this specific case, Russia really is vastly superior. What happens with the rest of the top places is a question mark.

Personally I imagine that Canada and Russia are locks - they are at least good in every discipline - and the third medal is up for grabs, with the US as frontrunners but not overwhelming ones. I think they may end up regretting their choice of pairs.

A key question is which countries will decide to make a serious play for this event and which might prefer to save their top skaters for the individual events a la Savchenko/Szolkowy.

Ah. The ISU document (Communication 1839) does have Japan's pairs listed as "additional athletes." They might have been slotted that way before the Estonians and Popova/Massot removed themselves.
 

enlight78

Medalist
Joined
Nov 2, 2005
This has got me so excited, I wish the federations would announced who is going to skate the Team Event, I won't be surprise if they don't do it til Feb 5th
 

enlight78

Medalist
Joined
Nov 2, 2005
Japan announced it's team roster:

http://www.nikkansports.com/sochi2014/figureskate/news/p-sochi-tp0-20140121-1246921.html

Yuzuru Hanyu (SP), Tatsuki Machida (FS)
Mao Asada (SP), Akiko Suzuki (FS)
Narumi Takahashi & Ryuichi Kihara (SP+FS)
Cathy Reed & Chris Reed (SD+FD)

Murakami's chances of olympic medal are gone. Dai needs to kill it at the individual event to get his second medal. If Japan pulls up to bronze the freaking Reeds will be olympic medallists, oh well.

Wow, blows my mind, Never thought this would be their decision
 

enlight78

Medalist
Joined
Nov 2, 2005
This is from BBC Sport http://www.bbc.com/sport/0/winter-olympics/25306073

National champion Matthew Parr (pictured above) has been chosen by governing body the National Ice Skating Association and the British Olympic Association.

The other GB skaters, who all earned individual qualification alongside a place in the team event, are Penny Coomes and Nick Buckland (ice dance), Stacey Kemp and David King (pairs) and Jenna McCorkell in the women's event.
 

enlight78

Medalist
Joined
Nov 2, 2005
I wonder if this information is still valid. Didn't every nation decide to wait until the Feb 5 deadline for the team event roster?

Well Japan has no reason to hold off their announcement, they are not strong contenders for a Medal in the Team Event, and Dai and Kanako are both recovering from an injury, not surprise they would want to give them more rest, especially Dai going for GOLD and Kanako winning 4CC. Just thought Dai would do the short since he is there shining star and the short program wouldn't be that taxing on him.
 

TontoK

Hot Tonto
Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 28, 2013
Country
United-States
I wonder if this information is still valid. Didn't every nation decide to wait until the Feb 5 deadline for the team event roster?

Now don't quote me on this, because it is supposition.

I would imagine that the Feb 5 deadline applies to official submission of team rosters to the ISU or IOC.

There is nothing preventing the Japanese, or any other federation, announcing in advance their internal decision as to who to send. For that matter, there is nothing to prevent them from altering the roster before the official submission date.
 
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