Who will skate in the team event

Your welcome

For your consideration:
Abbott this year-
Highest gp L.P. this year 158.63 NHK
Highest gp Sp this year 78.73 NHK
Highest international LP ever 159.96 from 2008-2009 season
Highest international Sp this ever 86.98 wtt 2012

Brown
Highest GP LP this year: 158.32 TEB
Highest GP sp this year: 84.77 TEB

Frankly, I'd have a hard time assigning Jeremy to the LP. Just as Brown lacks a quad, Abbott seems to lose spin and step levels, has no 3/1/3 combination, and seldom manages to do any 3/3 combinations. And he often falls or pops on his LP quad-which is why his planned LP combos are 3a3t, 3f2t and 3/2/2 ; he has to take care to avoid zayaking.

I do believe a
Abbott Sp/ Brown Lp
Wagner Sp/ Gold Lp
would be U.S. best hope for a Team Medal

Skater Boy said:

I really do not see the US using Polina for the team sorry to say. what if Jeremy, Polina and the pairs imploded and they didn`t somehow make the top 5 - this would be the hugest and most epic upset. But that could happen . though I think the States could win gold they are a very vulnerable team

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Skating in the team SP will certainly be a lot of pressure. At this point though, it's unclear to me who could handle it better, Polina or Ashley? Polina didn't impode at nationals. Ashley did. Both of them are capable of being fierce competitors in my eyes, they just need to tap into it.

Team figure skating lineups shrouded in secrecy

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/spor...-lineups-shrouded-in-secrecy/article16394377/

Globe and Mail said:

But there is much secrecy surrounding the new event, which begins one day before the opening ceremony. Because it’s never been done before, countries are watching each other closely – and suspiciously – to discern the strategies other teams may use, and which skaters will be called upon to skate certain events.

Canadian officials refuse to discuss where key skaters – such as Patrick Chan – will be employed, concerned that it could tip off rival countries such as Russia, the United States and Japan.

“We’ve come up with our scenarios of what we want to do,” said Michael Slipchuk, high-performance director for Skate Canada, noting that he’ll probably wait until the Feb. 5 deadline to disclose his roster. “We’re starting to get some ideas trickling through of what other countries are doing, just kind of by slip of the mouth.”

[...]

Then there is the worry of tiring out your best skaters. As a contender for gold in the men’s individual event, Chan would give Canada a huge advantage if he skated both the short and long programs in the team competition. But Canadian officials have to worry about wearing out Chan for his individual events, which happen about five days later.

“It’s hard to say what will happen,” Chan said about the strategizing. “Because it’s a huge unknown, nobody has any previous experience. We’re kind of the pioneers. So that’s the hard part, we’re going to be taking a bit of a leap of faith.”

Even though he faces huge pressure to deliver in his individual event, Chan said the thought of not competing in the team skate never crossed his mind.

[...]

There have been rumblings that skaters from some countries may avoid the team event to focus on their individual medal chases. However, Canada is a united front. If any skater tried to opt out of the team push for a medal, “they’re going to get a stern talking to,” said Scott Moir, one half of the defending gold medal ice dance team with Tessa Virtue. “For us, multiple medals at an Olympics doesn’t exist. So to have that opportunity, we’re incredibly grateful.”

Virtue said she isn’t fazed about doubling her Olympic workload. “I think it’s all about preparedness,” Virtue said. “We do harder things in training than we’ll ever do in competition, so by the time we get to Sochi, the competition days are the easy days.”

Top-ranked Canada is icing one of the deepest squads in the world, with talent in every discipline. In addition to Chan, Virtue and Moir, Canada is a medal contender in pairs with Meagan Duhamel and Eric Radford. Even in the women’s individual event, where 18-year-old Kaetlyn Osmond is aiming for a top-eight finish at her first Olympics, her ability to produce bonanza scores will be an advantage in the team competition. Osmond hopes the team event will help settle her before her individual programs.

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Contrary to what was previously rumored, there is no definite lineup or roster set for Canada yet. Anything that is out there right now is merely speculation. Tessa Virtue and Scott Moir have always had this very competitive spirit - they never shy away from competing and it's plainly evident in what they said. In fact, anyone who even thinks about shying away would likely face the wrath of Scott Moir who is the captain for Team Canada in Figure Skating. They have a chance to make history by becoming the first Ice Dance couple to win 3 times Olympic Gold medal in Figure Skating, therefore, it's plainly evident they will give their 110%.

