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Thread: Team Competition -- Who will win what medals?

  1. #76
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    Quote Originally Posted by ivy View Post
    There's a lot to sort out - the game theory part is interesting.

    I understand why placements, rather then points are used, but I don't understand why the short and long programs are given the same weight. If winning the short is worth 10 points, why isn't winning the long worth 20? This would more closely reflect the relative importance of the two programs is other events
    Short is actually worth more, since you can't finish worse than 5th in the long program (so just for stepping on the ice you get six points).

    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    I am not sure if this whole Team thing will last. I could see it being a one off thing like the reinstated pros. It will depend how successful it ends up being I guess.
    I doubt the team event is going anywhere, though I wouldn't be surprised to see the format change. Historically international federations don't give up medal events easily. Even if the team event doesn't work out they will just try another format for PyeongChang.

  2. #77
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    Quote Originally Posted by golden411 View Post
    I do not claim to be up to date, but didn't Volosozhar/Trankov say outright at one point that they would not compete in the team event?
    You might be thinking of Ingo Steuer re: S/S. He said that he informed the German federation that they would not be participating in the team event.

    Megan Duhamel and Maxim Trankov have both been quoted saying they only wanted to skate the short program in the team event.

    In an interview, Ondrej Hotarek actually spoke pretty eloquently about the mixed emotions he felt about the team event (as not quite a top top tier skater and involved in the individual event scheduled closest to it)

  3. #78
    Celebrating the Excellence of #VirtueMoir golden411's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ImaginaryPogue View Post
    You might be thinking of Ingo Steuer re: S/S. He said that he informed the German federation that they would not be participating in the team event.

    Megan Duhamel and Maxim Trankov have both been quoted saying they only wanted to skate the short program in the team event.

    In an interview, Ondrej Hotarek actually spoke pretty eloquently about the mixed emotions he felt about the team event (as not quite a top top tier skater and involved in the individual event scheduled closest to it)
    Well, I really was thinking of Volosozhar/Trankov. (I was aware all along of Savchenko/Szolkowy's plan to skip the team event.)

    But appreciate the correction that V/T are willing to skate the team SP. Sorry for my error.

  4. #79
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    Quote Originally Posted by Near View Post
    Short is actually worth more, since you can't finish worse than 5th in the long program (so just for stepping on the ice you get six points).


    I doubt the team event is going anywhere, though I wouldn't be surprised to see the format change. Historically international federations don't give up medal events easily. Even if the team event doesn't work out they will just try another format for PyeongChang.
    For skating enthusiasts this is great to have a team event but I have to say Canada is foolish to let Reynolds skate. Maybe last year but he is very very iffy and undoubtedly would likely cause Canada a spot or two on the medals. ptrick has said he will skate both if asked. And peole keep on saying about getting tired. If they wer epracticing surely one skate would be at least expected them once if not twice ad ay. Dance and pairs have a good week to wait I believe anyways. It is not like they are asked to run a marathon consecutively. think about running and swimming they do multiple heats in a day in a competition.

  5. #80
    Custom Title skateluvr's Avatar
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    I'm afraid the team event will really mess things up for the top athlete's hopes. It isn't fair that just a few countries can do this. YuNa can rest easy I guess. I think it will be major stress for many skaters. I don't like it in Olympics.

  6. #81
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    I think russia and Canada in particular have to be careful not to give up too many points ie. using Weaver and Poje will cost at least a point if not 2 or 3, likewise Reynolds likely will cost a couple of points at least- say they lost 5 points that is easily a medal position or two.

  7. #82
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    It's tough to predict without knowing the entire rosters for the teams, but playing out different scenarios in my head, I have to agree with Skater Boy.

    I don't see the team competition being a runaway, and I think it'll be down to the wire.

    I also think it will be much more thrilling, for the skaters and for the viewers, than some here are predicting.

  8. #83
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    Quote Originally Posted by skateluvr View Post
    I'm afraid the team event will really mess things up for the top athlete's hopes. It isn't fair that just a few countries can do this. YuNa can rest easy I guess. I think it will be major stress for many skaters. I don't like it in Olympics.
    A olympic medal can take some pressure off too. Gold, Sotnikova and Lipnitskaia probably going to be olympic medalist before ladies event, unlike Suzuki and Kostner. This can help them in the individual event.

