I don't think Hanyu winning two medals would be a huge surprise.
^ I think it would be, given the pairs and ice dance holding him back from a team medal. However, him being in the top 3 in both team and individual events would certainly not be a surprise -- in fact, it's an expectation.
Gold - Canada
Silver - Russia
Bronze - US
China can really spoil Canada's chances of gold though with Li ahead of Osmond or P/T ahead of the Canadian pairs, so I'm sure the hope will be that they don't make the finals (which they probably won't given their ice dance team).
The crucial thing for the U.S team to challenge for the gold will be the pairs. They should do very well in the dance and ladies in the team event, and fairly well in the mens.
The crucial thing for the Canadian team will be the womens where they could lose alot of ground to the U.S and Russia.
The crucial thing for the Russian team will be the mens which is a real wild card for them at the moment.
Exactly. US has to limit the damage here.
Here's how the pairs could play out:
Russia - 10 pts
Canada - 9 pts
China - 8 pts
Italy - 7 pts
France - 6 pts
US - 5 pts
So... in this baseline scenario, Russia comes out 5 ahead of the US, and Canada comes out 4. I think that would severely damage US chances. Now... if the US pairs can beat some of the teams ahead, that prevents a catastrophic outcome... and maybe P/T beat the Canadians to further limit the bleeding... I think it is fascinating to play out all the different possibilities.
I think men's will still be critical for the US. Pairs is a bit of a toss-up for them so that's why I've put them 3rd, as I think that will deny the US team a gold, and without a great showing in men's they will be denied silver too.
I agree with Canadianskaterguy about the U.S. men. I think we have already decided where Castelini and Snapir will reasonably land, so they are in a great position. If they do better than expected, they are the heros. If they don't. oh well.
Davis and White will get 1 or 2, the ladies will chug into the station pretty much as expected. But will Jeremy Abbott score 90 in the short program or 70?
Last edited by Mathman; 01-27-2014 at 09:01 PM.
Asada's 3 X < , + Fall, + SEQ Free Skate was rated as "Phenomenal" based on the 130+ Score ) at the GPF this season, his scores have been quite mediocre where his average PCS is about 80. Furthermore, he pretty much fell or botched every single 4S attempt in competition. When Abbott won GPF, he got no where in the World Championship that season even though he was promptly crowned as the U.S. Champion. He is still a favorite to win a medal of some color though realistically, it's far from a sure bet.
Will Carolina skate in the team competition?
US is a clutch team like we have seen in the WTT though a different format. Somehow the American skaters will pull it out. I think Canada and Russia might be overranked a bit. Who knows where the Russian dancers will rank and or Plushy. He hasn't faced the Japanese, americans or Chan for the most part.