As for Kaetlyn Osmond, this is a great opportunity for her to compete at her first Olympic Games surrounded and supported by her decorated team mates who are among the favorites of their individual disciplines. She can draw on their strengths, making this event a little less stressful and just go out and do her best. Most of these girls who will be competing, including Mao Asada, Akiko Suzuki, Gracie Gold, Adelina Sotnikova and others, she has already best them one way or the other before. If the Team Events goes well, it will boost her own standings for her individual event in the eyes of the judges. There is no better introduction to the Olympics and the whole world for her than this Team Event.

I have to smile at the part about keeping a suspicious eye on other countries. Who cares what other countries do? Send your strongest team.

If you don't, you might get a stern talking to from Scott Moir. :yes:

Canada:
Ladies - Osmond for both programs
Men - Chan for both programs
Pairs - MT/M for short, Duhamel/Radford for long
Dance - Virtue/Moir for both programs

USA:
Ladies - Wagner for short, Gold for long
Men - Abbott for short, Brown for long
Pairs - Castelli/Shnapir for both programs
Dance - Davis/White for both programs

I'm finding the shroud of secrecy the U.S. is imposing over their lineup almost funny. Poor Madison Chock said on her teleconference that she was excited to watch before there was a ton of inaudible whispering and she started nervously backepdaling and talking about WTT. Meryl & Charlie explictly said they couldn't talk about the lineup even though they are the most obvious lock for both segments. Marissa & Simon kept reiterating that they aren't aware of whether they're skating and that its up to USFSA. I get not revealing the whole line-up and the long/short breakdown but this gag order on even the most obvious participants seems a bit much.

It would be sort of amusing if all kept silent for their own benefit - and then, when all is revealed, it turns out that they'd outmanoevered themselves. I mean, it has to happen to someone or other, right?

As for Patrick Chan, it certainly won't matter to the Russians whichever segment he skates in - not so as to influence their choices, as they have none. Will it matter to the American men? I don't really see either of them beating him, so why does it matter? Maybe I just don't have a head for intrigue, and am missing the obvious.

Tessa&Scott said:

Canada:
Ladies - Osmond for both programs
Men - Chan for both programs
Pairs - MT/M for short, Duhamel/Radford for long
Dance - Virtue/Moir for both programs

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This is for sure the strongest team if they want to maximize points. And given it's the inaugural team competition and Russia will be sending their biggest guns (I doubt they'll choose not to submit V/T for both SP and FS and risk entering S/K or B/L) then Canada needs to send their strongest team possible for the most points possible. Other countries who don't have a medal prospect should certainly feel at liberty to not send their strongest skaters, because it's pointless tiring out your skaters just to get 5th place.

As for your US picks, I'd have Gold do the SP and Wagner do the LP.

pangtongfan said:

I agree but Michael Slipchuk has already said Virtue & Moir will skate both programs. Totally unfair IMO as W&P are completely capable of contributing and would save V&M some energy. He has also said Reynolds will skate a program which IMO is not at all a good idea.

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Really? I don't think having Reynolds skate a program is wise because even a Chan with errors is worth more than a REynolcs especially a Reynolds who hasn't practiced much. One would think Chan would do the short because the worst Reynolds can be fifth but if he gets to skate he is one lucky person otherwise he wouldn't be near a medal. But he could be the reason Canada doesn'te get gold or silver.

Actually now that I think about it more having Reynolds switch with Chan might more sense than W&P. The teams in the final could easily end up being Canada, U.S, France, Russia, Italy. W&P could even end up coming last in the FD of that group, while V&M could end up 1st. At worst V&M would be 2nd, and W&P probably would be 4th. If those are the countries that make the final Reynolds could potentially win if he has a great performance, and probably would be no lower than 4th. Probably the difference in V&M and W&P would be 2-4 points and Chan vs Reynolds more like 1-3. Ironically if Japan made the final round though Chan could potentially lose to the Japanese skater, just as Reynolds could potentially beat him (especialy if it isnt Hanyu). Obviously Chan can lose to Hanyu, Takahashi, or even Machida, and has before (not Machida yet), while Reynolds beat Hanyu and Takahashi in Japan last year to win 4CCs, albeit it would be far more unlikely for him to beat Hanyu now even on a bad day. So it would even make more sense to have the switch as opposed to V&M vs W&P. W&P are likely to place higher in the individual competition than Reynolds probably at this point, but in a team format Reynolds might make more sense to use than W&P.

