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Thread: Team Competition -- Who will win what medals?

  1. #61
    Yeah! Lets get this party started. enlight78's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by WalkingJackson View Post
    Will Carolina skate in the team competition?
    I don't think she will, if only Samuel Contesti would have stick it out one more year, Italy would have had a decent team

  2. #62
    Custom Title mmcdermott's Avatar
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    Last year Duhamel/Radford took almost the whole season to get to the point where they were completing all their difficulty relatively cleanly. It seems that the same may be happening this year too. So, I wouldn't assume that because they lost to Berton/Hotarek at Skate Canada in October (and not by much), that means the same would happen in the team competition at the Olympics in February. Maybe, maybe not

    Re: Reynolds skating the free instead of Chan, that sounds like something that would have made sense after last year's worlds when Kevin was 5th (and few if any of the guys who placed ahead of them were likely to be in the free program in the team event anyway). Now, after all of Reynolds' boot problems and missed training it would be a pretty risky move.

  3. #63
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    Quote Originally Posted by enlight78 View Post
    The way the Canadians have been skating it could be more like

    Russia - 10 pts
    China - 9 pts
    Italy - 8 pts
    Canada - 7 pts
    France - 6 pts
    US - 5 pts

    Also if France and China man skate well, that push down who ever skates for the US.
    Trying to predict who will skate well and who won't is like trying to predict the voters' turnout in any given election - meaning there is simply no way to make a reliable prediction.

    Any skater/pair/couple is capable of sudden brilliance just as they are all capable of bombing. No one could predict Dennis Ten's sudden brilliance at the 2013 Worlds while almost everyone else bombed.

    D/R has the advantage of higher BV than pretty much everyone else, including V/T and their tendency to peak towards the end of the season as evidenced by their most recent competition's protocols here:

    Duhamel/Radford's SP

    Duhamel/Radford's FS

    A total of 6 clean Triple Lutzes, including two SBS and two successful throws were performed. 18 out of the 19 required elements were performed successfully. This is getting very close to their level at the 2013 World Championships. With Pang/Tong's absence, it is unlikely they can be challenged by the Italians or the 2nd/3rd rank Chinese teams short of substandard skate. Then again, since we can't predict who will skate up to their normal standard and who won't, I am limiting any speculation to merely potential just as I wouldn't use V/T's most recent disastrous FS to predict they will bomb the Olympic SP either.

  4. #64
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    Quote Originally Posted by wallylutz View Post
    I think he would be lucky if he gets one - the only wins he ever had was a Gold at NHK in 2012 and the GPF in 2013, excluding Senior B which are not very relevant, never won a single ISU Championship, losing to Kevin Reynolds at 4CC. Aside from the highly questionable scoring (e.g. here : Asada's 3 X < , + Fall, + SEQ Free Skate was rated as "Phenomenal" based on the 130+ Score ) at the GPF this season, his scores have been quite mediocre where his average PCS is about 80. Furthermore, he pretty much fell or botched every single 4S attempt in competition. When Abbott won GPF, he got no where in the World Championship that season even though he was promptly crowned as the U.S. Champion. He is still a favorite to win a medal of some color though realistically, it's far from a sure bet.
    Hanyu is on a roll and has developed. He certainly won't be beaten by Reynolds this year espeically since Reyonolds has had little training and competition due to boot problems. Hanyu really has the goods right now and the confidence. Fernandez has had a lot of problems and Patrick has limited scoring potential as he has not upped the ante technically. Abbott could be on or off - one wonders if Katarina Witt gave the old evil soap eye if Abbott would crumble

  5. #65
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    Quote Originally Posted by wallylutz View Post
    I think he would be lucky if he gets one - the only wins he ever had was a Gold at NHK in 2012 and the GPF in 2013, excluding Senior B which are not very relevant.
    He also won Cup of Russia 2011

    Back to the thread - I think gold'll go to Russia, silver to Canada and bronze to USA (maybe China, Italy?). Too bad that Japan has mediocore pair :( and average ice dance pair....

  6. #66
    leave no stone unturned seniorita's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman View Post
    True, true. But Patrick Chan can't win all the medals. Someone has to get silver and bronze.

  7. #67
    Off the ice Buttercup's Avatar
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    Hanyu's Senior B titles are from two of the bigger ones - Nebelhorn and Finlandia. I'd consider those quality results, especially given his scores at Finlandia.

    Anyway, his results match up pretty well with Patrick Chan's going into Vancouver; Chan had the 4CC win but not a GPF title, and the GP records and their ages are quite similar, though Hanyu's scores compared to the rest of the field are stronger than Chan's were four years ago. Chan was certainly considered a serious medal contender at the time (before an injury derailed that season for him) and I think he and Hanyu are the top contenders at this point.

