Last year Duhamel/Radford took almost the whole season to get to the point where they were completing all their difficulty relatively cleanly. It seems that the same may be happening this year too. So, I wouldn't assume that because they lost to Berton/Hotarek at Skate Canada in October (and not by much), that means the same would happen in the team competition at the Olympics in February. Maybe, maybe not
Re: Reynolds skating the free instead of Chan, that sounds like something that would have made sense after last year's worlds when Kevin was 5th (and few if any of the guys who placed ahead of them were likely to be in the free program in the team event anyway). Now, after all of Reynolds' boot problems and missed training it would be a pretty risky move.
Any skater/pair/couple is capable of sudden brilliance just as they are all capable of bombing. No one could predict Dennis Ten's sudden brilliance at the 2013 Worlds while almost everyone else bombed.
D/R has the advantage of higher BV than pretty much everyone else, including V/T and their tendency to peak towards the end of the season as evidenced by their most recent competition's protocols here:
A total of 6 clean Triple Lutzes, including two SBS and two successful throws were performed. 18 out of the 19 required elements were performed successfully. This is getting very close to their level at the 2013 World Championships. With Pang/Tong's absence, it is unlikely they can be challenged by the Italians or the 2nd/3rd rank Chinese teams short of substandard skate. Then again, since we can't predict who will skate up to their normal standard and who won't, I am limiting any speculation to merely potential just as I wouldn't use V/T's most recent disastrous FS to predict they will bomb the Olympic SP either.
Hanyu's Senior B titles are from two of the bigger ones - Nebelhorn and Finlandia. I'd consider those quality results, especially given his scores at Finlandia.
Anyway, his results match up pretty well with Patrick Chan's going into Vancouver; Chan had the 4CC win but not a GPF title, and the GP records and their ages are quite similar, though Hanyu's scores compared to the rest of the field are stronger than Chan's were four years ago. Chan was certainly considered a serious medal contender at the time (before an injury derailed that season for him) and I think he and Hanyu are the top contenders at this point.
Which probably means that Javi will win the OGM. Or Dai! I can live with those outcomes
Still, I maintain that this points system for the Team event is the same result structure than the old 6.0 system was for the individual competitions. You rely on placement and not marks. I thought even with the Men scoring higher points, just adding the points would still be fairer... But obviously those teams with the best Men won't agree with me!
I thought it was meant to be a big selling point of the new system that in the case of 7 men getting virtually identical scores after the SP, the unlucky 7th guy shouldn't be out of the race because he got 3.5 points for being 7th compared to the 0.5 points the 1st got.
Wow, Reynolds doing the FS? That is pretty surprising. I think it still is possible for him to do well given his sheer base value (assuming he at least rotates his quads), but that is a huge gamble, IMO, as he might not get the PCS points needed. Although if Chan were to bomb in the FS, that would probably not mentally help him going into the men's individual event either.
Thanks for the P/T update... indeed, that is a bit of a break on the Canadian pairs, particularly if Germany fail to make the finals (which is likely). Should hopefully be an easy 2nd place in the pairs event, but now with Reynolds skating instead of Chan, I'm wondering if the advantage is given up.
Anyone know if Osmond for sure is skating SP & FS or if Daleman is doing one of them?
We don't know who will be skating in Men's Team Event for Canada at this point. Skate Canada has indirectly confirmed Virtue/Moir and Osmond will do both segments. But as far as the men are concerned, it's being kept as a top secret.
There's a lot to sort out - the game theory part is interesting.
I understand why placements, rather then points are used, but I don't understand why the short and long programs are given the same weight. If winning the short is worth 10 points, why isn't winning the long worth 20? This would more closely reflect the relative importance of the two programs is other events