Why are we even talking about Weaver and Poje. Didn't Scott Moir go on about how he is going to give a good tongue-lashing to anyone who shirks his duty to field the best team possible for Canada? That means V&M twice, Chan twice, Osmond twice. Anything less is downright unpatriotic.

As for resting up for the individual competitions, did they come to rest or did they come to skate?

This article provides more light than anything else I've seen on how the US will pick its lineup.

http://www.nbcolympics.com/news/who-will-represent-us-team-figure-skating-event

Highlights:
-All skaters needed to submit intent to U.S. Figure Skating in December if they were interested in doing two programs, one program or no programs in the team event.
-The USFS ICMS ranks the four disciplines based on their “opportunity to medal and/or provide the strongest field in the individual events.” The top-ranked discipline (presumably dance) will get first choice of subbing out. U.S. Figure Skating will keep those rankings internal. The skaters will also be ranked within their disciplines.
-The top-ranked skater(s) will get first choice of which program(s) they would like to enter. They could enter both programs, one program or no programs. Whatever’s left over goes to the second-ranked skater and then the third-ranked skater.

Based on this, it seems the preference of Meryl & Charlie, Gracie & Jeremy will have a lot of control over the lineup.
-Davis & White & USFSA have likely agreed to do both programs based on Madison Chock's comment that she was excited to watch the team competition. The dance event is spaced out pretty far from the team event and they seem unlikely to be phased by competing a week later again.
-Gracie has said she thinks it might be good to let two ladies split the team comp and that her preference is the free. Based on that, I would expect Gracie will do the free. And I would have imagined Ashley would do the short but if they go by 1-2-3 rankings, I suppose it could be Polina. My money though is on Ashley in the SP based on the internal rankings that appear to be based on a similar criteria to the selection process.
-Not sure what Jeremy will opt to do. If USFSA is smart, they will encourage/force him to split with Jason. Hopefully Jason does the LP based on the fact that he won the free at Nationals and that Riverdance should be televised as much as possible during the games. But I could see Jeremy requesting to do the free. Not sure what they'll do.
-With no splits remaining, Marissa & Simon would then get both programs. (I am so happy its them- I could not live with Caydee Denney, Olympic medalist, if they had won Nats).

Mathematically, it makes more sense for Jeremy to do the short because he has a quad and can contend with the top men there, earning more points. There's also less chances for him to mess up. In the long, there's more room for error BUT Jason is much more capable of making up points here due to his PCS and skating skills. He also is unlikely to choke; only has one problem jump (3A) but the rest is quite solid.

Since Jeremy is a possible medal contender in the individual, if I were his coach I would encourage him to skate just the short in the team event so he has the most days off before the individual SP.

Of course, I'm also an uber Jason fan and I desperately want him to skate in the team event so that might be clouding my judgement. But there you go, lol.

flutzy13 said:

The USFS ICMS ranks the four disciplines based on their “opportunity to medal and/or provide the strongest field in the individual events.” The top-ranked discipline (presumably dance) will get first choice of subbing out. U.S. Figure Skating will keep those rankings internal. The skaters will also be ranked within their disciplines.
-The top-ranked skater(s) will get first choice of which program(s) they would like to enter. They could enter both programs, one program or no programs. Whatever’s left over goes to the second-ranked skater and then the third-ranked skater.

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I would think everyone would want to do one program and not two. Based on this, it looks like we would have substitutions in Dance and Ladies since those presumably would get the first choice of subbing. Many will be sad if Jason can't participate.

drivingmissdaisy said:

I would think everyone would want to do one program and not two. Based on this, it looks like we would have substitutions in Dance and Ladies since those presumably would get the first choice of subbing. Many will be sad if Jason can't participate.

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I don't foresee Meryl & Charlie skating only one program. Especially as its been widely rumored V/M will do both. Meryl & Charlie provide the US with the best chance to guarantee bronze and to capitalize if other countries falter. Further, the dance event is not nearly as close as the Men's event.