    Which probably means that Javi will win the OGM. Or Dai! I can live with those outcomes

  8. #68
    I'm gonna Customize the CRAP out of this Title!!! Frenchie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Buttercup View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Frenchie View Post
    I see what you mean, but shouldn't "Team" event suggest that it's the team's overall performance that should decide in the end? In Ski jumping, the team event is decided by adding each team member's points. Same with a relay, be it in Biathlon or Swimming: they don't do 4 separate races with a point system, but it's the added time of all the team that counts.
    What I mean is that the fear of "bombing" a competition should be similar to what it is in the individual event: you're far off the lead if you bomb.
    Concrete numerical example for the Mathman:
    Team A: 90+70+70+70 points after SP = 300 points
    Team B: 91+71+71+40 = 273 points
    I'd like Team A to be in the lead over Team B. With the points system as it is, team B is far ahead, if the category where Team B got only 40 points had some other teams score more than 70.

    This only works if you find a way to factor the scores so that a country that has an amazing lady will be on equal footing with a country that has an amazing man (where scores, and differences between scores, are potentially larger). Also you have to figure out how to account for the PCS, because these tend to be higher in some disciplines than others, and dance PCS are factored differently. And it introduces potential unfairness because judging panels can score relatively high or low, and just adding points favors countries who happen to be strong in the friendly-panel disciplines. Basically, you address one type of unfairness by creating others.
    Quote Originally Posted by wallylutz View Post
    The challenge of adding up all the points in lieu of placement points is that the factored scoring of the various disciplines are inherently inequitable. Namely, Ladies' PCS is at 80% of what Men get. A top male skater can potentially rack up close to 300 points in total whereas a lady who can break 200 in total is already super impressive. Yet, the man will still net a whopping 50% more points than a top lady, giving the men's event a disproportionally higher influence on the final outcome.
    You guys are right, I didn't consider the effect the higher Men's score would have on the balance - although I did acknowledge that difference since that was the obvious 90 in my example!
    Still, I maintain that this points system for the Team event is the same result structure than the old 6.0 system was for the individual competitions. You rely on placement and not marks. I thought even with the Men scoring higher points, just adding the points would still be fairer... But obviously those teams with the best Men won't agree with me!

    I thought it was meant to be a big selling point of the new system that in the case of 7 men getting virtually identical scores after the SP, the unlucky 7th guy shouldn't be out of the race because he got 3.5 points for being 7th compared to the 0.5 points the 1st got.

  9. #69
    Tripping on the Podium
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    Quote Originally Posted by enlight78 View Post
    I don't think she will, if only Samuel Contesti would have stick it out one more year, Italy would have had a decent team
    why would'nt she? great change for a trial run before the ladies event start and a chance to iron out any kinks.

  10. #70
    Celebrating the Excellence of #VirtueMoir golden411's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by wallylutz View Post
    A lot of top Pairs are skipping the Team Event for obvious reasons, even V/T are moaning about having to do it. ...
    I do not claim to be up to date, but didn't Volosozhar/Trankov say outright at one point that they would not compete in the team event?

  11. #71
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    Quote Originally Posted by golden411 View Post
    I do not claim to be up to date, but didn't Volosozhar/Trankov say outright at one point that they would not compete in the team event?
    I think they did say they will skate short program. This is a olympic medal after all. I don't think russians and canadians are going to skip team pairs event. If they are, this is good news for Italians.

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    Wow, Reynolds doing the FS? That is pretty surprising. I think it still is possible for him to do well given his sheer base value (assuming he at least rotates his quads), but that is a huge gamble, IMO, as he might not get the PCS points needed. Although if Chan were to bomb in the FS, that would probably not mentally help him going into the men's individual event either.

    Thanks for the P/T update... indeed, that is a bit of a break on the Canadian pairs, particularly if Germany fail to make the finals (which is likely). Should hopefully be an easy 2nd place in the pairs event, but now with Reynolds skating instead of Chan, I'm wondering if the advantage is given up.

    Anyone know if Osmond for sure is skating SP & FS or if Daleman is doing one of them?

  13. #73
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    Wow, Reynolds doing the FS? That is pretty surprising. I think it still is possible for him to do well given his sheer base value (assuming he at least rotates his quads), but that is a huge gamble, IMO, as he might not get the PCS points needed. Although if Chan were to bomb in the FS, that would probably not mentally help him going into the men's individual event either. Thanks for the P/T update... indeed, that is a bit of a break on the Canadian pairs, particularly if Germany fail to make the finals (which is likely). Should hopefully be an easy 2nd place in the pairs event, but now with Reynolds skating instead of Chan, I'm wondering if the advantage is given up.

    Anyone know if Osmond for sure is skating SP & FS or if Daleman is doing one of them?
    http://www.goldenskate.com/forum/sho...l=1#post832364

    We don't know who will be skating in Men's Team Event for Canada at this point. Skate Canada has indirectly confirmed Virtue/Moir and Osmond will do both segments. But as far as the men are concerned, it's being kept as a top secret.

  14. #74
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    There's a lot to sort out - the game theory part is interesting.

    I understand why placements, rather then points are used, but I don't understand why the short and long programs are given the same weight. If winning the short is worth 10 points, why isn't winning the long worth 20? This would more closely reflect the relative importance of the two programs is other events

  15. #75
    Yeah! Lets get this party started. enlight78's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by WalkingJackson View Post
    why would'nt she? great change for a trial run before the ladies event start and a chance to iron out any kinks.
    Because she rarely skates clean and probably want focus on the individual even, but it might be a great chance to get more miles under her new program

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