  9. #84
    In search of a summer sport to love <3 desertskates's Avatar
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    I'm thinking Russia, Canada, and the US.
    I'm really curious about the US line-up. I'd like to see Ashley do the long for two reasons. She can get that free skate out there and because for Gracie to skate so well at nationals, team event and the ladies' event is liking asking lightning to strike in the same place three times. I've really warmed up to her skating this year, but her consistency is untested so far.

  10. #85
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    Quote Originally Posted by desertskates View Post
    I'm thinking Russia, Canada, and the US.
    I'm really curious about the US line-up. I'd like to see Ashley do the long for two reasons. She can get that free skate out there and because for Gracie to skate so well at nationals, team event and the ladies' event is liking asking lightning to strike in the same place three times. I've really warmed up to her skating this year, but her consistency is untested so far.
    I agree Gracie should do the SP. Doing the LP just gives her more time to make mistakes plus Gracie is more of a SP skater. If she skates clean she will get a big score.

  11. #86
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    I don't know. I worry about Ashley's stamina. I think she should save her energy for the single events. I think Polina or Ashley the SP and Gracie the LP.

  12. #87
    Former figure skater and HUGE figure skating fan. n_halifax's Avatar
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    I may be a bit biased being from Canada, but I think our team will have a GREAT chance to medal. I think Russia and the U.S. will prove the biggest competition, but I think France and Japan might be teams to watch too.

  13. #88
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    I just did a breakdown how I think the results in each program might go, to get a rough summary how the final results might go.

    Pairs short

    1. Russia
    2. Canada (Duhamel & Radford)
    3. China
    4. Italy
    5. France
    6. United States
    7. Germany
    8. Japan
    9. Ukraine
    10. Great Britian

    Points of the major contenders at this point: Russia 10, Canada 9, China 8, Italy 7, United States 5, Japan 3


    Short dance

    1. United States
    2. Canada
    3. Russia
    4. France
    5. Italy
    6. Great Britain
    7. Germany
    8. Japan
    9. China
    10. Ukraine

    Russia and Canada now both have 18 points. United States has 15. France and Italy have 13. China has 10. Japan has 6.

    Ladies short

    1. Japan
    2. Russia
    3. United States
    4. Italy
    5. Canada
    6. China
    7. France
    8. Ukraine
    9. Germany.
    10. Great Britian

    Russia now has 27 points. Canada has 24. United States 23. Italy 20. France 17. Japan 16. China 15.


    Mens short

    1. Japan
    2. Canada
    3. United States
    4. Russia
    5. China
    6. France
    7. Germany
    8. Ukraine
    9. Italy
    10. Great Britian

    Points at this juncture- Russia 34, Canada 33, United States 31. Japan 26 and Italy and France both have 22, so I guess it would come down to point totals to determine which makes it (most likely something of the placings above will be wrong and one will make it directly). China I have projected at 21, so they could easily make it. It looks like Japan really should make the Team Final though.


    Long programs

    Pairs

    1. Russia (Stolbova & Klimov)
    2. Canada (Moore-Towers & Moscovitch)
    3. Italy
    4. United States
    5. Japan

    Russia now has 44 points, Canada 42, and United States 38. Japan has 32, and Italy 28.


    Dance

    1. United States
    2. Canada
    3. Russia
    4. Italy
    5. Japan

    Russia now has 52 points, and Canada 51. United States with 48. Japan has 38 and Italy 35.


    Ladies

    1. Russia
    2. Japan (Suzuki)
    3. Italy
    4. United States (Wagner)
    5. Canada

    Russia now has 62 points. Canada 57. United States 55. Japan has 47. Italy 43.

    Men

    1. Japan (Machida)
    2. United States (Abbott or Brown)
    3. Russia
    4. Canada
    5. Italy

    Russia now has 70 points. Canada has 64. United States 64. Japan has 57. Italy 49.


    Looking at it more in depth now I would have to say Russia is now my pick for the gold. I think using Reynolds in place of Chan plan though might be scrapped if they are trailing the Russians. Looking at it more in depth now I am not sure if Canada can even use Reynolds if they want to win.

  14. #89
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    This is a great baseline analysis! It makes it easy to "gameplay."

    As we've posted before, Team USA has got to find a way to place higher than expected in the pairs events to have any chance at all. Maybe the ladies can pick off the Russians in one of the events.

    Even then, it will be a slim chance.

    I also think you're right about Chan. He almost HAS to skate both programs for Canada to win.

  15. #90
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    I just realized this event starts in a WEEK!!!!!

    The Olympics are so close I really can't believe we don't have official rosters for this event yet.

    Does anyone know when athletes start arriving to the village? I wonder how early in advance they're allowed to be there.

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