Do the federations have to determine who'll skate the FS if they advance to the second round even before the SP's are done? I thought they'd have time for that until the SP's are over. That means the countrys might plan out different strategies for the different possible SP outcomes.

I wonder how some of the federations are playing these games. Maybe some teams would even prefer not to make it to the LPs. If I was part of the JSF for example, I'd flat out tell my skaters they can give a rat's *** about the outcome and should just take that as a low-pressure opportunity to get used to olympic ice. If his stamina holds up, that might be a huge advantage for Hanyu, who's still a first time Olympian. If participating in the team event is an advantage or disadvantage depents largely on how you use it I guess. For someone like Chan, who'll go in with the pressure to skate well to capture the team gold, it might be mentally exhausting additionally to physically. Then again, already getting a gold medal before your own event could be a real confidence booster.

My guess as of now is that Russia will split the Pairs and the Ladies, with V/T doing the SP and S/K the LP (especially after Euros) and Sotnikova doing the SP and Lipnitskaya the LP (this isn't much of a guess but probably a no-brainer, but oh well...). Liptniskaya could do both, but I'd say they want Sotnikova to get the additional experience and have both their potential-medalist ladies to go into their individual events already being Olympic medalists. I/K are looking too mistake prone, and B/S had a huge political push this season. Spliting the pairs would be a good idea because of the close individual event and since S/K should be able to do well in the LP portion. Although of course S/K are more likely to be beaten by the Canadian pair, and since it's Russia vs Canada for the gold, this might already be a diciding factor.

D/W will probably do both programs, especially if teams like France or Italy make it to the LP (same logic goes for V/M). Since Gold already said she'd like to split the events, I guess they'll do so. But I have no idea who'll do the SP and who the LP. Gold said she'd prefer the LP, but she has higher scoring potential in the SP than Wagner, and the SP is more important. So I think Gold doing the SP and Wagner the LP would be best. With the american pairs not having a chance for the individual medals, they could have one team skate both programs. I'd prefer that and have both Abbott and Brown in the mens, but I'm not sure that's what they'll do. I like Abbott, but given his inconsistencies, I think he should just do the SP. Brown is more consistent (and I just really want him to get that team medal), but Abbott does have the higher scoring potential.

Canada will have V/M and Osmond do both. While it's probably tiring, I guess doing both would be good for Osmond too, since she missed a lot of this season due to injury. It's a good chance to show her programs to international judges, hopefully she's completely recovered and her stamina keeps up. The pairs will be split and I guess it's D/R for the SP and M-T/M for the LP. Makes more sense after the GPF SP. So Canada could split the mens event, but I'm not sure they should. Chan is one of the few skaters who, IMO, would have the stamina to pull off both the SP and LP and still be fit for the individual event. Especially if Japan and China make the FS, I think he should do the LP. I like Reynolds, but he's been out all season and I think he'd have a hard time beating Machida. Maybe not Plushenko either, and Brown/Abbott could potentially beat Reynolds, but not Chan. Han Yan is hard to asses, but if he has a good day... if the final 5 are Russia, USA, Canada, Japan and China (or maybe France), Chan would very likely be 1st, and Reynolds might even be 5th.

With the top 3 countries being so obvious, I guess some of the other teams won't send their strongest skaters, like Kostner for Italy, additionally to S/S and P/T not going (which will probably annoy Russia to no end). I don't want to wish any skaters ill, but it would be interesting to see what would happen if one of the top teams bomb. USA does look vulnerable - Abbott and Gold could (again, I don't say it's likely nor that I want this to happen) bomb and with their pair not being that strong, maybe that would be enough to potentially loose the bronze? It's not likely, and it's probably just going to be Russia vs Canada for gold, USA in 3rd with some margin in both directions, and whatever team in 4th and 5th because none of them will really have tried. But I have to admit I'd enjoy the drama upstaging all the scheming and politiking going on now.

Li'Kitsu said:

Do the federations have to determine who'll skate the FS if they advance to the second round even before the SP's are done?

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No, they do not.

golden411 said:

No, they do not.

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Thanks! That makes it even harder to say who'll skate the LPs.